Santorum Loses MI and AZ

Rion

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Gingrich is last here, polling less than Paul. Santorum is ahead here.

Ok, seriously...

What is wrong with moderates people?

I had this problem with Democrats back in 08 too. What is the problem with moderates?

It depends on what they're moderate on. In all honesty, I think a lot of Romney's problem are the beltway pundits who talk him up in such a way that he sounds spineless to many.
 
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SPB1987

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So will Ricky drop out now? I'm tired of seeing his ugly mug and (even worse) hearing his incredible stupidity on display day after day...

I agree. He has a certain likeability about himself but I am sick of hearing about gay marriage and other social issues. Does anyone really know where he stands on job creation? Taxes? Or anything else that actually matters?
 
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Ok, seriously...

What is wrong with moderates people?

I had this problem with Democrats back in 08 too. What is the problem with moderates?

I can't trust someone who enjoys having the fence post that far up their you know where! :D

nah I don't mind moderates generally, it does seem though that what is called "moderate" really just means say anything/do anything to pander to the voters every few years to win again, that I don't like...real moderates I'm okay with, like Snowe, that is who she is.
 
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Anoetos

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Ok, seriously...

What is wrong with moderates people?

I had this problem with Democrats back in 08 too. What is the problem with moderates?

Nothing, I are one myself.

The problem seems to be that in politics, there aren't any. I think a moderate is someone who takes a considered middle position because his temperament is balanced, not someone who says one extreme thing to one extreme group, and another thing to another, and finds himself thereby forced into the center.
 
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NightHawkeye

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will the south vote for Santorum?
It's a good question. Had Santorum taken Michigan ... probably. Polls last week indicated great support for Santorum in the South. Gingrich has regained momentum in his home state of Georgia ... but so far nowhere else in the South, at least not that I've seen. No debates are on tap, so I don't see how Newt recovers more ... but who knows.
 
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Anoetos

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I think Newt is done. Paul will stick it out to the bitter end because, well...that's what he does. I don't foresee Santorum quitting and endorsing Romney, but stranger things have happened.

It seems more likely that Santorum will run til the money runs out and then go back home to the keystone state to run for some other office, or become a FoxNews commentator.
 
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Maren

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Nah ... not buying it. Both Ron Paul and Rick Santorum have the fortitude to go all the way to the convention. Newt Gingrich has at least one more week to pull a rabbit out of the hat. We see signs of uneasy alliances being drawn (OK, one is easy, the other uneasy but why quibble details ... )

Romney is the favorite only of Wall Street, the Republican establishment and the mainstream media ... which ought to set off all sorts of warning bells. He has lots of money ... and requires it all to beat grotesquely underfunded opposition. What's wrong with this picture? :doh:

I don't know where you get the idea that Romney is the favorite of the mainstream media. I think you are just seeing what your persecution complex is wanting to see. If you have some type of evidence, I'd love to see it. The last study I saw on the subject had Romney treated the most negatively and Santorum getting the postitive press; I seem to recall mentions of Romney in the mainstream media were over 75% negative.
 
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Maren

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Ha, Mitt barely won his home state, oh my gosh, you say the number two guy should drop out. That's rich.

Wasn't this about the fifth state now that the media has claimed was Romney's "home state"? Romney hasn't lived in Michigan since high school, over 40 years ago.

And if you really want to play the home state game, Santorum couldn't even get on the ballot in his "home state" -- that is the one he was born in and has lived in for about the last decade.
 
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I swear the media is what is keeping this primary alive; (and the silly new GOP primary rules), in previous elections Gingrich would have been toast by now. Santorum would probably still be in it, as he has won a few states, but one of those was a non-binding meaningless primary in MO. For all the talk about the Romney ceiling, he wins, and has done so in New England, the South, the West, and now the Midwest. And if MI had a more closed primary, Santorum's support would have been quite a bit lower.

I am not necessarily the biggest Romney fan, but it is clear that most of the party, not just the establishment, has more or less lined up behind him...in any other year he would be declared the party victor by now.
 
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When the GOP primaries end, I honestly have no idea how I will get my political entertainment. And that scares me.

*political nerd alert here*

I suggest Prime Ministers Questions from the UK...they know how to put the fun back in politics...bonus points for turning it into a drinking game.
 
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Wayte

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Ya know, I don't usually watch TV, but I just happened to be while I'm on vacation here and I was very happy to see Romney win by a fairly healthy margin.

Well, the pragmatist in me wasn't so happy, because Santorum would be an easy Democrat victory come election day. But faith in humanity went up, and acceptable trade off.
 
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craigerNY

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Thank God.

