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The 7 stages of AI

sjastro

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There are approximately seven stages of AI development. In the mid-2020s, we are at Stages 3 and 4. See AI.

Stage 1 - Rule Based AI
Tasks have clearcut rules. Expert systems were the first AI. See expert system.

Stage 2 - Context Awareness
System learns from past interactions. Examples are virtual assistants. See Siri and Google Assistant.

Stage 3 - Domain Specific
Highly skilled in a specific field. For example, AlphaGo beat a human Go champion. See Google Brain.

Stage 4 - Reasoning
An AI that resembles human intelligence. See ChatGPT.

Stage 5 - General Intelligence
Like a human mind with self-awareness. See AGI.

Stage 6 - Super AI
A super intelligence that outperforms humans in many areas. See AGI.

Stage 7 - Singularity
Computers make all the decisions. See technology singularity.

 

Occams Barber

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There are approximately seven stages of AI development. In the mid-2020s, we are at Stages 3 and 4. See AI.

Stage 1 - Rule Based AI
Tasks have clearcut rules. Expert systems were the first AI. See expert system.

Stage 2 - Context Awareness
System learns from past interactions. Examples are virtual assistants. See Siri and Google Assistant.

Stage 3 - Domain Specific
Highly skilled in a specific field. For example, AlphaGo beat a human Go champion. See Google Brain.

Stage 4 - Reasoning
An AI that resembles human intelligence. See ChatGPT.

Stage 5 - General Intelligence
Like a human mind with self-awareness. See AGI.

Stage 6 - Super AI
A super intelligence that outperforms humans in many areas. See AGI.

Stage 7 - Singularity
Computers make all the decisions. See technology singularity.



I find it difficult to imagine how the step from Stage 4 to Stage 5 (self-awareness) can be achieved.

That doesn't mean I think it's not possible - I just have trouble understanding what specific facility (in humans) results in self-awareness, and how this can be incorporated into an AI.

OB
 
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Maria Billingsley

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There are approximately seven stages of AI development. In the mid-2020s, we are at Stages 3 and 4. See AI.

Stage 1 - Rule Based AI
Tasks have clearcut rules. Expert systems were the first AI. See expert system.

Stage 2 - Context Awareness
System learns from past interactions. Examples are virtual assistants. See Siri and Google Assistant.

Stage 3 - Domain Specific
Highly skilled in a specific field. For example, AlphaGo beat a human Go champion. See Google Brain.

Stage 4 - Reasoning
An AI that resembles human intelligence. See ChatGPT.

Stage 5 - General Intelligence
Like a human mind with self-awareness. See AGI.

Stage 6 - Super AI
A super intelligence that outperforms humans in many areas. See AGI.

Stage 7 - Singularity
Computers make all the decisions. See technology singularity.

Artificial intelligence mimics. So it can never be a trustworthy singularity. We, its creator , will always have the upper hand,
 
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Occams Barber

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Artificial intelligence mimics. So it can never be a trustworthy singularity. We, its creator , will always have the upper hand,
Unfortunately Maria, human built machinery frequently gets out of control. We would be remiss in assuming that this couldn't happen with AI. We may be the creator but we're not infallible.

OB
 
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Petros2015

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Artificial intelligence mimics.

That can be quite dangerous depending on what it is mimicking. Even in stages 4 and 5, something that is not actually self-aware but really really good at mimicking something that is could quickly become a problem. Maybe not existential species threat level (that would take some thorough dedicated planning), but definitely Chernobyl level is not out of the question. At that point, not being self-aware might be a liability. A non-self aware AI isn't going to think "Oops! one of the byproducts of my actions seems to be killing a lot of humans" any more than a forest fire will.
 
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sjastro

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Artificial intelligence mimics. So it can never be a trustworthy singularity. We, its creator , will always have the upper hand,
I used to consider myself a reasonably good chess player and if I lost a game against a human opponent I would understand why I lost.
Chess playing algorithms at stage 4 of AI are only given the basic rules of chess and learn to play the game through reinforcement learning without any human intervention.
I have played a few games against the AI program Leela Chess Zero which plays chess at a superhuman level where I have been comprehensively destroyed in each game and without the slightest idea of how I lost where there were no apparent errors made on my part.
 
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sjastro

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I find it difficult to imagine how the step from Stage 4 to Stage 5 (self-awareness) can be achieved.

That doesn't mean I think it's not possible - I just have trouble understanding what specific facility (in humans) results in self-awareness, and how this can be incorporated into an AI.

OB
I agree it's hard to discuss self awareness in AI when we humans are too busy debating the philosophical meaning of self awareness let alone how it works in our own brains.
The father of AI Geoffrey Hinton believes self awareness in AI clouds the issue but warns there could be an existential threat.

 
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Occams Barber

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I agree it's hard to discuss self awareness in AI when we humans are too busy debating the philosophical meaning of self awareness let alone how it works in our own brains.
The father of AI Geoffrey Hinton believes self awareness in AI clouds the issue but warns there could be an existential threat.

Thanks Sjastro - very thought provoking, I'll be waiting anxiously to see what the next 5 years brings.

