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The Holocene Deniers

thaumaturgy

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I know I said I was going to sit this one out, but I am so happy that Spaceman_Spiff posted the video that I tracked down the NOAA article in which they compared the 70 "good" or "best" sites from Anthony Watts' surfacestations.org survey to the overall 1221 stations from the U.S. network.

Here's the LINK

Note the graph on page 3 of the pdf. It shows the overlaid graphs. I am quite impressed.

One analysis was for the full USHCN version 2 data set. The other used only USHCN version 2 data from the 70 stations that surfacestations.org classified as good or best. We would expect some differences simply due to the different area covered: the 70 stations only covered 43% of the country with no stations in, for example, New Mexico, Kansas, Nebraska, Iowa, Illinois, Ohio, West Virginia, Kentucky, Tennessee or North Carolina. Yet the two time series, shown below as both annual data and smooth data, are remarkably similar. Clearly there is no indication from this analysis that poor station exposure has imparted a bias in the U.S. temperature trends.(ibid)


I think this effectively deals with this critique.

However it should also be stressed that the USHCN climate station set is not the only set of data being used across the earth.

In addition physical recording of temperatures are not the only metric by which climatologists track global climate change.


or​


USAToday said:
A growing number of meteorologists and horticulturists say that because of the warming climate, the 1990 map doesn't reflect a trend that home gardeners have noticed for more than a decade: a gradual shift northward of growing zones for many plants.
The map doesn't show, for example, that the Southern magnolia, once limited largely to growing zones ranging from Florida to Virginia, now can thrive as far north as Pennsylvania. Or that kiwis, long hardy only as far north as Oklahoma, now might give fruit in St. Louis.​



Last I checked plants don't have political agendas, fear-based agendas or lobby for funding from governmental research organizations.

Nor do they rely on any poorly sited USHCN surface stations.

 
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Baggins

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Well you think what you want, Baggins, I am not the guy who bragadociously claimed to have found oil when you have never told anyone where to drill at all, not once. You even admitted it.

Finding oil does not entail telling people where to drill for it it entails finding oil. Which I have done plenty of times
 
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Thistlethorn

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I really don't give a rats rear end what you call on me. And I stand by my statement. By ignoring what happened, they deny its existence, its events. Tell me this--something I have asked before. Why should I worry about sea level rise or melting glaciers if we saw all this before 5000 years ago. What in the heck is the big deal?

1. Because this time it is faster than ever before, giving life no time to adapt.
2. Because PEOPLE ARE LIVING THERE NOW! You don't care about those people, right? Is it because it isn't you? It isn't your family that get everything washed away? It's a very cynical and callous view you hold. You keep saying that they'll just move. My question is: where? If the people of Bangladesh could move so easily, why haven't they already? Why do they remain in one of the most flood- and disease-infested countries in the world? Why do people die there every year from floods? But that doesn't matter, right? As long as it isn't you.

Now it is my turn to accuse you of changing goal posts. You now acknowledge that the climate is not in a true equilibrium. Over the long haul the climate is a very chaotic thing.

Not as chaotic as you try to make it out to be. It's normally fairly cyclical, in that we get an ice-age, followed by a warmer period.

Pshah to that silly claim that we are seeing an unnaturally fast climate change. In my last post to you I posted a picture of the last 2000 years of temperature history. Go look at that (on page 5 of this thread). We saw very rapid rises in temperature around 500 AD and 800 AD. There is not a lot of difference, other than belief, in the rise this century.

Said graph appears to have disappeared, or at least am I unable to find it. I would very much like to see this graph, as it seems that you and I when looking at graphs see two very different images. For example, I cannot get you to admit that when you look at a graph of the heating trend these past 500 years, you see a remarkable jump at the time of the industrial revolution. You keep insisting that this heating trend began at the year 1600, something I have yet to see any evidence of. Could you please repost the graph that shows that too?

Why do you keep avoiding very logical connections between your view and other views? You act as if animals can't adapt. You act as if humans can't adapt and that all those Bangladeshi's are going to stay put while the seas rise and drown them. What utter crap.

Animals can't adapt if the changes are too rapid. That is why we get extinction events. As for the Bangladeshi's, I've already talked about them. If you're really naive enough to say "well, why don't they run away from the water", I fear we have little to discuss.

Not so. You are thinking of the second picture you referenced. I was speaking of the Met temperature picture. That picture, which I posted in my previous reply to you is definitly NOT a correlation. It is a temperature anomaly graph.

And you haven't answered my question. Who or what is responsible for the warming from 1650 to 1850? It can't be due to man. What DATA convinces you that we humans suddenly become responsible at 1855 for all future warming?

I have answered your question. Whatever heating occurred then was natural, most likely. You need to provide evidence for your claim that the heating trend between 1650 to 1850 was as big as the one between 1850 and now, though.

Sorry, but one of the rules in science is that correlation doesn't mean causation. You seem to think that the industrial revolution, which began 100 years after the warming started is the cause of the warming from 1650 to 1750. That would be ridiculous. Apparently it is rocket science for you.

Again, provide evidence for this heating trend. The graphs I've seen show a distinct jump in temperature rise after the industrial revolution.

Secondly, the output of CO2 from the first 100 years of the industrial revolution was really tiny compared to what we do today, yet the warming was every bit as big as today. Thus, I must conclude that you think very flexibly about causation.

Again, this is not what I've seen at all. There is a distinct jump after the industrial revolution, but the temperature rise gets ever bigger as we approach modern times, only to take an uncomfortable vertical appearance these last few years.

Correlation isn't proof of causation. Every freshman physicist knows that. And they also know that cherry picking is bad science. But hats off to you for admitting it.

Show me the graph, please.

What a risible statement. What is someone supposed to do, submit a paper saying, I lied, and then have a reviewer go, yep? What crazy logic you try to use. This is not very logical.

Or am I supposed to find a peer reviewed paper showing that the MET cherry picked? All I have to do is show that they ignored the previous 200 years, which I did. I don't need peer review to show that the data doesn't support the implication of their ridiculously cropped data.

What are you talking about? I am asking you to provide evidence for your claim that the rise in temperature was as great between 1650-1850 as it was between 1850 and now. This goes contrary to all data I've seen, so I don't believe it. I'm going to call you a liar on this until you provide the data to support it.

Yes, I saw the graph and found it utterly unconvincing. Why do you think it is convincing?

Well, it is from an esteemed scientific community for one. It seems to support the data I've seen before, and it completely demolishes your sun-spot argument. Three reasons to trust the data.

So we are to believe that you have supernatural knowledge that the current warming is really due to man and that you can look at a chart of temperature and like Karnak the Great, intuit what is from man and what is from nature? What hubris. Please tell me HOW you can PROVE that the current warming isn't due to nature in large part?

Didn't you say your were a scientist? Scientists don't PROVE things, unless they are mathematicians. Scientists deal in evidence. The evidence for the current warming being in large part man-made are plentiful. For one, we have the correlation of green-house gas emissions with the rise in temperature. We know these gases SHOULD cause a green-house effect. We find by observation that they do so. We know that natural sources of green-house gases are very few compared to human emission. It's a fairly simple puzzle.