Now we need a brokered convention to nominate Chris Christie, the only one with stones enough to get the red ink under control. The heck with the social conservatives this election. Their issues can wait.

It seems like for now that Christie is genuinely focused on and dedicated to his state. A mark in his favor in my opinion. It is kind of telling that no body worth being president wants to.
 
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keith99

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I swear the media is what is keeping this primary alive; (and the silly new GOP primary rules), in previous elections Gingrich would have been toast by now. Santorum would probably still be in it, as he has won a few states, but one of those was a non-binding meaningless primary in MO. For all the talk about the Romney ceiling, he wins, and has done so in New England, the South, the West, and now the Midwest. And if MI had a more closed primary, Santorum's support would have been quite a bit lower.

I am not necessarily the biggest Romney fan, but it is clear that most of the party, not just the establishment, has more or less lined up behind him...in any other year he would be declared the party victor by now.

That is like saying a marathon is over after mile 5, and before the only hill.

Republican Delegate Count - Election 2012 - NYTimes.com

There are still 2 states remaining that have more delagates than any candidate has in total so far. There are probably 5 or 6 more where just that one state could change the lead.

Does anyone in their right mind think that every candidate has used their best trick, the one really nasty skeleton in the closet?

Far from over. There is both a lot of time and delegates remaining.

Romney is looking good, but if enough others stay in it could be a problem for him.

EDIT: March 6th may say a lot. The race could get close or Romney could open a comfortable lead. Still even after that date California, Texas and New York remain and if they are all or none states each and every one of them represents a major swing.
 
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Defensor Fidei

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That is like saying a marathon is over after mile 5, and before the only hill.

Republican Delegate Count - Election 2012 - NYTimes.com

There are still 2 states remaining that have more delagates than any candidate has in total so far. There are probably 5 or 6 more where just that one state could change the lead.

Does anyone in their right mind think that every candidate has used their best trick, the one really nasty skeleton in the closet?

Far from over. There is both a lot of time and delegates remaining.

Romney is looking good, but if enough others stay in it could be a problem for him.

EDIT: March 6th may say a lot. The race could get close or Romney could open a comfortable lead. Still even after that date California, Texas and New York remain and if they are all or none states each and every one of them represents a major swing.
Except the biggest and most populated states (California, New York, Illinois, etc.) are not going to be Santorum-friendly territory. And the GOP planned it that many of the more moderate/liberal states are winner-take-all, while most Southern states will assign delegates proportionally, so Romney will still pick up delegates down there even if he loses. Santorum and Gingrich are not even on the ballot in Virginia, where it's just Romney vs. Paul.

Texas is the only big one Santorum might have a chance in, and Gingrich would probably prove spoiler down there. The South isn't exactly Santorum's natural base either.

So far, the only states Santorum has proven he can win are small low-turnout caucus states in 'flyover country'. Michigan was really Santorum's best shot to prove he is a viable challenger, and he failed to do so.
 
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NightHawkeye

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EDIT: March 6th may say a lot. The race could get close or Romney could open a comfortable lead.
Super Tuesday looks to be every bit as divided as the contests to date have been.

Still even after that date California ...
Looks like California is not winner take all: California Republican Delegation 2012
Tuesday 5 June 2012: 169 of 172 of California's delegates to the Republican National Convention are pledged to presidential contenders in today's California Presidential Primary.

159 district delegates are to be bound to presidential contenders based on the primary results in each of the 53 congressional districts: each congressional district is assigned 3 National Convention delegates and the presidential contender receiving the greatest number of votes in that district will receive all 3 of that district's National Convention delegates.

10 at-large delegates (10 base at-large delegates plus 0 bonus delegate) are to be bound to the presidential contender receiving the greatest number of votes in the primary statewide.
In addition, 3 party leaders, the National Committeeman, the National Committeewoman, and the chairman of the California's Republican Party, will attend the convention as unpledged delegates by virtue of their position.

The selection of Presidential Nominating Convention Delegates to the Republican National Convention ... shall be chosen by the Presidential candidate who obtained the plurality of Republican votes within each Congressional district, and, for ... at large ... by the Presidential candidate who obtained the plurality of Republican votes statewide. [Standing Rules and Bylaws of the California Republican Party As Amended 20 March 2011 Article VI Section 6.01 (A)]
... Texas ...
Texas apparently is not winner-take-all either: Texas Republican Delegation 2012
Thursday 7 June - Saturday 9 June 2012: The Texas Republican State Convention convenes in Fort Worth where the National Convention delegates are elected according to the results of the primary. [General Rules for All Conventions and Meetings. Rule 38. Sections 6, 7, 8, 9]

108 district delegates are elected: 3 from each of the state's 36 congressional districts.

