I use peer-reviewed data, you use peer-reviewed data. My data is just better than yours, as it has been through a trial by fire, and has been vindicated by the national academy of science.
What I linked is merely discussion which casts yet more doubts on your data.
I see, your data is better because you use it. I see now. Gee, I guess I lose.
Let's look at the data worldwide for the Little Ice Age, from about 1500-1750 or so. The exact dates vary with the author.
This is important. I am merely showing that the world was very cold at the time of the little ice age. By comparison, we are warm today. So don't twist this to try to say that I am ignoring warming. I am not.
Let's start with Fagan's book
The colder conditions of the Little Ice Age were not confined to Europe and North America. The world was on average one or two degrees Celsius cooler than it is today (during the late Ice Age it was six-to-nine degrees cooler). Precisely dated stalagmites from Cold Air Cave as far away as northern South Africa provide evidence of cooler temperatures during the Little Ice Age. Glaciers advanced, tree lines fell, and seas cooled. Brian Fagan,
Floods, Famines, and Emperors: El Niño and the Fate of Civilizations (Basic Books, 1999)., Chapter 10 from
Fagan 1999 chapter on LIA
**
Little ice age Maunder minimum
Until the onset of the Little Ice Age, the Icelanders also grew a hardy strain of barley in the north, south, and southeast of their homeland. However, the farmers had abandoned barley cultivation in the north by the end of the twelfth century. By the fifteenth century, no one grew cereal crops. Despite occasional experiments, barley did not return for eight centuries. Brian Fagan,
Floods, Famines, and Emperors: El Niño and the Fate of Civilizations (Basic Books, 1999)., Chapter 10 from
Fagan 1999 chapter on LIA
**
Little ice age Maunder minimum
The cold centuries ended in the 1850s, as the Industrial Revolution was at its height. The world entered a new era of warmer temperatures and less extreme climatic swings, apparently triggered by entirely natural causes. (Some experts do wonder whether the higher levels of carbon dioxide released into the atmosphere by the growing forces of the Industrial Revolution contributed to the warm-up.) The warming has continued to this day, interrupted by occasional colder episodes. The three severe winters of 1939-1942 frustrated Adolf Hitler in France and Russia. Between 1940 and 1975, the world's climate cooled very slightly despite increased carbon dioxide levels, prompting talk of an imminent Ice Age. Since the 1970s the warming has continued. Brian Fagan,
Floods, Famines, and Emperors: El Niño and the Fate of Civilizations (Basic Books, 1999)., Chapter 10 from
Fagan 1999 chapter on LIA
**
Climatologists report that 1997 was the warmest year in the twentieth century, with 1998 promising to be as warm if not warmer. How much of this warmth is due to the burning of fossil fuels and other human activities is a matter of debate. Perhaps another Little Ice Age is less likely now than it would have been had not the burning of fossil fuels increased so dramatically during the twentieth century. But we would be foolish to assume that another Little Ice Age is an impossibility.
Brian Fagan,
Floods, Famines, and Emperors: El Niño and the Fate of Civilizations (Basic Books, 1999)., Chapter 10 from
Fagan 1999 chapter on LIA
**
The following section on scapegoating is from Fagan's The Little Ice Age (Basic Books, 2000):
"As climatic conditions deteriorated, a lethal mix of misfortunes descended on a growing European population. Crops failed and cattle perished by diseases caused by abnormal weather. Famine followed famine bringing epidemics in their train, bread riots and general disorder brought fear and distrust. Witchcraft accusations soared, as people accused their neighbors of fabricating bad weather
. Sixty-three women were burned to death as witches in the small town of Wisensteig in Germany in 1563 at a time of intense debate over the authority of God over the weather. Witch panics erupted periodically after the 1560s. Between 1580 and 1620, more than 1,000 people were burned to death for witchcraft in the Bern region alone. Witchcraft accusations reached a height in England and France in the severe weather years of 1587 and 1588. Almost invariably, a frenzy of prosecutions coincided with the coldest and most difficult years of the Little Ice Age, when people demanded the eradication of the witches they held responsible for their misfortunes. As scientists began to seek natural explanations for climatic phenomena, witchcraft receded slowly into the background."
Fagan 1999 chapter on LIA
Note the impact of the sun on the 17th century little ice age--from a peer reviewed journal.