Yes, this shows your utter illogic. You really should take a logic course. One can't determine truth based upon what one does for a living. Data alone tells us what is true, not what one does. I could turn this around and say gee, those Academics are all infavor of global warming because they get lots of project money because of it. So, why can't I do that?

At the end of the day it is data not what one does that determines truth, or do you illogically and erroneously think that I have to lie because of what I do? I own my own company. I get no more money if I go along with global warming than if I object to it. It is utterly irrelevant to my income. But it is HIGHLY relevant to the income of the climatologists. And you know, I will make the same money if the world slaps a carbon tax on or doesn't. I don't care financially--but the climatologists are going to have to find a new scare tactic if the data shows that global warming is wrong.

You should take a course in critical thinking. You are economically dependent on our continued extraction of fossil-fuels. You don't have a doctorate. The climatologists I listen to have no economical motives for lying. The climatologists I listen to have shown their results and the method for which they got the results. It checks out. The climatologists I listen to have a higher education than you. Pretty logical if you ask me.

The article that my picture came from WAS peer reviewed. Indeed, almost every thing I have posted is from peer reviewed journals. So stop with that childish irrelevant peer review claim. I have mountains of peer reviewed data saying that we have nothing to fear from global warming--assuming the earth is warming rather than merely engaging in climate change and actually cooling.

You can start by presenting peer-reviewed evidence for your claim that the warming trend between 1650-1850 was as big as the warming trend between 1850 and now.

Lying requires two things. That one knows the truth and then intentionally disregards it. Prove those two things about me. I dare you.

No. I'm going to accuse you of it instead. I am fairly certain that you know that you're talking boloney. If it should turn out that you're just dumb, I will apologize.

My asserstions were all backed up by peer reviewed quotations and graphs. You haven't done much of either.

No. Your assertions weren't supported by the peer-reviewed quotations and graphs you presented. Have you forgotten again what your assertions were? Here they are: Global warming acknowledgers deny the Holocene. Global warming isn't man-made. Global warming is nothing to worry about. These assertions have not been supported by your sources.

No. But I don't think the effect is as great as what you do. See, you are trying to put me into a box you think I fit in. I don't fit in your preconceived box.

What do you think is going to happen? Do you think the climate will change at all? Do you think everything will be hunky-dory?

No. How much is the question. I know that the weather services are not removing the urban heat island effect as they ought to, so the thermometer record is flawed. Highly flawed. You haven't ever answered if you think it is a good thing to put a thermometor on cement on a rooftop or over an airconditioner. Will you ever answer that?

I have answered that. My answer is: It doesn't matter in the big picture. Taking ONLY the stations Watt's thought was fine shows almost exactly the same over-all trend as taking all stations, including the "bad" ones. You're answer to this was that they must have manipulated the data. That's a lazy way out when the data don't support your conclusions.

No I think I posted a picture showing the rise. Can't you even look at the pictures I posted? I posted one showing the past 2000 years of thermal history. sheesh. Pay attention.

No you didn't. At least, I can't see it.

Yes, because unlike you and your egotistical friends who think they have the power to control Nature, I don't think humanity has either the wisdom nor the power to stop what nature is doing. You are King Canute who will stop the tides and maybe continental drift to boot. While you are at it walk on water for us.

That's cute. You don't think man has anything to do with climate-change. Do you also deny other aspects of human activity being detrimental to our biosphere? Like deforestation, pollution, over-fishing, etc? Surely you would equate halting these activities to King Canute as well?

Edited to add. We are going to use of all the coal and oil and natural gas by the end of this century. We can't do too much more damage (assuming that we are doing any) with CO2. Within 5 years you will see the world's oil production start an inexorible decline. So, why should we do anything anyway. Natural limits to oil supplies will stop us in a few years anyway.

I really have a problem with this attitude. It is best explained in an anecdote: The waiting room at a maternity-ward. It is packed with new mothers and soon-to-be mothers. One of them is chain-smoking, and has been for the last two hours. When asked to stop, she says: "I just have 10 more cigarettes left. When those are out, I'll stop".
 
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Thistlethorn

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Your common sense really doesn't weigh in with the prophesies of the bible, sorry. I hardly call scaring kids common sense. Those that like to scare others I suspect, usually have a motive, and that usually is power.

You didn't understand what I meant, did you? No sweat, I'll explain it to you. People live in areas that are below the sea-level. In fact, most of the people on the earth lives in coastal or near-coastal areas that would be under water should the earth's ice caps melt. It doesn't take a prophet to see what's about to happen.

If is a big word. What if man started to use the water in the oceans as an almost unlimited source of power, from the hydrogen, if they found a way to do it? Maybe the levels would go down, and we may even have drinking water galore for the planet as a result. Predicting is really not as easy as you seem to think, unless you had real access to knowledge of events in the future. I seem to recall some people teaching me that man should starve to death, because of increased population some years back. Looks like they were wrong.

You don't really know much about science, do you? You realize that our biosphere is a closed system, right? Water wouldn't disappear. Predicting isn't easy, but science is very good at it.

About starvation, you can be glad you're living were you are. A large amount of people ARE starving because there isn't enough food for everyone.

They have access to part of the facts. It seems to me and some others, that misusing that part of the truth, by fear mongering, is tantamount to lying.

It isn't. It's warning people. It's blowing the whistle.

Caring for people in your dreams, however, is not the definition of real kindness. How about caring for those you are trying to scare to death right now? I never said I have no responsibility for earth. I have some. God has some. Others have some. The thing that I bellieve is more dangerous to man and the planet, is sin. If man wasn't fallen, and depraved, we wouldn't be in this mess.

Ok, I get it. You believe in the End Times. It doesn't matter what we do to the earth now, because you count on being "raptured" before anything bad happens. Well, I'm glad you're not in charge.

Ok, thanks for admitting that. I have a questionn for you. Be honest. Would you benefit financially in any way if the funding floodgates for greenies was opened up???

Nope.

With world peace, and a twist of lemon, and an end to poverty, perhaps? It seems to me that greed of man helps fuel the industry, and world commerce, and pollution. I am not sure that government handshakes, and Greenie benefitting new taxes would help me much.

Are you saying cleaning up the environment is an impossible task, so we shouldn't even try? We HAVE treaties. Some nations are reluctant to sign said treaties because they are greedy.

Ok, so forget the aids, and starvation, and need for water, and medicines, and debt relief, and etc...just help em go green. Got it.

If we help them go green, there's no reason we couldn't help them in other aspects as well. Why do you see this as a "one or the other" situation?

So salvation by the climate forcasters, and wonderful honest politicians. Got ya. Can you hear yourself here??

Yes. Can you hear yourself?
 
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dad

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You didn't understand what I meant, did you? No sweat, I'll explain it to you. People live in areas that are below the sea-level. In fact, most of the people on the earth lives in coastal or near-coastal areas that would be under water should the earth's ice caps melt. It doesn't take a prophet to see what's about to happen.

people live in earthquake zones too, and river flood plains, etc. Does that mean they're all going to die? It is prophesy to take only the things you can see, and superimpose them on the future of man. That doesn't take God into account. In the end, that is what it is all about. Just as some people want to spend billions or trillions getting up some space defense, in case an asteroid comes near earth, to kill all life. This they do while people suffer here, and hunger, and thirst, etc.

