The military will get larger....the consequences???

[Joachim]

I am not going to mince words. Only the most optimistic person believes that we are going to pull out of this in any quick order of time. We have been hemmoraging an average of 600,000 jobs a month nationally since October. The class of 2008 (college, not high school, their problems are far worse) has had trouble getting work but at least some of them will be employed. The classes of 2009 and 2010 are in for a huge shock. The entry level jobs are all being trimmed in an effort to save money. For the high school graduate it gets even worse because they now compete for those jobs with the recently laid off and the college graduates.


I personally believe that as it becomes clear that we are not pulling out of this any time soon and as the desperation skyrockets you will see recruits flooding into the gates of the military. With a college degree you can become an entry level officer making $24,000, entry level enlisted men make about $14,000. These are not great salaries but in the military you have your housing provided for, you have access to cheaper goods through military stores and I may be wrong but I am under the impression that there are tax benefits as well. It is far more attractive to a college graduate than an enlisted person but the thing is the jobs for college graduates are drying up and if one thing can be said about the military, they do treat the officers differently than they treat the enlisted men and don't try and deny it because I have been told this by both enlisted men and officers. To this current generation that has been raised to basically believe in "entitlement", the discipline thing might not sit well with them, but the self respect that they could claim for themselves as a second lieutenant or an ensign vs. what they would have to do in a stereotypical hat and nametag job like Mc'Ds or Wendy's will draw many of them into the military, not to mention the fact that the military does train many of it's officers for professional type careers.


I personally believe that we are going to see the number of officer candidates from undergraduate institutions skyrocket in the next few years because anyone in college now should be able to finish. I believe this will be followed by a massive skyrocketing in enlisted men that have finished fresh out of high school who are in the new environment where college is not as readily available and that this will continue until the economy has stabilized enough so that military is no longer the best option.


The thing is however, when the economy rights itself, these incoming officers and enlistees will still have their military committments and for many of them their decision to go military will have been based out of self-interest rather than the interest for the country, in fact, there will be more than a few ambitious status seekers entering the officer corps, and so I was wondering what are the implications of this for U.S. foreign policy and U.S. military policy. Will this ultimately end up in a result where a permanently enlarged military is just a part of the U.S. economy and will the mindset of these "hardship soldiers" cause morale problems for the soldiers who are there because of their true desire to help the country, especially as they see some of these hardship soldiers advance in ranks, moreso true in the officer corps which I believe will just be flooded with recent college grads for the next 3-4 years, picking up in earnest from 2010 onward

 

[GodGunsAndGlory]

Actually the military is cutting people out and people who planned to retire like USMC4Life are going to be screwed.

 

[Joachim]

Actually the military is cutting people out and people who planned to retire like USMC4Life are going to be screwed.

I don't think they can though is the thing. I think the public demand is simply going to demand an increase, especially from the youths. Never count on any government agency to scale back in a time of unemployment, though I would be interested in seeing what you were referring to because this is the first I've heard of the military actually cutting personnel this decade.

 

[BobW188]

The public would have to pay for it. Interestingly, when we look back on the Great Depression we don't see the military growing that much. As late as 1940, General George Marshall had to spell out to Congress that the Army ranked 17th in manpower in the worldwide rankings.
Frankly, though, I would like to see it grow. We have the very "hollow army" we were told in the 1990s would never happen again. It's one thing to call out National Guard units on a one-time basis or "for the duration," but this current practice of rotating them in and out of active duty for three or more tours is derailing civilian careers and families.
Again going back to the Depression, most career soldiers and sailors had enlisted out of hardship and, far from being a negative influence, they served as the leaders and instructors for the mass of those who came in during the war years. They, and many who took commissions (a process today's youth may learn is not as simple as it sounds) out of self-interest, nonetheless got the job done when the time came. Two saw combat and later became President.

 

[godsbassist]

Public demand for jobs in the military sector is going to increase the size of the military force? Public demand for jobs has nothing to do with the size of the military. It will increase the caliber of enlistee and new officer, as well as raise the extremely poor entry standards for the Army, but will have no affect on numbers.

With regards to people feeling self entitled and wanting rank for the sake of rank: that dissapears the instant you are brought face to face with both ideas that A) you will die if you don't listen carefully, and b) others will die if you mess up. This realization occurs somewhere in the first 30 minutes of boot camp.

As far as people joining for the wrong reasons... I've been in for 5 years and have met very (VERY!) few people who joined to serve their country. The benefits of being in the military have always been extremely impressive and almost everybody I serve with joined either for an education or because they really had nowhere else to go. According to your theory (which is all it is) nothing will change with regards to enlistment reasons.

 

[godsbassist]

I don't think they can though is the thing. I think the public demand is simply going to demand an increase, especially from the youths. Never count on any government agency to scale back in a time of unemployment, though I would be interested in seeing what you were referring to because this is the first I've heard of the military actually cutting personnel this decade.

The military cut nearly 20% of their force under G. Bush Senior, another 18ish% under Clinton, and about half a percent under G.W. Bush, despite being at war.

The AF and Navy have become much smaller, while the Army and Marines have increased slightly since 9/11.