OB
 
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Halbhh

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I used to consider myself a reasonably good chess player and if I lost a game against a human opponent I would understand why I lost.
Chess playing algorithms at stage 4 of AI are only given the basic rules of chess and learn to play the game through reinforcement learning without any human intervention.
I have played a few games against the AI program Leela Chess Zero which plays chess at a superhuman level where I have been comprehensively destroyed in each game and without the slightest idea of how I lost where there were no apparent errors made on my part.
:) Yes, I remember way back in the 1980s with early chess programs that I could beat them sometimes. That became far harder in the 90s where when I finally won a game it relied on a very long term plan I could carry out that the 19 deep ply could not detect soon enough. Now, to win today, I suppose instead it would be more like luck/a lottery ticket even if I played perfectly in my own review of my play, I'd need that luck of making some move choices between ok moves where I happen to keep choosing the only winning one and maybe the odds are going to be more like on the order of like 1 in 10^6 or worse against todays AI (at the moment), etc. But, there's always that tiny possibility, in that chess isn't yet solved. (it will be solved when it's finally discovered what are the only-possible best moves by white -- winning (or perhaps drawing at best) -- and to all of these the best possible response series of moves by black.)
 
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sjastro

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:) Yes, I remember way back in the 1980s with early chess programs that I could beat them sometimes. That became far harder in the 90s where when I finally won a game it relied on a very long term plan I could carry out that the 19 deep ply could not detect soon enough. Now, to win today, I suppose instead it would be more like luck/a lottery ticket even if I played perfectly in my own review of my play, I'd need that luck of making some move choices between ok moves where I happen to keep choosing the only winning one and maybe the odds are going to be more like on the order of like 1 in 10^6 or worse against todays AI (at the moment), etc. But, there's always that tiny possibility, in that chess isn't yet solved. (it will be solved when it's finally discovered what are the only-possible best moves by white -- winning (or perhaps drawing at best) -- and to all of these the best possible response series of moves by black.)
Here is the progress of computer chess over the years.

ELO_Chance.jpg

To put this into perspective there is now a 700 point ELO difference between the very best human players and stage 4 AI chess players.
Based on statistics the very best human players have a probability of only around 1.75% of beating stage 4 AI chess players.
Grandmasters have commented computers now play "insane attacking chess" with a profound positional understanding of the game well beyond human players.

This could be a preview of what might happen if or when AI reaches stage 6.

 
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durangodawood

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.....Grandmasters have commented computers now play "insane attacking chess" with a profound positional understanding of the game well beyond human players.....
"Understanding" has a flavor of not just doing but knowing. And even knowing that you know.

I do think word choices can bias our thinking. But its a challenging domain to find the right words for.
 
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durangodawood

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I find it difficult to imagine how the step from Stage 4 to Stage 5 (self-awareness) can be achieved.

That doesn't mean I think it's not possible - I just have trouble understanding what specific facility (in humans) results in self-awareness, and how this can be incorporated into an AI.

OB
I heard a proposed explanation for the origin of self awareness in humans (and to a lesser degree in other animals).

It comes from our need for making mental maps of our world and situating ourselves in it - in order to plan, prepare, make various decisions, etc. That gives us the kernel of a 3rd person perspective on our-selves, which we can then develop and identify with. Thats the idea anyway, approximately.

(It also might explain why cats are more self aware then we are.)
 
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durangodawood

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Just wondering if these things run on silicon wafers?
I think silicon wafers are still the typical choice for the structural base of the circuit array. But Im no expert.
 
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sjastro

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"Understanding" has a flavor of not just doing but knowing. And even knowing that you know.

I do think word choices can bias our thinking. But its a challenging domain to find the right words for.
It is a case of knowing as AI chess players provide analysis during the game particularly on positional chess which are beyond humans to understand when limited to the constraints of tournament chess time controls.
It is only when human experts are given unlimited time to analyse AI chess moves do things make sense.

Stockfish has also analysed human games considered to be masterpieces only to find serious flaws made by the winners.
In the example given although there is a human voice and graphics to provide comic relief, the analysis by Stockfish of the moves made by each player is revealed including their blunders and the recommended correct moves.

 
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durangodawood

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It is a case of knowing as AI chess players provide analysis during the game particularly on positional chess which are beyond humans to understand when limited to the constraints of tournament chess time controls.
It is only when human experts are given unlimited time to analyse AI chess moves do things make sense.

Stockfish has also analysed human games considered to be masterpieces only to find serious flaws made by the winners.
In the example given although there is a human voice and graphics to provide comic relief, the analysis by Stockfish of the moves made by each player is revealed including their blunders and the recommended correct moves.

That leads us to the question: is the analysis you refer to just a higher powered "doing" rather than "knowing" - in the same sense of doing that the very first chess computer did its task....?

Or does the distinction between doing and knowing simply become specious at this level of performance?

And is knowing that you know, which I mentioned before, an important distinction between human and machine capabilities?

(Also, I dont know why humans would need to provide the voice and graphics. But I would be fairly impressed if stockfish wrote the humor, and super impressed if it was amused by it.)
 
