What Happens when Oil Runs Out?

[Monna]

Gasoline is mixed (5-10%) with ethylene

This was/is wrong. I apologise. The gasoline is mixed with ethanol, not ethylene.

 

[doubtingmerle]

Good to see that there are at least some efforts being made to prepare for the eventual and unavoidable depletion of this nonrenewable resource.

Yes, all effort to prepare for the unavoidable depletion are appreciated.

It is difficult for me to see how anything will replace the tremendous convenience we have with petroleum. There is nothing like putting 10 gallons in your tank and having at your command energy far beyond the dreams of people in the past. Nothing on the horizon has near the potential of gasoline.

Personally I fear that we are headed for a low energy era. Without gasoline we will likely head back to a life similar to the 18th and 19th century. Hopefully we can save computers and telecommunications. But we may be riding around in buggies as we email each other on our smart phones. I suspect we will be there in 100 years.

 

[morse86]

There is plenty of oil and natural resources in this world. Only the telievision and $cientist frauds wants to tell you it's going to run out.

Look at the interviews by decorated military hero - Richard Byrd who did the Antarctic expeditions in the 1930s. He said there are vast quantities of oil and other resources there....unlimited supply. I guess that's why all of the nations signed the antarctic treaty preventing anyone from exploring there (other than "guided tours")

 

[Monna]

Look at the interviews by decorated military hero - Richard Byrd who did the Antarctic expeditions in the 1930s. He said there are vast quantities of oil and other resources there....unlimited supply.

There are no such thing as unlimited supplies of non-renewable resources, in Antarctica or anywhere else. That's why they're call non-renewable.The fact that a decorated military hero said so (if indeed he did) doesn't make it true.

It is difficult for me to see how anything will replace the tremendous convenience we have with petroleum. There is nothing like putting 10 gallons in your tank and having at your command energy far beyond the dreams of people in the past. Nothing on the horizon has near the potential of gasoline.

Is it this pessimism that led you to call yourself doubtingmerle? If this is how you feel, I hope you are being a good steward of the petroleum products you still have access to.

 

[doubtingmerle]

There is plenty of oil and natural resources in this world. Only the telievision and $cientist frauds wants to tell you it's going to run out.

Look at the interviews by decorated military hero - Richard Byrd who did the Antarctic expeditions in the 1930s. He said there are vast quantities of oil and other resources there....unlimited supply. I guess that's why all of the nations signed the antarctic treaty preventing anyone from exploring there (other than "guided tours")

Richard Byrd? He died in 1957. How is he an expert on the available supply of oil today?

In the 50's, yes, it seemed like we were discovering oil everywhere we turned. We were discovering oil far faster than we used it. But things have changed. Oil discoveries have been declining for decades. We are now at a 70 year low in new discoveries, a rate that is far lower than what we consume. We are living off oil that was discovered in the past, not off new oil that is being discovered. And when we have used up the readily available oil from past discoveries, and are left with hard to get oil, that will be trouble for all.

See Oil Discoveries at 70-Year Low Signal Supply Shortfall Ahead .

 

[doubtingmerle]

Is it this pessimism that led you to call yourself doubtingmerle? If this is how you feel, I hope you are being a good steward of the petroleum products you still have access to.

And nice to meet you also. I don't think we have met before, but it does seem a little odd to me for you to begin a conversation by attacking the character of the person you meet.

Anyway, this is the paragraph to which you responded.

It is difficult for me to see how anything will replace the tremendous convenience we have with petroleum. There is nothing like putting 10 gallons in your tank and having at your command energy far beyond the dreams of people in the past. Nothing on the horizon has near the potential of gasoline.​

And I stand behind all three sentences there. They all seem obviously true to me. The only one that could even be disputed is the third sentence, where it depends on the meaning of "near the potential". I think we can all agree that petroleum products currently have the most potential for getting people and things from point A to point B. When gas runs out, there are plenty of options, but none that I see that has the potential and convenience of petroleum products. If you think there is, what is the alternative you have your hopes on?

 

[doubtingmerle]

This video provides a very informative explanation about what would occur once our oil runs out and concerning the alternatives that might be employed in order to get mankind on its feet once more industrially. The question is if indeed algae is the solution as the video indicates, why not being the shift over to it now? Why wait for a disaster to strike?

The short answer is money. We don't use algal fuel, because it is expensive.

