Why I Don’t Think the Population Will Collapse in the Long Run

[Michie]

The irrational pandemonium of the 20th century was the fear of a population explosion. Estimates from scientists such as Paul Ehrlich projected population growth would lead to mass starvation, death, and environmental degradation.

None of that happened.

Instead, food became more plentiful, life expectancy increased, and the environment got cleaner. This is because, as economist Julian Simon pointed out, human beings are the ultimate resource for improving the world. Population growth is good.

Now it appears, though, that the opposite problem is rising to the surface. Fertility rates are down below the level needed to sustain the size of the population in many countries.

Since population growth is a good thing, this seems like bad news. As population plummets, so does the number of creative minds ready to tackle humanity’s challenges. This issue has caught the attention of many, notably Elon Musk, who believes population collapse is humanity’s biggest threat.

Continued below.

Why I Don’t Think the Population Will Collapse in the Long Run

Fertility rates are down below the level needed to sustain the size of the population in many countries. As population plummets, so does the number of creative minds ready to tackle humanity’s challenges. However, failed past demographic predictions can shed light on why we should be hopeful.

fee.org

 

[chevyontheriver]

The irrational pandemonium of the 20th century was the fear of a population explosion. Estimates from scientists such as Paul Ehrlich projected population growth would lead to mass starvation, death, and environmental degradation.

None of that happened.

Instead, food became more plentiful, life expectancy increased, and the environment got cleaner. This is because, as economist Julian Simon pointed out, human beings are the ultimate resource for improving the world. Population growth is good.

Now it appears, though, that the opposite problem is rising to the surface. Fertility rates are down below the level needed to sustain the size of the population in many countries.

Since population growth is a good thing, this seems like bad news. As population plummets, so does the number of creative minds ready to tackle humanity’s challenges. This issue has caught the attention of many, notably Elon Musk, who believes population collapse is humanity’s biggest threat.

Continued below.

Why I Don’t Think the Population Will Collapse in the Long Run

Fertility rates are down below the level needed to sustain the size of the population in many countries. As population plummets, so does the number of creative minds ready to tackle humanity’s challenges. However, failed past demographic predictions can shed light on why we should be hopeful.

fee.org

There are four big threats as I see it. Population collapse as we see beginning to happen IS one of those. I think it's real and may be unavoidable by now. Another is real slate-wiping pandemic. Which causes population collapse. Another is massive thermonuclear war. Which causes population collapse. And the fourth is a Carrington event from a solar flare or human caused EMP that puts us in the Stone Age again. Which would cause massive starvation and consequent population collapse.

The current demographic winter IS going to turn China into a backwater within 50 years just as Japan has reduced stature from it's economic winter. Korea will see the same thing happen. Europe will not, only because Muslims will migrate there and sustain or even grow the population in the face of the demographic collapse of the native populations. It will be Europistan but it will not collapse economically.

The 'Population Bomb' illustrates how using math to predict the future does not actually cause the predicted result. The experts said we should even cut off aid to India because it was a totally lost cause. The 'Green Revolution' fixed the problem. So now I buy rice from India, which is a net exporter.