Trump’s broken 2016 promises to factory workers

[dqhall]

Trump visited economically depressed Ohio in 2016. He told auto workers not to sell their houses. He was going to bring their jobs back. Thousands of factories closed since Trump took office. There has been a net loss of manufacturing jobs.

OPINION: Trump’s Broken Promises to US Factory Workers | Pagosa Daily Post News Events & Video for Pagosa Springs Colorado

 

[Arc F1]

Trump visited economically depressed Ohio in 2016. He told auto workers not to sell their houses. He was going to bring their jobs back. Thousands of factories closed since Trump took office. There has been a net loss of manufacturing jobs.

OPINION: Trump’s Broken Promises to US Factory Workers | Pagosa Daily Post News Events & Video for Pagosa Springs Colorado

That's a simple fix. We all need to support our own and buy American made products.

 

[Acts2:38]

Trump visited economically depressed Ohio in 2016. He told auto workers not to sell their houses. He was going to bring their jobs back. Thousands of factories closed since Trump took office. There has been a net loss of manufacturing jobs.

OPINION: Trump’s Broken Promises to US Factory Workers | Pagosa Daily Post News Events & Video for Pagosa Springs Colorado

You do realize this is just an opinion piece?

Here's the Bureau of Labor data
https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/ces3000000001

Clearly there has been growth since 2010 to even the beginning of 2020. The only reason the jobs took loss was due to shutdowns of the economy because of the virus.

 

[Yekcidmij]

You do realize this is just an opinion piece?

Here's the Bureau of Labor data
https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/ces3000000001

Clearly there has been growth since 2010 to even the beginning of 2020. The only reason the jobs took loss was due to shutdowns of the economy because of the virus.

I don't think this changes the claim that, ceteris paribus and in line with economic theory, tariffs are a drag on economic growth and jobs. In fact, tariffs on imports are no different than tariffs on exports.

Lerner symmetry theorem - Wikipedia

.

 

[Acts2:38]

I don't think this changes the claim that, ceteris paribus and in line with economic theory, tariffs are a drag on economic growth and jobs. In fact, tariffs on imports are no different than tariffs on exports.

Lerner symmetry theorem - Wikipedia

.

Strawman.

If we're going to be honest with ourselves, the claim was "trumps fault, manufacturing took net loss".

I just placed evidence that contradicts that. In fact, any losses in that graph are shown to be making a comeback! Please do not derail the OP.

 

[Yekcidmij]

Strawman.

If we're going to be honest with ourselves, the claim was "trumps fault, manufacturing took net loss".

I just placed evidence that contradicts that. In fact, any losses in that graph are shown to be making a comeback! Please do not derail the OP.

Do raw employment numbers in the manufacturing sector measure the impact of trade policy on employment in the sector? No - or as the old adage goes, correlation is not causation.

 

[Acts2:38]

Do raw employment numbers in the manufacturing sector measure the impact of trade policy on employment in the sector? No - or as the old adage goes, correlation is not causation.

The data is not lying here. Here is another data group that touts the same thing, and pulls from decades further.

Manufacturing sector employment U.S. 2019 | Statista

This shows that manufacturing has been going on the up. Stop trying to say otherwise. The proof is in the pudding.

The ONLY reason there are losses, is due to a virus and an economy shutdown/restrictions. I'm not naive enough to be fooled otherwise. Trump is only a human who cannot predict the future and foresee a virus coming into play. However, we do see job gains up to the point of the virus.

 

[Acts2:38]

I don't think this changes the claim that, ceteris paribus and in line with economic theory, tariffs are a drag on economic growth and jobs. In fact, tariffs on imports are no different than tariffs on exports.

Lerner symmetry theorem - Wikipedia

.

Furthermore, you miss the point of the OP. "Trump's broken 2016 promise to manufacturing".

Because Manufacturing has been on the rise since 2010, and continued to 2020, there is no broken promise. He added 7 million jobs that was undercut by 7.7 million because of a virus that is out of everyones control. Thats just like if I were to blame Obama for a meteor to come crashing through wrecking an entire economic sector, after he promised an increase in that particular sector. How would it be his fault? It wouldnt. So how could anyone blame trump for a virus doing the same?

