Post Brexit Britain

[mindlight]

Britain is on the brink of a major change of outlook as BREXIT completes at the end of the year with or without a trade agreement.

The plans outlined by the PM and his government are for a global, outward looking Britain no longer constrained by its EU relationship. But the lack of a trade agreement with the EU and the effects of the corona virus recession may impact Britain quite deeply.

Britain has traditionally been torn between 3 main focuses on the USA, on the Commonwealth and with Europe. The future vision for Britain will need to accomodate all of these. We also have emerging powers like China and India to accomodate in the new world order.

So my questions are these:

1) How will a Biden administration regard Britain and its estrangement from the EU
2) How will the Commonwealth relationship develop now that it is probably going to be more important to the UK
3) Will the EU relationship, tainted by tough negotiations and the reasons for BREXIT wither and die or continue to be significant

So positive or negative , I would be interested to hear your views on post BREXIT Britain as it begins this new chapter in its long and distinguished history.

 

[Francis Drake]

The EU is set to lose big time from Brexit, and many EU countries are terrified at losing the British market, and France in particular is terrified about losing fishing rights in British territorial waters.
When compared to the rest of the world, the EU is a shrinking market place for British goods, and the EU stands to lose far more than Britain from Brexit.
Despite this, the Commission have from the beginning, foolishly taken an arrogant and punitive attitude in the negotiations.

Personally, I look forward to a hard, no deal Brexit.

 

[High Fidelity]

Personally, I look forward to a hard, no deal Brexit.

Same. Should have been over years ago. The worst part in any of this has been the uncertainty. Even without a trade deal, at least businesses know where they stand and the lay of the land they're working in and adapt accordingly.

Sooner it's over the better.

 

[Lost4words]

Best thing ever is for the UK to leave the EU...

 

[lismore]

Should have been over years ago.

It's amazing that it's taken four chaotic years to bring us to this point when Gove, Johnson and Farage said it would be the easiest process in History.

 

[Goonie]

It's amazing that it's taken four chaotic years to bring us to this point when Gove, Johnson and Farage said it would be the easiest process in History.

Longest car crash in history.

 

[Jonathan Walkerin]

Seeing the interviews of some older people and Brexit it really looks like they imagine Britain will get their empire back overnight when the good old times return or something.

Reminiscent of people at Russia looking over the past on to Soviet Union with rose colored glasses how they were mighty, respected and feared when Stalin held the helm of the motherland.

While the reality seems to be more of that the farmers can’t get your average UK citizen to head over for some honest day on the field.

British workers reject fruit-picking jobs as Romanians flown in

Everyone with a taste knows why you were in the EU in the first place.
[URL='https://youtu.be/37iHSwA1SwE']
https://youtu.be/37iHSwA1SwE[/URL]

Let’s hope British comedy becomes a great export again apart from the current Brexit process which admittedly has more shenanigans on it than on all the episodes of Yes Mr minister.

 

[Goonie]

Invoking a fantasy Winston Churchill won’t help as Brexit becomes grim reality | Nick Cohen

 

[mindlight]

The EU is set to lose big time from Brexit, and many EU countries are terrified at losing the British market, and France in particular is terrified about losing fishing rights in British territorial waters.
When compared to the rest of the world, the EU is a shrinking market place for British goods, and the EU stands to lose far more than Britain from Brexit.
Despite this, the Commission have from the beginning, foolishly taken an arrogant and punitive attitude in the negotiations.

Personally, I look forward to a hard, no deal Brexit.

The EU has a Pandemic to worry about right now. But the potential loss of trade is significant without a change of attitude.

Fishing rights is complicated as fishing quotas have been sold to Spanish , Dutch and Icelandic companies. So it is not just a matter of EU negotiations but of how to "undo" those contracts or adjust them to a UK based fisheries policy.

 

[mindlight]

Same. Should have been over years ago. The worst part in any of this has been the uncertainty. Even without a trade deal, at least businesses know where they stand and the lay of the land they're working in and adapt accordingly.

Sooner it's over the better.

In a way the covid recession will mask the initial effects of BREXIT and the recovery from it may well mask the costs of BREXIT also. In the long run Britain will adapt and move on. What that looks like is still unclear.

 

[Goonie]

Britain is on the brink of a major change of outlook as BREXIT completes at the end of the year with or without a trade agreement.

The plans outlined by the PM and his government are for a global, outward looking Britain no longer constrained by its EU relationship. But the lack of a trade agreement with the EU and the effects of the corona virus recession may impact Britain quite deeply.

Britain has traditionally been torn between 3 main focuses on the USA, on the Commonwealth and with Europe. The future vision for Britain will need to accomodate all of these. We also have emerging powers like China and India to accomodate in the new world order.

So my questions are these:

1) How will a Biden administration regard Britain and its estrangement from the EU
2) How will the Commonwealth relationship develop now that it is probably going to be more important to the UK
3) Will the EU relationship, tainted by tough negotiations and the reasons for BREXIT wither and die or continue to be significant

So positive or negative , I would be interested to hear your views on post BREXIT Britain as it begins this new chapter in its long and distinguished history.

1. The UK is just as unlikely to get a good trade deal with Biden, as 'America First' Trump.
2.The commonwealth is far more interested in the larger markets of China, USA and to a lesser extent Europe to give their former oppressers(in the case of the non white members) to give a 4x in regard to the UK, though Canada has agreed to trade on the same terms they agreed with the EU.
3. If Tory brexiteers have anything to do with it no..

