Let's Keep an Eye on Texas and Mississippi

The Barbarian

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There’s no real science, either.

Well, let's take a look. Over a year ago, scientists predicted the results we see in the comparison of states with and without mask mandates.
Respirology. 2020 Apr 30
Rationale for universal face masks in public against COVID‐19
Anthony Paulo Sunjaya, MD, SM 1 and Christine Jenkins, MD, AM, FRACP 1


...Weighing up all these considerations, there is modest evidence to support widespread community use of universal masking, which includes cloth masks to help reduce transmission of SARS‐CoV‐2. It will be important to examine evidence from countries such as China, Hong Kong and Singapore, where the majority of residents (as high as 98%) use masks in public, and where to a significant extent, COVID was contained in combination with known effective strategies.

The theoretical rationale discussed here suggests that along with evidence‐based recommendations such as physical distancing and maintaining hand hygiene, universal masking may help in reducing droplet‐based transmission of COVID and contribute to flattening and shortening the curve.

States with mask mandates had significantly lower infection rates as predicted. But also as predicted, masks were not completely effective. They were more effective in stopping influenza infections, which is consistent with the findings that the COVID-19 virus is more infectious than influenza. Which means that a smaller minimum infectious dose exists for COVID-19. And that would explain the significant reduction in infections for states with mask mandates, albeit not complete protection.

Which, as I wrote, is consistent with the predictions based on experimental results.


 
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Hammster

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Well, let's take a look. Over a year ago, scientists predicted the results we see in the comparison of states with and without mask mandates.
Respirology. 2020 Apr 30
Rationale for universal face masks in public against COVID‐19

Anthony Paulo Sunjaya, MD, SM 1 and Christine Jenkins, MD, AM, FRACP 1

...Weighing up all these considerations, there is modest evidence to support widespread community use of universal masking, which includes cloth masks to help reduce transmission of SARS‐CoV‐2. It will be important to examine evidence from countries such as China, Hong Kong and Singapore, where the majority of residents (as high as 98%) use masks in public, and where to a significant extent, COVID was contained in combination with known effective strategies.

The theoretical rationale discussed here suggests that along with evidence‐based recommendations such as physical distancing and maintaining hand hygiene, universal masking may help in reducing droplet‐based transmission of COVID and contribute to flattening and shortening the curve.

States with mask mandates had significantly lower infection rates as predicted. But also as predicted, masks were not completely effective. They were more effective in stopping influenza infections, which is consistent with the findings that the COVID-19 virus is more infectious than influenza. Which means that a smaller minimum infectious dose exists for COVID-19. And that would explain the significant reduction in infections for states with mask mandates, albeit not complete protection.


Which, as I wrote, is consistent with the predictions based on experimental results.
What does that have to do with social distancing?
 
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The Barbarian

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The best thing to do, is use all the data. Who happens to be moving up or down at any particular moment, is less informative than how they did overall.

Not really

Yes, it's a fact, because...

While each state has it's ups and downs, confidence in a statistical result not being due to random variation increases as the sample size increases. So the results over the entire period are more informative than the results of any shorter period.

The larger the sample size is the smaller the effect size that can be detected. The reverse is also true; small sample sizes can detect large effect sizes. While researchers generally have a strong idea of the effect size in their planned study it is in determining an appropriate sample size that often leads to an underpowered study. This poses both scientific and ethical issues for researchers.

A study that has a sample size which is too small may produce inconclusive results and could also be considered unethical, because exposing human subjects or lab animals to the possible risks associated with research is only justifiable if there is a realistic chance that the study will yield useful information.
Why is Sample Size important?
 
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The Barbarian

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What does that have to do with social distancing?

Social distancing adds another layer of protection.

Hand-washing is useful, but turns out to be less important for COVID-19 than for influenza, because the virus seems to be inactivated more quickly on most surfaces than influenza virus. That prediction turned out to be less accurate than the prediction that cloth masks would reduce infection.
 
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Hammster

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Social distancing adds another layer of protection.

Hand-washing is useful, but turns out to be less important for COVID-19 than for influenza, because the virus seems to be inactivated more quickly on most surfaces than influenza virus. That prediction turned out to be less accurate than the prediction that cloth masks would reduce infection.
Where’s the science on social distancing? That was the context of my post.
 
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The Barbarian

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And guess what happens when you have liberty?

Former republican officials have to find productive work. The state stops trying to regulate basketball games and who goes to the toilet, when. And it starts doing things like making sure the power grid actually works even when the weather is bad.

