JosephZ
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- Mar 25, 2017
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I still agree with you that Hamas must be destroyed, we just disagree on how that can be done.
Just a few days into this conflict on October 11th, I said "When people see their homes leveled, family members killed, or entire communities destroyed by military action, it often leads them to support or even join terrorist groups themselves. Years of military action against Gaza and the Palestinians have become a rallying cry for terrorists around the world, and Israel's renewed bombardment of Gaza and the killing of innocent civilians is only going to lead to further violence, not only in Israel but in other parts of the world as well."
And again on October 12th, I said, "Israel is not going to be able to destroy Hamas militarily. It may drive Hamas underground for awhile, but they will reappear at some point in the future, perhaps under another name, but it will still be the same actors. The current approach is only going to exacerbate long-standing grievances between the Palestinians and Israel, and until those grievances are addressed, terrorist attacks against Israel will continue. With every Palistinian child, brother, sister, father, mother, or grandparent that is killed by Isreali forces, another potential terrorist is born.
Other side effects of the ongoing military campaign against Hamas will be the possibility of splinter groups forming, foreign terrorist groups and lone wolves who sympathize with Hamas, and the struggle of the Palestinian people to conduct terror attacks in other parts of the world. Until there's a comprehensive approach that addresses the grievances of not only the Palestinians but also those of the Israelis, the conflict between the two will continue."
My responses were based on my education in terrorism studies and countering violent extremism and my experiences working with victims of conflict in Mindanao, where there were many similarities to the Israel/Palestine conflict. As the current conflict between Israel and Hamas is entering its second month, I see little hope in preventing future attacks against Israel and the countries that supported Israel's method of response to the October 7th terrorist attack. I'm afraid we may see a spike in terrorism that could rival what we saw in the mid-2010s. I hope I'm wrong, but everything is pointing in that direction. The sad thing about all of this is that it didn't have to be this way. Unfortunately, Israel and many other western powers still haven't learned from their past mistakes when it comes to dealing with terrorist groups.
Below is an article from a couple of days ago that shares the same outlook as I do, from experts who are far more qualified than myself on the subject, on where things will likely go as a result of Israel's unrelenting bombardment of Gaza.
Israel’s ferocious bombardment of the Gaza Strip will create an incubator for a new generation of terrorists, some extremism experts say, as thousands of young people who have lost families and homes risk being radicalized by the war and its likely chaotic aftermath.
“The cycle of radicalization cannot be thwarted by operations like the one Israel is carrying out, which only makes the cycle deeper, wider and uglier,” said H.A. Hellyer, a senior associate fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, a Washington, D.C., think tank. He said the conflict risks creating “Hamas 2.0” or perhaps “worse, from another group we’ve not seen yet.”
“You’re going to radicalize more people,” said Hanan Ashrawi, a veteran Palestinian politician and negotiator based in the occupied West Bank. “And you’re not only going to increase the trauma — you’re going to increase the demand for revenge.”
It is a well-established idea in radicalization studies: A state attempts to wipe out a militant group, only for the ensuing civilian collateral damage to become the best recruitment tool for that organization or ideal.
A recent example is the U.S.-led invasion of Iraq in 2003, which experts argue ultimately spawned the Islamic State, or ISIS.
The problem with the current bombing and ground campaign in Gaza, the radicalization experts’ argument goes, is that it might actually increase the risk to Israel and other countries in the long run.
The idea of defeating Hamas might be “emotionally satisfying,” said Lt. Col. Frederic Wehrey, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. “We have to recall the tenor of the moment. There’s a desire for revenge.”
But Wehrey, who served two decades as an officer in the U.S. Air Force, doesn’t believe that’s achievable. “You’re talking about eradicating a deeply entrenched movement,” he said, “a social entity, an entity that has its grip over Gaza.” Furthermore, militant groups such as Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad have been able to use the regular bombardment and the 16-year blockade of their enclave as potent methods of enlistment.
“Seeing your family exterminated, seeing close friends die abruptly at the hands of an enemy, these can all mobilize and motivate people towards violence,”
Israel’s bombardment of Gaza could be potent Hamas recruitment tool, experts warn
“The cycle of radicalization cannot be thwarted by operations like the one Israel is carrying out, which only makes the cycle deeper, wider and uglier,” one expert said.
www.nbcnews.com
I hope you are right about your friend, but anyone can become radicalized.
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