"The present model serves purely to model the secular (long term) trend in the solar constant. The model suggests a change of approx. 0.5 W/sq m for the differences between the late twentieth century solar constant and the 17th century solar constant. This supports Eddy's view that this difference could give rise to the glacial increase during the little ice age of the 17th century. Important for present day climate studies, is that it shows the recent peak activity (peaking in 1958) is associated with an atypically high value of the solar constant, with respect to the past few hundred years." Kenneth H. Schatten, and Jerome A. Orosz, "A solar Constant Mode for Sun-Climate Studies: 1600-2000 AD." Solar Physics, Aug 1990, 175-180 A solar constant model for sun-climate studies: 1600-2000AD
The first Little Ice Age advance in this area began more than 500 years ago and peaked in the early 17th century. An earlier Neoglacial advance began about 2800-3000 cal yr ago and may have lasted for hundreds of years. There is also evidence for an intervening advance of even smaller magnitude around 1200-1300 cal yr ago. The advances are broadly synchronous with those in other parts of western North America, indicating that they were caused by regional, possibly global, changes in climate. Plant communities within the study area did not change dramatically during the late Holocene. The ranges of some plants, however, likely retracted or extended near treeline in response to changes in mean temperatures of perhaps 1-2 degrees C, as well as changes in summer snow cover. The greatest changes in vegetation occurred within and just beyond the forefields of Berendon, Frank Mackie, and other nearby glaciers. The largest climate shifts of the last 3000 years took place during the late Little Ice Age and the last century. Climate warmed about 1-2 degrees C during the 20th century, accompanied by a rise in treeline, an increase in coniferous tree cover in the subalpine zone, and an increase in the temperature and biological productivity of ponds. These trends are likely to continue if climate, as expected, continues to warm. "John J. Clague, Barbara Wohlfarth, Jeremy Ayotte, M. Eriksson, Ian Hutchinson, Rolf W. Mathewes, Ian R. Walker, and Lauren Walker "Late Holocene environmental change at treeline in the northern Coast Mountains, British Columbia, Canada" Quaternary Science Reviews (December 2004), 23(23-24):2413-2431
The coldest conditions of the `Little Ice Age' were experienced from ~AD 1700 to the mid-nineteenth century, when extensive ice cover on the lake led to widespread anoxic conditions in the deepest parts of the lake basin. An overall decline in median grain size over the last 1000 years indicates a reduction in the energy available to transport sediment to the lake. Many of these features of the record are also observed in other palaeoclimatic records from the North American Arctic. The very recent appearance of the diatom Campylodiscus, which was not observed throughout the record of the last millennium, suggests that a new threshold in the ontogenetic development of the lake has now been passed."M. R. Besonen, W. Patridge, R. S. Bradley, P. Francus, J. S. Stoner, and M. B. Abbott A record of climate over the last millennium based on varved lake sediments from the Canadian High Arctic (in Special issue in honour of Professor Frank Oldfield)
The Holocene (February 2008), 18(1):169-180
Investigating the Little Ice Age in the Southern Alps of New Zealand (in , Anonymous,)
Jessica L. Black
Geological Society of America (GSA), United States, Boulder, CO
The Little Ice Age (LIA) was a late Holocene interval of climate cooling, registered in the North Atlantic region by expansion of alpine glaciers and sea ice. Here the LIA includes an early phase from around AD 1280 to 1390 and a main phase from around AD 1556 to 1860, followed by warming and ice retreat. It has recently been demonstrated from records of North Atlantic ice-rafted debris that the LIA is the latest cooling episode in a pervasive 1500 yr cycle of the climate system that may lie at the heart of abrupt climate change. This raises the question of whether the LIA climate signal is globally synchronous (implying atmospheric transfer of the climate signal) or out of phase between the polar hemispheres (implying ocean transfer of the climate signal by a bipolar seesaw of thermohaline circulation). New Zealand is ideally situated to address the problem as it is located on the other side of the planet. Glaciers in the Southern Alps of New Zealand respond to climate change on a decade timescale. The moraines deposited by these glacier oscillations are therefore ideal for determining the character of the LIA signal in the Southern Hemisphere. A detailed chronology of the Hooker and Mueller Holocene moraine systems was constructed using geomorphologic maps, historical records, and the FALL lichenometry technique. This study found that the Holocene moraines fronting the Mueller and Hooker Glaciers were deposited predominantly during the main phase of the LIA."
