The U.S. crime rate is still dropping, FBI data shows. Q4 2023 had 13% drop in murder, 6% drop in violent crime

[The Barbarian]

If 70% of Cleveland's police are reporting their stuff to the FBI, and only 13% NYC's police are reporting their stuff...that's not the same.

If NY had been doing a good job of reporting and then started doing a bad job, then your assumption would be valid. But if not, the decline in crime would be a valid statistic. The absolute numbers would be off (and they are off to some degree in all systems), but the decline would still be documented. Do you see why?

BTW, Cleveland had a 13.46 increase in homicides last year. Do you see why (assuming that Cleveland also uses the same reporting practices) that number would be just as valid as the number for New York?

 

[Palmfever]

Interesting.

AMERICANS CHARTED RECORD BOOK YEAR FOR FIREARMS IN 2023, WITH 2024 LOOMING LARGE TOO​

Gun control activists and President Joe Biden’s strategists need to rethink their attacks on who’s buying all these firearms and why they are doing it. Their playbook is tired and inaccurate. Remember the president’s first nominee to be director at the Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms and Explosives (ATF) David Chipman mocked gun owners especially first-time buyers – during his Congressional nomination hearing, calling them “more like Tiger King” and comparing them to apocalypse preppers and zombie hunters.

The reality though is that several million firearm buyers over the past few years, including those throughout 2023, have been Americans likely coming from all walks of life and political persuasions. NSSF survey data has shown since 2020, firearm purchases by first-time buyers hovered around 30 percent. If that rough estimate were applied to 2023’s figures, approximately 4.8 million Americans became first-time firearm owners in the last year. That’s significant...

...The Washington Post reported on the growing diversity among American gun owners, too. In a social media post on X, formerly Twitter, the Post wrote, “Through discreet meetups and word-of-mouth networks, LGBTQ+ gun owners are teaching their community how to arm themselves.”

NSSF has reported on this growing gun-owning community as well.

Still one of the most significant groups changing their beliefs about gun ownership and heading out to purchase firearms, including significant numbers of first-time buyers, are Jewish Americans. There is no shortage of news coverage reporting on Jewish Americans buying firearms since the October 7 Hamas terrorist attacks on Israel. CNN, Fox News, NBC News, the New York Post and many others have noted the buying surge.

 

[QvQ]

Not everything illegal is a crime. Try to stay focused.

The point you are missing is that Disorder is Increasing.
That is the public perception of "crime."

Was it a crime to lay hands on a women to stop her while begging for spare change?
Yes it is. It is kidnap and assault, technically.

Is it a crime to poop in the street?
Indecent exposure to a person who is fifteen or more years of age is a class 1 misdemeanor, except that it is a class 6 felony if the defendant has two or more prior convictions for a violation of this section or has one or more prior convictions.

Specifically:
In certain jurisdictions, open or public defecation is a criminal offense that can be punished with a fine or even imprisonment.

And for the record:
Illegal entry into the U.S. is a federal crime that often comes with civil penalties

This is from News Week 2023"
"Notably, some violent crimes, including homicides, were still higher than their pre-pandemic numbers despite declines."

"Jan 8, 2024 — Homicide and most other violent crime declined in American cities in 2023, but levels remain above those seen before the onset of the COVID ...



Try to stay focused.

 

[The Barbarian]

The Washington Post reported on the growing diversity among American gun owners, too. In a social media post on X, formerly Twitter, the Post wrote, “Through discreet meetups and word-of-mouth networks, LGBTQ+ gun owners are teaching their community how to arm themselves.”

NSSF has reported on this growing gun-owning community as well.

I wouldn't be surprised if Asian, Jewish, Muslim, black and LGBTQ people were arming themselves. White supremacists are currently targeting those people, and tend to be violent.

Last time I saw a study on this...

Nearly Half Of Guns In U.S. Owned By 3 Percent Of Population, Study Finds​

Roughly half of all the guns in this country are possessed by just 3 percent of American adults. That's one of the top findings in a new survey on gun ownership in America from researchers at Harvard and Northeastern universities.

