Ukraine in desperate need

[sfs]

Russia is still allowed to sell oil

What does 'allowed' mean here? Yes, countries are still buying Russian oil. The US is not one of those countries. So why are you complaining about Biden rather than Olaf Scholz, who has resisted imposing further sanctions?

Joe won't let our fossil fuel establishment supply Europe.

What does that mean? Have we banned shipments of oil to Europe?

We are not supplying Ukraine with the aircraft and defense systems they need.

They're getting quite a lot of air defense systems, and we just facilitated Ukraine's acquisition of 20 more functional jets. (Whether this was by supplying them with parts for existing planes, or 'parts -- nudge, wink' is not clear, but it substantially increases their air capability either way.) Ukraine's biggest need has been for heavy artillery, and the US is shipping 100 155 mm howitzers, with other countries making additional unspecified contributions. That's besides all the armor they're receiving, including 100 main battle tanks. They are getting a lot of serious hardware.

The US has been leading this effort while other countries have been lagging badly -- most notably Germany. So again, why are you complaining about Biden rather than Scholz?

Joe won't ramp up the mid level nuclear weapons sending a message to Putin that he can use them without retaliation.

You're seriously complaining that Biden hasn't engaged in pointless saber rattling? You are really looking desperate here.

In any case, you didn't answer my question -- how is this conflict going to spread?

 

[Gene2memE]

Ukraine for the most part is very flat. The war will be won or lost with aircraft and missiles.

Tell me you know nothing about Russian air power, without saying anything about Russian air power.

 

[Valletta]

What does 'allowed' mean here? Yes, countries are still buying Russian oil. The US is not one of those countries. So why are you complaining about Biden rather than Olaf Scholz, who has resisted imposing further sanctions?

What does that mean? Have we banned shipments of oil to Europe?

They're getting quite a lot of air defense systems, and we just facilitated Ukraine's acquisition of 20 more functional jets. (Whether this was by supplying them with parts for existing planes, or 'parts -- nudge, wink' is not clear, but it substantially increases their air capability either way.) Ukraine's biggest need has been for heavy artillery, and the US is shipping 100 155 mm howitzers, with other countries making additional unspecified contributions. That's besides all the armor they're receiving, including 100 main battle tanks. They are getting a lot of serious hardware.

The US has been leading this effort while other countries have been lagging badly -- most notably Germany. So again, why are you complaining about Biden rather than Scholz?

You're seriously complaining that Biden hasn't engaged in pointless saber rattling? You are really looking desperate here.

In any case, you didn't answer my question -- how is this conflict going to spread?

 

[Gene2memE]

Russia is still allowed to sell oil, Joe won't let our fossil fuel establishment supply Europe.

You're impressively wrong here.

US oil exports to Europe are at record levels. They are up better than 50% over the past eight weeks - mostly to the Netherlands and the UK. US oil exports broke the all time record literally last week - 10.6 million barrels of crude and refined oil products in total.

US natural gas exports to Europe are set to nearly double this year - from 22 billion cubic meters in 2021 to a minimum of 37 billion cubic meters.

US coal exports are a problem - mostly because it's really hard to ramp up coal production quickly and the US mining companies deal in long term contracts. Ukraine was the US' largest European coal export market in 2021. Even with that, US coal exports to Europe for 2022 are forecast to be the highest for better than 20 years.

Total US fossil fuel based exports hit 2.4 quadrillion BTUs last month - an all-time record.

 

[Valletta]

What does 'allowed' mean here? Yes, countries are still buying Russian oil. The US is not one of those countries. So why are you complaining about Biden rather than Olaf Scholz, who has resisted imposing further sanctions?

What does that mean? Have we banned shipments of oil to Europe?

Our country could supply Europe with all of the fuel they need if Joe rolled back the restrictions and regulations on the fossil fuel industry in the U.S. Joe's actions both aid the war for Russia and accelerate climate change.