 

[Yekcidmij]

The data is not lying here.

Who said it's lying?

Here is another data group that touts the same thing, and pulls from decades further.

I'm not disagreeing with raw employment numbers.

This shows that manufacturing has been going on the up. Stop trying to say otherwise. The proof is in the pudding.

What I'm saying is that you are not measuring the impact of trade policy by quoting raw employment numbers. This is really just basic analysis. Any number of factors beyond trade policy go into employment numbers. So again, correlation is not causation. Your dependent variable (employment in the manufacturing sector) is not being modeled accurately; at the outset you're omitting other important factors. So my issue is not the raw numbers; my issue is that your use of the raw numbers does not warrant the conclusion you try to draw - and this is because raw numbers alone do not describe the impact of trade policy, which is what you're trying to measure

The ONLY reason there are losses, is due to a virus and an economy shutdown/restrictions.

I also don't doubt the overwhelming impact of covid on employment data.

I'm not naive enough to be fooled otherwise.

Well, you are doing analysis incorrectly, and it does look a little naive where you're trying to use correlation to prove causation. Raw, total employment numbers in manufacturing are not sufficient to explain impacts of trade policy on employment in the manufacturing sector.

Trump is only a human who cannot predict the future and foresee a virus coming into play.

I haven't said otherwise.

However, we do see job gains up to the point of the virus.

And is this due to trade policy? That looks to be your claim. And what do you base this on?

 

[dqhall]

You do realize this is just an opinion piece?

Here's the Bureau of Labor data
https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/ces3000000001

Clearly there has been growth since 2010 to even the beginning of 2020. The only reason the jobs took loss was due to shutdowns of the economy because of the virus.

If you look at the data since Trump took office in 2017, the hours and wages have dropped significantly as Trump did not want to control the virus like China did. They are seeing growth.

Wages grew due to monetary inflation. The price of a new home has also gone up in many locations since 2010 - mainly the Obama years.

Your chart did not show individual jobs either. They disappeared after Trump bragged about the greatest economy on record. It turned out to be flimsier than he thought.

 

[dqhall]

Furthermore, you miss the point of the OP. "Trump's broken 2016 promise to manufacturing".

Because Manufacturing has been on the rise since 2010, and continued to 2020, there is no broken promise. He added 7 million jobs that was undercut by 7.7 million because of a virus that is out of everyones control. Thats just like if I were to blame Obama for a meteor to come crashing through wrecking an entire economic sector, after he promised an increase in that particular sector. How would it be his fault? It wouldnt. So how could anyone blame trump for a virus doing the same?

Wall Street crashed towards the end of the Bush administration. The stock market started to rise in early 2009 within weeks of Obama being sworn in and was phenomenal for another ten years.

 

[Halbhh]

Furthermore, you miss the point of the OP. "Trump's broken 2016 promise to manufacturing".

Because Manufacturing has been on the rise since 2010, and continued to 2020, there is no broken promise. He added 7 million jobs that was undercut by 7.7 million because of a virus that is out of everyones control. Thats just like if I were to blame Obama for a meteor to come crashing through wrecking an entire economic sector, after he promised an increase in that particular sector. How would it be his fault? It wouldnt. So how could anyone blame trump for a virus doing the same?

When the fall increase began...

Consider: After our big effort in April through May, cases were at a better level (for us).

Could we have then kept the virus down at that lower level?

Look and See

As you can see, we didn't do nearly as well during Summer -- June, as other nations.

And therefore when fall came, and the fall increase began, everywhere in all nations, we started from an already high level.

Because when it mattered, in June, Trump set an example that millions followed of only occasionally wearing a mask for show.

 

[dqhall]

When the fall increase began...

Consider: After our big effort in April through May, cases were at a better level (for us).

Could we have then kept the virus down at that lower level?

Look and See

As you can see, we didn't do nearly as well during Summer -- June, as other nations.