The study also reveals that even as the country has gotten less violent, most gun owners say they bought weapons for self-protection, rather than for hunting or target shooting. Lois Beckett covers gun policy and politics for The Guardian. And she wrote about this study and joins us from New York. https://www.npr.org/2016/09/20/4947...-owned-by-3-percent-of-population-study-finds

Notice that this doesn't say that 3 percent of Americans own guns. Do you have something more current that shows a reversal of this trend?

From 2023:
About 1/3 of Americans say that they own a gun.
...
Americans are evenly split over whether gun ownership does more to increase or decrease safety. About half (49%) say it does more to increase safety by allowing law-abiding citizens to protect themselves, but an equal share say gun ownership does more to reduce safety by giving too many people access to firearms and increasing misuse.

Key facts about Americans and guns

Six-in-ten U.S. adults say gun violence is a very big problem in the country today, up 9 percentage points from spring 2022.

www.pewresearch.org

Many years ago, when I was managing a department that included safety responsibilities, I got National Safety Association updates. A study back in the early 80s showed that about 20% of Americans lived where it was sufficiently dangerous that it was safer to have a gun than to not have one. The study used accidental firearms deaths and NRA data on people who had used a gun to defend themselves. Edit: One can always improve the odds by being trained and using good firearms safety practices.

Violent crime and homicides have dropped markedly since then, so it likely would be less than that now. But for some Americans, having a gun for protection is a rational behavior. Moving to a safer place in America would be even smarter. States where it's more dangerous...

List of U.S. states and territories by violent crime rate - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

Probably a lot of variation within each state, of course.

 

[The Barbarian]

And for the record:
Illegal entry into the U.S. is a federal crime that often comes with civil penalties

But coming in legally and overstaying is not a crime. Not everything that is illegal is a crime.

"Notably, some violent crimes, including homicides, were still higher than their pre-pandemic numbers despite declines."

The news says that under Biden crime declined from the high levels under Trump. But more than that...
Dec 28, 2023 - Politics & Policy

Homicides in U.S. set to drop by record numbers this year​

"Murder plummeted in the United States in 2023, likely at one of the fastest rates of decline ever recorded," writes Jeff Asher, co-founder of AH Datalytics, which tracks homicide numbers across the country.

By the numbers: Preliminary public data from 177 cities analyzed by AH Datalytics indicates that the country could see at least a 12% decrease in murders from last year.

• Declines have been seen in New York City, Chicago, Los Angeles, Detroit and other large cities.
• The firm expects homicides overall to fall from 21,156 last year to around 18,450 this year, representing a 12.8% decline.
• Other forms of violent crime — rape, aggravated assault and robbery — are set to see a decline as well, according to preliminary quarterly data published by the FBI earlier this month.

https://www.axios.com/2023/12/28/us-murder-violent-crime-rates-drop

The other point is that even though violent crime went up significantly under Trump it was still lower that it was a couple of decades ago.

 

[ThatRobGuy]

If NY had been doing a good job of reporting and then started doing a bad job, then your assumption would be valid. But if not, the decline in crime would be a valid statistic. The absolute numbers would be off (and they are off to some degree in all systems), but the decline would still be documented. Do you see why?

BTW, Cleveland had a 13.46 increase in homicides last year. Do you see why (assuming that Cleveland also uses the same reporting practices) that number would be just as valid as the number for New York?

Oh I'm aware Cleveland is terrible, I avoid going there if at all possible...

but to the other bit...
NYC has always done a particularly poor job of reporting to the FBI...which means they can't say that crime is going down. Period.

With reporting rates of < 20% it's impossible to establish a trend with any certainty. And when that modest reporting rate is combined with the fact that there's a backlog for the small percentage of precincts that do participate (up to 3-4 months backlog by some estimates), that means that a crime that happened last months, may not show up in the data until June.

There are also a few other factors to consider:

Not all "crime" is equal, nor is it perceived as equal.

Per CBS New York
Murders were down by 11.9% in 2023 with 386, as opposed to 438 murders in 2022. And rapes have seen double-digit percentage point decreases since 2022.

