Russian forces destroy Kakhovka dam, triggering humanitarian disaster

[Nithavela]

Hey, everyone, remember that dam that people always said the russians would blow up to flood Kherson after they lost control of it? Guess what.

"Everything is quiet and calm, there is nothing at all," RIA Novosti, one of Russia's state-owned news agencies, cited the mayor, Vladimir Leontiev, as saying. He later said that only "the upper part of the power plant" had been damaged, but the dam itself was intact. Leontiev later claimed that the dam was destroyed by Ukrainian shelling.

Russian forces destroy Kakhovka dam, triggering humanitarian disaster

The dam of the Kakhovka Hydroelectric Power Plant across the Dnipro River, occupied by Russian forces, was destroyed on the morning of June 6, sparking a large-scale humanitarian and environmental disaster across southern Ukraine. Ukraine's Southern Operational Command reported early in the...

kyivindependent.com

On the upside, the dam was also responsible for crimeas main fresh water supply.

 

[The IbanezerScrooge]

I think it might be time for U.S. boots on the ground. This is getting ridiculous.

 

[Benjamin Müller]

Russians blaming Ukraine for it, which in all honesty, I believe the Russians.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2023/06/06/russia-ukraine-war-news-dam/

 

[Nithavela]

Russians blaming Ukraine for it, which in all honesty, I believe the Russians.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2023/06/06/russia-ukraine-war-news-dam/

Why anyone would believe official russian statements without being caught in their TV bubble, I can't fathom.

 

[Benjamin Müller]

Why anyone would believe official russian statements without being caught in their TV bubble, I can't fathom.

I wonder how anyone can support Ukraine. If you don't follow ASB Military News on Telegram, as well as other channels from overseas, you aren't getting the complete story of what is happening in Ukraine. Ukraine is the sex-trafficking capital of the world. The recent reports (and they are true) is that they're taking the ugly children to be organ donors and the beautiful ones as sex slaves. Journalists are asking Ukrainian soldiers to hide their Nazi's emblems.

Ukrainian leadership needs to be destroyed.

 

[Nithavela]

I wonder how anyone can support Ukraine. If you don't follow ASB Military News on Telegram, as well as other channels from overseas, you aren't getting the complete story of what is happening in Ukraine. Ukraine is the sex-trafficking capital of the world. The recent reports (and they are true) is that they're taking the ugly children to be organ donors and the beautiful ones as sex slaves.

Do they also eat live baby seals?

 

[Benjamin Müller]

Do they also eat live baby seals?

Stand by your Nazi's. I certainly won't.

 

[Nithavela]

Stand by your Nazi's. I certainly won't.

You obviously have your own Nazis to stand by.

 

[pastmoon]

Washington Post indicated in December that Ukrainian military considered blowing it up:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/12/29/ukraine-offensive-kharkiv-kherson-donetsk

"Kovalchuk considered flooding the river. The Ukrainians, he said, even conducted a test strike with a HIMARS launcher on one of the floodgates at the Nova Kakhovka dam, making three holes in the metal to see if the Dnieper’s water could be raised enough to stymie Russian crossings but not flood nearby villages.

The test was a success, Kovalchuk said, but the step remained a last resort. He held off."

 

[wing2000]

I think it might be time for U.S. boots on the ground. This is getting ridiculous.

Nah. I think the Ukrainian military is performing well without our boots on the ground. Now if the US were to provide close air support and cover.....that would certainly be a game changer....alas, I think that would be too hard for Putin to swallow...

 

[wing2000]

Washington Post indicated in December that Ukrainian military considered blowing it up:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/12/29/ukraine-offensive-kharkiv-kherson-donetsk

"Kovalchuk considered flooding the river. The Ukrainians, he said, even conducted a test strike with a HIMARS launcher on one of the floodgates at the Nova Kakhovka dam, making three holes in the metal to see if the Dnieper’s water could be raised enough to stymie Russian crossings but not flood nearby villages.

The test was a success, Kovalchuk said, but the step remained a last resort. He held off."

...but what would be the military objective of blowing up the dam now?

From what I understand, the flooding could hinder Ukrainian offensive operations...

 

[RocksInMyHead]

Washington Post indicated in December that Ukrainian military considered blowing it up:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/12/29/ukraine-offensive-kharkiv-kherson-donetsk

"Kovalchuk considered flooding the river. The Ukrainians, he said, even conducted a test strike with a HIMARS launcher on one of the floodgates at the Nova Kakhovka dam, making three holes in the metal to see if the Dnieper’s water could be raised enough to stymie Russian crossings but not flood nearby villages.

The test was a success, Kovalchuk said, but the step remained a last resort. He held off."

The strategic situation has changed significantly since then - Ukraine completely controls the west bank of the Dnieper, so the necessity of cutting the dam as a Russian supply route (which is the context in which it was proposed, according to that article) no longer exists. Exercising something that they billed as a "last resort" option when it's completely unnecessary doesn't make much sense. Furthermore, there are reports that Ukraine was pushing a counteroffensive across the river at Kherson (below the dam), and flooding across their own counteroffensive wouldn't exactly be a smart move.

