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Aryeh Jay

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Ask Zelensky how his country's nuclear arms agreement is going:

The Massandra Accords set the stage for the ultimately successful trilateral talks. As the United States mediated between Russia and Ukraine, the three countries signed the Trilateral Statement on January 14, 1994. Ukraine committed to full disarmament, including strategic weapons, in exchange for economic support and security assurances from the United States and Russia.

Well clearly you have no idea how a nuclear arms agreement really works.

The country that retains the nuclear arms makes the agreements.
 
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o_mlly

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Well clearly you have no idea how a nuclear arms agreement really works.

The country that retains the nuclear arms makes the agreements
Well, really? Do tell us how nuclear arms agreements really work. You know, as opposed to other kinds of unreal agreements.
 
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Aryeh Jay

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It must be stressed Nazi Germany was not a nuclear power, and the Empire of Japan was defeated with strategic nuclear bombardment. Hitler, thankfully, was too deranged to focus on a nuclear weapons program and instead gave the world ballistic missiles.

It was because of the threat of nuclear provocation with the Soviet Union that President Truman fired General MacArthur, leading to the famed “in war, there is no substitute for victory!” speech. And at the time MacArthur was probably right for at the time Stalin’s nuclear abilities, while very real, were also not well developed, in contrast to our interception and retaliation abilities, but the Soviet Union quickly narrowed the bomb gap and now, even if we assume that Russian nuclear forces are not as good as advertised, there is still no doubt that they could, in combination with ours, lead to the nuclear nightmare that correctly preoccupied people in prior decades. This is why Ukraine is not worth it; they are not a NATO member and there is no obligation to protect them against a nuclear enemy. Our status as a nuclear power grants us the same freedom that Russia is excercing; if you want war so much as to quote Roosevelt and Churchill, invade somewhere the Russians aren’t likely to nuke us over.

The Russian government and Putin thank you for the support. Every little bit helps.
 
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Aryeh Jay

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Well, really? Do tell us how nuclear arms agreements really work. You know, as opposed to other kinds of unreal agreements.

It has been explained. Russia, a country that possesses nuclear weapons, has humbly asked Ukraine to surrender peacefully and become part of the glorious Russian peace republic. If Ukraine refuses the generous offer from Russia, then Russia will use the threat of global nuclear annihilation to keep other countries from interfering with the peaceful Russian eradication of Ukrainian men, women, and children.
 
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o_mlly

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A man I quoted in a post above: Winston Churchill.
Just war theory requires that the defending country make a prudential judgement that it can prevail in the conflict. Here, I think, we have a parallel between Churchill and Zelensky: both in their war against their oppressors made the judgment that to prevail required the U.S. become involved in their conflicts.
 
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o_mlly

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It has been explained. Russia, a country that possesses nuclear weapons, has humbly asked Ukraine to surrender peacefully and become part of the glorious Russian peace republic. If Ukraine refuses the generous offer from Russia, then Russia will use the threat of global nuclear annihilation to keep other countries from interfering with the peaceful Russian eradication of Ukrainian men, women, and children.
I guess you mean to say that Zelensky thinks his nuclear agreement is crushing his country. I agree.
 
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Bradskii

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Just war theory requires that the defending country make a prudential judgement that it can prevail in the conflict. Here, I think, we have a parallel between Churchill and Zelensky: both in their war against their oppressors made the judgment that to prevail required the U.S. become involved in their conflicts.

A couple of subtle differences I might point out.

Firstly, The US only entered the war when it was attacked. Not when it was asked to join forces. And then only against Japan. And they didn't declare war against Germany. Germany declared war against the US.

Secondly, mainland US was relatively safe. They were in no danger of being attacked. They certainly are now. So it might be prudent, to say the least, to tread very, very carefully. The rest of us (even those as far away as me) would sincerely appreciate it.
 
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com7fy8

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What is now causing me to oppose both the Ukrainian and Russian governments
China went into Tibet and took that country. But much United States manufacturing business now is in China . . . versus major sanctions.

So, how wrong a government is might not have much to do with how the United States reacts to an invasion.

I suppose Ukraine became a lot more free and prosperous after leaving the Soviet Union. And locals in Ukraine and Russia have been talking to one another . . . and comparing how things are under the Russian government and under the Ukrainian government. And that could be a "thing" which has been a thorn in President Putin's side . . . maybe.

But dirty dealers can use democracy to get into power, too.

And "God resists the proud," we have in James 4:6 and also in 1 Peter 5:5. My opinion is that God uses one wrong country to resist another.

So, God knows who is who; He knows the secrets :) And He says what to do >

"first of all" > 1 Timothy 2:1-4.

So, this world can produce a lot of nonsense to trick our attention to where our attention does not belong.
 