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Halbhh

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Here is the progress of computer chess over the years.


To put this into perspective there is now a 700 point ELO difference between the very best human players and stage 4 AI chess players.
Based on statistics the very best human players have a probability of only around 1.75% of beating stage 4 AI chess players.
Grandmasters have commented computers now play "insane attacking chess" with a profound positional understanding of the game well beyond human players.

This could be a preview of what might happen if or when AI reaches stage 6.

I remember reviewing Kasparov's games against Deep Blue in the 90s, how Gary won the first match -- to the delight of most of us I bet -- but then Deep Blue became stronger on the rematch after they worked on it some more. As I remember it, Kasparov was a little freaked out how it became stronger and won that 2nd match. Chess programs had always had some significant weaknesses that good GMs could strategically exploit (if they also could play without significant errors), and it was unnerving perhaps for Kasparov that it could get past those, and he wondered how much GMs had helped it, etc.

But now we are well past those days, and in a whole new regime that Deep Blue only had a very limited version of, and while I'm not yet convinced that there will be a 7th generation AI we are on the other hand already in a day where it will be best if military AIs are somehow programmed to have as a goal the preservation of humanity. Asimov's laws are finally needed.
 
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sjastro

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That leads us to the question: is the analysis you refer to just a higher powered "doing" rather than "knowing" - in the same sense of doing that the very first chess computer did its task....?

Or does the distinction between doing and knowing simply become specious at this level of performance?

And is knowing that you know, which I mentioned before, an important distinction between human and machine capabilities?

(Also, I dont know why humans would need to provide the voice and graphics. But I would be fairly impressed if stockfish wrote the humor, and super impressed if it was amused by it.)
AI stage 4 chess players learn chess through reinforcement learning.

1693436438333.png

The “doing” part are the rules of chess humans provide AI including the objective to win games based on maximizing some numerical evaluation such as 1 point for a win, 0.5 points for a draw and 0 points for a loss.
The rest is up to AI where it trains itself through self-playing of chess games.
Initially it plays like a novice and builds up skill levels based on the number of self-played games.
This is the “knowing” or skill level part.
It finally reaches a stage where it can only win games only through long range deep positional chess which is way beyond any human player subject to tournament time controls.

When it analyses human games through the lens of deep positional chess, it can immediately the see the blunders and understand the short range tactical and positional planning humans use in chess limited by their brains.
 
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Mountainmike

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:) Yes, I remember way back in the 1980s with early chess programs that I could beat them sometimes. That became far harder in the 90s where when I finally won a game it relied on a very long term plan I could carry out that the 19 deep ply could not detect soon enough. Now, to win today, I suppose instead it would be more like luck/a lottery ticket even if I played perfectly in my own review of my play, I'd need that luck of making some move choices between ok moves where I happen to keep choosing the only winning one and maybe the odds are going to be more like on the order of like 1 in 10^6 or worse against todays AI (at the moment), etc. But, there's always that tiny possibility, in that chess isn't yet solved. (it will be solved when it's finally discovered what are the only-possible best moves by white -- winning (or perhaps drawing at best) -- and to all of these the best possible response series of moves by black.)
Do you remember M chess - it was a tough cookie to beat on highest grades.
Fritz at the time wasnt bad but far easier to beat.

It was the first time cheap commercial programmes got over 200 ECf grade -say 2300 elo.

I remember the days when a guy called Brian levy began analysing the scope of the problem Pre PC
He Wrote some articles in Baruch woods “ chess magazine” At a time there were not even cheap calculators!
How much memory , computer power it would take , in the days of cards and paper tape.

Its only in the late 80s pcs got beyond 1 m ram and 10-100m disk.
Its hard to remember now but in 1990 a single image wouldn’t fit in PC ram!
Array processors were only Tens of MOps, Although could be networked (, which was the bane of physical modelling - eg weather and signal processing too)
Since then both computer and memory power growth has been exponential growth
, and that rather than cleverness overwhelmed it.

Mchess itself fitted on multiple 1 m floppy disks.( who else remembers them?)
Those programmes were in essence a deep opening database , candidate moves, analysis 5-10 moves deep then mechanised positional analysis which is how players of the time did it too. (The cleverest of them like Fischer were better able to assess position , and could certainly analyse deeper Who remembers when he thrashed other grandmasters 6-0 in world champs games! my idol at the time!)

But Brute force has allowed the problem to be overwhelmed rather than solved,
With the ability to analyse 20-30 moves deep and big hash matrixes of 6 endgame pieces etc,

The point I am making…
the reliance of brute force has REDUCED the need for accurate positional assessment, because the search depth allows the positional advantage ( at say 5 moves ) to translate into material advantage at 10-15 moves or big positional advantage which is far easier to measure, for a man as well as machine. But a machine can think quicker and do more.

Humans have a harder job Because they can never analyse so many or so deep variations , they still have to be better at positional assessment.

in short human reasoning is more versatile than machine , but overwhelmed by mechanised power.

I’ve not followed it last couple of years but

The 2800 elo grade seems to represent pretty much human limits,
 
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