The article you quote in the OP says this:

In 2013, Exxon Mobil Chairman and CEO Rex Tillerson said that after committing to spend up to $600 million over 10 years on development in a joint venture with J. Craig Venter’s Synthetic Genomics in 2009, Exxon pulled back after four years (and $100 million) when it realized that algae fuel is "probably further" than 25 years away from commercial viability.​

So does algae fuel have a possibility? Sure, Exxon Mobil spent $100 million over 4 years developing it. But they pulled back, realizing it won't be a viable fuel within the next 25 years. Now you may say they are wrong, but it would seem to me that, after spending that kind of money and time, they should know.

Your article does mention several companies that do sell alga oil. Good! I clicked on the first link. I found a company that sells it under the brand "Thrive Algae Oil". Oh good, not 25 years in the future, available today! Should I put some in my car? I did a search for Thrive Algae oil. Found this:

Amazon.com: thrive algae oil​

Oh dear. If I get it at Amazon, I have a choice between getting it "fresh" or buying the oil shown as a lead. I'll pick "fresh". Let's see: $24 for a pound of the stuff. That's about $150 a gallon. So even if this stuff worked in a car, I wouldn't be doing much driving at $150 a gallon.

Don't get me wrong. I do hope we find a way out of our dire situation. But clinging to algae fuel is a long shot. Unfortunately every other alternative I see out there does not compare with the value of petroleum.

 

[doubtingmerle]

About 12 years ago I was obsessed with this topic, and even formed some teams to go and brief some politicians here in Australia. It's not at all like the beginning of that documentary presents: just suddenly running out is a myth! Rather, it peaks and then - roughly speaking - goes into permanent decline.
Back in the 1950’s Hubbert predicted that American oil production would peak in 1970 and then begin a long journey of decline. How did he do it? He added up all the discovered oil, estimated the declining But now the debate is on about when world oil production will peak and head into permanent decline.

But this debate is almost irrelevant, as from a climate point of view we should not even be burning all the remaining oil!

Thanks for writing this informative post. I would like to respond to more of this post, but for now I will address this one point.

We are in a dire situation with oil. Most of the readily available oil is gone. What is left will be expensive to produce. If we do produce most of it and use it, the climate will be decimated.

In the age of Trump, it is doubtful the United States will do much of significance to fight climate change. And if the United States does nothing, then it hardly makes much difference if the rest of the world agreed to do something. So it is hard to see that we will do anything of significance to fight climate change. Of course after Trump the world could come to its senses, but it is hard to see how the lunacy will stop. So it seems to me we will burn every bit of oil and coal we can find, until people stop deny the problem.

So if we drill baby drill, and drive baby drive, and buy SUVs baby buy SUVS, until oil becomes too expensive, when does the price of oil force us to cut back, and oil peaks? It could be close. See http://richardheinberg.com/museletter-296-the-peak-oil-president . But this limit will eventually bring the suburban sprawl, drive to WalMart, era to a close. And when we are forced to get by with less oil, while population continues to rise, that is an event we are not prepared for.

So though it would be good to cut back for climate concerns, I don't see that happening. It will be forced on us.

 

[Monna]

And nice to meet you also. I don't think we have met before, but it does seem a little odd to me for you to begin a conversation by attacking the character of the person you meet.

I'm sorry Doubtingmerle that you felt so attacked and offended by my observation. That wasn't the intention. Since you wrote

It is difficult for me to see how anything will replace the tremendous convenience we have with petroleum.

and I happen not to find it difficult at all to see replacements, I saw your statement as pessimistic and I saw your name, and ... being Easter I thought of Doubting Thomas... and that's how it happened. Again, sorry, I apolgise. It was meant mostly "tongue in cheek."

I currently live in a country that already has electic vehicles using 'green' electricity, vehicles running on canola oil, on bio-diesel, on methane produced from sewage, even on hydrogen. I see the challenge rather being too much choice and fuel station chains facing difficulty in providing all the alternatives cost-effectively. The bio-diesel incidentally is produced in cooperation between an internation petroleum company and our forest industry using forestry wastes, so even if it's not algae, petroleum companies are making progress. It is mixed with ordinary diesel and requires no modification to engines. It is no more expensive at the pump than ordinaty diesel. As the conversion process technology improves and supplies increase, the proportion of bio-diesel will also increase. We have introduced renewable aviation fuel as well.

