Trump says he hopes market crashes in 2024 under Biden: 'I don't want to be Herbert Hoover'
'We have an economy that's so fragile, and the only reason it's running now is it's running off the fumes of what we did - what the Trump administration [did], it's just running off the fumes. And when there's a crash, I hope it's going to be during this next 12 months, because I don't want to be Herbert Hoover.'
Herbert Hoover was president when U.S. stocks crashed in 1929.
~bella
We are very late in the business cycle, and inflation is still a problem (sticky)
Equities are overvalued, especially tech stocks
Real estate is in a full-blown bubble
labor market is weakening, although still relatively strong (unemployment rate has climbed for 3 straight months). Earnings have been mixed
consumers are carrying record debt
so we are running on fumes to some degree. But the rest of the world is doing worse, so the US is a bit of a safe-haven
here is what could cause a major correction or crash:
1. The Federal Reserve elects NOT to cut rates in September --and I think there is a 50% chance of that. Powell does not want to be seen as influencing the election, and he is still worried about inflation. That will send the stock market tumbling 10-20%
2. A flood of bad earnings reports, declining consumer confidence and spending, combined with #1 above
3. Something happening overseas, like an escalation in Ukraine, leading to a spike in oil prices
So Trump could inherit a big mess for sure