Patzak said:
I don't. I will know it when it actually does.
That's what I was asking. How do you know "when it actually does"? By seeing it? We already covered the problems with "seeing" something as being justification for knowledge. The Gettier problem illustrates the incapability of empirical observation to confirm anything.
Patzak said:
Maybe "contingent" was a bad choice of words. What I meant was: the belief I'm trying to justify isn't that there's no possible scenario in which the sun wouldn't rise the next day; only that it will rise tomorrow. I agree, there's no way of me knowing that; but at this point, I'm not claiming to know it - just that it is a justifiable belief.
Okay, I understand this. The only problem is that your use of "justify" here is different than the epistemological criterion of justification. In epistemology, we say that justification is that specific line of reasoning that confirms the necessary inference from belief to truth. For instance, the proposition, "A triangle cannot have two right angles" follows from the definition of triangle, which includes the propositions, "A triangle has three sides," and, "The sum of the angles in a triangle is 180 degrees" (we're talking about Euclidean geometry here, obviously).
So, I would say that your belief is
plausible. This term is less often confused with the epistemological criterion of justification and is generally understood within the context. We might even say "reasonable" as long as we make sure to note before hand that by "reason" we do not mean "rational," which is a common meaning of "reason."
Patzak said:
Sorry, this is all going a bit over my head. So you'll have to either rephase it or wait for me to read the book (which might take some time...)

.
Ah, I'm sorry. Yes, let me rephrase it.
In order to calculate the probability of any given proposition, you first need to know how many other propositions are possible. When this comes to invalid propositions, there are an infinite number of possible alternative invalid propositions. For instance, we might say, "Everytime it rains, the ground gets wet. Therefore, the rain causes the ground to get wet." This seems plausible, but because the proposition follows
post hoc fallacy, it is invalid. If we were to allow invalid propositions to be true, then we must allow
any invalid proposition to be true. Therefore, we might say, "Everytime it rains, the ground gets wet. Therefore, the number three is yellow." This proposition is also invalid and absurd, just much more obviously so; however, it is no more invalid than the argument that rain causes the ground to get wet.
When we come to inductive arguments, we seemingly have escaped this problem. Instead of simply asserting something is true based on observation, we instead try to assign a probability to it.
Everytime I have seen it rain, I have seen the ground get progressively wetter in proportion to the amount of rain. Those parts of the ground that are not expoused to the water did not get wet. I have seen this phenomenon 100 times. I have also poured water on the ground when it was not raining and the ground got wet. I also saw this phenomenon 100 times. Based on these observations, I conclude that it is probable that water makes the ground wet. In the cases that I tested, the probability was 1:1, or 100%. What is the probability that water always makes the ground wet (given a high enough portion of water)?
Let's forego the problems with sensation and get straight onto the reasoning. I observed water causing the ground to get wet 200 times. So where do I go wrong when I say that water probably if not always makes the ground wet?
Well, it's simpleI haven't observed
that. At best, I can only say that everytime I observed rain or water being poured on the ground, I observed the ground getting wet. This is
all that can be inferred from these observations. It is completely invalid to infer from a particular to a general, even a general probability. If I flip a two sided coin 100 times and everytime it comes up heads, can I validly infer that the next flip will comes heads as well? (Note that the coin does indeed have heads and tails.) You will say, "Of course not; the probability it will come tails is always 50%"and you would be right.
That raises the biggest problem of induction. What is the probability that water causes the ground to get wet? In order to calculate that, you would have to know every time in the past taht water caused the ground to get wet and every time in the future where water causes the ground to get wet. You would then have to also know all the instances where water did not cause the ground to get wet. There are many other considerations, maybe even an infinite number, but you can see from just this that it is impossible to assign a probability to the proposition, "Water makes the ground wet." There are an unknowable number of instances of rain making the ground wet and non-rain not making the ground wet. It is impossible to test them all, so the conclusion does not follow from the premises.
Patzak said:
I think the point of our disagreement lies in that we understand the concept of justification differently: I see it mainly as "a reasonable gronds" while you think of it as "being able to deductively prove". I'm not particularly familiar with analytical philosophy, so your use might be the correct one - I wouldn't know.
Oh, it's not an aspect of analytic philosophy; it's a requirement of any epistemological theory because it is necessarily inferred by logic.
(Just as a side note, analytic philosophy refers to the Vienna Circle school of philosophy from which birthed Logical Positivism and all other manner of positivistic philosophical systems. Common proponents of this view are Wittgenstein, Feigl, and Carnap. Wittgenstein especially was into the philosophy of language, which is a primary consideration of analytical philosophy. Bertrand Russell and Gottleb Frege were particularly interested in this aspect of analytic philosophy (before it was even analytic philosophy), denouncing Aristotelian term logic and instituting symbolic logic (which later became predicate logic) in its place.)
Patzak said:
But: it still seems to me that in your view the truth of something arises from the justification itself. Of course, it might be preexistent to our knowledge as in the examples you give - but two and two are four precisely because of the mathematical axioms that deductively lead to it. It stops being an independent factor and becomes part (or result) of what you give as its justification.
I see justification as the argument that concludes in the truth to be believed. The assertion itself is true. The belief itself can be independent of the justification. But we cannot rightly call it knowledge unless the proposition,
i.e. the argument, or the reasoning, is present. For instance, the proposition, "A triangle cannot have two right angles" is a true assertion. I also believe this to be true. But this proposition cannot stand alone as knowledge. It is susceptible to the inquiry, "How do you know?" At that point, I must show that the definition of triangle and the axioms of Euclidean geometry necessarily conclude in the proposition. This is the justification of knowledge.
Now, you argue that the truth then becomes dependent on the justification, but this does not follow. The proposition is true whether or not we know it to be true. It is
our knowing of the truth that is dependent on the justification.
I think what you might be saying is that the truth of a proposition is dependent on its axiom(s). That is, of course, completely true. But it is also true that even if we believe the axiom(s), we might not know the proposition. It must certainly be said that we cannot know the proposition without believing the axiom(s), though.
I say "believe the axiom(s)" because axioms cannot be proven. They are not propositions; they are those from which we justify propositions. An axiom cannot be confirmed, verified, or proved, it can only be believed.
Patzak said:
Could you elaborate on this? I'm not espousing a solipsistic worldview - I'm just saying it's irrelevant; knowledge functions the same way regardless of whether the world is the final reality or merely a Matrix-like illusion - the difference is only between calling something a thing in itself in one case and a sensory phenomenon in the other.
No, I wasn't implying you are espouing a solipsistic worldview. My point is that axioms are completely essential for any kind of knowledge at all. Unless you can take your argument all the way to a self-authenticating axiom, your argument will fall apart ultimately.
When I say "self-authenticating," I mean that the axiom necessarily implies itself. A good example of a
non self-authenticating axiom is the first principle of Logical Positivism: "Only propositions verifiable by sensory experience can be known." The reason this is inauthentic is because the axiom itself is not verifiable by sensory experience. It is self-contradictory.
Soli Deo Gloria
Jon