That's not to say that Ukraine didn't do it - there are reasons why it could make strategic sense (cutting off water to Crimea, preventing a counter-counteroffensive by Russia at Kherson, if their "counteroffensive" there is actually a feint), and it could also be a targeting error/errant munition or partisan/militia (i.e. non-military) action.

Russia is the more likely perpetrator though. While it does negatively impact them as well, it serves the purpose of stalling/thwarting any counteroffensive at Kherson, which is one of their primary concerns at the moment. If Ukraine breaks through the defenses there, they have a pretty easy ride to Crimea, which is the territorial gain that Russia most wants to retain from this conflict (and territory that Ukraine definitely wants back).

 

[Nithavela]

My personal theory is that Russians have no idea what they are doing and just think that war crimes are forbidden because they are super effective at winning wars, and so they do war crimes.

 

[Hans Blaster]

Do they also eat live baby seals?

The vatniks are getting more obvious.

 

[Hans Blaster]

The strategic situation has changed significantly since then - Ukraine completely controls the west bank of the Dnieper, so the necessity of cutting the dam as a Russian supply route (which is the context in which it was proposed, according to that article) no longer exists. Exercising something that they billed as a "last resort" option when it's completely unnecessary doesn't make much sense. Furthermore, there are reports that Ukraine was pushing a counteroffensive across the river at Kherson (below the dam), and flooding across their own counteroffensive wouldn't exactly be a smart move.

That's not to say that Ukraine didn't do it - there are reasons why it could make strategic sense (cutting off water to Crimea, preventing a counter-counteroffensive by Russia at Kherson, if their "counteroffensive" there is actually a feint), and it could also be a targeting error/errant munition or partisan/militia (i.e. non-military) action.

Russia is the more likely perpetrator though. While it does negatively impact them as well, it serves the purpose of stalling/thwarting any counteroffensive at Kherson, which is one of their primary concerns at the moment. If Ukraine breaks through the defenses there, they have a pretty easy ride to Crimea, which is the territorial gain that Russia most wants to retain from this conflict (and territory that Ukraine definitely wants back).

The military advantage (tactical or strategic) for Ukraine to blow the dam is approximately zero and mostly negative. The loss of the dam and the associated flooding removes from the table the possibility of an amphibious landing across the river by Ukraine, or at least the threat of it, for quite some time. This is what Russia gains in the loss of the dam, an essentially clear front along the entirety of the river line of contact. They can now largely pull out the defensive forces and redeploy them where attacks are actually happening (like Bilhorad) and leave only the occupation troops.

 

[RocksInMyHead]

The military advantage (tactical or strategic) for Ukraine to blow the dam is approximately zero and mostly negative. The loss of the dam and the associated flooding removes from the table the possibility of an amphibious landing across the river by Ukraine, or at least the threat of it, for quite some time. This is what Russia gains in the loss of the dam, an essentially clear front along the entirety of the river line of contact. They can now largely pull out the defensive forces and redeploy them where attacks are actually happening (like Bilhorad) and leave only the occupation troops.

Oh, for sure - like I said, Russia is the far more likely culprit. There just isn't any positive evidence for who is responsible, so I don't want to rule out possibilities. Stranger things have happened in this war (admittedly, mainly on the Russian side).

 

[Hans Blaster]

Oh, for sure - like I said, Russia is the far more likely culprit. There just isn't any positive evidence for who is responsible, so I don't want to rule out possibilities. Stranger things have happened in this war (admittedly, mainly on the Russian side).

The possible causes for the failure, from what I can tell would be:

1. mechanical failure due to poor maintinance and overfilling (it was quite high before the breach).

2. "assisted" mechanical failure triggered by a shell landing too close (accidental enhancement) and exacerbating a weakness.

3. A commando raid delivering a boat of explosives in the middle of the night

4. Pre-rigged explosives triggered.

3 is kind of fanciful, and 2 is just 1 + a trigger, so...

Either mechanical failure due to willful neglect during a high water state, or
the Russians set off the explosives Ukraine has been claiming were present since last year and the withdrawal.

Both countries are claiming to investigate it. We'll see what becomes of that.

 

[Lukaris]

Nah. I think the Ukrainian military is performing well without our boots on the ground. Now if the US were to provide close air support and cover.....that would certainly be a game changer....alas, I think that would be too hard for Putin to swallow...

We have to be concerned about Putin going nuclear also.

 

[Nithavela]

We have to be concerned about Putin going nuclear also.

I stopped being concerned about this more than a year ago.

 

[Larniavc]

I wonder how anyone can support Ukraine. If you don't follow ASB Military News on Telegram, as well as other channels from overseas, you aren't getting the complete story of what is happening in Ukraine. Ukraine is the sex-trafficking capital of the world. The recent reports (and they are true) is that they're taking the ugly children to be organ donors and the beautiful ones as sex slaves. Journalists are asking Ukrainian soldiers to hide their Nazi's emblems.

Ukrainian leadership needs to be destroyed.

Evidence please.