I agree.
A Democratic candidate COULD beat Trump, especially if there we are in a recession on Election Day. For me, the open question is whether the Democrats will self-destruct by nominating someone from the far left, and running on such policies as Medicare for All, decriminalization of illegal border crossings, free medical care for the undocumented, free college for all, paying off all student debt, an assets tax, and large increases in the acceptance of asylum seekers.
I have thought that 2024 would be the "swing year" for the Electoral College, including Texas and Georgia turning Democratic. Also, Democrats have a habit of turning to the left after losing a presidential election (and then losing). I think that Warren is likely to win the nomination. My preference is Biden or Bullock. Even if the don't win, having a moderate at the top of the ticket will help retain House seats. Also, Bloomberg's millions will be backing candidates who favor gun legislation. I think his candidates won 21 of 25 seats last time.