Stuff like that. We'd just like them to start doing their jobs and stop intruding into our private lives.
 
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Hammster

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Former republican officials have to find productive work. The state stops trying to regulate basketball games and who goes to the toilet, when. And it starts doing things like making sure the power grid actually works even when the weather is bad.

Stuff like that. We'd just like them to start doing their jobs and stop intruding into our private lives.
That’s not true. You want mask mandates.
 
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probinson

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The title of this thread is "Let's Keep an Eye on Texas and Mississippi", and it was originally posted on Mar 3.

Today is March 23, twenty days after the OP.

Texas currently has a lower 7-day moving average of new infections/100,000 than New Jersey, Rhode Island, Michigan, New York, Delaware, Connecticut, Massachusetts, Pennsylvania, South Carolina, South Dakota, Florida, Minnesota, New Hampshire, Vermont, West Virginia, Tennessee, Idaho, North Carolina, Virginia, Alaska, Georgia, Maryland, Colorado, Washington D.C., Maine, Kentucky, Illinois, Utah, Ohio, Iowa and North Dakota.

Mississippi currently has a lower 7-day moving average of new infections/100,000 than New Jersey, Rhode Island, Michigan, New York, Delaware, Connecticut, Massachusetts, Pennsylvania, South Carolina, South Dakota, Florida, Minnesota, New Hampshire, Vermont, West Virginia, Tennessee, Idaho, North Carolina, Virginia, Alaska, Georgia, Maryland, Colorado, Washington D.C., Maine, Kentucky, Illinois, Utah, Ohio, Iowa, North Dakota, Texas, Nebraska, Kansas, Montana, Indiana, Louisiana, Alabama, Washington, Wisconsin and Wyoming.
 
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Hammster

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The title of this thread is "Let's Keep an Eye on Texas and Mississippi", and it was originally posted on Mar 3.

Today is March 23, twenty days after the OP.

Texas currently has a lower 7-day moving average of new infections/100,000 than New Jersey, Rhode Island, Michigan, New York, Delaware, Connecticut, Massachusetts, Pennsylvania, South Carolina, South Dakota, Florida, Minnesota, New Hampshire, Vermont, West Virginia, Tennessee, Idaho, North Carolina, Virginia, Alaska, Georgia, Maryland, Colorado, Washington D.C., Maine, Kentucky, Illinois, Utah, Ohio, Iowa and North Dakota.

Mississippi currently has a lower 7-day moving average of new infections/100,000 than New Jersey, Rhode Island, Michigan, New York, Delaware, Connecticut, Massachusetts, Pennsylvania, South Carolina, South Dakota, Florida, Minnesota, New Hampshire, Vermont, West Virginia, Tennessee, Idaho, North Carolina, Virginia, Alaska, Georgia, Maryland, Colorado, Washington D.C., Maine, Kentucky, Illinois, Utah, Ohio, Iowa, North Dakota, Texas, Nebraska, Kansas, Montana, Indiana, Louisiana, Alabama, Washington, Wisconsin and Wyoming.
So they are trending in the right direction.
 
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probinson

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So they are trending in the right direction.
It would appear so. And that is with restrictions lifted.

As the current data shows, restrictions don't matter. The states with masking and more restrictions are currently experiencing higher levels of infection. No denying reality, or so I've been told. :wink:
 
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The Barbarian

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Where’s the science on social distancing? That was the context of my post.

Ah, it goes back a long time. When I was an undergraduate in microbiology, sampling around standing people showed that there is a cloud of microorganisms circulating upward and then down, around the person by convection of body heat.

But even before that, surgeons work masks because experimental evidence showed that they projected a cloud of microorganisms from their mouths and noses.

The evidence showed that normal breathing projected the microbes out a few feet from the person's face.

But a recent study found that six feet is not significantly safer than three feet for COVID-19, at least for school age children.

Clinical Infectious Diseases 10 March 2021
Effectiveness of three versus six feet of physical distancing for controlling spread of COVID-19 among primary and secondary students and staff: A retrospective, state-wide cohort study
...
Among 251 eligible school districts, 537,336 students and 99,390 staff attended in-person instruction during the 16-week study period, representing 6,400,175 student learning weeks and 1,342,574 staff learning weeks. Student case rates were similar in the 242 districts with ≥3 feet versus ≥6 feet of physical distancing between students (IRR, 0.891, 95% CI, 0.594-1.335); results were similar after adjusting for community incidence (adjusted IRR, 0.904, 95% CI, 0.616-1.325). Cases among school staff in districts with ≥3 feet versus ≥6 feet of physical distancing were also similar (IRR, 1.015, 95% CI, 0.754-1.365).