Jessica L. Black, "Investigating the Little Ice Age in the Southern Alps of New Zealand (in Geological Society of America, Northeastern Section, 36th annual meeting, Anonymous,) Abstracts with Programs - Geological Society of America (March 2001), 33(1):84
I would note that most of the post 5000 year history of glaciers in Switzerland were hovering around levels seen TODAY. the retreat of the Alpine glaciers today is because they are retreating from their expansion in the Little Ice Age.
"After the Younger Dryas, glaciers receded to a smaller extent and prolonged recessions occurred repeatedly, culminating around 7 cal. kyr BP. After a transition around 6 cal. kyr BP weak fluctuations around the present level dominated. After 3.6 cal. kyr BP less frequent recessions interrupted the trend to advanced glaciers peaking with the prominent Little Ice Age. This trend is in line with a continuous decrease of summer insolation during the Holocene." Ulrich E. Joerin, Thomas F. Stocker, and Christian Schluechter "Multicentury glacier fluctuations in the Swiss Alps during the Holocene" The Holocene (July 2006), 16(5):697-704
in Siberia 1000 years ago, the trees grew above the current treeline--meaning that it was WARMER then than now--contrary to the hysteriacs who think that these times and this warming is unprecedented. It isn't. Note the warmth before the Little Ice Age.
"In Western Siberia, advances in the tree lines during the warming weather of the first half of the 20th century were "part of a long-term reforestation of tundra environments." Swiss scientists note that "stumps and logs of Larix sibirica can be preserved for hundreds of years," and that "above the ree line in the Polar Urals such relict material from large, upright trees were sampled and dated, confirming the existence, around A.D. 1000, of a forest tree line 30 meters above the late 20th century limit." They also note that "this previous forest limit receded around 1350, perhaps caused by a general cooling trend." Thus, the Siberian tree lines testify to the Medieval Warming and the
Little Ice Age far from Europe." Fred Singer and Dennis T. Avery, " The hysical Evidence of Earths Unstoppable 1,500-Year Climate Cycle," NCPA Policy Report No. 279 September 2005, p. 13-14
ISBN #1-56808-149-9 http://www.ncpa.org/pdfs/st279.pdf
What is melting is the Little Ice Age permafrost. It wasn't there before the Little Ice Age 500 years ago, but everyone is panicked.
"Thawing of Little Ice Age permafrost is ongoing at many locations. There are some indications that Late Holocene permafrost has begun to thaw at some undisturbed locations in northeastern Europe and in northwest Siberia. Projections of future changes in permafrost suggest that by the end of the 21st century. Late Holocene permafrost in Russia may be actively thawing at all locations and some Late Pleistocene permafrost could start to thaw as well. "Vladimir E. Romanovksy, A. L. Kholodov, S. S. Marchenko, Naum G. Oberman, D. S. Drozdov, G. V. Malkova, N. G. Moskalenko, Alexander A. Vasiliev, D. O. Sergeev, and M. N. Zheleznyak Thermal state and fate of permafrost in Russia; first results of IPY (in Ninth international conference on Permafrost) International Conference on Permafrost (ICOP) Proceedings (2008), 9 1511-1518
Notice that this article says that we have seen 2-4 deg warming SINCE the Little Ice Age.
"More recently, temperature profiles from deep boreholes show an inflection associated with near-surface warming of 2 degrees to 4 degrees C since the Little Ice Age. Simultaneously, the southern limit of permafrost has moved northwards. " C. R. Burn Field Investigations of permafrost and climatic change in Northwest North America (in )
Collection Nordicana (1998), 57 107-120
Since we have only warmed 1.1 deg C in the last 100 years, that means that the warming SINCE the LITTLE ICE AGE has been around .9 to 2.9 deg C meaning that on average, the estimate is that there is more warming before this last century than during it.
That is enough for tonight.
Maybe if you stayed off the main roads, it would be a plus. Also, in many cities, housing tends to be more expensive near the core, where one could commute by bike. Again, to have a real impact, we need a level playing field. Driving a bile around a rice patty would only do so much good.