They're getting quite a lot of air defense systems, and we just facilitated Ukraine's acquisition of 20 more functional jets. (Whether this was by supplying them with parts for existing planes, or 'parts -- nudge, wink' is not clear, but it substantially increases their air capability either way.)

They need aircraft, now.
Facilitating twenty aircraft is not going to do it.

You're seriously complaining that Biden hasn't engaged in pointless saber rattling? You are really looking desperate here.

Putin will use the mid-range nuclear missiles if he has to, he has tested Joe by bringing this up and Joe refuses to start building mid-range nuclear missiles. If Joe won't counter with mid-range Putin can be confident Joe will not use the big stuff.

In any case, you didn't answer my question -- how is this conflict going to spread?

As to spreading, do you really think Putin will stop with Mariupol? Joe seems frozen because of Putin's threats, Putin knows what could win the war for Ukraine and all he has to do is threaten the West and say there may be nuclear war if the West gives it to them. He will take more and more of Ukraine, before he invaded he let the world know he planned on going beyond Ukraine. China too has tested Joe with their words about Taiwan. War will spread to Taiwan should Joe continue this course.
Why a Chinese Security Deal in the Pacific Could Ripple Through the World

 

[RocksInMyHead]

Our country could supply Europe with all of the fuel they need if Joe rolled back the restrictions and regulations on the fossil fuel industry in the U.S. Joe's actions both aid the war for Russia and accelerate climate change.

No, we could not. Laying aside the fact that environmental regulations are there for a reason (look up pictures of oil fields in the early 1900s and tell me you want that in your back yard), if he had cancelled everything as soon as Russia invaded, we would not have any significant increase in production just two months later - and that's before we even get into transport capacity. We don't have a pipeline to Europe, which is how most Russian oil is delivered, so that means it would have to be carried by tankers (which there are a limited number of) and loaded/unloaded at ports (which are already overloaded). There's a massive amount of infrastructure needed to support what you're proposing here.

They need aircraft, now.
Facilitating twenty aircraft is not going to do it.

Giving them aircraft that they have never flown with controls in a language that they do not speak and that are not compatible with the weapons that they have in stock would not help them at all.

Putin will use the mid-range nuclear missiles if he has to, he has tested Joe by bringing this up and Joe refuses to start building mid-range nuclear missiles. If Joe won't counter with mid-range Putin can be confident Joe will not use the big stuff.

Not sure what you're talking about here. Not building new mid-range missiles has nothing to do with whether or not we'd use what we have if justified.

As to spreading, do you really think Putin will stop with Mariupol? Joe seems frozen because of Putin's threats, Putin knows what could win the war for Ukraine and all he has to do is threaten the West and say there may be nuclear war if the West gives it to them. He will take more and more of Ukraine, before he invaded he let the world know he planned on going beyond Ukraine.

Russia doesn't have the manpower to hold Ukraine. Even if they managed to take every city, they'd still be facing a highly-trained and massively supported insurgency - think Afghanistan, but worse. And their economy probably isn't going to last much longer - even with people still buying their oil and gas, they're still on the verge of economic collapse.

China too has tested Joe with their words about Taiwan. War will spread to Taiwan should Joe continue this course.
Why a Chinese Security Deal in the Pacific Could Ripple Through the World

I do worry that China will take the opportunity to invade Taiwan, but I hope that the economic consequences illustrated by Russia will be a deterrent.

 

[Ponderous Curmudgeon]

Our country could supply Europe with all of the fuel they need if Joe rolled back the restrictions and regulations on the fossil fuel industry in the U.S. Joe's actions both aid the war for Russia and accelerate climate change.