If it means 'givin to people with minds that hate, all I can tell you is whether you have to wait' You know, it's gonna be alright.



You don't really know much about science, do you? You realize that our biosphere is a closed system, right? Water wouldn't disappear. Predicting isn't easy, but science is very good at it.
I think you are referring to the what if example I raised. That wasn't science. Nor meant to be. Just as genetical crop engineering, and etc wasn't science in the middle of the last century, when the fear mongering took place on population, and mass starvation.

I was raising a future what if..what if science found a way to separate the hydrogen from the other parts of water? What if they found a way to use it for power cheaply? I never suggested it was happening, or that anyone knew how at the moment. Just as I am not drowning from your future sea level rises at the moment. Point is, you don't know it all.

About starvation, you can be glad you're living were you are. A large amount of people ARE starving because there isn't enough food for everyone.
Really? Prove it? I thought it was more a question of greed, and distribution, and a few other sin related things. Maybe some eco nuts would like to use all the corn on earth for fuel? After all, man doesn't seem to be their favorite species here! Except the men they see in the mirror, of course.



It isn't. It's warning people. It's blowing the whistle.
Blowing the whistle on things you fear will happen in the unknown future. Tweet, tweet, fund us more..tweet tweet, buy into the new religion...tweet tweet, you are a waste of good air, when you breathe..' :) They blow their own horn, and make a noxious toot.


Ok, I get it. You believe in the End Times. It doesn't matter what we do to the earth now, because you count on being "raptured" before anything bad happens. Well, I'm glad you're not in charge.
I am happy not to be in charge yet as well. One thing you can be certain of, when God does take control directly, man will not be stinking up the place any more.

I am all for taking care of the earth. You are wrong. But I will not pretend that cars are not needed as it is set up at the moment, generally. Do you drive?


OK.



Are you saying cleaning up the environment is an impossible task, so we shouldn't even try? We HAVE treaties. Some nations are reluctant to sign said treaties because they are greedy.
How we try is what matters. I might suggest getting rid of the WOMD. No matter how much you sweep the floor, the threat is over men that the whole hose will get blown up.

The real pollutant is sin. Man can't get rid of that. It makes some stink up the earth to get more money, or dump toxins in the ocean, or steal all the fish, or horde and waste food, etc.


If we help them go green, there's no reason we couldn't help them in other aspects as well. Why do you see this as a "one or the other" situation?
So your priority is green missionary work, rather than helping them first. How about at least a little soup kitchen, where, if they listen to you insult them, and preach green religion, they get a bowl of soup?



Yes. Can you hear yourself?
Yes, I heard myself, NOT echoing your sentiments that politicans and eather men can save us. I like what I didn't hear.
 
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Thistlethorn

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people live in earthquake zones too, and river flood plains, etc. Does that mean they're all going to die? It is prophesy to take only the things you can see, and superimpose them on the future of man. That doesn't take God into account. In the end, that is what it is all about. Just as some people want to spend billions or trillions getting up some space defense, in case an asteroid comes near earth, to kill all life. This they do while people suffer here, and hunger, and thirst, etc.

Straw man. I never said they were all going to die. I said that it's probably that some will die, and most will go homeless. It's a pretty easy equation. Let me walk you through it:
1. The earth warms up.
2. The ice-caps melt, draining all water into the oceans.
3. The oceans rise.
4. Coastal areas all around the world are flooded.
5. People living in those areas (most of the world's population) become homeless. Billions of refugees. Difficult to distribute food and medicine. Massive catastrophe.

Do you envisage another scenario?

I think you are referring to the what if example I raised. That wasn't science. Nor meant to be. Just as genetical crop engineering, and etc wasn't science in the middle of the last century, when the fear mongering took place on population, and mass starvation.

I was raising a future what if..what if science found a way to separate the hydrogen from the other parts of water? What if they found a way to use it for power cheaply? I never suggested it was happening, or that anyone knew how at the moment. Just as I am not drowning from your future sea level rises at the moment. Point is, you don't know it all.

Scientists CAN separate Hydrogen from Oxygen (the other component of water). What you tried to do with your little example, though, is make a claim that us doing so would lower the amount of water on the planet. That wouldn't happen, because we live in a closed system biosphere.

Really? Prove it? I thought it was more a question of greed, and distribution, and a few other sin related things. Maybe some eco nuts would like to use all the corn on earth for fuel? After all, man doesn't seem to be their favorite species here! Except the men they see in the mirror, of course.

Distribution is a major factor, yes, but that ties neatly in with the "not enough food for everyone" argument. We can't distribute food sufficiently well over the entire world. Thus, it leads to a scenario were there's not enough food for everyone.

I have NO idea how you can tie distribution problems to "sin", though.

Blowing the whistle on things you fear will happen in the unknown future. Tweet, tweet, fund us more..tweet tweet, buy into the new religion...tweet tweet, you are a waste of good air, when you breathe..They blow their own horn, and make a noxious toot.

You don't really care much for scientists, do you? Your hate is showing here.

I am happy not to be in charge yet as well. One thing you can be certain of, when God does take control directly, man will not be stinking up the place any more.

Is alright. Won't happen.

I am all for taking care of the earth. You are wrong. But I will not pretend that cars are not needed as it is set up at the moment, generally. Do you drive?

Have I said cars aren't needed? This is straw man number 2 in your reply to me. Cars are needed, but fossil fuel is not necessarily needed to propel cars. Furthermore, there is a lot of other sources of green-house gases as well.

How we try is what matters. I might suggest getting rid of the WOMD. No matter how much you sweep the floor, the threat is over men that the whole hose will get blown up.

A fine idea. Let's start with your country (I assume it's the USA?) which has the biggest stockpile of WMDs in the world. While we're dealing with the WMDs, is it ok with you if we deal with global warming as well? Why the "one-or-the-other" attitude?

The real pollutant is sin.

No, that's a religious concept. Not a pollutant.

So your priority is green missionary work, rather than helping them first. How about at least a little soup kitchen, where, if they listen to you insult them, and preach green religion, they get a bowl of soup?

Didn't you read my post? I said that we can do two things at the same time. Again with the "one-or-the-other" attitude. It's a false dichotomy.

Yes, I heard myself, NOT echoing your sentiments that politicans and eather men can save us. I like what I didn't hear.

So, according to you we are to sit on our hands and whistle until God bails us out?
 
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grmorton

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How do you explain the fact that when data is correlated from the stations deemed "good" by Watt's people with all other stations, they show no discrepancy?

Edit: Sorry, found the answer. Of course it's a cover up by "evil scientists". A "sleight of hand" as you put it. :D


No it is a failing of LAZY scientists who don't care if their dataset is good.

I pointed out the existence of the Homogeneity filter which actually changes the trend of the raw data from cooling to heating. It is published in a peer-reviewed journal,
THOMAS C. PETERSON, "EXAMINATION OF POTENTIAL
BIASES IN AIR TEMPERATURECAUSED BY POOR STATION
LOCATIONS," American Meteorological Society, Aug, 2006, p. 1078 fig 2

You go look it up. If one changes the trends of stations then one is simply making it all up
 
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grmorton

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Finding oil does not entail telling people where to drill for it it entails finding oil. Which I have done plenty of times


What an utter laugh. You must be finding oil beneath your car, for that is the only way one can find oil without telling someone where to drill. The only way to find oil is to drill for it. If no one tells someone where to drill, no wells are drilled.

