Trump's Base WILL Show Up At The Polls

[ubicaritas]

In off-elections, the new president's party usually loses many seats in the House.

One reason is that the turnout is much lower, with many fewer supporters voting.

The second reason is that the president is perceived to have failed to meet promises. Obviously, no president can meet all his promises in 2 years.

Finally, having elected a president, the American public often decides to vote for the other party as a check on the president. The opposition party's people also tend to come out in large numbers to provide a check on the new president.
========================
TRUMP IS DOING ALL HE CAN TO GET HIS BASE TO TURN OUT TO VOTE
Immigration is a HUGE issue for Trump. Standing tough against the hordes from the South and the Middle East resonates with his base. To be clear, Trump's approach may be the only chance Republicans have to hold the House, along with the threat that Democrats will greatly increase their taxes and will approve liberals to the court (who will take away their guns). There is ONE GOAL: to get out the vote.

Sessions, Kelly and Miller strongly supported separation. The pictures were meant to be mean spirited. Steve Miller believes that 90% of Americans support the president on this issue. Trump is most happy having the issue be repressive opposition to illegal entry vs open borders. This will get his base out. Listen to FOX folk.

The bottom line is that Trump holds up the threat that hordes from the South are changing the face of America and that we must preserve what America is. As I have said a few times, that ship has passed. It is too late to Make America White Again. The huge amounts of immigration in the last 50 years has forever changed American from the America of the 50's when old white men had a much higher percentage of the vote and all the real power. In my personal opinion, Trump appeals to those who are still fighting the Civil War. Surely, these folks have not accepting the fact that whites are not the majority in many areas of the country.

I believe you are correct in your analysis, and that's a very good insight. Being mean and cruel was Trump's strategy all along... to energize the base. This isn't about winning over America (he's proven you don't need to do that to get elected), just getting out the vote.

 

[Kentonio]

This is the safe bet based on current trends. Then again, the GOP couldn't even get a GOP senator elected in the Alabama special election, so who knows?

Yeah, that really was special circumstances though. It took an alleged paedophile running for the GOP for the Dems to carry a narrow victory.

 

[Speedwell]

Yeah, that really was special circumstances though. It took an alleged paedophile running for the GOP for the Dems to carry a narrow victory.

I'm not sure that carried much weight--it was in Alabama, after all.

 

[Albion]

The bottom line is that Trump holds up the threat that hordes from the South are changing the face of America and that we must preserve what America is. As I have said a few times, that ship has passed. It is too late to Make America White Again.

What an ugly, untrue, an unnecessary allegation to throw into the mix here. The rest of the post says plenty that is right on target, but why salt it with Maxine Waters-speak...and for no good reason?

The reason for wanting a border is in order to have a country, regardless of who is living in it. And the fact is that the Trump voters likely will turn out, precisely because the Democrats cannot stop the hate campaign that they started, even if some of the more astute of the leaders in the party are urging their people to cool the rhetoric--for the very reason that they see the backlash you are speaking of coming in November.

 

[Speedwell]

What an ugly, untrue, an unnecessary allegation to throw into the mix here. The rest of the post says plenty that is right on target, but why salt it with Maxine Waters-speak...and for no good reason?

The reason for wanting a border is in order to have a country, regardless of who is living in it. And the fact is that the Trump voters likely will turn out, precisely because the Democrats cannot stop the hate campaign that they started, even if some of the more astute of the leaders in the party are urging their people to cool the rhetoric--for the very reason that they see the backlash you are speaking of coming in November.

I think you're right--the Dems are whistling in the dark. They haven't a clue about how to deal with the situation. But I've lived in the Bible Belt; I know where the hate is coming from. You identify with the Christian Right? You're just a Christian who happens to be politically conservative. When the time comes you'll be under the bus with the rest of us.

 

[Albion]

I think you're right--the Dems are whistling in the dark. They haven't a clue about how to deal with the situation. But I've lived in the Bible Belt...

Oh, not that again. The magic words Bible Belt do not excuse everything that's posted on these forums.

 

[mark46]

This is the safe bet based on current trends. Then again, the GOP couldn't even get a GOP senator elected in the Alabama special election, so who knows?

The Republicans are very likely to gain at least a couple of seats in the Senate. Trump's focusing on immigration has almost guaranteed that result. There are 10 Democratic senators running where Trump took their state. Trump is campaigning primarily in these states, most of which are very Republican.

On the other hand, the very same Trump campaign "strategy" will lose Trump votes in relatively rich suburban districts, where is immigration positions are a huge negative. That's OK for him. He was always losing the House. He MUST win the Senate to continue to have support for his appointments, judicial and otherwise.

 

[Speedwell]

Oh, not that again. The magic words Bible Belt do not excuse everything that's posted on these forums.

Oh, all right. I'll just say "Trump supporters" after this. Demographically, it's an equivalent term, anyway.