44 at-large delegates (10 base at-large delegates plus 34 bonus delegates) are elected.

Delegates are elected by Presidential Preference from the Congressional districts in which their candidate received the highest percentage of the vote, providing the candidate received 20% or more of the vote, until the candidates delegate allotment is fulfilled. Then, the process is repeated for the 2nd highest vote getter. Once all Congressional district delegates are selected, the At-Large delegates are selected.
... and New York ...
Looks like New York is not winner-take-all either: New York Republican Delegation 2012
58 district delegates are bound to presidential contenders based on the primary results in each of the state's 29 congressional districts (using the congressional districts in effect in 2010 per the 2000 census reapportionment). Each congressional district is assigned 2 National Convention delegates and the presidential contender receiving the greatest number of votes in that district receives both delegates. Prior to the primary, each presidential candidate submits a slate of district delegates.

34 At-Large are bound to presidential contenders "winner-take-most" based on the statewide primary results. These delegates are elected at the state committee meeting.

If a candidate receives more than 50% of the vote, that candidate receives all 34 delegates.

Otherwise, the delegates are distributed proportionally to those candidates receiveing 20% or more of the vote.
... remain and if they are all or none states each and every one of them represents a major swing.
Looks like it's gonna be a long primary season ... none of the big states look like winner-take-all. Bummer ...

Popcorn_spongebob.gif
 
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keith99

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Super Tuesday looks to be every bit as divided as the contests to date have been.


Looks like California is not winner take all: California Republican Delegation 2012
Tuesday 5 June 2012: 169 of 172 of California's delegates to the Republican National Convention are pledged to presidential contenders in today's California Presidential Primary.

159 district delegates are to be bound to presidential contenders based on the primary results in each of the 53 congressional districts: each congressional district is assigned 3 National Convention delegates and the presidential contender receiving the greatest number of votes in that district will receive all 3 of that district's National Convention delegates.

10 at-large delegates (10 base at-large delegates plus 0 bonus delegate) are to be bound to the presidential contender receiving the greatest number of votes in the primary statewide.
In addition, 3 party leaders, the National Committeeman, the National Committeewoman, and the chairman of the California's Republican Party, will attend the convention as unpledged delegates by virtue of their position.

The selection of Presidential Nominating Convention Delegates to the Republican National Convention ... shall be chosen by the Presidential candidate who obtained the plurality of Republican votes within each Congressional district, and, for ... at large ... by the Presidential candidate who obtained the plurality of Republican votes statewide. [Standing Rules and Bylaws of the California Republican Party As Amended 20 March 2011 Article VI Section 6.01 (A)]
Texas apparently is not winner-take-all either: Texas Republican Delegation 2012
Thursday 7 June - Saturday 9 June 2012: The Texas Republican State Convention convenes in Fort Worth where the National Convention delegates are elected according to the results of the primary. [General Rules for All Conventions and Meetings. Rule 38. Sections 6, 7, 8, 9]

108 district delegates are elected: 3 from each of the state's 36 congressional districts.

44 at-large delegates (10 base at-large delegates plus 34 bonus delegates) are elected.

Delegates are elected by Presidential Preference from the Congressional districts in which their candidate received the highest percentage of the vote, providing the candidate received 20% or more of the vote, until the candidates delegate allotment is fulfilled. Then, the process is repeated for the 2nd highest vote getter. Once all Congressional district delegates are selected, the At-Large delegates are selected.
Looks like New York is not winner-take-all either: New York Republican Delegation 2012
58 district delegates are bound to presidential contenders based on the primary results in each of the state's 29 congressional districts (using the congressional districts in effect in 2010 per the 2000 census reapportionment). Each congressional district is assigned 2 National Convention delegates and the presidential contender receiving the greatest number of votes in that district receives both delegates. Prior to the primary, each presidential candidate submits a slate of district delegates.

34 At-Large are bound to presidential contenders "winner-take-most" based on the statewide primary results. These delegates are elected at the state committee meeting.

If a candidate receives more than 50% of the vote, that candidate receives all 34 delegates.

Otherwise, the delegates are distributed proportionally to those candidates receiveing 20% or more of the vote.
Looks like it's gonna be a long primary season ... none of the big states look like winner-take-all. Bummer ...

Popcorn_spongebob.gif

I did a bit more checking.Per some sites California is listed as Winner Take All. But what that means is both the districts and the statewide delegates are WTA. Not what I think of as WTA, but actually closer that most states. It seems WTA for each district and proportional for the state wide delegates is the most common.

The only states of any size that are true WTA that I found were New Jersey and Utah. There could be some smaller states that are true WTA, but it is not a big deal if they have 1/10 the the delegates of California (and less than the state wide for CA which is WTA).
 
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