You have made a variety of claims that hurt your credibility. You claimed you had found billions of barrels of oil, when in fact you have merely ridden a seismic boat QCing the data which is given to people who tell people to drill. What you do is essential for the oil business, but it isn't finding oil. Lots of seismic is acquired where no wells are drilled. Baggins, inflating one's credentials is not a very good idea, especially in front of someone else who is in the business.

Secondly, you claimed that interpretation is mostly computer modeling now. I do interpretation for a living and do it every day. I did it today--it consists of making maps and it isn't computer modeling. It is a time intensive work which consists of clicking the mouse on the seismic line displayed along a given horizon. After one does this for hundreds of thousands of linear miles of data, one then combines the data into a map which is gridded from the hand picked data. What you said, shows that you have never been inside a modern interpretation office.

Thirdly, you said that our oil supplies will be greater in 10 years than they are now. That shows that you don't pay attention to anything even in your industry. Only 2 barrels of oil are now discovered each year for every 10 we burn. It doesn't take a mathematical genius to realize that this can't last forever. I would suggest that you go look at www.theoildrum.com and consider the information there. If what you said about supplies being greater in the world in 10 years than they are now, why doesn't that apply to the UK where today they are producing about 55% of what they produced when I moved to the UK in 2000. for those who want to see why oil will not be more plentiful in the future, see http://www.ibiblio.org/tcrp/doc/art/discgap.jpg The black curve is production and it is much greater than discoveries. When the area beneath the production curve equals the area in the discovery columns, we are out of oil.


If all of this are examples of how you deal with facts, I will triple check anything you say about global warming. How can I ever trust what you say when you have already claimed things that are not strictly speaking true.

And I am the one who you said was the prevaracator.
 
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grmorton

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I know I said I was going to sit this one out, but I am so happy that Spaceman_Spiff posted the video that I tracked down the NOAA article in which they compared the 70 "good" or "best" sites from Anthony Watts' surfacestations.org survey to the overall 1221 stations from the U.S. network.

Here's the LINK

Note the graph on page 3 of the pdf. It shows the overlaid graphs. I am quite impressed.




I think this effectively deals with this critique.


However it should also be stressed that the USHCN climate station set is not the only set of data being used across the earth.



In addition physical recording of temperatures are not the only metric by which climatologists track global climate change.






or​






[/left]


Last I checked plants don't have political agendas, fear-based agendas or lobby for funding from governmental research organizations.


Nor do they rely on any poorly sited USHCN surface stations.



Well the IPCC depends on the USHCN to scare us into doing what they want. From a NOAA site.

"Specifically, USHCN data are used by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate
Change (IPCC), the U.S. Climate Change Science Program (i.e. CCSP Assessment
3.3 on "Climate Extremes"), and NOAA, in the "Annual State of the Climate"
publication. In addition, a number of our popular data products (e.g. local
climatological data, US Normals data) are derived from the USHCN network. We
work continually in developing new partnerships with other states,
countries, and international programs to provide a more extensive and
comprehensive geographic network to monitor climate."
NOAA Economics of USHCN - US Historical Climatology Network Data and Products | Weather & Water | Observing Systems | Land Surface


Now Thau seems to be under the misaprehension that I think the world has not warmed. I told him last time we debated that I KNOW the world has warmed. So I, like him, would expect plants to move north. But, he can't read clearly so he wants to constantly claim that I don't believe the world has warmed. Last night I posted a chart showing that the warming started in 1650--yes, warming Thau. but that warming which started in 1650 has nothing to do with CO2. Indeed, CO2 didn't really start rising until about 1955. All the warming prior to that was natural and it is bigger than that after 1955. Of course, you won't care about this. YOu will soon again claim that I don't believe the world is warming.

I BELIEVE THE WORLD IS WARMING. I hope your old eyes can read that Thau.
 
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thaumaturgy

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Well the IPCC depends on the USHCN to scare us into doing what they want. From a NOAA site.

...

Now Thau seems to be under the misaprehension that I think the world has not warmed. I told him last time we debated that I KNOW the world has warmed. So I, like him, would expect plants to move north.

Let me see if I can do the math here:

1. You kvetch non-stop about the validity of the USHCN temperature data and call global warming advocates "hysteriacs"

2. yet you believe the USHCN data is correct in showing warming?

3. The IPCC, which "uses" USHCN data to scare you by telling you the world is warming which you believe it is.

So how do you know the world is warming, again? Oh, yeah, the USHCN data is OK? Or is it?

But, he can't read clearly so he wants to constantly claim that I don't believe the world has warmed.

I will freely admit I was under the impression you were constantly picking at the USHCN data for a reason. Not just for the fun of picking on data which supports something you actually appear to believe (?)

But, as has been said before, the key differentiator between you and I is that the data and science I've seen around the anthropogenic influence means we are likely at least partially if not largely responsible for the current warming and hence we have a duty to do what we can to stop it. (If we can).

YOu will soon again claim that I don't believe the world is warming.

I BELIEVE THE WORLD IS WARMING. I hope your old eyes can read that Thau.

My aging eyes can read that. I stand corrected. Confused, but corrected.

So let me recap:

You kvetch about data supporting something you believe in? You dedicate a large portion of your blog to complaining about the quality of data that supports what you believe is happening (warming)?

Your complaint, however, appears to be around mechanism of the warming? How does the USHCN data relate to that? CO2 has those two double bonds that absorb in the IR region (I have seen it countless times in the FTIR's I've run), so I'm unsure how the complaints around the USHCN data do anything for that portion of the debate.

Here's some interesting quotations from some guy I once read:

Now if 13% of the world's thermometers are affected by this and the temperature bias is only 5 deg C, what would that mean for the global average temperature? Well, if all thermometers had a 5 degree bias, then the average would also have a 5 deg bias. But only 13% have it, so that would mean that the 13% has a 13% effect on average global temperature. Thus, we find that 13 x 5 = .65 C. If, 100 years ago, there were no parking lots, air conditioners etc, this effect alone would mean that the global temperature would have risen by .65 deg.
Climate at a glance says that the global temperature has risent by about that much since 1880. It all can't be due to parking lots.

So, where lies the discrepancy? Well 70% of the earth is ocean, so lets take only 30% of the 13 percent. That means that 0.195 degrees of the rise is due to class 5 stations. Then if 53% of the stations are class 4 and subject to a 2 degree upward bias, then that means that 0.318 degrees of global warming is due to class 4 bias. These two classes alone can account for .513 degrees C of global warming. Maybe the problem isn't as bad as we think, especially given that the tropospheric temperature measured by satellites don't show warming.
...

Well the earth has heated up by 0.65deg C over the past 100 years, yet we find that the error bar is 0.5 from these guys.

...
Now, when they corrected the badly sited stations, they corrected the trend to match that of global warming. How convenient. They get to chose which stations are good, and then adjust everyone to their trend. That is bad science.

I will post another plot. This is of the temperature trend since 2003. It can be obtained from climate at a glance, a NOAA/Nasa site. Each dot shows cooling (blue) or warming (red). What you will see is that the oceans are cooling since 2003 but the land continues to warm. Why? Does CO2 have zero effect over the oceans? Or is it that urban heat island effect or air conditioners cause the land record to heat, and the oceans have no cities or airconditioners to warm them?