 

[Albion]

The Republicans are very likely to gain at least a couple of seats in the Senate. Trump's focusing on immigration has almost guaranteed that result. There are 10 Democratic senators running where Trump took their state. Trump is campaigning primarily in these states, most of which are very Republican.

On the other hand, the very same Trump campaign "strategy" will lose Trump votes in relatively rich suburban districts, where is immigration positions are a huge negative. That's OK for him. He was always losing the House. .

Could be.

 

[Albion]

Oh, all right. I'll just say "Trump supporters" after this. Demographically, it's an equivalent term, anyway.

Still, I suppose that that is an improvement. Both claims are just shots in the dark, as it were, but by saying "Trump supporters " we know that its just a generalization and a guess, not something for which you are claiming to have special insights.

 

[mark46]

Democratic and Independent voters have plenty of reasons to vote against Trump, and to hate his statements and actions.

All Democrats need to do is to not talk about impeachment until after the election.

And Democrats need do absolutely nothing about immigration other than continue to broadcast the words of the president and those who work for him.

What an ugly, untrue, an unnecessary allegation to throw into the mix here. The rest of the post says plenty that is right on target, but why salt it with Maxine Waters-speak...and for no good reason?

The reason for wanting a border is in order to have a country, regardless of who is living in it. And the fact is that the Trump voters likely will turn out, precisely because the Democrats cannot stop the hate campaign that they started, even if some of the more astute of the leaders in the party are urging their people to cool the rhetoric--for the very reason that they see the backlash you are speaking of coming in November.

 

[Fantine]

Trump has definitely fed some red meat to the white nationalists, KKK members, and his most hateful followers. It is upsetting to see so many people saying the children got what they deserve because their parents broke the law.

Hopefully the good will be as motivated to vote as the bad are.

In the meantime, maybe we should drug test before we admit people to the polls. PBS found a geographical connection between counties with high opioid use (where 60% were Trump voters) and counties with low opioid use (where only 39% voted for Trump).

In fairness, the article just identifies the correlation without saying that many Trump voters use opioids, but for those of us who have been listening to them for two years, we are still trying to figure out how anyone could have voted for him.

Analysis finds geographic overlap in opioid use and Trump support In 2016

 

[Albion]

Democratic and Independent have plenty of reasons to vote against Trump, and to hate his statements and actions.

You raise an interesting point there. Some people hate but behave, while others act out their hate.

 

[KCfromNC]

Yeah, that really was special circumstances though. It took an alleged paedophile running for the GOP for the Dems to carry a narrow victory.

But this seems to be the sort of candidate that makes it through Trump-voter dominated primaries.

And even in cases where Trump wasn't supporting an alleged pedophile, the increase in D votes compared to 2016 should be pretty alarming for RNC strategists. In AL it just happened to be a more sensational story.

 

[KCfromNC]

On the other hand, the very same Trump campaign "strategy" will lose Trump votes in relatively rich suburban districts, where is immigration positions are a huge negative. That's OK for him. He was always losing the House. He MUST win the Senate to continue to have support for his appointments, judicial and otherwise.

I'm not sure focusing on a strategy which loses him places that most people live is the smartest idea for winning statewide elections for senators. But I'm not going to try and stop it.

 

[mark46]

There are 10 senate seats where incumbent Democrats are running, where Trump won in 2016. Trump doesn't need much to end up with a stronger position in the Senate, where judges and his appointees are approved. Also, this assures him that all legislation is under the control of Republicans. So, yes. it does make sense to focus on small state senate races instead of house races in large population areas.

I'm not sure focusing on a strategy which loses him places that most people live is the smartest idea for winning statewide elections for senators. But I'm not going to try and stop it.

 

[Albion]

Democratic and Independent voters have plenty of reasons to vote against Trump, and to hate his statements and actions.

All Democrats need to do is to not talk about impeachment until after the election.

And Democrats need do absolutely nothing about immigration other than continue to broadcast the words of the president and those who work for him.

I agree that the Democrats chances depend, to a large degree, upon fooling the voters. But that is always the way it is, not just in this election cycle.

 

[Fantine]

Well, at least they don't make fools out of the voters. What must the blue collar veteran think now, with catastrophic cuts to his Social Security and Medicare practically a done deal and the VA healthcare system being dismantled? So many of his rights brushed away by an illegible signature on an unread document. A filthy environment and few worker protections. How awful it must be to think that one might have brought that ruin upon himself...
I will never have that anguish, although the bad decisions of others affect us all.

 

[Albion]

Well, at least they don't make fools out of the voters.

Sure they do. It's just done in a different way from how the Republicans do it.

 

[SimplyMe]

I think people are trying to claim victory way too soon. A lot can happen between now and November. I think one of the big issues that could cost Trump are his tarriffs. Farmers in the midwest, huge Trump supporters 2 years ago, are seriously worried about being able to sell their crops this fall -- as countries they've sold their crops to in the past are blocking US agricultural imports.

Again, it is a long time (in political time) until November.