We are mobilizing our military with the expectation of having a vaccine by the end of the year

[Hazelelponi]

I don't doubt that they'll be aware of potential shortcomings, but again, the political pressure to say "this works" and not to say anything to the contrary will be immense. The most anyone will say who wants to keep their job will be that "even if it doesn't give you total immunity it will help".

It's not political pressure at all. Pharmaceutical companies have built their reputations on how effective their medications and vaccines are. With billions upon billions of dollars riding on it, they aren't going to put out a faulty, ineffective vaccine and open themselves up to lawsuits for any reason.

 

[sfs]

You won't know that.

Well, yeah, I do. They're not going to mass administer a vaccine without evidence that it works.

Besides, just like the flu vaccine, even if it doesn't confer total immunity it can still help. If you are targeting 4 antibodies and two are no longer effective you can still get partial immunity.

Which is a form of 'works'.

It all depends on whether or not mutations take place that affect the targets of the vaccine.
when you consider the vast multitude of combinations possible it is very difficult to imagine that won't happen. So since, you are not eradicating it, you can't really control new strains from popping up anymore than last years flu shot may not help this year.

There are multiple reasons why flu requires new vaccines more often than most other viral diseases: it mutates faster, it undergoes reassortment with animal viruses, and it has numerous strains already circulating. Why do you think we don't need a new measles vaccine every year?

Many of the epidemiologists who have gone on record say that it is highly likely that immunity will only last 2-3 years.

That's a completely different issue: we may lose immunity to the virus even if the virus doesn't change at all. If that's true, we'll need booster shots, not a new vaccine.

 

[ZNP]

Well, yeah, I do. They're not going to mass administer a vaccine without evidence that it works.

Which is a form of 'works'.

Yes, it is. But some people understand "works" to mean immunity and I won't get sick. There will not be any such guarantee.

There are multiple reasons why flu requires new vaccines more often than most other viral diseases: it mutates faster, it undergoes reassortment with animal viruses, and it has numerous strains already circulating. Why do you think we don't need a new measles vaccine every year?

Since we aren't talking about measles or flu, I guess the real question is why do you think it will be any different with this versus the flu? As I have already said and others have confirmed there are a great many mutations from this virus, if they combine with some other virus you can get a whole new contagion. Granted the majority will be less contagious or less viral that this one, but since we will have millions, even hundreds of millions of people from around the planet infected the potential for new pathogens to emerge is extremely likely from a simple statistical analysis. Already there are indications that this has already happened, and the number of people getting infected worldwide is doubling every month, so there's that as well.

That's a completely different issue: we may lose immunity to the virus even if the virus doesn't change at all. If that's true, we'll need booster shots, not a new vaccine.

Booster shots are a "different issue" not a completely different issue. It is still a monumental task to inoculate billions of people each year whether it is the first time or it is a booster shot. But I find the argument against a new strain emerging as ludicrous since this is the 5th strain of corona virus that is currently in existence. Experts envision two scenarios if new coronavirus isn't contained - STAT
These 5 strains have all emerged since the 60s, and it seems it is happening more rapidly as 3 of the strains have emerged in the last 15 years.

 

[sfs]

Since we aren't talking about measles or flu, I guess the real question is why do you think it will be any different with this versus the flu? As I have already said and others have confirmed there are a great many mutations from this virus, if they combine with some other virus you can get a whole new contagion.

I just told you why it's likely to be different from the flu: the influenza virus mutates faster, it reassorts, and it has many more quite divergent strains already circulating. Reassortment is a big problem. The influenza virus is segmented, which means segments of different strains can be mixed to form a new strain. More importantly, close relatives of our influenza circulate widely in animal populations that humans are in constant contact with (birds and pigs), giving a large reservoir of related but different surface proteins that can be incorporated into the human virus. SARS-CoV-2 is not segmented and does not have similarly situated reservoirs.

Booster shots are a "different issue" not a completely different issue.

It's a different issue as far as the biology is concerned, which is what I'm addressing.

But I find the argument against a new strain emerging as ludicrous since this is the 5th strain of corona virus that is currently in existence...These 5 strains have all emerged since the 60s, and it seems it is happening more rapidly as 3 of the strains have emerged in the last 15 years.

Go back and read it again. They were discovered in the 1960s and later.