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Hans Blaster

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Just war theory requires that the defending country make a prudential judgement that it can prevail in the conflict. Here, I think, we have a parallel between Churchill and Zelensky: both in their war against their oppressors made the judgment that to prevail required the U.S. become involved in their conflicts.

You don't think the US is involved in this war? Not just public support and economic sanctions, but weapons and (most importantly) intelligence products. About the only thing we aren't doing is placing troops in theater or actively targeting Russian military assets with weapons.
 
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Hans Blaster

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It must be stressed Nazi Germany was not a nuclear power, and the Empire of Japan was defeated with strategic nuclear bombardment. Hitler, thankfully, was too deranged to focus on a nuclear weapons program and instead gave the world ballistic missiles.

It was because of the threat of nuclear provocation with the Soviet Union that President Truman fired General MacArthur, leading to the famed “in war, there is no substitute for victory!” speech. And at the time MacArthur was probably right for at the time Stalin’s nuclear abilities, while very real, were also not well developed, in contrast to our interception and retaliation abilities, but the Soviet Union quickly narrowed the bomb gap and now, even if we assume that Russian nuclear forces are not as good as advertised, there is still no doubt that they could, in combination with ours, lead to the nuclear nightmare that correctly preoccupied people in prior decades. This is why Ukraine is not worth it; they are not a NATO member and there is no obligation to protect them against a nuclear enemy. Our status as a nuclear power grants us the same freedom that Russia is excercing; if you want war so much as to quote Roosevelt and Churchill, invade somewhere the Russians aren’t likely to nuke us over.

This is *not* a formulation for peace. It is a formulation for rule by those with the biggest weapons, because they have the biggest weapons.
 
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o_mlly

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A couple of subtle differences I might point out.

Firstly, The US only entered the war when it was attacked. Not when it was asked to join forces. And then only against Japan. And they didn't declare war against Germany. Germany declared war against the US.

Secondly, mainland US was relatively safe. They were in no danger of being attacked. They certainly are now. So it might be prudent, to say the least, to tread very, very carefully. The rest of us (even those as far away as me) would sincerely appreciate it.
No problems with the historical facts you cite.

The point made is that the just war principle of a reasonable chance of success required in conducting an ongoing war against an unjust aggressor, Churchill's and Zelensky's calculus are similar in that the necessary cooperation from the U.S., even though requested and denied, relied on the belief (faith) that that which was necessary was still forthcoming.

You don't think the US is involved in this war? Not just public support and economic sanctions, but weapons and (most importantly) intelligence products. About the only thing we aren't doing is placing troops in theater or actively targeting Russian military assets with weapons.
The U.S. involvement at this point is quite similar to the U.S. involvement in WWII until 1941, e.g., embargo on oil and gas to Japan, freezing of the Axis powers assets in the U.S., weapons shipments to the Allies but no declaration of war against the unjust aggressor.
 
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The Liturgist

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This is *not* a formulation for peace. It is a formulation for rule by those with the biggest weapons, because they have the biggest weapons.

Obviously, but the threat of nuclear annihilation has limited the scope of confrontation between the great powers to proxy wars.

No problems with the historical facts you cite.

The point made is that the just war principle of a reasonable chance of success required in conducting an ongoing war against an unjust aggressor in Churchill's and Zelensky's calculus are similar in that the necessary cooperation from the U.S., requested and denied, was still believed to be forthcoming.


The U.S. involvement at this point is quite similar to the U.S. involvement in WWII until 1941, e.g., embargo on oil and gas to Japan, freezing of the Axis powers assets in the U.S., weapons shipments to the Allies but no declaration of war against the unjust aggressor.

If you’re seriously suggesting the US formally declare war on Russia, that would be an insane escalation since the US hasn’t officially declared war since 1941, and the Russian Federation has not formally declared war on Ukraine. Such an act of provocation would likely lead to an immediate pre-emptive nuclear first strike which would exterminate the majority of our population; of course we have Credible Second Strike capability with which we could and would retaliate, killing most of their people, but in the ensuing nuclear holocaust it seems unlikely Ukraine would benefit from such a scenario.

When the Pentagon opposes even limited actions like a no-fly zone, we should listen to them. Its not as though they are known to decline an opportunity for military intervention and budgetary increases.

But doing something like formally declaring war would possibly lead to the extermination of the human race, and certainly, it would kill hundreds of millions. The lucky ones would be those in closest proximity to the aiming points of the weapons, because the massive overpressure from the air blast combined with the intense heat would result in instant death. As for those further out, such as in the suburbs of a major city, well, have you ever seen a documentary on radiation poisoning caused by Hiroshima and Nagasaki? Of course, thermonuclear weapons are cleaner, but they are not entirely clean, since they rely on a fissile core as the first stage of the device, which detonates and activates the fusion stages. This still releases deadly radiation and propagates it over a vast instance; in the aftermath of the mishap in testing the first ever nuclear weapon at Bikini Atoll, where the weapon turned out to be much more powerful than projected, nearby Pacific Islanders had to be evacuated and the crew of a Japanese fishing boat unfortunate enough to be downwind of the blast experienced radiation sickness.

