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Post Brexit Britain

Discussion in 'International Politics' started by mindlight, Nov 21, 2020.

  1. mindlight

    mindlight See in the dark Supporter

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    Britain is on the brink of a major change of outlook as BREXIT completes at the end of the year with or without a trade agreement.

    The plans outlined by the PM and his government are for a global, outward looking Britain no longer constrained by its EU relationship. But the lack of a trade agreement with the EU and the effects of the corona virus recession may impact Britain quite deeply.

    Britain has traditionally been torn between 3 main focuses on the USA, on the Commonwealth and with Europe. The future vision for Britain will need to accomodate all of these. We also have emerging powers like China and India to accomodate in the new world order.

    So my questions are these:

    1) How will a Biden administration regard Britain and its estrangement from the EU
    2) How will the Commonwealth relationship develop now that it is probably going to be more important to the UK
    3) Will the EU relationship, tainted by tough negotiations and the reasons for BREXIT wither and die or continue to be significant

    So positive or negative , I would be interested to hear your views on post BREXIT Britain as it begins this new chapter in its long and distinguished history.
     
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  2. Francis Drake

    Francis Drake Returning adventurer.

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    The EU is set to lose big time from Brexit, and many EU countries are terrified at losing the British market, and France in particular is terrified about losing fishing rights in British territorial waters.
    When compared to the rest of the world, the EU is a shrinking market place for British goods, and the EU stands to lose far more than Britain from Brexit.
    Despite this, the Commission have from the beginning, foolishly taken an arrogant and punitive attitude in the negotiations.

    Personally, I look forward to a hard, no deal Brexit.
     
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  3. High Fidelity

    High Fidelity Well-Known Member Supporter

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    Same. Should have been over years ago. The worst part in any of this has been the uncertainty. Even without a trade deal, at least businesses know where they stand and the lay of the land they're working in and adapt accordingly.

    Sooner it's over the better.
     
  4. Lost4words

    Lost4words Jesus I Trust In You Supporter

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    Best thing ever is for the UK to leave the EU...
     
  5. lismore

    lismore Maranatha

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    It's amazing that it's taken four chaotic years to bring us to this point when Gove, Johnson and Farage said it would be the easiest process in History. :)
     
  6. Goonie

    Goonie Not so Mystic Mog. Supporter

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    Longest car crash in history.
     
  7. Jonathan Walkerin

    Jonathan Walkerin Well-Known Member

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    Seeing the interviews of some older people and Brexit it really looks like they imagine Britain will get their empire back overnight when the good old times return or something.

    Reminiscent of people at Russia looking over the past on to Soviet Union with rose colored glasses how they were mighty, respected and feared when Stalin held the helm of the motherland.

    While the reality seems to be more of that the farmers can’t get your average UK citizen to head over for some honest day on the field.

    British workers reject fruit-picking jobs as Romanians flown in

    Everyone with a taste knows why you were in the EU in the first place.

    https://youtu.be/37iHSwA1SwE


    Let’s hope British comedy becomes a great export again apart from the current Brexit process which admittedly has more shenanigans on it than on all the episodes of Yes Mr minister.
     
  8. Goonie

    Goonie Not so Mystic Mog. Supporter

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  9. mindlight

    mindlight See in the dark Supporter

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    The EU has a Pandemic to worry about right now. But the potential loss of trade is significant without a change of attitude.

    Fishing rights is complicated as fishing quotas have been sold to Spanish , Dutch and Icelandic companies. So it is not just a matter of EU negotiations but of how to "undo" those contracts or adjust them to a UK based fisheries policy.
     
  10. mindlight

    mindlight See in the dark Supporter

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    In a way the covid recession will mask the initial effects of BREXIT and the recovery from it may well mask the costs of BREXIT also. In the long run Britain will adapt and move on. What that looks like is still unclear.
     
  11. Goonie

    Goonie Not so Mystic Mog. Supporter

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    1. The UK is just as unlikely to get a good trade deal with Biden, as 'America First' Trump.
    2.The commonwealth is far more interested in the larger markets of China, USA and to a lesser extent Europe to give their former oppressers(in the case of the non white members) to give a 4x in regard to the UK, though Canada has agreed to trade on the same terms they agreed with the EU.
    3. If Tory brexiteers have anything to do with it no..
     
  12. mindlight

    mindlight See in the dark Supporter

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    Which is now coming to an end. It is no longer about the rights and wrongs of BREXIT, it is about dealing with the decision.
     
  13. Ophiolite

    Ophiolite Recalcitrant Procrastinating Ape

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    It's not over till the fat lady sings.

    Speaking as an older British person, while their views might be attributable to dementia it is more likely they were always detached from reality.

    Though not amazing to many who voted Remain.

    I always thought the worst part was the stream of lies from the Leave promoters about what the UK would gain from the departure. In fairness, some of it wasn't lies, just gross incompetence.
     
  14. mindlight

    mindlight See in the dark Supporter

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    With Biden the military relationship and assets Britain provides are useful at a time when defence cuts are very likely and allies are of more importance. Also trade with Britain remains important so a deal works for America even if we end up with something like Canada or Mexico.

    The Commonwealth markets are fast growing and our historical relationship counts for something. Africa especially.

    Some kind of mutually beneficial trade deal needs to be worked out with the EU, they have more to lose as they have a surplus on this trade. Some of this trade is retrade through EU ports. Some of that can go through British ports directly in future. They may need to be some investment in port infrastructure
     
  15. mindlight

    mindlight See in the dark Supporter

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    The empires gone but the possibilities for global trade are still there.

    Migrant labour has been important but the model of increasing population size rather than skill levels might not be the way forward

    Better education and training and higher commensurate productivity could result in higher per capita income.
     
  16. Francis Drake

    Francis Drake Returning adventurer.

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    Haha, very amusing.
    The only reason its taken so long is that for most of the time the negotiations were being conducted by Remainers who wanted to do Brexit in name only!

    We could have walked away with no deal before the end of 2016, and traded with the EU on WTO terms.
     
  17. Francis Drake

    Francis Drake Returning adventurer.

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    Not so. There is no 'undoing' of contracts, they just come to a dead stop at the end of the year. And all countries of the EU know that fact.

    If Britain had declared a hard no deal Brexit 4 years ago, and established a WTO trade relationship with the EU at the end of 2016, they would have been begging for fishing licences at any price within days.
    The EU wouldn't dare punish our exporters because we import from the EU more than they import from us. A trade war would hurt them real bad.
     
  18. mindlight

    mindlight See in the dark Supporter

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    Think it is more legally complicated than that and that foreign companies may well sue. I wonder if a new version of the Cod wars will now ensue and whether the Royal Navy has a large enough number of ships to enforce new rules. Boris is planning on an expansion of the navy but it will be a while before that is a reality.

    There is also the issue of who will take up the slack, do we even have enough boats any more to fish this for ourselves. More than half of Englands quotas are currently foreign owned. Most other EU countries have been far more nationalistic about their fishing fleets and not allowed foreign trawlers at all. Fishing could be a real example of where BREXIT means doing it ourselves but then finding we do not have the actual stuff in place to make that happen due to years of under investment and foreign reliance.
     
  19. Jonathan Walkerin

    Jonathan Walkerin Well-Known Member

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    Few more Queen Elizabeth class carriers is exactly what is needed now to restore the Empire.
     
  20. mindlight

    mindlight See in the dark Supporter

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    We already have 2, now we need aircraft and escort vessels for these. Also the carrier platform itself needs better armaments as these are quite sparse at moment

    The focus is less empire than helping friends, global presence, trade protection and NATO
     
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