It's not all good news, however. The city has seen a 6.3% increase in assaults and a 15.0% increase in grand larceny. Stabbings and slashings are also up just over 5%

This is directly from the NYPD

(apologies for the small print)

Being that murders and rapes are far more infrequent than assaults and grand larceny.

A 12% decrease to rapes and murders are going to be much less noticeable for most people (in a city of millions of people) than a 6% & 15% increase to assault and larceny.

The reductions to rapes and murders equates to ~200 fewer incidents

The increase of 6% for assaults equates to ~1600 more incidents
The increase of 15% for larceny equates to ~7500 more incidents


Or to put it in more plain Jane terms.

For many people, if there's 1 less murder and 2 fewer rapes in their neighborhood, but 25 more assaults and and 60 more thefts (compared to the previous years), many people are going to have the perception that crime is getting worse, as the likelihood is increasing that more people will be victimized by "crime" (or know someone who was) in a general sense.

Obviously for anyone who's sensible, they'd rather have their wallet stolen 5 times that get raped/murdered...but that's not typically how people process/perceive things when it comes to whether they they see their neighborhood safety with respect to crime.

 

[QvQ]

Or to put it in more plain Jane terms.

For many people, if there's 1 less murder and 2 fewer rapes in their neighborhood, but 25 more assaults and and 60 more thefts (compared to the previous years), many people are going to have the perception that crime is getting worse, as the likelihood is increasing that more people will be victimized by "crime" (or know someone who was) in a general sense.

Obviously for anyone who's sensible, they'd rather have their wallet stolen 5 times that get raped/murdered...but that's not typically how people process/perceive things when it comes to whether they they see their neighborhood safety with respect to crime.

Exactly
The OP states, Disorder is increasing but crime is decreasing.
Who legalized Disorder?
And Disorder escalates.
Smashing windows, looting and burning is now Disorder. It is not a crime if it is done in the name of social justice.

California maintained Order in Haight Ashbury in the 1960's where there were flocks of homeless drug users roaming about by arresting people for public urination, public drug use, and any sign of "Disorderly Conduct."

It is a concept of policing where "take care of the pennies and pounds will take care of themselves."
The police in San Francisco used those "disorderly" statues to identify who was there, and what was needed. Maybe a bus ticket home.
The police were policing, not running a social service.

 

[Palmfever]

I wouldn't be surprised if Asian, Jewish, Muslim, black and LGBTQ people were arming themselves. White supremacists are currently targeting those people, and tend to be violent.

Last time I saw a study on this...

Nearly Half Of Guns In U.S. Owned By 3 Percent Of Population, Study Finds​

Roughly half of all the guns in this country are possessed by just 3 percent of American adults. That's one of the top findings in a new survey on gun ownership in America from researchers at Harvard and Northeastern universities.

The study also reveals that even as the country has gotten less violent, most gun owners say they bought weapons for self-protection, rather than for hunting or target shooting. Lois Beckett covers gun policy and politics for The Guardian. And she wrote about this study and joins us from New York. https://www.npr.org/2016/09/20/4947...-owned-by-3-percent-of-population-study-finds

Notice that this doesn't say that 3 percent of Americans own guns. Do you have something more current that shows a reversal of this trend?

From 2023:
About 1/3 of Americans say that they own a gun.
...
Americans are evenly split over whether gun ownership does more to increase or decrease safety. About half (49%) say it does more to increase safety by allowing law-abiding citizens to protect themselves, but an equal share say gun ownership does more to reduce safety by giving too many people access to firearms and increasing misuse.

Key facts about Americans and guns

Six-in-ten U.S. adults say gun violence is a very big problem in the country today, up 9 percentage points from spring 2022.

www.pewresearch.org

Many years ago, when I was managing a department that included safety responsibilities, I got National Safety Association updates. A study back in the early 80s showed that about 20% of Americans lived where it was sufficiently dangerous that it was safer to have a gun than to not have one. The study used accidental firearms deaths and NRA data on people who had used a gun to defend themselves. Edit: One can always improve the odds by being trained and using good firearms safety practices.