Indeed there is an entire field known as Health Physics which exists to study the impact of radiation on the body. Its worth reading up on. Because if you seriously want the Congress of these United States to declare war on what is believed to be the most potent nuclear adversary, I think you should be anle to explain the difference, for example, between Alpha, Beta, and Gamma radiation. Also you should know more about the nuclear capabilities of Russia, whose Strategic Rocket Forces and other nuclear forces are already on alert, and whose nuclear command and control infrastructure seems kind of sketchy, to the point where even at our current level of involvement, the possibility of an accidental pre-emptive launch cannot be excluded (consider the Soviets nearly nuked us by accident due to a software glitch in the early 1980s, there is a documentary on the officer who refused to give the confirmation order to return fire, called The Man Who Saved the World, which is harrowing and worth a view; he of course was fired and died in poverty around 2010, since this was the Sovietsky Soyuza, and he did violate procedures, which was a cardinal sin).
 
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Hans Blaster

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Obviously, but the threat of nuclear annihilation has limited the scope of confrontation between the great powers to proxy wars.

Your formulation was that the proxy (fighting the superpower) should surrender, was it not? That's what you want Ukraine to do is it not?
 
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o_mlly

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If you’re seriously suggesting the US formally declare war on Russia ...
I think you have misread my posts as the suggestion you infer is in contradiction to the point being made.

To justify a war in just war theory, the defending country must reasonably judge that in conducting the war, the defending country will prevail against the unjust aggressor. I believe that Putin knows the just war theory quite well. While he does not subscribe to it, he relies on the hope that the U.S. will.
 
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The Liturgist

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Your formulation was that the proxy (fighting the superpower) should surrender, was it not? That's what you want Ukraine to do is it not?

Ukraine isn’t a viable site for proxy war because its too close to Russia. It would be like if Russia invaded Finland or Sweden (intentionally invaded Sweden; a navigation error by one of their submarines led to the incident a few years ago the Swedes called, with gloriously dry Nordic humor, “The Hunt for Reds in October.”)
 
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Hans Blaster

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Ukraine isn’t a viable site for proxy war because its too close to Russia. It would be like if Russia invaded Finland or Sweden (intentionally invaded Sweden; a navigation error by one of their submarines led to the incident a few years ago the Swedes called, with gloriously dry Nordic humor, “The Hunt for Reds in October.”)

Vietnam was "right next to" China and Korea was "right next to" the USSR. (China fought openly in the Korean war, not as a proxy.)

Did you know it is harder to invade countries you (or your allies) don't border?
 
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Aryeh Jay

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Did you know it is harder to invade countries you (or your allies) don't border?

What?

Next I suppose you will be telling us to never get involved in a land war in Asia.
 
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The Liturgist

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Vietnam was "right next to" China and Korea was "right next to" the USSR. (China fought openly in the Korean war, not as a proxy.)

Did you know it is harder to invade countries you (or your allies) don't border?

Respectfully, China in the 1950s was not China today. Russia has substantial problems with force projection outside their sphere of influence, but this does not preclude strategic nuclear bombardment, where they and the US have the most weapons, usually targeted at each other.

By the way, I am not a Putin apologist - I am disturbed by reports of the use of thermobaric weapons in civilian populated areas, something which is a war crime, and I am sincerely worried that a malfunction in some aging poorly maintained component of their “dead hand” system or other launch detection and permissive action link infrastructure increases the risk of a semi-accidental launch, for example, due to spurious detection of a non-existent US launch.
 
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Hans Blaster

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Let's try this proxy thing again...

Ukraine isn’t a viable site for proxy war because its too close to Russia. It would be like if Russia invaded Finland or Sweden (intentionally invaded Sweden; a navigation error by one of their submarines led to the incident a few years ago the Swedes called, with gloriously dry Nordic humor, “The Hunt for Reds in October.”)

If Ukraine is too close to Russia for a proxy war, what country do you suggest should host?
 
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Bradskii

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Just war theory requires that the defending country make a prudential judgement that it can prevail in the conflict.

I came across this again when looking for another post and it's been niggling me. Does the above mean that in your opinion (or 'according to just war theory') if Country A declares war on Country B and A would obviously win the war, then Country B must immediately surrender?

I don't want to go all John Wayne on this, but there is the concept of preferring to die on one's feet rather than live on one's knees. And that's a threat that is required to be made to any aggressor. To promise that their certain victory will come at a cost. The very reason why the US lost in Vietnam was that the Vietnamese were prepared to suffer much greater casualties then the Americans.
 
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