They need aircraft, now.
Facilitating twenty aircraft is not going to do it.
Putin will use the mid-range nuclear missiles if he has to, he has tested Joe by bringing this up and Joe refuses to start building mid-range nuclear missiles. If Joe won't counter with mid-range Putin can be confident Joe will not use the big stuff.
As to spreading, do you really think Putin will stop with Mariupol? Joe seems frozen because of Putin's threats, Putin knows what could win the war for Ukraine and all he has to do is threaten the West and say there may be nuclear war if the West gives it to them. He will take more and more of Ukraine, before he invaded he let the world know he planned on going beyond Ukraine. China too has tested Joe with their words about Taiwan. War will spread to Taiwan should Joe continue this course.
Why a Chinese Security Deal in the Pacific Could Ripple Through the World

He Valetta, how many Mig 29s and Su 27s do you think the US has to send them? We may have a few for training purposes, but not combat ready and the Ukrainian pilots are not trained to fly US aircraft.

 

[sfs]

As to spreading, do you really think Putin will stop with Mariupol?

As @RocksInMyHead has pointed out, everything you wrote above is completely incorrect. This question reveals a similar disconnect from reality -- are you paying any attention at all to what's actually happening in Ukraine? Personally, I think Putin would love to continue past Mariupol. He'd also love to have captured Kyiv in the first three days of the war (as he evidently expected to) and wrapped up the war then. What Putin wants has very little to do with what the Russian army can actually achieve. They haven't even managed to fully take Mariupol and have had to retreat on multiple fronts. They've lost something like 25% of their combat strength in a few weeks, which is around the point where conventional wisdom says that units become combat ineffective. They likely lack the forces needed even to make substantial gains in eastern Ukraine and they are far short of the numbers needed to occupy a country that large.

For those who are interested, here is a good rundown on the artillery the US is sending. Summary: 'Given the precision, and range, of these systems, IMO they will outgun the RUs in any artillery duel.' And the system the French are sending is even better: https://twitter.com/morcos_pierre/status/1517474484328050689. How much the French are sending I don't know.

 

[Trogdor the Burninator]

These threads seem to just be concern trolling now - using the war in Ukraine as a desperate (failed) attempt to show Joe Biden in a bad light.

 

[Valletta]

No, we could not. Laying aside the fact that environmental regulations are there for a reason (look up pictures of oil fields in the early 1900s and tell me you want that in your back yard), if he had cancelled everything as soon as Russia invaded, we would not have any significant increase in production just two months later - and that's before we even get into transport capacity. We don't have a pipeline to Europe, which is how most Russian oil is delivered, so that means it would have to be carried by tankers (which there are a limited number of) and loaded/unloaded at ports (which are already overloaded). There's a massive amount of infrastructure needed to support what you're proposing here.

As I've said before, Joe needs to roll back the regulations and restrictions his administration has imposed--just going back to the Trump era regulations and restrictions and restoring the projects Joe has shut down, such as the pipeline, would allow our country to supply Europe. This should have been started many months ago, as should have weapons to Ukraine once Putin started massing troops on the border. We are a world power, we should not be waiting until being shamed into such actions by smaller countries. Since I posted I have learned Biden has taken action--in the wrong direction in the middle of this world crisis:
President Biden restores environmental review of infrastructure projects

Giving them aircraft that they have never flown with controls in a language that they do not speak and that are not compatible with the weapons that they have in stock would not help them at all.

"Poland had offered to donate Soviet-era MiG 29 aircraft to Ukraine via a U.S. air base in Germany, but Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin told his Polish counterpart, Mariusz Błaszczak, that the U.S. opposed the proposal, Pentagon press secretary John Kirby told reporters."
Biden admin rules out transfer of Polish fighter jets to Ukraine

Not sure what you're talking about here. Not building new mid-range missiles has nothing to do with whether or not we'd use what we have if justified.

If we don't have equal capability we cannot retaliate with equal capability.

Russia doesn't have the manpower to hold Ukraine. Even if they managed to take every city, they'd still be facing a highly-trained and massively supported insurgency - think Afghanistan, but worse. And their economy probably isn't going to last much longer - even with people still buying their oil and gas, they're still on the verge of economic collapse.