Violent crime and homicides have dropped markedly since then, so it likely would be less than that now. But for some Americans, having a gun for protection is a rational behavior. Moving to a safer place in America would be even smarter. States where it's more dangerous...

List of U.S. states and territories by violent crime rate - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

Probably a lot of variation within each state, of course.

While true the murder rate is down, it is still higher than pre pandemic levels considerably.
Politicians love to bandy about true, yet partial stats.
AP
The FBI’s report was in line with the findings of the nonpartisan Council on Criminal Justice, which found that homicides were down an average of 10% in a survey of 32 cities over the year before, though it found violent crime still remained higher than before the coronavirus pandemic in many cities.

Homicides showed a steep 29% increase in 2020, the largest one-year jump since the FBI began keeping records. The rise defied easy explanation, though experts said possible contributors included the massive disruption of the pandemic, gun violence, worries about the economy and intense stress.

Thanks,
In Christ

 

[Lukaris]

That's the MAGA fixation. It's why they depend on innumeracy to spread their cult.

Which is what all the denial we see here is about.

As a conservative, I am unsure of where to go as things stand. The war in Ukraine started when the current POTUS was vice and was at least contained under Trump. It has resumed to a point where concerns over using nuclear weapons exist.

Then there was the “Arab Spring” debacle and the emergence of ISIS which the Demo apparatus said was a “jv” team. Yes, they meddled in domestic affairs of Arab nations. For ex.

The “Arab Spring” included destabilizing Egypt under Mubarak but the Egyptians later took matters into their own hands in 2013. If they had not, the Middle East would probably be worse off even now.

2013 Egyptian coup d'état - Wikipedia

en.m.wikipedia.org

The wonderful “Arab Spring” produced greater refugee crises on top of ongoing refugee crises. Great stuff, it seems like many libs want to cry for the masses. If the masses aren’t crying, I guess the libs will produce a crisis so everyone is crying.

Arab spring prompts biggest migrant wave since second world war | Migration | The Guardian

Migrants fleeing the Middle East and north Africa are already risking everything as they try to escape war at home<br><a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/jan/03/relief-syrian-refugees-ezadeen-docks-italy-moral-blackmail-smugglers" title="">Migrants give thanks after ‘ghost ship’...

amp.theguardian.com

Then there is the current US border crisis ( note the similarities to destabilizing nations during the “ Arab Spring”). The otherwise “green environment” policies of the current US junta have major political loopholes like flying in over 300,000 people from anywhere but the average US citizen will probably be charged for destroying the earth for driving gas vehicles to get to work.

Biden admin flew hundreds of thousands of migrants into US using CBP One app

nbcmontana.com

MAGA, MAGA,…. yeah right. Liberalism is a disaster & a death cult.


The link for the Hillary Shrillary video didn’t take above but here is a general google link. An appropriate epitaph for a death cult.

hillary clinton celebrating gaddafi's death - Google Search

 

[The Barbarian]

As a conservative, I am unsure of where to go as things stand. The war in Ukraine started when the current POTUS was vice and was at least contained under Trump.

Trump was no doubt grateful to his boss for holding off on the invasion until Biden was president. But it hasn't gone so well for him.

Then there was the “Arab Spring” debacle and the emergence of ISIS which the Demo apparatus said was a “jv” team.

Pretty much so. They got taken down with relative ease, while Trump signed a surrender to the Taliban. The Kurdish militias were highly effective working with us, until Trump betrayed them to the Russians and Syrians.

Then there is the current US border crisis

Republicans scream about it, but never do anything of substance about it. Here's a particularly blatant lie by a GOP senator to excuse their failure:


Sen. Ron Johnson (R-Wis.) said Sunday that Republicans didn’t control Congress during the first two years of President Trump’s presidency despite having majorities in both chambers.

Johnson said that while the GOP had a majority in the Senate during Trump’s first two years in office, they didn’t control the chamber since Democrats had a large minority.

“You said we controlled both chambers. We didn’t,” Johnson told NBC’s “Meet the Press” host Chuck Todd, who questioned why Republicans didn’t approve funding for Trump’s proposed border wall while they had those majorities.

