What are Andrew Yang's Prospects?

[MorkandMindy]

It's mainly about the publicity.

He could win. The way to stop him in 2024 would be to ensure he got no publicity at all.
In 2020 that method allowed the Democratic Party to sideline him entirely and gave him zero delegates.

But there are far more independents than there are Democratic or Republicans.

One thing voters have learned this millennium is that both parties field candidates no one particularly wants, we choose the one we think is the least bad.

 

[MorkandMindy]

A quick review of recent Presidents would start with G. W. Bush, who wasn't a true Conservative, and he started two very expensive wars.

Barrack Obama did make something of a start on healthcare, but it turned out to be a combination of government and private sector involvement with no public option. It had some value to some people, though the fine was a curse to others (including me). And he also ordered ten times as many drone strikes as his predecessor. But he made more progress on gendered bathrooms than any President had ever made in the years before. And yes I am a registered Democrat.

Donald Trump turned out not to be as bad as some had feared or as good as others had hoped. I won't go beyond that because it gets very controversial.

Andrew Yang's policy of 1,000 dollars per month to each person, after reviewing the various CARES Act and Corona Virus Relief Bill provisions, ...

... is likely to be far more cost-effective than anything done so far this century.

 

[MorkandMindy]

COST
Andrew Yang's proposal comes to 4 Trillion dollars a year. This is comparable to the amounts spent on the various relief bills that have not worked very well.

But that 4 Trillion dollar cost will be partly or largely offset by savings in a lot of other parts of the existing welfare system. Some of those have to stay but a lot will be replaced. I'm guessing the cost will be well under 3 Trillion dollars.

 

[MorkandMindy]

BENEFIT

Money that went to supporting large companies gave a return of under 20 cents added to the GDP for each dollar spent.

In contrast, money that went directly to the people gave a return of around 2 dollars for each dollar spent.

As for Andrew not means-testing, well, that gets complicated, people don't like their bank accounts reviewed by the government, and income tax isn't that good a method of means testing anyway. 18 billionaires got relief checks in 2021.

Knowing the 1,000 a month will arrive allows a person to plan, to buy somewhere to live, to move somewhere pay rates are lower but costs are lower, to plan an education. To feel less worried and to have more hope.

 

[Pavel Mosko]

It's mainly about the publicity.

He could win. The way to stop him in 2024 would be to ensure he got no publicity at all.
In 2020 that method allowed the Democratic Party to sideline him entirely and gave him zero delegates.

But there are far more independents than there are Democratic or Republicans.

One thing voters have learned this millennium is that both parties field candidates no one particularly wants, we choose the one we think is the least bad.

I've heard some Video Bloggers say some complementary stuff about him and his approach I guess he is one of the few candidates that can get in on the nitty gritty end of issues and do it in a personal way, at least when motivated or approached by the right folks for that kind of thing.

Personally from what I've seen he seems like the same old liberal whose method of dealing with a problem is to throw money at it, like his basic personal income issue.

I also don't think he has much chance or traction, or a resume for office (Other than being a smart guy, CEO, or whatever is occupation is....).

 

[MorkandMindy]

I'm not ready to place any big bets yet, but:

1. He is not a Democrat and therefore does not have to tow the party line, he could pick up a lot of votes from the undecided.

2. If he does gain publicity it is likely to snowball.


His resume includes being a self-made millionaire and he has started a large number of companies in areas of high unemployment for the benefit of those living in those areas.

 

[.Mikha'el.]

I refer to any political party started by a particular candidate solely focused on said candidate's ambitions as nothing more than a self-indulgent charade.

 

[Desk trauma]

Nill, his prospects are nill.

Said as someone who is quite fond of some of the ideas that Yang advocates.

 

[Freth]

Considering I don't know who Andrew Yang is, it's not looking good.

 

[Vylo]

I've heard some Video Bloggers say some complementary stuff about him and his approach I guess he is one of the few candidates that can get in on the nitty gritty end of issues and do it in a personal way, at least when motivated or approached by the right folks for that kind of thing.

Personally from what I've seen he seems like the same old liberal whose method of dealing with a problem is to throw money at it, like his basic personal income issue.

I also don't think he has much chance or traction, or a resume for office (Other than being a smart guy, CEO, or whatever is occupation is....).

Unfortunately getting into the weeds kills candidates.

The sad truth is you simply make up a short appealing slogan, or a handful of them, and repeat them endlessly and collect votes. "hope" "change" "Yes we can" of Obama. "MAGA" "lock her up" "build the wall" of Trump. It goes back even farther than that and transcends regions and even political systems: "Peace, Bread, Land" by Lenin. "One people, one empire, one leader" of Hitler. The worse things are, or that people feel they are, the more this works.

 

[MorkandMindy]

Ideologies can be problematic; I also want a philosophy that encompasses the ideology.

I noticed Andrew Yang because he was looking at the present in the context of our immediate future and therefore could justify his thoughts about what we should be doing right now.

The other candidates were running against each other with no concern about doing what was right - just of winning - even if it meant just picking faults in each other.

I got the impression that might be the best any of them would ever do if elected as President.

 

[MorkandMindy]

... Personally, from what I've seen he seems like the same old liberal whose method of dealing with a problem is to throw money at it, like his basic personal income issue...

It is the opposite really.

Present liberal welfare results in a complex set of requirements telling people how to run their lives - complex contradicting requirements such as these:

Move to where the jobs are, but you have to live there at least six months to get benefits.

Income requirements for many rentals are impossible to meet, so save up and get a down payment on a house. But if you have more than 2,000 in the bank, you lose Medicaid. But you can have a house worth over half a million and still get Medicaid.

The rules are you need to have more than 30,000 as a down payment but also less than 2,000 to be able to save up. Rules for the poor are written by the rich.

UBI
UBI is an idea that came out of Silicon Valley. They know it will soon be inevitable and it is the right answer or at least a better answer, right now.

One clear advantage is people think more freely and creatively when there is no threat of losing their job and housing and getting left with no income.

 

[hislegacy]

I’d say his chances on a scale of 1 to 10 would around a 2

 

[MorkandMindy]

Privacy has strong bi-partisan support.

UBI requires no data collection other than just evidence the person exists which can be done by any ID checking such as by any public notary in a bank.

The basic idea is the UBI is survival money. A person can then supplement the UBI by earning money.

UBI allows a person to choose how many hours to work and gives significant freedom in the choice of work.

It allows the person time to train for a higher-paid job or take a lower-paid job that would not be viable if it had to pay a good wage or salary.

 

[hislegacy]

UBI requires no data collection other than just evidence the person exists which can be done by any ID checking such as by any public notary in a bank.

Do you support the same ID checking for voting?

 

[Albion]

I’d say his chances on a scale of 1 to 10 would around a 2

Maybe, but that's a pretty optimistic guess. After looking more closely at what it would take to get a new party off the ground, he's most likely to turn his project into another pressure group or think tank instead.

 

[MorkandMindy]

He's absolutely certain to get through his party (Forward Party) primary.