Democrats - How does Biden win?

[Malleeboy]

Purely looking at that state polls, to get to 270

Biden has to maintain lead in

WI 0.8% lead
MN 2% lead
NH 3% lead

He also has to win
MI 2.2% trails
PE 2.8% trails

That gets Biden to 268. So to win he has to take either

AR 3.2%
or
NE 4.3%

All others states are above 5%, given how the polls haven't moved....

IMHO is that Dems have to reduce impact of border issues on AR, I'm not sure about NE.

What is your path to Biden victory?
What does Joe need to do?
Or are just hoping the court cases impact Trump? (I think that is a fading hope)

If Biden wins MN, NH, MI, PE and AZ, then we would get 269 each and have a House/Senate election, President Trump, VP Harris LOL...

 

[AlexB23]

Purely looking at that state polls, to get to 270

Biden has to maintain lead in

WI 0.8% lead
MN 2% lead
NH 3% lead

He also has to win
MI 2.2% trails
PE 2.8% trails

That gets Biden to 268. So to win he has to take either

AR 3.2%
or
NE 4.3%

All others states are above 5%, given how the polls haven't moved....

IMHO is that Dems have to reduce impact of border issues on AR, I'm not sure about NE.

What is your path to Biden victory?
What does Joe need to do?
Or are just hoping the court cases impact Trump? (I think that is a fading hope)

If Biden wins MN, NH, MI, PE and AZ, then we would get 269 each and have a House/Senate election, President Trump, VP Harris LOL...

Too early to tell. We might have better data in the weeks before the election.

 

[chevyontheriver]

Too early to tell. We might have better data in the weeks before the election.

Dewey beats Truman. Polling is unreliable. We will have a better idea the day after the election.

 

[Tuur]

I don't discount comments on poll accuracy, only note that they're kind of like what Art Buchwald said about his political satire. When he was skewering one party, the other thought he was hilarious. Then, when he skewered them, they thought he'd lost his sense of humor. Whether or not we accept polls often depends on whether the polls say what we hoped they would.

Be that as it may, no one's addressed the question of Biden path to victory. About a third would vote Democrat regardless, so the Democrats don't have to worry about them. Another third will vote Republican regardless. The remaining third is divided between those who still believe media news and the cynical. To win any election, a party has to get that third to vote for them. The best thing the Democrats can do is to leave Biden at the White House with a gallon of ice cream while someone else campaigns for him. The media will carry his water, maybe even Fox News, so the less he says the better. That will lock in the vote of those who hang on media news' every word.

The remaining portion is more iffy and will likely hinge on the economy and how badly Biden messes things up between now and November.

My own informal poll are a few houses and neighborhoods who always put up campaign signs for Democrats. If they put up signs for Biden - Harris, then it's an election as usual. If, however, the signs are absent, then that signals real political trouble for Biden.

 

[AlexB23]

Dewey beats Truman. Polling is unreliable. We will have a better idea the day after the election.

Agreed.

 

[chevyontheriver]

I don't discount comments on poll accuracy, only note that they're kind of like what Art Buchwald said about his political satire. When he was skewering one party, the other thought he was hilarious. Then, when he skewered them, they thought he'd lost his sense of humor. Whether or not we accept polls often depends on whether the polls say what we hoped they would.

Be that as it may, no one's addressed the question of Biden path to victory. About a third would vote Democrat regardless, so the Democrats don't have to worry about them. Another third will vote Republican regardless. The remaining third is divided between those who still believe media news and the cynical. To win any election, a party has to get that third to vote for them. The best thing the Democrats can do is to leave Biden at the White House with a gallon of ice cream while someone else campaigns for him. The media will carry his water, maybe even Fox News, so the less he says the better. That will lock in the vote of those who hang on media news' every word.

The remaining portion is more iffy and will likely hinge on the economy and how badly Biden messes things up between now and November.

My own informal poll are a few houses and neighborhoods who always put up campaign signs for Democrats. If they put up signs for Biden - Harris, then it's an election as usual. If, however, the signs are absent, then that signals real political trouble for Biden.

Biden’s best hope is in that bucket of ice cream keeping him from saying anything. Likewise Trump’s best hope is that various court cases keep him off the campaign trail keeping him from saying anything stupid. SO the debates really are going to be fun, seeing who says the most stupid stuff.

As you can tell I have little confidence in either of them.

 

[Matt5]

Purely looking at that state polls, to get to 270

Biden has to maintain lead in

WI 0.8% lead
MN 2% lead
NH 3% lead

He also has to win
MI 2.2% trails
PE 2.8% trails

That gets Biden to 268. So to win he has to take either

AR 3.2%
or
NE 4.3%

All others states are above 5%, given how the polls haven't moved....

IMHO is that Dems have to reduce impact of border issues on AR, I'm not sure about NE.

What is your path to Biden victory?
What does Joe need to do?
Or are just hoping the court cases impact Trump? (I think that is a fading hope)

If Biden wins MN, NH, MI, PE and AZ, then we would get 269 each and have a House/Senate election, President Trump, VP Harris LOL...

