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Why Kamala’s Campaign Is Spiraling Into Desperation Mode

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Hammster

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Why Kamala’s Campaign Is Spiraling Into Desperation Mode

There are a lot of ways you can tell that a political campaign is in trouble. Of course you can look at the polls, and the various models that aggregate those polls. And right now the models do not look good for Kamala Harris. Right now, for example, Nate Silver’s model gives Donald Trump a 60%...
www.dailywire.com

There are a lot of ways you can tell that a political campaign is in trouble. Of course you can look at the polls, and the various models that aggregate those polls. And right now the models do not look good for Kamala Harris. Right now, for example, Nate Silver’s model gives Donald Trump a 60% chance of winning, with a projected 277 electoral votes.
 
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Gregory Thompson

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Honestly, I thought Trump was going to win from the outset.

Maybe the media made it too obvious, so they added some more narrative to drum up interest/ratings.
 
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eleos1954

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We can't rely on polls
 
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All Becomes New

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Hammster

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RileyG

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Gregory Thompson said:
Honestly, I thought Trump was going to win from the outset.

Maybe the media made it too obvious, so they added some more narrative to drum up interest/ratings.
Click to expand...
I sure hope so.
 
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RileyG

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iluvatar5150

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On Nate Silver’s model, 60% is pretty close to a toss-up. I’m not going to parse the html again to read another of Matt Walsh’s takes that, if the headline is any indication, is just as inane as the others I’ve read.
 
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DaisyDay

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I can’t find that on the 538 website but 1) they have an interactive build your own map and 2) the latest who’s ahead in the national polls puts Harris ahead by3.1 points, with Harris polling at 47.3 and Donald at 44.2 on September 8, 2024.

Is Benny Johnson one of those paid Russian influencers? I don’t know how that all worked out.
 
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iluvatar5150

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Nate Silver != 538 anymore. The current 538 model is entirely new, while Nate took his model over to substack where the polling averages are free, but electoral college predictions are behind a paywall.

FINAL Silver Bulletin 2024 presidential election forecast

All the numbers for Trump vs. Harris.
www.natesilver.net


Between what he writes and what journalists with paid access report, it seems he’s got Harris ahead in the popular vote, but a little behind in the electoral college.
 
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Servus

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I'm looking forward to that debate in a couple of days. Really there should be two in the same day. Have one, and then wait an hour for Harris to change her position on several policies.
 
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MrMoe

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Historian Allan Lichtman, the guy who predicted nine out of the last ten election winners, including Trump in 2016 and Biden in 2020, says Kamala is going to win. If he says she's going to when then I think she's going to win. I'm actually looking forward to the Kamala Harris presidency. Not because I think she'll be any good, but just the opposite. I've got my popcorn ready for the clown show.
 
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Hammster

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iluvatar5150 said:
On Nate Silver’s model, 60% is pretty close to a toss-up. I’m not going to parse the html again to read another of Matt Walsh’s takes that, if the headline is any indication, is just as inane as the others I’ve read.
Click to expand...
You felt the need to post that? Interesting.
 
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Hammster

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Again, not really about the polls.
 
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All Becomes New

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Hammster said:
It’s not really all about the polls, though, as the article spells out.
Click to expand...

I am not going to create an account to a site that is sure to send an endless supply of emails.
 
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