All one must do is look at the events themselves and conclude what is most likely to be true.
No. What we are explaining are not the events, but the
accounts of the events. One explanation is that these are eye-witness accounts of supernatural events that took place.
A far more likely explanation is that these - like every other supernatural event that has been reported, and which you likely yourself discount, Matthew - are actually tall tales. Myths, fables, stories or exaggerations - take your pick.
For instance, consider the following (an example taken from an essay by Richard Carrier, and re-worded so I don't have to quote): in around 500 A.D., a monk (annonymous) made writings of the life of one Saint Genevieve. She had died only ten years earlier. In this account, the monk describes how, when she ordered a cursed tree cut down, monsters leaped out from it and breathed a fatal stench on lots of men for two hours. While she was sailing, eleven ships capsized, but at her prayers they were righted again spontaneously; she cast out demons, calmed storms, miraculously created water and oil from nothing before astonished crowds, healed the blind and lame, and several people who stole things from her actually went blind instead.
We have found nothing written (or responses to anything written) to suggest these claims are false. The person who wrote them considered it immoral to lie.
And yet do we believe them?
Absolutely not. And we shouldn't. Because we can explain it without the need for monsters leaping from trees, or ships being righted due to prayers.
Fantastical stories tend to be just that - fantastical stories.