All Biden needs to do is cheat. Luckily, that's already built into the system.

------ Georgia, 2020 election
First, he said when he requested ballot images from the 2020 election, he discovered that they had been destroyed, violating state law. Some of them from Fulton County had been digitally altered prior to certification. “That is actual fraud that has not been investigated to this day,” he said.

Second, there were 8,000 ballots double scanned statewide, he said, which was “fraud, errors, or a mixture of both.”

Third, there were 200,000 ballots inserted after the election was conducted, which was also fraud. Favorito testified to this day, an extra 200,000 votes in Georgia’s 2020 election have never been accounted for.

https://x . com/Rach_IC/status/1789723185174466782

------ Michigan, 2020
REEDOM OF INFORMATION ACT DOCUMENTS released by
@yehuda_miller

CONFIRMS: CONSPIRACY to overthrow the U.S. government,

The FBI and the DOJ uncovered a massive 2020 election MAIL IN BALLOT REGISTRATION fraud across the State of Michigan,

including +100,000 MAIL IN BALLOT applications falsified at Gov. Gretchen Whitbag’s own election headquarters,

And the criminals covered it up by passing it back to the criminal who was running it,

“I am following up with some information on one of the most egregious situations that I encountered. There are many examples of significant election integrity issues, but this example involves actions of government officials from both the local and state levels that are shocking.”

Dawn N. Ison Department of Justice Assistant U.S. Attorney | public corruption unit,

------ Arizona, 2020

Tucker Carlson: ‘They rigged the election’ and wiped their crimes clean ‘in front of all of us and nobody did anything about it.’

On 4-12-21 Dominion log files CONFIRMS Maricopa County officials Brian Ramirez and Kristi Passarelli deleting the official results of the 2020 election before an audit,

------ Wisconsin, 2020 election

BREAKING: Claire Woodall-Vogg fired!!!! She is the (was) the most corrupt election clerk in Wisconsin. I took her sworn deposition in a lawsuit I filed against her as Milwaukee City election clerk.

- She printed 64,000 ballots in the back conference room of City Hall, Room 501. For the Nov.3rd 2020 election.
- She had city employees and others (CTCL) fill some of those out on the 4th, 6th and other floors of city hall.
- Then kicked out observers around 10-10:30pm on Nov.3rd. Then brought in large amounts of ballots at 1:15am on Nov. 4th.
- All illegal, unconstitutional - number one way however the liberals stole the Presidential election in 2020.

------ Clark County, Nevada 2020 election
“Two Clark County technical employees came forward completely independent of each other, and explained that they discovered that the number of votes recorded by Dominion voting machines stored on USB drives would change between the time the polls were closed at night, and when they were reopened the next morning.”

“In other words votes were literally appearing and disappearing in the dead of night.”

https://twitter . com/Real_RobN/status/1783155168110076285
EXAMINING IRREGULARITIES IN THE 2020 ELECTION

-----

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[Arcangl86]

I suspect he's going to attempt to go fo the same route he took last time.

 

[Richard T]

Trump is likely going to surge, though some of the legal cases might slow things down. Any debate will be interesting if it happens, and of course the dems might switch biden out at the convention. So lots further to go. I just pray Trump picks God's choice as VP.

 

[chevyontheriver]

Trump is likely going to surge, though some of the legal cases might slow things down. Any debate will be interesting if it happens, and of course the dems might switch biden out at the convention. So lots further to go. I just pray Trump picks God's choice as VP.

The Dems are invested in or stuck with Biden. They would be better off with somebody else, anybody but Kamala, but as long as Joe is breathing they will go with him. He’s their proven winner.

As to Trump’s legal troubles, they minimize his saying anything politically stupid and it all still looks like political banana republic work by the Democrats anyway. If they can’t actually convict him of a felony it backfires on the Democrats. I suspect that Democratic true believers really think they can win a felony conviction somewhere and thus win by default.

It’s an insane choice between a geriatric and a narcissist although the geriatric is also narcissistic and the narcissist is getting geriatric. Who chose these two? Which is actually the more felonious? What a pair of mistakes.

Here’s where the Democratic true believers argue where Biden is the GOAT and is fully capable of another twelve years as president.

 

[Tuur]

The Dems are invested in or stuck with Biden. They would be better off with somebody else, anybody but Kamala, but as long as Joe is breathing they will go with him. He’s their proven winner.

As to Trump’s legal troubles, they minimize his saying anything politically stupid and it all still looks like political banana republic work by the Democrats anyway. If they can’t actually convict him of a felony it backfires on the Democrats. I suspect that Democratic true believers really think they can win a felony conviction somewhere and thus win by default.

It’s an insane choice between a geriatric and a narcissist although the geriatric is also narcissistic and the narcissist is getting geriatric. Who chose these two? Which is actually the more felonious? What a pair of mistakes.

