Turkey: The end of Erdogan

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Erdogan came to power on the back of the 1999 earthquake in Turkey criticizing the then government for a failure to enforce building standards. Now a lack of proper building standards has seriously magnified the number of casualties in the recent earthquake near the ancient Christian city of Antioch (now denuded of Christians).
Normally the military would have mobilized to respond to a crisis like this but Erdogan does not trust them in the wake of the military coup attempt against him. So politics relating to the Turkish president appears to have magnified the number of deaths.

There are a number of reasons to suggest that Erdogans time is up:

1) His mismanagement of the economy - high inflation
2) His movement away from Europe and European standards has negatively impacted the lives of ordinary Turks
3) His blockage of Finnish and Swedish membership in NATO
4) He has had a negative impact on the church in Turkey.
5) He has been in power too long and it is time for a change.

Will Erdogan lose the next election? Is the recent earthquake a factor in that?
 
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