“We had a majority in the Senate. So you don’t control it. We needed Democrats to support us and they’ve been unified in trying to thwart this president’s No. 1 issue in the campaign, which was to secure the borders,” Johnson said.

“So no, we didn’t have control,” he continued. “We needed Democrats, we never had any cooperation from Democrats, which is regrettable.”

Republicans were in the majority in both the House and the Senate during the first two years of the Trump presidency, but they only held a slight advantage in the Senate.

GOP senator says Republicans didn’t control Senate when they held majority

Sen. Ron Johnson (R-Wis.) said Sunday that Republicans didn’t control Congress during the first two years of President Trump’s presidency despite having majorities in bot…

thehill.com

Liberalism is a disaster & a death cult.

You're starting to hyperventilate. Just saying...

hillary clinton celebrating gaddafi's death - Google Search

The guy who blew up an airliner over Scotland? The guy who kidnapped Libyan schoolgirls for his personal pleasure? That guy? You think it's odd that people are glad he's dead?

Well, maybe Trump or Jeffery Epstein would have some sympathy for him.

 

[The Barbarian]

While true the murder rate is down, it is still higher than pre pandemic levels considerably.
Politicians love to bandy about true, yet partial stats.

Well, let's take a look...

In three years, it's almost down to pre-Trump levels. Not down to the Obama average but under Biden, it dropped rapidly, each year. C'mon.

Homicides showed a steep 29% increase in 2020, the largest one-year jump since the FBI began keeping records. The rise defied easy explanation, though experts said possible contributors included the massive disruption of the pandemic, gun violence, worries about the economy and intense stress.

See the graph. The pandemic was a major cause of the rise, which BTW, was still much lower than it was at the start of the 1990s. To be fair, Trump isn't responsible for all of that. But if he hadn't bungled the pandemic response, it would probably have been lower.

 

[The Barbarian]

NYC has always done a particularly poor job of reporting to the FBI...which means they can't say that crime is going down. Period.

You're confusing accuracy and reliability.

 

[ThatRobGuy]

You're confusing accuracy and reliability.

It's a distinction without a difference.

The ability to infer or extrapolate anything from the data can't be achieved without at least a somewhat substantial degree of participation.

It doesn't have to be 100% to make a well reasoned judgement call...nobody is setting the expectation at "perfection", but it certainly can't be 13%.

When they report results on election night. Is anyone willing to "call it" for a state when said state only has 13% of districts reporting their results? Or do they wait until they have a much higher percentage of the districts reporting before they'll go out on a limb and call it?


If 80% of police precincts have well over half of their results reported to NIBRS (like Colorado does, they're one the best states in terms of crime data reporting to the FBI), then that's enough coverage to make some solid inferences about trends.

In New York's case, that's simply not the reality.

I know there's a propensity for people on the left to want to defend places like New York City purely because they know how much conservatives like to bash it and it's a way for them to "own" the other side because if they can prove that "progressive policies work", they can put a notch on their belt. But the reality is, you don't need to call in the army to keep order on the subway when things are going great in terms of crime.


There are certain issues that are 'losers' for the respective sides. Abortion and Marijuana policy have proven to be a loser for Republicans. Progressive crime and policing policies have proven to be a loser for Democrats. People need to own the mistakes, make the necessary adjustments, and move forward.

 

[Palmfever]

Why does the public think it's going up? “There is definitely more disorder in cities than there was five years ago," said one expert. “People confuse disorder and crime."

New FBI data confirms previous indications that crime in the U.S. declined significantly in 2023, continuing a post-pandemic trend and belying widespread perceptions that crime is rising.

“It suggests that when we get the final data in October, we will have seen likely the largest one-year decline in murder that has ever been recorded,” said Jeff Asher, a former CIA analyst who now studies crime trends.

View attachment 344405

Why does the public think it's going up? “There is definitely more disorder in cities than there was five years ago," said one expert. “People confuse disorder and crime."

New FBI data confirms previous indications that crime in the U.S. declined significantly in 2023, continuing a post-pandemic trend and belying widespread perceptions that crime is rising.