Ukraine is tactically far different than Afghanistan. The vast majority of the population lives in relatively flat areas. The Soviet Union was able to hold many countries under their rule. Russia can simply obliterate as much of the population as they wish with mid-range nuclear weapons and take prisoners and send them back to Russia, which they have already started doing.

 

[Arcangl86]

"Poland had offered to donate Soviet-era MiG 29 aircraft to Ukraine via a U.S. air base in Germany, but Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin told his Polish counterpart, Mariusz Błaszczak, that the U.S. opposed the proposal, Pentagon press secretary John Kirby told reporters."
Biden admin rules out transfer of Polish fighter jets to Ukraine

And those planes are likely the same ones that were sent to Ukraine as "parts."

If we don't have equal capability we cannot retaliate with equal capability.

But we don't need to retaliate with equal capability. If Russia were to go nuclear, we can simply respond with Minutemen if we choose to. It's like if somebody was approaching us with a pistol and we have a sniper rifle. We can attack at a higher range.

Ukraine is tactically far different than Afghanistan. The vast majority of the population lives in relatively flat areas. The Soviet Union was able to hold many countries under their rule. Russia can simply obliterate as much of the population as they wish with mid-range nuclear weapons and take prisoners and send them back to Russia, which they have already started doing.

Russia isn't going to blanket Ukraine with nukes. That will take away a lot of the value of Ukraine.

 

[Homeowner]

As to spreading, do you really think Putin will stop with Mariupol? Joe seems frozen because of Putin's threats, Putin knows what could win the war for Ukraine and all he has to do is threaten the West and say there may be nuclear war if the West gives it to them. He will take more and more of Ukraine, before he invaded he let the world know he planned on going beyond Ukraine. China too has tested Joe with their words about Taiwan. War will spread to Taiwan should Joe continue this course.

China has their own problems.

Their army is untested and manned by men from single child families that are unused to hardships, expected to take care of their parents and grandparents and losing them would be even more catastrophic for Chinese demographics and civil order than Russia.

Taiwan is an island with limited landing spaces for amphibious assaults. I doubt US could take it in conventional warfare let alone China. With US packing them with intel there won't be any surprise attacks to start the war.

China would be much more heavily impacted by sanctions that would start to rain down on them. It would be a huge mess that would set back Chinese plans back decades.

Threatening with nuclear war only works so far if that is all you got. North Korea isn't dominating world politics with their nuke threats. Only thing it does is to makes sure nobody squashes them and their little regime of terror.

This current war is probably a heaven given dose of reality for Chinese leaders to evaluate again their plans of aggression against Taiwan. I really doubt they have a feasible opportunity for it during this decade.

Then again I was also convinced Putin wouldn't be stupid enough to start this war either so there is always the human element. Let's hope cooler and more calculating heads prevail.

 

[Gene2memE]

Putin will use the mid-range nuclear missiles if he has to, he has tested Joe by bringing this up and Joe refuses to start building mid-range nuclear missiles. If Joe won't counter with mid-range Putin can be confident Joe will not use the big stuff.

Mid-range missiles? What are you going on about?

Russia doesn't have any "mid-range nuclear missiles". Russian have a whole nuclear arsenal, consisting of ground and sea launched ICBMs, air and ground launched cruise missiles and a few short ranged ground systems. The only thing that could be called a medium range system is the new-ish 9M729, which is a ground launched cruise missile with a range of ~5500 km. Technically, it's an intermediate range weapon.

Russia started deploying them in 2017. The US pulled out of the INF agreement in 2019 as a result. However, 9M729 isn't really new. It's a reheated version of the RK-55 - a missile from the mid 1980s.

Why should the US develop a medium range nuclear missile? What strategic or tactical role would it have that are not already filled by existing US air, sea and land platforms? What capabilities are lacking that would require ~$7-15 billion dollars be spent on a new weapons system? How is it going to pass JCIDS review?

 

[Homeowner]

Russian have a whole nuclear arsenal, consisting of ground and sea launched ICBMs, air and ground launched cruise missiles and a few short ranged ground systems.