In this country a wider systemic approach has been taken, in which it is illegal to dump organic waste in landfill sites - in fact only 4% of all waste nationally ends up in landfills. New housing incorporates, I think you call them garbolators or something, so that all organic kitchen waste goes down the sink, to increase the raw material for bio-gas. In my own home we separate all organic waste for collection and transfer to a separate biofuel generator. There are many combined heat and electricity generating plants using other waste as raw material, so we use very little oil for heating buildings - my own apartment is heated (very effectively) by one of these waste-to-energy plants 20 kms away. Petroleum based fuels are taxed heavily, so our gasoline prices hover just below USD 2,00 per litre, so we tend not to drive carelessly. And our gasoline prices are not the most expensive in the region. Vehicles are taxed according to CO2 emission rates, so there is a huge pressure on car manufacturers to improve engine efficiency, with techologies like engine Stop and Go, etc etc. We have very few fossil fuel based electricity generating plants. Instead we have a lot of hydropower, wind and increasingly solar, and nuclear (which it is intended to phase out) sources of electricty.

Other organic material is composted and used to soil improvement and natural fertiliser - reducing our dependence on non-renewables for artifical fertilisers.

Meanwhile we have a very efficient public transit system, with all rail-based modes powered by electicity, and most buses already on alternative fuels (especially the sewage based bio-gas). Many of our municipalities are already pursuing internal policies to convert their own vehicle pools to renewable fuels. (Since municipalities cooperate across boundaries to establish the waste management companies, they have additional incentives to support these alternative fuels). So it is not at all difficult for me to see how petroleum (or coal) will be replaced as a transportation or even eletricity generating fuel.

 

[doubtingmerle]

I currently live in a country that already has electic vehicles using 'green' electricity, vehicles running on canola oil, on bio-diesel, on methane produced from sewage, even on hydrogen.

Very interesting. I see your profile says you are from Oicha Beni. I was not familiar with that, but it looks like it is a town in the Congo. Looking on the web for biofuels in Congo, I see a lot of hits, so that must be what we are talking about.

The bio-diesel incidentally is produced in cooperation between an internation petroleum company and our forest industry using forestry wastes, so even if it's not algae, petroleum companies are making progress. It is mixed with ordinary diesel and requires no modification to engines. It is no more expensive at the pump than ordinaty diesel. As the conversion process technology improves and supplies increase, the proportion of bio-diesel will also increase. We have introduced renewable aviation fuel as well.

I have been looking at this on the Internet, and see some hopeful claims about biofuels from the Congo. But I also see it is extremely controversial. The claim is that farmland is used to make biofuels for exporting, while the people starve for lack of food. Also there is a claim that rainforest is being chopped down to plant palm trees to make bio-diesel, harming the planet. See

Gunning for biofuels
Biofuels boom in Africa as British firms lead rush on land for plantations
Democratic Republic of Congo - BioenergyWiki

In America biodiesel is controversial, because it is said it could take as much diesel fuel to run the tractors and equipment as what we get out in ethanol.

So it would be interesting to see what the numbers are in the Congo. How much land must be taken from food production for each barrel produced? What is the energy return on investment, in terms of barrels produced per barrel spent? And does this require low wage farmworkers doing most of the work to make it productive? Would this even be profitable in a first world country?

In this country a wider systemic approach has been taken, in which it is illegal to dump organic waste in landfill sites - in fact only 4% of all waste nationally ends up in landfills. New housing incorporates, I think you call them garbolators or something, so that all organic kitchen waste goes down the sink, to increase the raw material for bio-gas. In my own home we separate all organic waste for collection and transfer to a separate biofuel generator. There are many combined heat and electricity generating plants using other waste as raw material, so we use very little oil for heating buildings - my own apartment is heated (very effectively) by one of these waste-to-energy plants 20 kms away.

Good to hear this.

Petroleum based fuels are taxed heavily, so our gasoline prices hover just below USD 2,00 per litre, so we tend not to drive carelessly.

I think this should be a world-wide policy, with revenues helping to compensate the poor. I like the basic cap and share policy. Those who use little fossil fuels are rewarded, and those who use much pay taxes on it.

Other organic material is composted and used to soil improvement and natural fertiliser - reducing our dependence on non-renewables for artifical fertilisers. Meanwhile we have a very efficient public transit system, with all rail-based modes powered by electicity, and most buses already on alternative fuels (especially the sewage based bio-gas).

