Ukraine: What price freedom?

[mindlight]

If you were president Zelensky considering his options what would you choose?

Assuming that:
1) NATO will not ride in militarily on a white horse to save the day but continued supplies of humanitarian aid, military equipment, and intelligence will be forthcoming.
2) Zelensky will not be removed by assassination, bombing, or capture.
3) That the Russian invasion continues.

Do you think this decision could change with events? e.g. The Russians conquer the whole country. The Russians fail to make significant progress. The use of biological weapons.

Please explain why you choose the option you do. In essence, what should the end picture look like here?

 

[Gregory Thompson]

When faced with a bully you can't defeat, do your best to make sure you leave your mark, they're gonna keep hitting you anyway.

At this time, there is no point in surrendering, they must fight back.

The longer Russia continues this invasion, the more of a neighborhood bully they'll appear to be. The sanctions could hang on for decades.

The economic events that lead to different nations breaking off of the old USSR would repeat themselves and the cycle would repeat.

 

[Unqualified]

When they are all but destroyed, they won’t have anything to go back to. How can they be free? If they join nato they will lead us into WW3. Putin is reasonable. He doesn’t want nukes and bio on his border in the hands of anti Russia.

 

[High Fidelity]

When they are all but destroyed, they won’t have anything to go back to. How can they be free? If they join nato they will lead us into WW3. Putin is reasonable. He doesn’t want nukes and bio on his border in the hands of anti Russia.

Putin is NOT reasonable. Russia don't have nukes on their border... In fact, Ukraine gave up their nukes to Russia in the 90s on the promise of safety from Russia. Look how that went?

Putin is a tyrant in every sense of the word.

 

[public hermit]

What I think doesn't really matter; it's what Ukrainians want. I think the fight they have put up is surprising, even to the Russians. I also think this has revealed how ill prepared the Russian military is for a ground war.

It's up to Ukranians. They have shown they are their own people. God bless them for being tough as nails. It's heartbreaking that the live possibility of nuclear war means they have to do the actual fighting on their own. But that's the reality. And, by God, they're doing it. It really is a decision no one else has a right to make.

 

[Nithavela]

When they are all but destroyed, they won’t have anything to go back to. How can they be free? If they join nato they will lead us into WW3. Putin is reasonable. He doesn’t want nukes and bio on his border in the hands of anti Russia.

Once Ukraine has finished destroying the russian army, the west will happily supply it with everything it needs to rebuild.

 

[RDKirk]

When faced with a bully you can't defeat, do your best to make sure you leave your mark, they're gonna keep hitting you anyway.

At this time, there is no point in surrendering, they must fight back.

The longer Russia continues this invasion, the more of a neighborhood bully they'll appear to be. The sanctions could hang on for decades.

The economic events that lead to different nations breaking off of the old USSR would repeat themselves and the cycle would repeat.

Russia is not an "up and coming" world power, Russia is a swiftly declining world power--which is part of the reason Putin has chosen to invade Ukraine.

Ukraine's resistance might ultimately prove futile for them, but the mark they leave may well prove mortal for Russia.

 

[pdudgeon]

God always fights on the side of the right, and that's NOT Russia.

 

[mindlight]

When faced with a bully you can't defeat, do your best to make sure you leave your mark, they're gonna keep hitting you anyway.

At this time, there is no point in surrendering, they must fight back.

The longer Russia continues this invasion, the more of a neighborhood bully they'll appear to be. The sanctions could hang on for decades.

The economic events that lead to different nations breaking off of the old USSR would repeat themselves and the cycle would repeat.

So you would use the sacrifices of the Ukrainian people to overthrow everything that Putin stands for. Victory will look like Putin removed, the dream of the Russian Empire vanquished forever, millions of dead Ukrainians and devastated land.

 

[mindlight]

When they are all but destroyed, they won’t have anything to go back to. How can they be free? If they join nato they will lead us into WW3. Putin is reasonable. He doesn’t want nukes and bio on his border in the hands of anti Russia.

What does Ukraine get out of your victory scenario though? My hope is for a compromise that brings West Ukraine into NATO and the EU and removes all legitimacy from any further claims on Ukrainian territory. Let Russia itself choose its own destiny. Putin will not live forever.

 

[mindlight]

Once Ukraine has finished destroying the russian army, the west will happily supply it with everything it needs to rebuild.

That might be an ideal scenario with Ukraine being invited into an alliance it did not need as its prize. However, the probability of that seems very low, at least in the East. The most likely scenario is that Putin conquers East of the Dnieper. But that he is unable to take the West and especially in the Carpathians. If he tries he is looking at continuous guerilla warfare, massive casualties and he does not have the manpower to hold the whole country. The Russians will lose 10s of thousands of troops and then the terrorism in Russia proper will begin also and the damage to his own credibility will become unsustainable. But if he holds the line at the Dnieper the Ukrainians cannot dislodge him so we are looking at a bloody stalemate. In the meantime, he missiles any attempts at rebuilding in the West and sends out Special Ops teams with a mandate simply to kill and cause havoc on a continuous basis. Ukraine can never heal nor can it win in that scenario. Ukraine becomes unliveable without even being occupied. How many lives must be lost before both sides realize that a compromise is the only way to end this? The battles for the major cities have not really started in earnest as the Russians have not completed their encircling maneuvers. But then they control water, electricity, and gas what happens to the people in the city? How far will they go to win this?

