Let's Keep an Eye on Texas and Mississippi

The Barbarian

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The top 8 states with the highest 7-day moving average of daily new cases/100,000 are all states with mask mandates.

States with the highest infection rates per 100,000 residents:
North Dakota 133,455 no mask mandate
South Dakota 131,092 no mask mandate
Rhode Island 126,528 mask mandate
Utah 119, 087 mask mandate
Iowa 118,533 no mask mandate
Tennessee 117,385 no mask mandate
Arizona 114,957 no mask mandate
Oklahoma 110,046 no mask mandate
Arkansas 108,123 mask mandate
Nebraska 106,788 no mask mandate

Seven of the ten worst have no mask mandates.

States with the lowest infection rates per 100,000 residents:
Hawaii 20,377 mask mandate
Vermont 28,589 mask mandate
Maine 36186 mask mandate
Oregon 38,340 mask mandate
Washington 46,478 mask mandate
New Hampshire 59,388 mask mandate
D.C. 61,471 mask mandate
Maryland 66,280 mask mandate
Michigan 69,776 mask mandate
Virginia 70,994 mask mandate

Ten of the ten best have mask mandates

For the United States as a whole: 92,364
 
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probinson

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Now let's look at what's happening RIGHT NOW.

The top 8 states in highest 7-day moving averages of new daily infections/100,000 are ALL states that have mask mandates. Any thoughts on why that might be the case?

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Hammster

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You know, not long ago, someone was accusing me of cherry-picking favorable times for comparison, and ignoring the entire record...

You remember that?
Just because it’s currently favorable doesn’t mean it’s cherry-picked. I mean, why look at two months ago?
 
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The Barbarian

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Just because it’s currently favorable doesn’t mean it’s cherry-picked. I mean, why look at two months ago?

To see how states with mask mandates have done, compared to those without. As you see, they generally did a lot better. Seven of the ten states with the highest infection rates had no mask mandates, and ten of the ten states with the lowest infection rates have mask mandates. Each state had its own curves of highs and lows, so the dataset on how each state did during the entire pandemic is a much better metric.
 
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probinson

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Just because it’s currently favorable doesn’t mean it’s cherry-picked. I mean, why look at two months ago?

Because it's more favorable to his argument.

He thinks I'm cherry-picking data, but I'm not. My argument all along has been that masks really haven't made a correlated impact, much less shown any causation. Sometimes the states that have mask mandates fare better, sometimes worse. This is easily observable to anyone who can read a chart.

The fact of the matter is (and he knows this), there are COUNTLESS measures that states tried, from masking to lockdowns to curfews to shutting down indoor dining to not allowing you to order beer without also ordering food (yes, this happened in PA), to not allowing them to turn on the TV in restaurants (the wisdom of California). But MASKS! ... because he says so.

Pay no attention to the fact that states with mask mandates currently have the highest 7-day moving average of new daily infections while states that don't have far less! This is irrelevant! Masks work, darn it, because we say they do! And any data that calls into question this undying belief in masks is to be discarded immediately!
 
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The Barbarian

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Why consider the entire record?

Because it's more favorable to his argument.

Yep. Not just selected times, but the entire pandemic. How did mask mandates affect infection rates? Here it is:

States infection rates per 100,000 residents:
Hawaii 20,377 mask mandate
Vermont 28,589 mask mandate
Maine 36186 mask mandate
Oregon 38,340 mask mandate
Washington 46,478 mask mandate
New Hampshire 59,388 mask mandate
D.C. 61,471 mask mandate
Maryland 66,280 mask mandate
Michigan 69,776 mask mandate
Virginia 70,994 mask mandate
West Virginia 77,060 mask mandate
Pennsylvania 77,615 mask mandate
Colorado 78,304 mask mandate
Alaska 80642 no mask mandate
Connecticut 84,051 mask mandate
North Carolina 85, 631 mask mandate
Ohio 85,652 mask mandate
Massachusetts 89,654 mask mandate
Minnesota 89, 789 mask mandate
New Mexico 90,562 mask mandate
California 92,270 mask mandate
Missouri 93,016 no mask mandate
Florida 93,642 county mask mandates
Kentucky 94,260 mask mandate

New York 94,719 mask mandate
Louisiana 94,878 mask mandate
Delaware 94,919 mask mandate
Wyoming 96,292 no mask mandate
Montana 96,463 no mask mandate
Illinois 96520 mask mandate
Nevada 97,831 mask mandate
New Jersey 97,840 mask mandate
Wisconsin 98,373 mask mandate
Georgia 98,554 no mask mandate
Idaho 99,470 no mask mandate
Indiana 100,772 mask mandate
Mississippi 101,787 No mask mandate
Kansas 103,603 mask mandate

Alabama 104,377 mask mandate
South Carolina 105,308 no mask mandate
Texas 106,364 no mask mandate
Nebraska 106,788 no mask mandate
Arkansas 108,123 mask mandate

Oklahoma 110,046 no mask mandate
Arizona 114,957 no mask mandate
Tennessee 117,385 no mask mandate
Iowa 118,533 no mask mandate
Utah 119, 087 mask mandate

Rhode Island 126,528 mask mandate
South Dakota 131,092 no mask mandate
North Dakota 133,455 no mask mandate

Notice where the red (no mask) states cluster.
Seven of the ten states with the highest infection rates have no mask mandates.
Twenty of the twenty-one states with the lowest infection rates have mask mandates.
Only one state without a mask mandate has an infection rate below the national average.