As I said, there are other reasons for the rise on land. Did you notice the methodology the weather service uses for correcting 'bad' stations? They change the trend. That means, you make the trend match what you expect.

You didn't seem to notice that the ending temperature, in 2007 was about the same as the starting temperature in 1979. That is my point. I have no doubt that the temperature goes up and down, but a trend? not necessarily because today's low is not significantly higher than that of 30 years ago.The fact is that we have more CO2 in the atmosphere today than 30 years ago and we don't have a higher tropospheric temperature. Indeed, it has been cooling down over the past few years, just as the oceans have been cooling down (but the land heating.) And once again, you should know that the late 1990s and early 2000s were a high solar output, one of the highest because we had an exceptionally high number of sunspots and solar flux. Below is a solar flux plot which matches the high on the tropospheric temperature. When the sun's output went down, so did the temperature, back to nearly the starting point. No net gain.

I will agree to a very very slight warming but it is not comparable to the quantity of CO2 rise in the atmosphere over that time frame.
...
I don't deny that the regression shows a rise. What I am pointing out is that the starting and ending point are almost the same. this is a cyclical phenomenon, not a linear phenomenon. The sun, in my opinion is the biggest cause of the 2000-2005 rise in satellite temperature. The solar cycle is the cause, not CO2. And now that the sunspots have been at a 100 year low, the weather is getting colder (yall had snow in San Bernadino Co, May 31 this year, and the tropospheric temperature has dropped. CO2 is not involved very much in this.

So, yeah, you did agree to a slight increase. But it seems like you think the world is now cooling? But yet warming?

This is confusing. Sorry, I'm having a bit of difficulty following.
 
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Thistlethorn

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No it is a failing of LAZY scientists who don't care if their dataset is good.

I pointed out the existence of the Homogeneity filter which actually changes the trend of the raw data from cooling to heating. It is published in a peer-reviewed journal,
THOMAS C. PETERSON, "EXAMINATION OF POTENTIAL
BIASES IN AIR TEMPERATURECAUSED BY POOR STATION
LOCATIONS," American Meteorological Society, Aug, 2006, p. 1078 fig 2

You go look it up. If one changes the trends of stations then one is simply making it all up

You're going to have to walk this trough with me. You are still going on about some stations which might be showing bad data, despite the fact that the data shows that it checks out when compared to the complete data-set? You are going to have to post that figure you were referencing, as I have no way of finding it (google was a bust). Are you saying that figure, or the article which we can find it in, says the data collected from the "poorly placed" stations differ greatly from the data collected from all stations? If so, that would directly contradict the data presented earlier, which would mean we have uncovered a major flaw in the science here on either side. I'm sure I'm not the only one who are interested in uncovering were the flaw lies.

I suspect, however, that this is more bluster on your part, or another side-step. I still haven't found the graph you said you posted which shows the same warming trend starting in 1650, going on until today with no major change. Such a graph would also be fairly revolutionizing, as that contradicts the data that the vast majority of climatologists are working with today.

The most confusing thing about this, though, is that you try to attack the data coming from a minority of stations in the US (roughly 6.5% of the total land mass, and about 2% of the total surface area of the earth), as if this would have any major impact on the GLOBAL trend of warming. This is especially confusing since you say you recognize that there is a warming trend. Why are you so worried about data that supports your conclusion? Is this some sort of philanthropic quest to correct all erroneous data, or is it that you are trying to throw as much mud at a wall as possible, in the hope that some will stick? My guess is the latter.
 
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grmorton

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1. Because this time it is faster than ever before, giving life no time to adapt.

Last night I did upload a picture. For some reason when I looked for it today, after blasting Thistlethorn for not looking at the data I posted, I find that apparently it didn't upload. I will try again in this note. My apologies to Thistlethorn for referring to a picture that didn't get uploaded but until I finished this note, I thought it had been posted last night. I don't know what happened.


2. Because PEOPLE ARE LIVING THERE NOW! You don't care about those people, right? Is it because it isn't you? It isn't your family that get everything washed away? It's a very cynical and callous view you hold. You keep saying that they'll just move. My question is: where? If the people of Bangladesh could move so easily, why haven't they already? Why do they remain in one of the most flood- and disease-infested countries in the world? Why do people die there every year from floods? But that doesn't matter, right? As long as it isn't you.

People were living there then. My view is more realistic. We can't stop the sea from rising. We should help them move, so it isn't a callous view. But we can't be so stupid as to think we have the power to command the sea. Who do you think you are, Jesus Christ?



Not as chaotic as you try to make it out to be. It's normally fairly cyclical, in that we get an ice-age, followed by a warmer period.

Now we are in a warmer period and you are petrified. Thistlethorn, THIS IS WHAT AN INTERGLACIAL IS LIKE. THE WORD GETS WARM AND THE ICE MELTS.

Let's look at the interglacial that happened 125,000 years ago. Notice Thistlethorn, I am citing peer reviewed articles, you are citing your opinion above. 125,000 years ago, the seas were 6 meter higher than at present. Southern Greeneland was ice free and was covered by spruce.

"Evidently, the Greenland ice sheet was smaller during MIS 5e and 13 than it is today, but ice probably still covered the location of the Dye 3 ice core. During MIS 11, deglaciation must have been much more extensive. The six-fold increase in spruce pollen abundance during MIS 11 relative to MIS 5e and 13 is unlikely to reflect minor differences in ice sheet size. Spruce is absent in Greenland today not because of the high latitude but because there is no land sufficiently removed from the hostile microclimate at the ice sheet margin. Thus, the Dye 3 area must have been completely deglaciated during MIS 11. For that to occur, most of southern Greenland must have been ice free." Eric J. Steig ad Alexander P. Wolfe, "Sprucing Up Greenland," Science, 320(2008), p. 1596

MIS 11 is around 400 thousand years ago, and there was more of Greenland melting than at present. YET, AMAZINGLY THERE WERE NO CO2 BELCHING AUTOS. If the earth is now engaged in repeating what happened 125,000 years ago we can't stop it. And we would be fools to try.

Please, if you chose to respond to this, cite literature which says that no spruce were living on Greenland 125kyr ago.

Said graph appears to have disappeared, or at least am I unable to find it. I would very much like to see this graph, as it seems that you and I when looking at graphs see two very different images. For example, I cannot get you to admit that when you look at a graph of the heating trend these past 500 years, you see a remarkable jump at the time of the industrial revolution. You keep insisting that this heating trend began at the year 1600, something I have yet to see any evidence of. Could you please repost the graph that shows that too?

Yeah, I don't know what happened to the graph. If it isn't there when I post this, I will post it in its own note. I will also give a link to it.



Animals can't adapt if the changes are too rapid. That is why we get extinction events. As for the Bangladeshi's, I've already talked about them. If you're really naive enough to say "well, why don't they run away from the water", I fear we have little to discuss.

And now you think you can be God and manage extinction events. What hubris. I think you are right we have little to discuss. I will never think you are God, or a god with that kind of power.




I have answered your question. Whatever heating occurred then was natural, most likely. You need to provide evidence for your claim that the heating trend between 1650 to 1850 was as big as the one between 1850 and now, though.