And therefore when fall came, and the fall increase began, everywhere in all nations, we started from an already high level.

Because when it mattered, in June, Trump set an example that millions followed of only occasionally wearing a mask for show.

Melbourne, Australia a city of 5,000,000 reported 0 new cases of COVID, then reopened 100%. Some bars stayed open 24 hours in celebration. New Zealand has 0% COVID. Some doctors left the U.S. to work in New Zealand. China and Vietnam had zero cases. I don’t know of others.

 

[Acts2:38]

If you look at the data since Trump took office in 2017, the hours and wages have dropped significantly as Trump did not want to control the virus like China did. They are seeing growth.

Wages grew due to monetary inflation. The price of a new home has also gone up in many locations since 2010 - mainly the Obama years.

Your chart did not show individual jobs either. They disappeared after Trump bragged about the greatest economy on record. It turned out to be flimsier than he thought.

Wall Street crashed towards the end of the Bush administration. The stock market started to rise in early 2009 within weeks of Obama being sworn in and was phenomenal for another ten years.

Yes, look at the data. Forbes states (and they got their sources from the bureau also)

"In the last 30 months of President Obama’s term, manufacturing employment grew by 185,000 or 1.5%. In President Trump’s first 30 months, manufacturers added 499,000 jobs, expanding by 4.0%. In the same 30-month time span during the mature, post-recovery phase of the business cycle, some 314,000 more manufacturing jobs were added under Trump than under Obama, a 170% advantage..."

In Trump's First 30 Months, Manufacturing Up By 314,000 Jobs Over Obama; Which States Are Hot?

So when you look at that little map, you see that from 2016 to at least 2019, Ohio got anywhere from 2.5-6.4% increase according to the legend (From the bureau of labor).

Your premise was "Trump broke his promise about bringing back manufacturing". You used Ohio as an example.

Your premise has been completely defeated in light of these facts.

Anything else you bring up is completely irrelevant and strawman. No promise was broken, no man can predict the future of catastrophes, and manufacturing went up (4% to Obamas 1.5% in 30 month time span). And the good part is, Ohio saw at the very least 2.5%, and at most 6.4%.

And please stop trying to say the virus is Trumps fault. Did he create the virus? Did he ship it around the world?

Lets be honest and fair about this. In the words of Biden "C'mon man!". The only reason there is job loss is due to an economy shutdown/restrictions. Otherwise, there would have been another year of growth in the manufacturing dept.

Manufacturing, before the virus and shutdowns, estimated there to be growth and predicted growth. They expected growth to be "2.4% in 2020".
US Manufacturing Growth and Outlook in 2020 and Beyond - TERRA Staffing Group

These articles and sources prove that Trump kept his promise to bring manufacturing back.

Again, your premise "Trump’s broken 2016 promises to factory workers" is utterly defeated.

 

[dqhall]

Yes, look at the data. Forbes states (and they got their sources from the bureau also)

"In the last 30 months of President Obama’s term, manufacturing employment grew by 185,000 or 1.5%. In President Trump’s first 30 months, manufacturers added 499,000 jobs, expanding by 4.0%. In the same 30-month time span during the mature, post-recovery phase of the business cycle, some 314,000 more manufacturing jobs were added under Trump than under Obama, a 170% advantage..."

In Trump's First 30 Months, Manufacturing Up By 314,000 Jobs Over Obama; Which States Are Hot?

So when you look at that little map, you see that from 2016 to at least 2019, Ohio got anywhere from 2.5-6.4% increase according to the legend (From the bureau of labor).

Your premise was "Trump broke his promise about bringing back manufacturing". You used Ohio as an example.

Your premise has been completely defeated in light of these facts.

Anything else you bring up is completely irrelevant and strawman. No promise was broken, no man can predict the future of catastrophes, and manufacturing went up (4% to Obamas 1.5% in 30 month time span). And the good part is, Ohio saw at the very least 2.5%, and at most 6.4%.

And please stop trying to say the virus is Trumps fault. Did he create the virus? Did he ship it around the world?