 

[Nithavela]

The most likely scenario is that Putin conquers East of the Dnieper.

Yes, we all have read you posting this about a hundred times in the last two weeks.

 

[mindlight]

Russia is not an "up and coming" world power, Russia is a swiftly declining world power--which is part of the reason Putin has chosen to invade Ukraine.

Ukraine's resistance might ultimately prove futile for them, but the mark they leave may well prove mortal for Russia.

The idea of a Russian Empire is somewhat eroded by the performance of the Russian army against the relatively poorly equipped and funded Ukrainian army!

Putin's desire and hold on power has been underestimated too many times in the West but whether or not Russia is broken by this does not necessarily mean his dismissal.

The longer this goes on the more both countries are ruined. A ruined Russia armed with nukes and biochemical weapons is not the brightest star on the horizon.

 

[mindlight]

Yes, we all have read you posting this about a hundred times in the last two weeks.

You have not shown me wrong yet but apparently still don't see why this seems most likely. Just look at the invasion map and the trajectories of his forces.

 

[mindlight]

God always fights on the side of the right, and that's NOT Russia.

Zelensky supports abortion. He is a believer in God but does not know Christ and so how can he be saved? Putin might actually be a Christian albeit a very worldly one. How do you know which side God is fighting on? The people of the Donbas and Crimea voted for the Russian candidate in 2010 and have fought since to stay in Russia. Many in the East voted for the same. Does God not hear their prayers also? A compromise is the only way to answer the prayers of both sides.

Putin clearly thinks he broke international law in the name of a higher mandate. It is doubtful in the extreme that he heard God's voice commanding him. The fruit of his campaign seems to be that of evil on the tactical level with death and devastation.

If the fields are not planted in Ukraine in the Spring then famine may well follow and not just in Ukraine as it exports food all around the world including Europe. Check the shelves the sunflower oil is selling out amongst other things. It makes the neon used in the chip-making process. Will we have a new economic global depression to follow the last one? If this war is not ended soon nuclear power plants may have accidents, biochemical warfare may be employed and millions will die. Is that what God wants?

 

[Albion]

The most likely scenario is that Putin conquers East of the Dnieper.

Even though his army is looking less than might have been expected, and there is considerable unrest among the Russian people over this unnecessary war, there's a good chance Putin will decide to take all of Ukraine.

That will put him on the borders of Poland, Hungary, Moldova, Romania, and Slovakia. This will remove much of the buffer existing between the West and his reborn Soviet Union, and he may well think this is to his benefit, especially after everybody has seen what happened to Ukraine.

 

[mindlight]

What I think doesn't really matter; it's what Ukrainians want. I think the fight they have put up is surprising, even to the Russians. I also think this has revealed how ill prepared the Russian military is for a ground war.

It's up to Ukranians. They have shown they are their own people. God bless them for being tough as nails. It's heartbreaking that the live possibility of nuclear war means they have to do the actual fighting on their own. But that's the reality. And, by God, they're doing it. It really is a decision no one else has a right to make.

I agree it is their decision, which is why I phrased the title of this thread in terms of President Zelenskys choice as to how to proceed. Also some of the options may well be too early to consider until we know just how successful the Ukrainian resistance is. Their army has fought with great skill and bravery against the Russians, crippling their resupply and hampering the achievement of their objectives. But the maths is against them and NATO is not coming. So how can they save the best of Ukraine and secure a future for their people?

 

[mindlight]

Even though his army is looking less than might have been expected, and there is considerable unrest among the Russian people over this unnecessary war, there's a good chance Putin will decide to take all of Ukraine.

That will put him on the borders of Poland, Hungary, Moldova, Romania, and Slovakia. This will remove much of the buffer existing between the West and his reborn Soviet Union, and he may well think this is to his benefit, especially after everybody has seen what happened to Ukraine.

I am not sure he can reach the Western border with the manpower he has devoted to this. Even with more men, Ukraine would swallow his armies up much as Russian geographical depth once swallowed the great armies of Hitler and Napoleon. He would be faced with continual guerilla activity and attrition of his forces.

Therefore Ukraine is no springboard to future expansion, more like a gigantic money pit for his military budget and a bottomless grave for Russian manpower. His army would be wiped out in hours if he took on NATO. That 40-mile long convoy was a classic example. NATO airpower would remove that shortly after he declared war.

 

[Aryeh Jay]

Zelensky supports abortion.

I would be embarrassed if I found out that abortion has been legal in Russia for over 100 years.
But yes, better to support a maybe Christian than a might be Jew.

 

[Albion]

I am not sure he can reach the Western border with the manpower he has devoted to this. Even with more men, Ukraine would swallow his armies up much as Russian geographical depth once swallowed the great armies of Hitler and Napoleon. He would be faced with continual guerilla activity and attrition of his forces.

I'm not convinced of any of that.

Therefore Ukraine is no springboard to future expansion, more like a gigantic money pit for his military budget and a bottomless grave for Russian manpower.

If that were Putin's concern, he wouldn't have begun an invasion of Ukraine and a "Scorched Earth" approach to fighting it in the first place, there being no real reason for the Russian annexation of any part of that country. Since that is the case, however, the idea of him stopping at the Dnieper makes no sense on any level.