Sigh, The missing graph again.



Again, provide evidence for this heating trend. The graphs I've seen show a distinct jump in temperature rise after the industrial revolution.

From an academic study published in Energy and Environment which shows warming from 1650 on. I posted this last night. This is published in Energy and Environment . It is a peer-reviewed journal.

Loehle, C. and McCulloch, J.H. 2008. Correction to: A 2000-year global temperature reconstruction based on non-tree ring proxies. (note: I always make it a policy to admit previous errors even if no one actually caught me. Last night I had the wrong reference applied to this picture)
Energy & Environment19: 93-100.
Edited at the end of my writing to note that maybe it is a good thing it disappeared because of the bad reference.




Again, this is not what I've seen at all. There is a distinct jump after the industrial revolution, but the temperature rise gets ever bigger as we approach modern times, only to take an uncomfortable vertical appearance these last few years.

Have you bothered to look at Greenland lately? It has been cooling since 2000. I got the second picture off the Goddard Ist. Space Science site Global Climate at a Glance (GCAG), the main page The blue dots are cooling grid nodes. They are cooling since 2000. Of course, why should you believe that place? It is only NOAA.

Can you explain how Greenland can melt if most of it is cooling?


Show me the graph, please.

Go to Signs of the Times News for Tue, 18 Aug 2009- if it doesn't show up tonight.




What are you talking about? I am asking you to provide evidence for your claim that the rise in temperature was as great between 1650-1850 as it was between 1850 and now. This goes contrary to all data I've seen, so I don't believe it. I'm going to call you a liar on this until you provide the data to support it.

Missing picture again goto Signs of the Times News for Tue, 18 Aug 2009- It is the Loehle and McClulloch picture

Thistlethorn, ,you better be sure of things before you call someone a liar. I don't know why you can't see the pictures I am posting but I am posting pictures here and if you can't see them, you just made yourself look like a fool.


Well, it is from an esteemed scientific community for one. It seems to support the data I've seen before, and it completely demolishes your sun-spot argument. Three reasons to trust the data.

:sigh: I guess you can't see pictures yet being a newbie. That has to be the case. I, unlike you will give you the benefit of the doubt. If that benefit is wrong, you are nutso. Your picture starts in 1855 My picture starts in the year 1 AD My picture shows warming from 1650 which your picture cherrypicks off the left edge. In otherwords, what you say is 'esteemed', is a carefully chosen graph to avoid showing the sheeple people the fact that there is more warming out there than is explainable by CO2.


Didn't you say your were a scientist? Scientists don't PROVE things, unless they are mathematicians. Scientists deal in evidence. The evidence for the current warming being in large part man-made are plentiful. For one, we have the correlation of green-house gas emissions with the rise in temperature. We know these gases SHOULD cause a green-house effect. We find by observation that they do so. We know that natural sources of green-house gases are very few compared to human emission. It's a fairly simple puzzle.

You are making the claim that warming before 1850 is natural and warming after 1920 is human. I said that you must have miraculous powers so prove to me that you can intuit what is human from what is natural. I used prove in the correct sense. You must prove that you have psychic abilities and I am curious to see how this works. Unless you PROVE you have those powers, I won't beleive it.



You should take a course in critical thinking. You are economically dependent on our continued extraction of fossil-fuels. You don't have a doctorate. The climatologists I listen to have no economical motives for lying. The climatologists I listen to have shown their results and the method for which they got the results. It checks out. The climatologists I listen to have a higher education than you. Pretty logical if you ask me.
Interesting. I did graduate work in philosophy and have probably had more logic courses than you and at a graduate level. So, I will stand by my critical thinking abilities. You are the one before whom I post pictures and you claim they aren't evidence. Anyway...

The climatologists you listen to are all government funded. That means they have an economic motive (not economical motive) to keep us telling our congressmen and parlimentarians to keep funding them. Where else do you think these climatologists get their money? I certainly don't hire them.

I will freely grant that the climatologists have Ph. D.s. But you illogically seem to imply that if one doesn't have a Ph. D. one is automatically wrong. Bill Gates doesn't have a Ph. D and he has been right on lots of things. Einstein actually wrote his important papers BEFORE he got his Ph. D. Golly throw them out. Michael Faraday was one of the most important scientists in electricity and magnetism and he couldn't even do math--never even went to college. What a snob you are to try this "you don't have a ph. d' routine. Deal with the data that I keep posting and you keep ignoring. There are almost no posts to you that I don't post a picture. If you aren't seeing them, then you better have a bit more humility before you further make a fool of yourself.


You can start by presenting peer-reviewed evidence for your claim that the warming trend between 1650-1850 was as big as the warming trend between 1850 and now.

there is a picture of it attached to this post.


No. I'm going to accuse you of it instead. I am fairly certain that you know that you're talking boloney. If it should turn out that you're just dumb, I will apologize.

Dumb is not something people who know me use. Ignorant I am. I am ignorant of many things but on things I study, I am quite knowledgeable. When you can finally see the pictures I am posting , all from peer-reviewed sources, I expect an apology from you, but I won't hold my breath. People who pull out the 'you don't have a ph d.' routine are not often seen having the humility to apologise for anything.


No. Your assertions weren't supported by the peer-reviewed quotations and graphs you presented. Have you forgotten again what your assertions were? Here they are: Global warming acknowledgers deny the Holocene. Global warming isn't man-made. Global warming is nothing to worry about. These assertions have not been supported by your sources.

No, that was not my assertion. That is your twisted view of my assertion. I see little reason to accept your view of what I said. If you want to continue to twist what I said, that is your perogative. But know this that you aren't looking real good right now claiming that you are not seeing pictures that I clearly post and which appear at the bottom of my posts.


What do you think is going to happen? Do you think the climate will change at all? Do you think everything will be hunky-dory?

No, everything will be bleak. The world is about to run out of oil and it will happen before 2020. That will kill the economy. that is why I invested in oil and used the profits to get out of debt and buy a ranch so I can produce food for my family. I can absolutely assure you that I am not rare in the oil industry. Many of us are buying ranches and farms for the same reason. We are all going back to the 19th century but not because of global warming.


I have answered that. My answer is: It doesn't matter in the big picture. Taking ONLY the stations Watt's thought was fine shows almost exactly the same over-all trend as taking all stations, including the "bad" ones. You're answer to this was that they must have manipulated the data. That's a lazy way out when the data don't support your conclusions.

So, you think that putting a thermometer above an air conditioner has zero effect on the reading of that thermometer. I think you need to take a physics course.


No you didn't. At least, I can't see it.

sorry, I don't know why it didn't post unless it was because I had too many characters in the post and had to cut things out.


That's cute. You don't think man has anything to do with climate-change. Do you also deny other aspects of human activity being detrimental to our biosphere? Like deforestation, pollution, over-fishing, etc? Surely you would equate halting these activities to King Canute as well?
So whom do you want to starve to death when you limit fishing and farming? and you say I am callous.

I really have a problem with this attitude. It is best explained in an anecdote: The waiting room at a maternity-ward. It is packed with new mothers and soon-to-be mothers. One of them is chain-smoking, and has been for the last two hours. When asked to stop, she says: "I just have 10 more cigarettes left. When those are out, I'll stop".