Again, all good. But I still don't see how all this would replace gasoline in first world countries.

 

[Monna]

I see your profile says you are from Oicha Beni.

Oicha Beni (in the DRC) is my birth place. I do not live in the DRC now. I currently live in fact in a so-called "first world" country, but have had places I called home in at least 12 countries, and don't know how long I will stay where I am.

Regarding the biodiesel it " is formulated by processing black liquor from pulp mills." It "is molecularly identical to oil based diesel..." (I can mail you the source if you wish.) They have added an additional 5% canola-based biodiesel to the 15% from pine oil to provide a diesel at the pump that is 20% renewables sourced.

Ethanol, as you say is controversial, as it becomes part of the food-water-energy nexus. Where I live however, the competition for land between fuel crops and food crops is not such an issue as we produce more than we consume of grains and starches and our prices are not particularly competitive on the world market.

Meanwhile back in central Africa, the source for ethanol is more likely to be cassava than corn/maize. Cassava can grow in very poor soils, is extremely easy to cultivate and is commonly used by the very poor. While it is true that using it as stock for ethanol has raised its price as much as threefold, this can be a boon for the very poor who grow it, using what they produce first for their own food, and the surplus for a significant increase in income. Where the "evil" comes in is where large international agri-businesses come in and take over the land, throwing the poor off their traditional croplands and leaving them even worse off.

 

[yeshuaslavejeff]

It is difficult for me to see how anything will replace the tremendous convenience we have with petroleum.

As far as I know,
Hemp would have been just as convenient and a lot less expensive if it had been used and permitted(it was prevented because of powerful greed),
and would not have polluted the oceans, lakes, rivers, soil, land, food supply, etc etc etc (like oil and plastic and other solvents have tragically done, short and long term, and long long term likely) ...

 

[Radrook]

How dependent modern society is on petroleum fuel was painfully and personally demonstrated to me decades ago during a time when the prices of gasoline suddenly soared due to a crisis in the Middle East which caused a shortage. Unfortunately for me, I was living in Manhattan NYC at the time and was caught in a frenzy where people were stealing gasoline from cars via siphoning. In order to avoid any further gasoline loss, I stupidly parked my car in an isolated area and the next day found it vandalized. Four wheels were gone and the dashboard cannibalized for parts as was the engine. Best car I ever had.

 

[doubtingmerle]

They have added an additional 5% canola-based biodiesel to the 15% from pine oil to provide a diesel at the pump that is 20% renewables sourced.

Diluting diesel fuel with 20% biofuel should help, but even if everybody used 20% biofuel in their tanks, then our oil supplies would last only 25% longer. That assumes we use no diesel fuel to make the biofuel. If we use a lot of diesel fuel to make that biofuel, it could actually have very little benefit.

When the oil runs out, then what? A mix of 80% oil does no good if there is no oil.

Where I live however, the competition for land between fuel crops and food crops is not such an issue as we produce more than we consume of grains and starches and our prices are not particularly competitive on the world market.

Well you may have enough grain, but many do not have enough food, so I do hate to see productive crop land turned into land to raise biofuel. I see we now make about 3 billion gallons a year of biofuel, which is around 200,000 barrels a day. As we consume 80 million barrels a day in oil, this represents a very modest relief on our current petroleum draw.

Suppose we develop and use engines that run efficiently on 100% biofuel. Even if we had engines that ran on 100% biofuel, that would be a lot of land that would need to be converted to biofuel to ramp this up to replace petroleum.

 

[Monna]

Diluting diesel fuel with 20% biofuel should help, but even if everybody used 20% biofuel in their tanks, then our oil supplies would last only 25% longer.

When the oil runs out, then what? A mix of 80% oil does no good if there is no oil.

The intention is to continuely increase the propotion of biodiesel. There is no molecular difference between the petroleum based and the pine-oil based diesel. Also, the biodiesel or other renewable fuel can be used to power the production of the biodiesel. The biogas produced in our sewage treatment plants is used, not only by our buses but also our garbage collection vehicles - where we don't use vacuum systems that use much less energy, and which permit the design of neighbourhoods without thinking of garbage collection size vehicles. We thereby have narrower roads - using less asphalt and less petroleum products.