“It suggests that when we get the final data in October, we will have seen likely the largest one-year decline in murder that has ever been recorded,” said Jeff Asher, a former CIA analyst who now studies crime trends.

Well, let's take a look...

View attachment 344576
In three years, it's almost down to pre-Trump levels. Not down to the Obama average but under Biden, it dropped rapidly, each year. C'mon.


See the graph. The pandemic was a major cause of the rise, which BTW, was still much lower than it was at the start of the 1990s. To be fair, Trump isn't responsible for all of that. But if he hadn't bungled the pandemic response, it would probably have been lower.

Trump aside, Covid and the consequent shutdown put many people in uneasy frame of mind. And for what is is worth advent of Kung Flu was difficult to manage and while it is easy for us blow smoke and point fingers. There is, other than anecdotal blather little evidence that any one person would have magically made it all disappear. Politicians on both sides of the aisle are skilled duplicitous purveyors of prevarications and tarradiddle.

FBI Crime Data Explorer

FBI Crime Data Explorer

NPR
In 2015, the FBI announced that it would be switching from its previous system to only using NIBRS beginning in 2021, meaning that as of this year, departments had to submit data via NIBRS or not at all.

As it turns out, many chose the latter. The 63% of law enforcement agencies that submitted data for 2021 marks the lowest level of participation the FBI has reported in decades, and only 52% of them submitted a full 12 months of data.
This new methodology, and the numbers themselves, come at a precarious time, Asher says. It doesn't just make it harder for stakeholders to work on solutions; it also makes it harder to refute false claims about crime, especially this election season.

Elections​

So how should people be sorting through all this messaging? Asher says that as a data analyst, he wants to focus on the data — while a chart isn't necessarily the most effective means of communication, he says the numbers behind the claims are crucial.

"Absent that, we get a lot of politicians that are saying a lot of things that frequently are based on anecdote or sort of the vibes of the moment," he says. "And we get, then, a lot of misinformation and poor decisions being made in the name of data-less arguments."

 

[The Barbarian]

Trump aside, Covid and the consequent shutdown put many people in uneasy frame of mind. And for what is is worth advent of Kung Flu was difficult to manage and while it is easy for us blow smoke and point fingers. There is, other than anecdotal blather little evidence that any one person would have magically made it all disappear. Politicians on both sides of the aisle are skilled duplicitous purveyors of prevarications and tarradiddle.

Hmmm... my point:
See the graph. The pandemic was a major cause of the rise, which BTW, was still much lower than it was at the start of the 1990s. To be fair, Trump isn't responsible for all of that. But if he hadn't bungled the pandemic response, it would probably have been lower.

But thanks for the tarradiddle. I notice you removed the data for 2023. I think I know why.
Dec 28, 2023 - Politics & Policy

Homicides in U.S. set to drop by record numbers this year​

"Murder plummeted in the United States in 2023, likely at one of the fastest rates of decline ever recorded," writes Jeff Asher, co-founder of AH Datalytics, which tracks homicide numbers across the country.

The record decline in homicides is also not entirely Biden's doing, just as the record rise in homicides was not entirely Trump's fault.

 

[The Barbarian]

It doesn't have to be 100% to make a well reasoned judgement call...nobody is setting the expectation at "perfection", but it certainly can't be 13%.

Perhaps you aren't familiar with how large a sample is valid for a given degree of confidence.

 

[Palmfever]

Hmmm... my point:
See the graph. The pandemic was a major cause of the rise, which BTW, was still much lower than it was at the start of the 1990s. To be fair, Trump isn't responsible for all of that. But if he hadn't bungled the pandemic response, it would probably have been lower.

But thanks for the tarradiddle. I notice you removed the data for 2023. I think I know why.
Dec 28, 2023 - Politics & Policy

Homicides in U.S. set to drop by record numbers this year​

"Murder plummeted in the United States in 2023, likely at one of the fastest rates of decline ever recorded," writes Jeff Asher, co-founder of AH Datalytics, which tracks homicide numbers across the country.

The record decline in homicides is also not entirely Biden's doing, just as the record rise in homicides was not entirely Trump's fault.