 

[mindlight]

Longest car crash in history.

Which is now coming to an end. It is no longer about the rights and wrongs of BREXIT, it is about dealing with the decision.

 

[Ophiolite]

Longest car crash in history.

It's not over till the fat lady sings.

Seeing the interviews of some older people and Brexit it really looks like they imagine Britain will get their empire back overnight when the good old times return or something.

Speaking as an older British person, while their views might be attributable to dementia it is more likely they were always detached from reality.

It's amazing that it's taken four chaotic years to bring us to this point when Gove, Johnson and Farage said it would be the easiest process in History.

Though not amazing to many who voted Remain.

The worst part in any of this has been the uncertainty.

I always thought the worst part was the stream of lies from the Leave promoters about what the UK would gain from the departure. In fairness, some of it wasn't lies, just gross incompetence.

 

[mindlight]

1. The UK is just as unlikely to get a good trade deal with Biden, as 'America First' Trump.
2.The commonwealth is far more interested in the larger markets of China, USA and to a lesser extent Europe to give their former oppressers(in the case of the non white members) to give a 4x in regard to the UK, though Canada has agreed to trade on the same terms they agreed with the EU.
3. If Tory brexiteers have anything to do with it no..

With Biden the military relationship and assets Britain provides are useful at a time when defence cuts are very likely and allies are of more importance. Also trade with Britain remains important so a deal works for America even if we end up with something like Canada or Mexico.

The Commonwealth markets are fast growing and our historical relationship counts for something. Africa especially.

Some kind of mutually beneficial trade deal needs to be worked out with the EU, they have more to lose as they have a surplus on this trade. Some of this trade is retrade through EU ports. Some of that can go through British ports directly in future. They may need to be some investment in port infrastructure

 

[mindlight]

Seeing the interviews of some older people and Brexit it really looks like they imagine Britain will get their empire back overnight when the good old times return or something.

Reminiscent of people at Russia looking over the past on to Soviet Union with rose colored glasses how they were mighty, respected and feared when Stalin held the helm of the motherland.

While the reality seems to be more of that the farmers can’t get your average UK citizen to head over for some honest day on the field.

British workers reject fruit-picking jobs as Romanians flown in

Everyone with a taste knows why you were in the EU in the first place.
https://youtu.be/37iHSwA1SwE

Let’s hope British comedy becomes a great export again apart from the current Brexit process which admittedly has more shenanigans on it than on all the episodes of Yes Mr minister.

The empires gone but the possibilities for global trade are still there.

Migrant labour has been important but the model of increasing population size rather than skill levels might not be the way forward

Better education and training and higher commensurate productivity could result in higher per capita income.

 

[Francis Drake]

It's amazing that it's taken four chaotic years to bring us to this point when Gove, Johnson and Farage said it would be the easiest process in History.

Haha, very amusing.
The only reason its taken so long is that for most of the time the negotiations were being conducted by Remainers who wanted to do Brexit in name only!

We could have walked away with no deal before the end of 2016, and traded with the EU on WTO terms.

 

[Francis Drake]

The EU has a Pandemic to worry about right now. But the potential loss of trade is significant without a change of attitude.

Fishing rights is complicated as fishing quotas have been sold to Spanish , Dutch and Icelandic companies. So it is not just a matter of EU negotiations but of how to "undo" those contracts or adjust them to a UK based fisheries policy.

Not so. There is no 'undoing' of contracts, they just come to a dead stop at the end of the year. And all countries of the EU know that fact.

If Britain had declared a hard no deal Brexit 4 years ago, and established a WTO trade relationship with the EU at the end of 2016, they would have been begging for fishing licences at any price within days.
The EU wouldn't dare punish our exporters because we import from the EU more than they import from us. A trade war would hurt them real bad.

 

[mindlight]

Not so. There is no 'undoing' of contracts, they just come to a dead stop at the end of the year. And all countries of the EU know that fact.

If Britain had declared a hard no deal Brexit 4 years ago, and established a WTO trade relationship with the EU at the end of 2016, they would have been begging for fishing licences at any price within days.
The EU wouldn't dare punish our exporters because we import from the EU more than they import from us. A trade war would hurt them real bad.

Think it is more legally complicated than that and that foreign companies may well sue. I wonder if a new version of the Cod wars will now ensue and whether the Royal Navy has a large enough number of ships to enforce new rules. Boris is planning on an expansion of the navy but it will be a while before that is a reality.

There is also the issue of who will take up the slack, do we even have enough boats any more to fish this for ourselves. More than half of Englands quotas are currently foreign owned. Most other EU countries have been far more nationalistic about their fishing fleets and not allowed foreign trawlers at all. Fishing could be a real example of where BREXIT means doing it ourselves but then finding we do not have the actual stuff in place to make that happen due to years of under investment and foreign reliance.

 

[Jonathan Walkerin]

Boris is planning on an expansion of the navy but it will be a while before that is a reality.

Few more Queen Elizabeth class carriers is exactly what is needed now to restore the Empire.

 

[mindlight]

Few more Queen Elizabeth class carriers is exactly what is needed now to restore the Empire.

We already have 2, now we need aircraft and escort vessels for these. Also the carrier platform itself needs better armaments as these are quite sparse at moment

The focus is less empire than helping friends, global presence, trade protection and NATO