Alaska, at fourteenth lowest, is the state with the lowest infection rate that lacks a mask mandate

He thinks I'm cherry-picking data, but I'm not. My argument all along has been that masks really haven't made a correlated impact, much less shown any causation.

See above. You'd have to be pretty resistant to reality to deny it.

Sometimes the states that have mask mandates fare better, sometimes worse.

As you learned,
Seven of the ten states with the highest infection rates have no mask mandates.
Twenty of the twenty-one states with the lowest infection rates have mask mandates.


This is easily observable to anyone who can read.

But MASKS! ... because he says so.

Because the data show that states with mask mandates do better as a group than states that don't.

And yes, cherry-picking when particular states are doing better or worse then they have before, doesn't erase which states have lower infection rates.

This is irrelevant!

No, infection rates are the measure of mask effectiveness. No point in denying it.

Masks work, darn it,

Yep. As you see, the data are very clear on this. Look at the difference between states with the highest infection rates and those with the lowest infection rates. Not one state in the thirteen states with lowest infection rates lacked a mask mandate.

You'd probably do better with fewer exclamation points, and more effort trying to find a plausible explanation for the difference in outcomes for states with and without mask mandates.
 
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Hammster

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To see how states with mask mandates have done, compared to those without. As you see, they generally did a lot better. Seven of the ten states with the highest infection rates had no mask mandates, and ten of the ten states with the lowest infection rates have mask mandates. Each state had its own curves of highs and lows, so the dataset on how each state did during the entire pandemic is a much better metric.
It’s not cherry-picking to use the most recent data. It’s just using the most recent data.
 
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Andrewn

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My argument all along has been that masks really haven't made a correlated impact, much less shown any causation. Sometimes the states that have mask mandates fare better, sometimes worse.
Of course, population intelligently following the mask mandates makes a big difference.

Infection rates are obviously affected by frequency of testing and college-student behavior. So, I'd rather look at deaths / 1M pop, and the best states have been:

Maine, New Hampshire, Vermont, Utah, Oregon, Washington, Alaska, Hawaii.
 
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The Barbarian

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It’s not cherry-picking to use the most recent data. It’s just using the most recent data.

The best thing to do, is use all the data. Who happens to be moving up or down at any particular moment, is less informative than how they did overall. But sometimes, it's hard to find anything happy about one's overall performance. Then "but right now,we're doing a little better" can be the only good news. As in this case.

Infection rates are obviously affected by frequency of testing and college-student behavior. So, I'd rather look at deaths / 1M pop, and the best states have been:

Maine, New Hampshire, Vermont, Utah, Oregon, Washington, Alaska, Hawaii.

All but one of which has mask mandates. Yes, that's a pretty good measure. As you might expect, death rates follow infection rates.
 
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Hammster

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The best thing to do, is use all the data. Who happens to be moving up or down at any particular moment, is less informative than how they did overall.
Only if you have an agenda.
 
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grasping the after wind

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Liberty in Texas is a good thing.

The best estimate is about 11 years. But it's coming.


Texas Turning Blue: Why the GOP is losing the Lone Star State
Conservative News Where Truth Matters

Texas Turning Blue: Why the GOP is losing the Lone Star State

Barabrian seems to be saying that when Texas turns blue in about 11 years all liberty will then end.
 
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Hammster

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The Barbarian

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Barabrian seems to be saying that when Texas turns blue in about 11 years all liberty will then end.

If you think corruption, voter suppression frauds, and the like are "liberty", maybe so. But Texans are increasingly tired of the republicans in government failing to do the necessary things to protect the state, while passing laws about what music should be played before basketball games.

I figure it will take just over a decade to put an end to that kind of tomfoolery.
 
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The Barbarian

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Ah. I guess some think that’s good

The disaster this winter, caused by republican failure to regulate utilities adequately is an example of the way the republicans in Texas have become weak and corrupt.
 
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Hammster

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The disaster this winter, caused by republican failure to regulate utilities adequately is an example of the way the republicans in Texas have become weak and corrupt.
And guess what happens when you have liberty?
 
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Hammster

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Maybe social distancing is more effective than masks. It seems to me it would have to be. No contact no infection. But I don't think there are stats on SD.
There’s no real science, either.
 
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The Barbarian

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The best thing to do, is use all the data. Who happens to be moving up or down at any particular moment, is less informative than how they did overall.

Only if you have an agenda.

Not unless "trying to find how each state did in controlling infections" is an agenda. Each state has ups and downs, so anyone with an agenda to hide the truth can cherry pick a moment when the changes fit his agenda. On the other hand, comparing the total infection rates over the pandemic gives you an accurate measure of how each state actually performed.

Turns out the average infection rate for states without mask mandates is around 103,000/1,000,000.

The average infection rate for states with mask mandates is around 70,000/1,000,000, or just a bit over two-thirds of the rate of states without mask mandates.

Which is pretty much what you'd expect, if masks did make a difference. And, as you have seen, deaths pretty much track with infections. Would you like to see that?
 
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