Nuclear arsenal that they can't really use without extremely serious repercussions. Yet they are using billions to upgrade them while their troops that are actually doing something suffer from lack of support equipment, spares, smart ammunition and modern equipment.

You don't need overblown nuclear arsenal to make your point. No nation can afford to have 100 cities being blown away so who cares if the other side has 6000 nukes or 500 ? Or whatever they are mid range or long range ?

Only requirement is to get enough of them home to have desired effect. It is probably fair to say that US has this capacity. Probably Russia as well.

To be fair any nuclear armed nation has enough of the things to make it not cost effective to attack them.

Which , of course, is the whole point.

 

[Valletta]

Nuclear arsenal that they can't really use without extremely serious repercussions. Yet they are using billions to upgrade them while their troops that are actually doing something suffer from lack of support equipment, spares, smart ammunition and modern equipment.

You don't need overblown nuclear arsenal to make your point. No nation can afford to have 100 cities being blown away so who cares if the other side has 6000 nukes or 500 ? Or whatever they are mid range or long range ?

Only requirement is to get enough of them home to have desired effect. It is probably fair to say that US has this capacity. Probably Russia as well.

To be fair any nuclear armed nation has enough of the things to make it not cost effective to attack them.

Which , of course, is the whole point.

Putin started manufacturing the mid-range nuclear weapons for a reason. He does not need to use them against every city, nor use them at all unless he figures he can't win without using one or a few.

 

[Nithavela]

Putin started manufacturing the mid-range nuclear weapons for a reason.

Maybe the reason is that he sucks at geostrategy.

 

[Nithavela]

 

[Arcangl86]

Putin started manufacturing the mid-range nuclear weapons for a reason. He does not need to use them against every city, nor use them at all unless he figures he can't win without using one or a few.

The reason is probably that they are simpler, and thus cheaper, then ICBMs. Instead of using up his limited resources of those, he is building shorter range missiles for possible targets among his neighbors. US ground based missiles are all ICBM, and part of the reason is that we don't need to forward deploy them, which means it's easier to deploy them.

 

[Homeowner]

Putin started manufacturing the mid-range nuclear weapons for a reason. He does not need to use them against every city, nor use them at all unless he figures he can't win without using one or a few.

It is hard to imagine a way he can win using nukes. China wouldn't tolerate it. Nor would US and the West. And probably nobody else apart from maybe North Korea who would be about as prosperous nation after getting nuked than it is at the moment.

Just wasted money.

 

[mindlight]

What does 'allowed' mean here? Yes, countries are still buying Russian oil. The US is not one of those countries. So why are you complaining about Biden rather than Olaf Scholz, who has resisted imposing further sanctions?

What does that mean? Have we banned shipments of oil to Europe?

They're getting quite a lot of air defense systems, and we just facilitated Ukraine's acquisition of 20 more functional jets. (Whether this was by supplying them with parts for existing planes, or 'parts -- nudge, wink' is not clear, but it substantially increases their air capability either way.) Ukraine's biggest need has been for heavy artillery, and the US is shipping 100 155 mm howitzers, with other countries making additional unspecified contributions. That's besides all the armor they're receiving, including 100 main battle tanks. They are getting a lot of serious hardware.

The US has been leading this effort while other countries have been lagging badly -- most notably Germany. So again, why are you complaining about Biden rather than Scholz?

You're seriously complaining that Biden hasn't engaged in pointless saber rattling? You are really looking desperate here.

In any case, you didn't answer my question -- how is this conflict going to spread?

Germany is doing its bit:

Germany will deliver anti-aircraft tanks to Ukraine | DW | 26.04.2022

Germany is in a far more vulnerable position than the USA over Russian gas supplies. If supply is stopped that has massive long-term repercussions for the European economy and it is simplistic to say just turn the gas off.

The question of the USA supplying Europe with fossil fuels is a moot point since it cannot even meet its own colossal demand at the moment.