Here's the data for last year. Down .2% from Jan 1 to Dec 31, 2008.

http://siadapp.dmdc.osd.mil/personnel/MILITARY/ms2.pdf

 

[Autumnleaf]

The size of the military is independent of how many people who want to sign up.

Most people I know who were in the military with me did so for reasons other than patriotism.

 

[Schimpfy]

The military will not grow...simply because they aren't funded for it. Congress allots a certain amount of money every year to national defense and that includes the salaries of the soldiers, airmen, marines and seamen. There's a recruiting cap that would cut off the amount of applicants allowed to enter service. One GREAT thing about these hard times is that (as stated earlier) the pool of available bodies increases and with it intelligence. It's gonna make it a lot easier to weed out the idiots when you don't have to worry about turning them away because someone else will be right behind them.

 

[paul123]

I agree. My rate is almost getting cut by a quarter percent in 2010 and 2011. If I don't make rank soon, I won't for a long time. All the dinosours have thier points maxed out. To even complete, I have to be 5 more years to level the field, and then have more sea time on top of that. Then I have to award points that only the old men have.

I don't think they are cutting everywhere. But for those who will feel the civilian crunch on their rate (technology guys), we really feel the crunch.

Nobody is getting out and nobody is advancing in my rate. It is getting rediculous, but at least my new billet rocks. Detriot or Bust (Rock City).

 

[Jemila]

It needs to grow. It is seriously undermanned. The people are doing the job of 4 or more people because career fields have been undermanned by deployments, upgrade schools, people getting kicked out because their waist isn't the correct size. Sigh. It's pretty screwed up.

My husband has been in for 13 years, I was enlisted for 4. I know all about military life. We have spent most of that time in Japan.

 

[BernieEOD]

Since 9-11, the Navy has shed 40,000 bodies and the Air Force 50,000.
The Navy has to trim another 12,000 by October and another 20,000 by the end of 2010. The money is simply not there.

 

[akeng]

I think the waist line standard was a way of subly down sizing, I have a friend who is an AF SP and his waistline is dangerously close to being over even though he can tear up the rest of the PT test. He refers to it as the hitler youth look, but in reality its just a way to down size. He has just been saving money because he knows the end is near and making rank beyond E-5 is almost impossible so all he cares about now is saving so he is not homeless when he inevitably gets kicked out. You might see people attempting to join the military but alot will get turned away.

I believe in this economy you will see smarter people involved in organized crime, in much the same way russia is, give it a few years but when peoples options have run out for lagitimate employment you will see a spike in crime and im not talking about a few drug dealers that get busted im talking about crime ruling over law where the cops can no longer uphold the law so no one will be going to jail (maybe there waistline was to big to join the military but they can hack a system, or manfacutre arms, process drugs, etc). It is sad when you are forced into crime for a lack of a better option and have to either starve to death or go against your own morals. At least our unemployment rate is only 10% right now but the problem is unemployment rates do not account for under employment for instance a guy who was making 80K and lost his job and is now making 30K that guy is going to be subjected to unscrupulus activity to make up that difference. Only time will tell what will happen.

 

[ModCon]

Public demand for jobs in the military sector is going to increase the size of the military force? Public demand for jobs has nothing to do with the size of the military. It will increase the caliber of enlistee and new officer, as well as raise the extremely poor entry standards for the Army, but will have no affect on numbers.

With regards to people feeling self entitled and wanting rank for the sake of rank: that dissapears the instant you are brought face to face with both ideas that A) you will die if you don't listen carefully, and b) others will die if you mess up. This realization occurs somewhere in the first 30 minutes of boot camp.

As far as people joining for the wrong reasons... I've been in for 5 years and have met very (VERY!) few people who joined to serve their country. The benefits of being in the military have always been extremely impressive and almost everybody I serve with joined either for an education or because they really had nowhere else to go. According to your theory (which is all it is) nothing will change with regards to enlistment reasons.

Benefits were very attractive, training and serving our Country were the main reasons most of the people that graduated with me joined. Probably a cyclic reasoning process.

It needs to grow. It is seriously undermanned. The people are doing the job of 4 or more people because career fields have been undermanned by deployments, upgrade schools, people getting kicked out because their waist isn't the correct size. Sigh. It's pretty screwed up.

My husband has been in for 13 years, I was enlisted for 4. I know all about military life. We have spent most of that time in Japan.

We need more people to send to the war zones, to many tours to frequently, very stressful on families and more importantly, very stressful to those serving the tours. Meaning more likely to have mental and physical problems relating to prolonged severe stressers.

 

[akeng]

The only way to mitigate the problem with the army is to draft (and drafts are very expensive and will destroy the carrers of all involved), everyone wants to join the air force or the navy because of the living conditions and deployment lengths but the army is over stressed so only the people in the most desperate of situations want to join and they are usually not the most qualified. General human nature there has to be insentive for people to risk there lives (im not talking about nebulus incentives like serving your country) like the roman empire the army was paid extremely well because they reaped the benifits of the nations they conquored, soldiers in iraq did not get to put money in their pockets from the oil wealth in iraq so why fight? The iraqis proved they could not manage there own nation or there own natural resources so why should they get to keep them?