Conclusions
Lower physical distancing policies can be adopted in school settings with masking mandates without negatively impacting student or staff safety.


 
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The Barbarian

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So they are trending in the right direction.

Yes. While they messed up in the pandemic (and the infection rates show this) they are trending downward now.

Mississippi infection rate: 101,787 Texas infection rate: 95,233 National rate: 92,386

That's happened twice before, for each of them, and the virus came back worse than before. But this time, we have vaccines being given, so hopefully that won't happen again.
 
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The Barbarian

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That’s not true. You want mask mandates.

It's a bit late, we've already had too many deaths. The good news, is that most Texans seem to be doing the right thing anyway, and are wearing masks in public. That and the growing number of people vaccinated, might just turn it around. And businesses are telling the Governor, "do what you want, we're doing the right thing and requiring masks."

But then this is Texas. Just because some fool in Austin wants us to do something stupid, doesn't mean we will.
 
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Hammster

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Ah, it goes back a long time. When I was an undergraduate in microbiology, sampling around standing people showed that there is a cloud of microorganisms circulating upward and then down, around the person by convection of body heat.

But even before that, surgeons work masks because experimental evidence showed that they projected a cloud of microorganisms from their mouths and noses.

The evidence showed that normal breathing projected the microbes out a few feet from the person's face.

But a recent study found that six feet is not significantly safer than three feet for COVID-19, at least for school age children.

Clinical Infectious Diseases 10 March 2021
Effectiveness of three versus six feet of physical distancing for controlling spread of COVID-19 among primary and secondary students and staff: A retrospective, state-wide cohort study
...

Among 251 eligible school districts, 537,336 students and 99,390 staff attended in-person instruction during the 16-week study period, representing 6,400,175 student learning weeks and 1,342,574 staff learning weeks. Student case rates were similar in the 242 districts with ≥3 feet versus ≥6 feet of physical distancing between students (IRR, 0.891, 95% CI, 0.594-1.335); results were similar after adjusting for community incidence (adjusted IRR, 0.904, 95% CI, 0.616-1.325). Cases among school staff in districts with ≥3 feet versus ≥6 feet of physical distancing were also similar (IRR, 1.015, 95% CI, 0.754-1.365).

Conclusions
Lower physical distancing policies can be adopted in school settings with masking mandates without negatively impacting student or staff safety.
Odd, then, that 3 feet is now okay.
 
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Hammster

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It's a bit late, we've already had too many deaths. The good news, is that most Texans seem to be doing the right thing anyway, and are wearing masks in public. That and the growing number of people vaccinated, might just turn it around. And businesses are telling the Governor, "do what you want, we're doing the right thing and requiring masks."

But then this is Texas. Just because some fool in Austin wants us to do something stupid, doesn't mean we will.
Well, sum y’all wore masks. So that blows that theory. ^_^
 
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The Barbarian

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Well, sum y’all wore masks. So that blows that theory.

Some. So as you might expect, Texas has a higher infection rate than states with statewide mandates, but still lower than most non-mandate states.

Florida has a similar situation. It looks better than most non-mandate states, but many Florida counties imposed their own mandates. With similar results, high infection rates, but not as bad as states where there were no mandates at all.
 
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probinson

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Odd, then, that 3 feet is now okay.

But only in schools!

You see, the virus knows that it's in a school building, and it will abide by the 3 foot rule while in an elementary school. Oh, but DEFINITELY NOT a high school, and CERTAINLY NOT a grocery store! How is this possible you ask? Well, it's very complicated. Only "experts" can understand this complex, nuanced "science".
 
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The Barbarian

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Odd, then, that 3 feet is now okay.

Nope. Just a larger sample than previous studies, and a tighter result. Just like the difference between looking at a brief period as opposed to getting data from the entire pandemic period.

COVID-19 is pretty new, and so we've learned more about it.
 
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The Barbarian

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You see, the virus knows that it's in a school building, and it will abide by the 3 foot rule while in an elementary school.

As the study indicated, the results are only valid for the tested population, kids of school age. But it's probably a pretty good indicator of general application.

You've got it backwards. It's not about the virus, it's about the people exposed.

Well, it's very complicated.

For some folks, I guess. I'm thinking most people could figure it out.
 
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probinson

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Maybe we need a medical-grade mask mandate, like Germany. That's worked well...

GermanyMaskMandate.jpg
GermanyLockdown.jpg
 
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