So, are you going to volunteer to stop eating fish and farm produced foods so we can cease clearing land and over fishing? Be my guest but don't lecture me until you are willing to stop those activities.
 
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grmorton

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You're going to have to walk this trough with me. You are still going on about some stations which might be showing bad data, despite the fact that the data shows that it checks out when compared to the complete data-set? You are going to have to post that figure you were referencing, as I have no way of finding it (google was a bust). Are you saying that figure, or the article which we can find it in, says the data collected from the "poorly placed" stations differ greatly from the data collected from all stations? If so, that would directly contradict the data presented earlier, which would mean we have uncovered a major flaw in the science here on either side. I'm sure I'm not the only one who are interested in uncovering were the flaw lies.

I suspect, however, that this is more bluster on your part, or another side-step. I still haven't found the graph you said you posted which shows the same warming trend starting in 1650, going on until today with no major change. Such a graph would also be fairly revolutionizing, as that contradicts the data that the vast majority of climatologists are working with today.

I am always amazed at the arrogance of those who think I am arrogant. I will freely admit that I am arrogant but I just posted the picture. See my post for an explanation but basically I don't know why it didn't appear and I didn't catch it last night. You are quite quick to call people names. Maybe as quick as I am. That isn't a good trait.

the Homogeneity filter is in post 49 of this thread. If you can't take the time to ponder it and the implications of the corresponding article, then you are not the scientist you think you are.

The most confusing thing about this, though, is that you try to attack the data coming from a minority of stations in the US (roughly 6.5% of the total land mass, and about 2% of the total surface area of the earth), as if this would have any major impact on the GLOBAL trend of warming. This is especially confusing since you say you recognize that there is a warming trend. Why are you so worried about data that supports your conclusion? Is this some sort of philanthropic quest to correct all erroneous data, or is it that you are trying to throw as much mud at a wall as possible, in the hope that some will stick? My guess is the latter.


No, I have looked at several hundred closely spaced stations in many different countries. Here is what I expect: Closely spaced stations should be very close in the temperatures they report. They should be so close that the temperature gradient should be less than that of a cold front--i.e. 0.1 deg F per mile. When one examines the daily records of stations just 20 miles apart or so, one finds that there are a huge percentage of days where the temperature gradient is greater than .1 deg per mile. Notice in the picture below that there are a huge number of days in which the reported temperature gradient is greather than .2 deg per mile which is the temperature gradient that causes huge thunderstorms. Since there are not that many days with thunderstorms, then clearly the temperatures are wrong.

Edited to ask: Thistle,, do you think this is a proper amount of variation in temperature for 2 towns at nearly the same elevation only 24 miles apart?
 
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Thistlethorn

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The picture is there. Will you now kindly withdraw your 'liar' charge, or are you lacking in common courtesy?

Ok, I'll withdraw my "liar" statement, and instead call you ignorant. I'll just counter your whole argument with the famous "hockey stick", updated and affirmed by the National Academy of Sciences. I think I'll stick to the data climatologists are using, instead of your graph.
climateprogress.org/wp-content/uploads/2008/09/mann1.jpg
 
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Thistlethorn

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the Homogeneity filter is in post 49 of this thread. If you can't take the time to ponder it and the implications of the corresponding article, then you are not the scientist you think you are.

I never said I was a scientist. You said you were, and I frankly don't believe you.

No, I have looked at several hundred closely spaced stations in many different countries. Here is what I expect: Closely spaced stations should be very close in the temperatures they report. They should be so close that the temperature gradient should be less than that of a cold front--i.e. 0.1 deg F per mile. When one examines the daily records of stations just 20 miles apart or so, one finds that there are a huge percentage of days where the temperature gradient is greater than .1 deg per mile. Notice in the picture below that there are a huge number of days in which the reported temperature gradient is greather than .2 deg per mile which is the temperature gradient that causes huge thunderstorms. Since there are not that many days with thunderstorms, then clearly the temperatures are wrong.

Speaking from personal experience (not very scientific, I know) local variation in temperature isn't uncommon at all. I work 12 km from where I live. Often, the temperature variation is greater than 1 or 2 degrees, sometimes up to 5 degrees. This has to do with the geography of the surrounding area.

I'm going to ask you this: WHY would we expect such a small difference? It seems to me that local variations should be expected. I mean, check your local weather map. Mine shows temperature variations much greater than the one you are complaining about.
 
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Thistlethorn

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Did some digging, and found this interesting discussion on the article with the graph you presented: realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2007/12/past-reconstructions/

It would seem the data you base your conclusions on isn't as solid as you might think.
 
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dad

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Straw man. I never said they were all going to die. I said that it's probably that some will die, and most will go homeless.
Wow. So only some die. The rest go homeless. And they lived happily ever after. Many fears exist when man forgets to include God.

It's a pretty easy equation. Let me walk you through it:
1. The earth warms up.
2. The ice-caps melt, draining all water into the oceans.
3. The oceans rise.
4. Coastal areas all around the world are flooded.
5. People living in those areas (most of the world's population) become homeless. Billions of refugees. Difficult to distribute food and medicine. Massive catastrophe.
OK, sounds like it happens in a day or two. What if they saw it coming for months? Are people that dumb. to just sit there and drown? I understand that you have some facts to work with. You also lack knowing the future. Many new things surface, that erase prophesies of freaked out, partially informed men, it seems. What makes you special, and an exception to the rule?

Do you envisage another scenario?
238983_f260.jpg


Yes, I envision world peace, plenty, and a pristine new earth. I also envision that your dark tales are not solidly based, and have no time to come to fruition.



Scientists CAN separate Hydrogen from Oxygen (the other component of water). What you tried to do with your little example, though, is make a claim that us doing so would lower the amount of water on the planet. That wouldn't happen, because we live in a closed system biosphere.
No. I was not referring to what can be done. Today, it is not practical to derive a lot of power from sea water as I understand it. That is why oil is popular still. Our present technology requires power to get power. Too much. Correct me if I am wrong there. I was referring to some possible future quantum based technology, or something, that deals in the atomic level. If man could separate the atoms, and derive the O, and put it back into the air, and the H, and use it for power, maybe the water level might go down? Besides, the flooded earth was full of water. I see no other explanation, but that a lot of it went out of this closed system! I don't see it here...do you?


Distribution is a major factor, yes, but that ties neatly in with the "not enough food for everyone" argument. We can't distribute food sufficiently well over the entire world. Thus, it leads to a scenario were there's not enough food for everyone.
Can't is a funny word. Maybe "won't" may be a better word.


You don't really care much for scientists, do you? Your hate is showing here.
Hey, don't be silly. I care for the guy that shines my shoes, and the gal that serves my food, and the folks that clean for me, and etc etc. Why would I not care for scientists? Long as they serve me well, and don't put on airs.


Have I said cars aren't needed? This is straw man number 2 in your reply to me. Cars are needed, but fossil fuel is not necessarily needed to propel cars. Furthermore, there is a lot of other sources of green-house gases as well.
Obviously cars are not the only source. Why use strawmen?? Tell us, then, what else can we filll the car and truck with??! You seem to have the answers.