Think system-wide. There are huge oportunities to reduce use of petroleum based fuels, as well as to replace them. One bus here is equivalent to70 cars on the road where each car has one occupant - the driver. Cars are used for about 5% of their lifetime. The rest is spent in parking lots - and in US cities much of the parking is free - what an enormous misuse of space! (Talk about misusing farmland!) See http://www.economist.com/news/brief...reate-traffic-jams-pollution-and-urban-sprawl for more info on the waste that is parking.

 

[doubtingmerle]

There is no molecular difference between the petroleum based and the pine-oil based diesel.

I disagree. Biodiesel has less energy per gallon, and is a powerful solvent which needs to be taken into consideration. Most engines cannot run pure biodiesel without modification.

Also, the biodiesel or other renewable fuel can be used to power the production of the biodiesel.

It would be interesting to see a farm factory that produces biodiesel using only biodiesel, wind, solar, and human labor to power the operation. Then we could see what comes off the land in a situation where there is no petroleum. To be complete, all the machinery and trucks would need to be manufactured using biodiesel, but that is not exactly practical. So I would settle for the farm buying regular tractors (modified to use pure biodiesel) with the stipulation that any fuel used to make the equipment would be subtracted from the farm output to calculate the net fuel produced. How long would it take that farm to break even on an energy basis? That is, when would the farm produce enough energy to compensate for the initial fuel investment used to make the farm, factory, and equipment? And after the facility breaks even on an energy basis, how many barrels per acre per year do you get out of that farm, at what cost?

We don't see a farm like that, probably because it would not be economical. But if it is not economical, how are we going to make it when there is no oil left? Even if it is a net loss financially, shouldn't somebody be doing it just to see what it takes?

And if not in actuality, what would the numbers look like on paper? Can we justify all the land that would be taken from rain forest or crop land to make such biodiesel farm/factories?

Think system-wide. There are huge oportunities to reduce use of petroleum based fuels, as well as to replace them. One bus here is equivalent to70 cars on the road where each car has one occupant - the driver. Cars are used for about 5% of their lifetime. The rest is spent in parking lots - and in US cities much of the parking is free - what an enormous misuse of space! (Talk about misusing farmland!) See http://www.economist.com/news/brief...reate-traffic-jams-pollution-and-urban-sprawl for more info on the waste that is parking.

Interesting article. Yes, parking lots and suburban sprawl are a huge draw on energy. Some day we will need to live without them, unless of course, somebody can show an alternative means that efficiently provides the equivalent energy to keep building parking lots and suburbia.

 

[Monna]

There is no molecular difference between the petroleum based and the pine-oil based diesel.

This is what the refining company claims, and I have no facts to contradict it.

I disagree. Biodiesel has less energy per gallon, and is a powerful solvent which needs to be taken into consideration.

I am not professionally competent to dispute you, and your skepticism is important to respect. Petroleum from different oil fields also differ quite markedly from each other, which is one of the issues that refineries have to contend with and design for. Presumably the refining processes are there to deal even with the chemical variations to produce a diesel with a reliable quality standard.

This particular company has been working with the forestry industry for some years, has a special refinery for the pine oil, prior to shipping it to their large, regular refinery where it is further processed and mixed with fossil based diesel. Since the company produces 80% of this country's refined diesel, which is used in almost all diesel vehicles here, it obviously lies within the tolerance range of current engines.

The company is also working with developing useable fuels from animal fat by-products of slaughterhouses. We'll see how this venture goes in future. Recycling restaurant food oils is fairly common nowadays.

 

[Justatruthseeker]

Society collapses as almost everything we use (plastics) are made from oil.

 

[Monna]

Society collapses as almost everything we use (plastics) are made from oil.

I assume you are predicting that this is what will happen when the oil runs out. And you point specifically at plastic.

Plastic is killing our ecosystems, and will be an increasing component in our own declining health. It may just lead to our societies collapsing before the oil runs out. Fortunately there are some countries that are trying to do something about - like Rwanda, that has banned the import and use of plastic bags. And other countries / companies are working on making truly organic, biodegradable plastics. Or doing all they can to recycle plastics and reduce production of "virgin" plastic. (The original plastics degraded relatively rapidly as they were organic, so changes in production had to be made to make them durable. Rather ironic.)

 

[yeshuaslavejeff]

...post on myth read.

hypo-thetical interjection tangent ....


Ever wonder how ANYONE understood Hebrew with NO Capital leTTers, and no puncu- ation & ?