Lets be honest and fair about this. In the words of Biden "C'mon man!". The only reason there is job loss is due to an economy shutdown/restrictions. Otherwise, there would have been another year of growth in the manufacturing dept.

Manufacturing, before the virus and shutdowns, estimated there to be growth and predicted growth. They expected growth to be "2.4% in 2020".
US Manufacturing Growth and Outlook in 2020 and Beyond - TERRA Staffing Group

These articles and sources prove that Trump kept his promise to bring manufacturing back.

Again, your premise "Trump’s broken 2016 promises to factory workers" is utterly defeated.

Those jobs are gone. We have close to 8% unemployment with Trump. Someone is lying.

 

[Archivist]

During the 2016 election Trump promised the coal miners here in West Virginia that he was going to bring the mines back. Instead more mines have closed, more miners laid off. Yet Trump is making the same promise this election.

Now coal job are being lost because coal is loosing ground to natural gas and to renewables. Those are factors out of Trump's control. But it was known that was happening before Trump made his promise. Why make a promise he could not keep?

Clinton lost West Virginia big in 2016 because she said she was going to close the coal mines. Stupid thing for her to say; her words were repeated on every Trump ad here. However, in her defense she went on to say that she would have miners retrained for jobs with renewables. That would have been the smart thing to do because, as I said, renewables are overtaking coal.

Has Trump lived up to his promise to revive the US coal industry?

 

[Acts2:38]

During the 2016 election Trump promised the coal miners here in West Virginia that he was going to bring the mines back. Instead more mines have closed, more miners laid off. Yet Trump is making the same promise this election.

Now coal job are being lost because coal is loosing ground to natural gas and to renewables. Those are factors out of Trump's control. But it was known that was happening before Trump made his promise. Why make a promise he could not keep?

Clinton lost West Virginia big in 2016 because she said she was going to close the coal mines. Stupid thing for her to say; her words were repeated on every Trump ad here. However, in her defense she went on to say that she would have miners retrained for jobs with renewables. That would have been the smart thing to do because, as I said, renewables are overtaking coal.

Has Trump lived up to his promise to revive the US coal industry?

Trump's Numbers January 2020 Update - FactCheck.org

This states that coal went on the rise under Trump.

Under Obama, it declined HEAVILY
Obama's Final Numbers - FactCheck.org

 

[Acts2:38]

Those jobs are gone. We have close to 8% unemployment with Trump. Someone is lying.

What you are trying to do, is blame a "natural disaster" upon someone. And whats worse, by closing the economy for the safety of people, what do you think will happen? Job loss. This would have happened no matter what president was in office. I never blamed N1H1 on Obama. And I wont blame this one on Trump.

Please stop deflecting and avoiding your OP statement. The fact of the matter is, you stated he failed his promise. You said he failed the 2016 promise. Evidence says otherwise.

I PROVED to you that he didnt. The virus happening here does not mean he broke that promise.

 

[Archivist]

Trump's Numbers January 2020 Update - FactCheck.org

This states that coal went on the rise under Trump.

Under Obama, it declined HEAVILY
Obama's Final Numbers - FactCheck.org

The source you provided says "As a candidate, Trump promised to “put our [coal] miners back to work,” but so far not many have regained their jobs. As of December, only 1,200 coal mining jobs had come back since Trump took office, according to BLS figures. That’s 3% of the 35,600 coal mining jobs that disappeared during the Obama years. U.S. coal production last year was on track to be the lowest in 41 years. During the 12 months ending in November (the most recent for which figures are available), the Energy Information Administration estimated that 715 million short tons were produced, which is 1.8% below the figure for 2016. The last time annual production was this low was 1978. The outlook for coal miners remains bleak. This month EIA predicted that coal production would fall 14% more in 2020. EIA expects natural gas will continue to displace coal for the generation of electricity.

 

[hedrick]

Trump implicitly promised to bring back the same jobs that people lost. I'm skeptical. That's different from looking at manufacturing in the country as a whole. The economy changes all the time. It's rarely possible, however, to bring back areas that are losing. We should have ways of helping people transition. That doesn't seem to be something Trump has been interested in.