A fine idea. Let's start with your country (I assume it's the USA?) which has the biggest stockpile of WMDs in the world. While we're dealing with the WMDs, is it ok with you if we deal with global warming as well? Why the "one-or-the-other" attitude?
Well if they use the one, the other won't matter!



No, that's a religious concept. Not a pollutant.
Says you. What, you believe that? Well, even if you dom it is still just a belief. That doesn't change the murders, and thefts, and crime, and greed, and depravity of the heart of man that is demonstrated every day in every way. Your beliefs can't wave wickedness away. And the wickedness of man is behind the pollution, war, and suffering.



So, according to you we are to sit on our hands and whistle until God bails us out?
No. Neither are we to run full speed crying 'the sky is falling' 'most will be homeless, and drown, and starve'
 
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grmorton

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Let me see if I can do the math here:

1. You kvetch non-stop about the validity of the USHCN temperature data and call global warming advocates "hysteriacs"

2. yet you believe the USHCN data is correct in showing warming?

Gee, you can't pay any attention at all. No, I believe the proxy data which shows warming. I don't trust the temperature record at all. You never have responded to this little ditty about Phil Jones the Head of the group that handles Hadcrut temperature data set, one of the most influential data sets in the world. He won't tell anyone what he is doing and he won't let anyone else see the raw data.

He said:

Professor Phil Jones, the activist-scientist who maintains the data set, has cited various reasons for refusing to release the raw data. Most famously, Jones told an Australian climate scientist in 2004:
Even if WMO agrees, I will still not pass on the data. We have 25 or so years invested in the work. Why should I make the data available to you, when your aim is to try and find something wrong with it.

Global Warming ate my data ? The Register




A simply question, Thau, do you think this is a man whose scientific work you can trust? Please answer.

I might also point people to a thoughtful blog on this

But probably nothing could damage the credibility of climate change
believers than the recent revelation by the Climatic Research Unit (CRU)
<http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/> that it has lost or destroyed all the
original data used to construct historic global temperature records. The
CRU, at the University of East Anglia in the UK, which has been using
information collected from weather stations across the globe for
decades, is probably the most widely cited source worldwide for those
mounting a case that the earth has exhibited an inexorable warming
trend: its website boasts that CRU&#8217;s research has &#8220;set the agenda for
the major research effort in, and political preoccupation with, climate
research.&#8221; The critical raw climate data responsible, which scientists
of all climate-creeds have a natural interest in, is now gone,
apparently, forever. With the exception of a handful of countries that
the CRU has agreements with to sell its data, all that remains for the
bulk of the statistics are &#8220;value added&#8221; versions, which is to say,
consolidated, homogenized data. Actually, the CRU says it doesn&#8217;t even
have all the data for countries it has data-sharing agreements with. &#8220;We
know that there were others, but cannot locate them, possibly as we've
moved offices several times during the 1980s,&#8221; the CRU writes in a
rather embarrassing explanation for all this posted on its website.
science - Full Comment


3. The IPCC, which "uses" USHCN data to scare you by telling you the world is warming which you believe it is.

So how do you know the world is warming, again? Oh, yeah, the USHCN data is OK? Or is it?

Oh thou whose ears are stopped and eyes blind. No. But you are showing so much anger at me, that you don't actually listen to anything I say. I beleive the deuterium records from ice cores that all show warming since the Little Ice Age. What I don't beleive is that the temperature record from thermometers is at all trustworthy.

I wonder how you will next try to twist what I am saying.



I will freely admit I was under the impression you were constantly picking at the USHCN data for a reason. Not just for the fun of picking on data which supports something you actually appear to believe (?)

If you would actually read the posts rather than go into knee-jerk reaction you would know that in my reply to Thistlethorn I said that I beleive the world is warming but that I doubt the causation because, as I finally got posted, the graph shows that warming started long before the CO2 began rising. Indeed, Thau, Let's take a backward look at what IPCC predictions of CO2's effect on temperature should be.

From my blog
****
Today we are going to take a backward look at the IPCC's predictions about global warming to see if the past 40 years have behaved as they claim the next 40 years will behave.

The IPCC says this

"The equilibrium climate sensitivity is a measure of the
climate system response to sustained radiative forcing.
It is not a projection but is defined as the global average
surface warming following a doubling of carbon
dioxide concentrations. It is likely to be in the range
2&#176;C to 4.5&#176;C with a best estimate of about 3&#176;C, and is
very unlikely to be less than 1.5&#176;C. Values substantially
higher than 4.5&#176;C cannot be excluded, but agreement
of models with observations is not as good for those
values."
IPCC, 2007: Summary for Policymakers. In: Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis.
Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
[Solomon, S., D. Qin, M. Manning, Z. Chen, M. Marquis, K.B. Averyt, M.Tignor and H.L. Miller (eds.) Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA., P. 12 Source


They say that the temperature rise will go up 2 to 4.5 degrees for every doubling of CO2. The temperature rise due to CO2 is logarithmic and the math works out as follows:

***
I will skip the math here it can be found at The Migrant Mind: A Backward Look at IPCC predictions of Temperature Rise

What I am doing is applying the rise in temperature that they scare us with to the temperature record (flawed as it is). If we are to beleive their scare-mongering predictions, we must ask the question why didn't the past behave as they say the future will???? Maybe they are just wrong in their predictions.

But, as has been said before, the key differentiator between you and I is that the data and science I've seen around the anthropogenic influence means we are likely at least partially if not largely responsible for the current warming and hence we have a duty to do what we can to stop it. (If we can).

If so, why doesn't the temperature over the past 40 - 50 years follow what the IPCC predicts. The temperature is rising much less than the rate they scare us with.

I won't deny that CO2 will add a bit to the temperature, but I don't think it is adding enough temperature to the world to be worrisome. Why? Because of feedback loops. Are you aware that no global climate model can handle clouds? Are you aware of how little information there is on the response of clouds to warming?



So, yeah, you did agree to a slight increase. But it seems like you think the world is now cooling? But yet warming?

This is confusing. Sorry, I'm having a bit of difficulty following.

It would help if you would listen and stop demonizing me all the time.

I know that over the past couple of years every bit of anecdotal data says we are cooling. This July's average temperature in the US was .8 deg F below the 20th century average! That is one hell of a lot of coolling for July. And I think the sun is more responsible than you all do. 80&#37; of the days of 2008 have been devoid of sunspots. If we don't have a spot today it will have been 40 days since a spot. We are 2-3 years late in the start up of the next sunspot cycle. The sun is not doing its normal thing. edited to add: Oh yeah, the solar wind velocity has fallen precipitously over the past few years. [sarcastic mode on]of course we all know that the sun has nothing whatsoever to do with the temperature of the earth[sarcastic mode off]

But then, I am a demon idiot for having the termerity to think things that you all don't approve of.

Now tell me what you think of Phil Jones attitude towards letting other researchers see the raw data. And then tell me why you trust that dataset.
 
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grmorton

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Did some digging, and found this interesting discussion on the article with the graph you presented: realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2007/12/past-reconstructions/

It would seem the data you base your conclusions on isn't as solid as you might think.

I am sorry but REalclimate.org is a political organization. You claim that you want peer-reviewed journals used. They are not a peer reviewed journal. Please be consistent.

I guess you get to use whatever resource you want to use but you want me to use whatever resource you want me to use. Interesting double standard.
 
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