I removed nothing. And info for the entire year of 23 I haven't found yet.

 

[Lukaris]

Khadafy was horrible and so was Saddam , do you support the lie that Saddam had weapons of mass destruction? As bad as Khadafy was even junkyard dogs get old & tired & had become irrelevant in the area of terrorism. Iraq has been a mess since Saddam was toppled ( as an isolationist, I opposed the Bush regimes). Lybia has had a lot of fallout since 2011.

Libyan Crisis (2011–present) - Wikipedia

en.m.wikipedia.org

Libyan refugees - Wikipedia

en.m.wikipedia.org

Libs like to create crises to show how caring they are.

 

[ThatRobGuy]

Perhaps you aren't familiar with how large a sample is valid for a given degree of confidence.

That would only be applicable if the sampling areas tended to have measurable proportionality results, and there were at least some higher degree of similarities between the areas sampled.

If all jurisdictions had some degree of relative proportionality, and all of the same jurisdictions were participating at the same rates each year, then perhaps something could be inferred.

For instance if
If Township A has always reported 80%+ of their their car break-ins, and continues to report 80%+ of their crimes
If City B used to report 80%+ of their car break-ins, and when they did, it could be observed that for every 1 in Township A, there were 3 in City B. (establishing a high-confidence link in proportionality)

Even if City B stops reporting a high percentage of their crimes, there are certain inferences that could be made about B based on what we see happening in A using historical trends.



That doesn't exist for this scenario.
1) Crime rates in the burbs are somewhat disjointed from crime rates in the high population density cities
2) Crime data reporting in NY has been something of a scatterplot (One year precinct A reports 20%, the next year 5%...precinct B does 8% one year, 15% the next, etc...)


To use a medical comparison, it'd be like trying to make inferences about the impacts of higher dosages about "Medication XYZ"
If researchers reported 80% of their results for 18-29 year olds
Only reported 15% of their results for 61 year olds
Only 18% of their results for 62 year olds
...and had a 6 month backlog for reporting the results for 63-69 year olds

It'd be very difficult (with any degree of confidence) to take the 18-29 data and use that to make inferences about the impact on 60-69 year olds.
A) because we know there are differences in how well different medicines are "well-tolerated" by age group
B) not enough data has reported about the latter to try to establish a proportionality/trend link between the two.


@sfs is something of a stats guru, I would be interested in getting their take on the matter.



All of this part aside, with regards to why the public has the perception that there's more crime, what I mentioned in my previous post is still applicable. Despite murders and rapes dropping by 11%, those happen far more infrequently than assaults and larceny. So a 6% increase in assaults/larceny is going to be more noticeable to the populace than an 11% decrease in the aforementioned more serious crimes.

It'd be like if there were a 10% decrease in traffic fatalities, but a 10% increase in fender benders... The roads are "safer" in terms of fewer people dying, however, society going to observe an increase in non-fatal accidents since those happen to far more people.

 

[QvQ]

Hmmm... my point:
See the graph. The pandemic was a major cause of the rise, which BTW, was still much lower than it was at the start of the 1990s. To be fair, Trump isn't responsible for all of that. But if he hadn't bungled the pandemic response, it would probably have been lower.

It is interesting to see a comparison between the drop in violent crime in 2023 and the crime rate drop at the end of prohibition. (Violent crime increased during prohibition and dropped thereafter)
Drugs have become mostly legal in the past few years.
Those drugs, particularly marijuana were major economic crops in South America. A collapse of that huge industry could be fueling the current surge at the border.
The Cartels, and yes, there are American drug cartels comprised of American citizens in places like Chicago, are very reminiscent of the Mobs of the prohibition era.

"The number of violations of Prohibition laws and violent crimes against persons and property continued to increase throughout Prohibition. Figure 4 shows an undeniable relationship between Prohibition and an increase in the homicide rate. The homicide rate increased from 6 per 100,000 population in the pre-Prohibition period to nearly 10 per 100,000 in 1933. That rising trend was reversed by the repeal of Prohibition in 1933, and the rate continued to decline throughout the 1930s and early 1940s.[48]"

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www.cato.org