Benefits were very attractive, training and serving our Country were the main reasons most of the people that graduated with me joined. Probably a cyclic reasoning process.


We need more people to send to the war zones, to many tours to frequently, very stressful on families and more importantly, very stressful to those serving the tours. Meaning more likely to have mental and physical problems relating to prolonged severe stressers.

 

[Billnew]

As far as people joining for the wrong reasons... I've been in for 5 years and have met very (VERY!) few people who joined to serve their country. The benefits of being in the military have always been extremely impressive and almost everybody I serve with joined either for an education or because they really had nowhere else to go. According to your theory (which is all it is) nothing will change with regards to enlistment reasons.

Most people I knew, when I was in the military, joined to serve their country. The benefits were good, but most planned to join since Jr High.
Things change I guess.
Of course, Post Carter the military wasn't known for "benefits". Pay increased and military benefits continued to be increased while I was in.

Is this true for post 9-11 enlistees?
There was a surge to fight after 9-11.
Current military all know they can be sent to combat, and can be extended to serve thier whole term of enlistment, rather then inactive period.

I see no problem joining for any reasons, as long as they are aware what is expected.

 

[Crusader05]

Since 9-11, the Navy has shed 40,000 bodies and the Air Force 50,000.
The Navy has to trim another 12,000 by October and another 20,000 by the end of 2010. The money is simply not there.

The reason why the AF cut so many people was because they wanted to spend more on buying new airplanes. The Congress gives the AF a big block of cash and we can spend it pretty much as we choose, so the AF leadership (i.e. then CSAF Gen. Jumper) wanted to buy more aircraft and had the great idea of cutting thousands of people to be able to afford it. Thankfully we have stopped the cuts and the SECDEF is moving forward with plans for us to get new tankers, more UAVs etc.

 

[HumbleSiPilot77]

Guess what though, we are done away with those "felony" waivers, because we don't need anymore people than we can get, we are not in a recruiting crunch, our numbers are good, and this time we are getting decent people in. We are not getting bigger, we are getting better. People wise, without funds we can't have equipment and training mind you, that is one of the "change" package plans.

 

[jcook922]

I am not going to mince words. Only the most optimistic person believes that we are going to pull out of this in any quick order of time. We have been hemmoraging an average of 600,000 jobs a month nationally since October. The class of 2008 (college, not high school, their problems are far worse) has had trouble getting work but at least some of them will be employed. The classes of 2009 and 2010 are in for a huge shock. The entry level jobs are all being trimmed in an effort to save money. For the high school graduate it gets even worse because they now compete for those jobs with the recently laid off and the college graduates.


I personally believe that as it becomes clear that we are not pulling out of this any time soon and as the desperation skyrockets you will see recruits flooding into the gates of the military. With a college degree you can become an entry level officer making $24,000, entry level enlisted men make about $14,000. These are not great salaries but in the military you have your housing provided for, you have access to cheaper goods through military stores and I may be wrong but I am under the impression that there are tax benefits as well. It is far more attractive to a college graduate than an enlisted person but the thing is the jobs for college graduates are drying up and if one thing can be said about the military, they do treat the officers differently than they treat the enlisted men and don't try and deny it because I have been told this by both enlisted men and officers. To this current generation that has been raised to basically believe in "entitlement", the discipline thing might not sit well with them, but the self respect that they could claim for themselves as a second lieutenant or an ensign vs. what they would have to do in a stereotypical hat and nametag job like Mc'Ds or Wendy's will draw many of them into the military, not to mention the fact that the military does train many of it's officers for professional type careers.


I personally believe that we are going to see the number of officer candidates from undergraduate institutions skyrocket in the next few years because anyone in college now should be able to finish. I believe this will be followed by a massive skyrocketing in enlisted men that have finished fresh out of high school who are in the new environment where college is not as readily available and that this will continue until the economy has stabilized enough so that military is no longer the best option.


The thing is however, when the economy rights itself, these incoming officers and enlistees will still have their military committments and for many of them their decision to go military will have been based out of self-interest rather than the interest for the country, in fact, there will be more than a few ambitious status seekers entering the officer corps, and so I was wondering what are the implications of this for U.S. foreign policy and U.S. military policy. Will this ultimately end up in a result where a permanently enlarged military is just a part of the U.S. economy and will the mindset of these "hardship soldiers" cause morale problems for the soldiers who are there because of their true desire to help the country, especially as they see some of these hardship soldiers advance in ranks, moreso true in the officer corps which I believe will just be flooded with recent college grads for the next 3-4 years, picking up in earnest from 2010 onward

Truth is, the majority of folks who have joined the military in the last ten years haven't done it for their country, I sure didn't. I did it for the money, the discipline, the life experience, and the college benefits. I'm still in and plan to make this my career since I love it, possibly as a senior NCO god willing. With how I live aside from the tax benefits and use of the military exchange for cheap goods, I don't collect benefits other than having a job, but I make enough to easily get by as a bachelor.

Damn I love the service, unless something goes seriously pear-shaped in a few years, I don't see myself wanting to leave until retirement.