Here’s where the Democratic true believers argue where Biden is the GOAT and is fully capable of another twelve years as president.

I hope Biden bows out prior or at the convention. But LBJ announce he wouldn't run just before April of that year and it's now close to June. I have no great affection for the Democrat party, but neither do I have great affection for the GOP, and would like to see a viable alternative. Unfortunately, given some campaigns seen in the primaries, the Democrats seem willing to double-down on planks I find troubling, and a candidate besides Biden might be more out there than what they've run before.

I agree with your assessment of Trump but would add naivety and attribute his failure to clean political house when he became president to that very thing. Cleaning political house with the change of administration is pretty much standard from the office off president down to the dogcatcher of Podunk, Mississippi, but aside from an initial flurry of activity, there was nothing really meaningful. Should he win, I don't expect anything really significant to come from it.

 

[chevyontheriver]

I hope Biden bows out prior or at the convention. But LBJ announce he wouldn't run just before April of that year and it's now close to June. I have no great affection for the Democrat party, but neither do I have great affection for the GOP, and would like to see a viable alternative. Unfortunately, given some campaigns seen in the primaries, the Democrats seem willing to double-down on planks I find troubling, and a candidate besides Biden might be more out there than what they've run before.

Yes, it does seem too late to switch. Unless of course the minders have it all worked out to the last detail. The risk in that is we might see that the minders have had it all worked out all along. It could backfire on them.

I agree with your assessment of Trump but would add naivety and attribute his failure to clean political house when he became president to that very thing. Cleaning political house with the change of administration is pretty much standard from the office off president down to the dogcatcher of Podunk, Mississippi, but aside from an initial flurry of activity, there was nothing really meaningful. Should he win, I don't expect anything really significant to come from it.

I wouldn't expect much from a Trump administration. A few moves in the right direction, a few in the wrong direction. Some good, some bad. Maybe better than Biden but who knows. I really do think you are right about him being naive. Draining the swamp isn't child's play, especially when the swamp is ... bipartisan.

What I suspect happens if Trump wins is massive civil unrest. To the point where governors will be calling up the National Guard.

 

[Richard T]

The Dems are invested in or stuck with Biden. They would be better off with somebody else, anybody but Kamala, but as long as Joe is breathing they will go with him. He’s their proven winner.

As to Trump’s legal troubles, they minimize his saying anything politically stupid and it all still looks like political banana republic work by the Democrats anyway. If they can’t actually convict him of a felony it backfires on the Democrats. I suspect that Democratic true believers really think they can win a felony conviction somewhere and thus win by default.

It’s an insane choice between a geriatric and a narcissist although the geriatric is also narcissistic and the narcissist is getting geriatric. Who chose these two? Which is actually the more felonious? What a pair of mistakes.

Here’s where the Democratic true believers argue where Biden is the GOAT and is fully capable of another twelve years as president.

I guess we will see soon enough. Many dems are getting nervous. If poll numbers drop anymore, Biden might get relieved from duty for incompetence or simply be told to resign for health reasons. Yes, it sure is too bad the two choices are almost unreal. I think it shows that God is working behind the scenes in this election. Whether the purposes are to shore up America as many think, or to perhaps judge America even further is hard to know. The stock market at all time highs is ripe for a huge correction, and war looms. Biden helped deliver this but if negative events go down on Trump's watch it will be devastating to conservatives.

 

[Fantine]

Speaking an old proverb metaphorically, you just have to give him enough rope to hang himself.
The debates will gave rules. Opponents' mics will be silenced when it's not their turn, or when they exceed the time limits.
Trump won't be able to use his hostile malevolent aggressive tactics to throw Biden off his game.
And if Biden seems flustered a glance at Trump, fuming like a caged beast, should calm him down. He is under great stress (of his own making) and he is becoming more incoherent and insensible every day.
Real life (caused by problems of his own making) will do him in.
As a precautionary measure, his staff should buy him shorter red ties.

 

[Brihaha]

I guess we will see soon enough. Many dems are getting nervous. If poll numbers drop anymore, Biden might get relieved from duty for incompetence or simply be told to resign for health reasons. Yes, it sure is too bad the two choices are almost unreal. I think it shows that God is working behind the scenes in this election. Whether the purposes are to shore up America as many think, or to perhaps judge America even further is hard to know. The stock market at all time highs is ripe for a huge correction, and war looms. Biden helped deliver this but if negative events go down on Trump's watch it will be devastating to conservatives.

It may very well be devastating for all Americans should Donald somehow get reelected. This is our concern.

 

[Richard T]

It may very well be devastating for all Americans should Donald somehow get reelected. This is our concern.

Biden is even worse though. He would have been more capable some twenty years ago, but is seriously lacking now. Seems to me the democrats are afraid to use the 25th Amendment. Hard to know if Trump will be devastating. We did OK in his first term. He has good instincts on trade and parts of immigration. The latest idea floating is to do away with income tax and put it all on tariffs. Now that would be a disaster.