Sorry for the delay. I had lost interest in this thread, but I felt I should return and respond.
I'm with you here.
I'm with you here, too, except that some of the equations I remember seeing didn't even assume abiogenesis was limited to planets. They used boundaries such as the mass of the entire universe, not just mass bounded by earthlike planets.
I had started a thread about something like that, actually. Eugene Koonin wrote a paper a few years ago and appealed to the multiverse to improve his odds for abiogenesis. If you're interested, it's probably on page 2 or 3 by now.
I have to wonder, though, where you fit the will of God into all this. God is credited with the creation of life, and Jesus himself, the Word of God, is called the "Author of Life". It sounds to me like you're arguing for chance.
Basically, the universe appears uniform as far as we can see. There is no reason to suspect it stops being uniform beyond our ability to see. We can figure out, based on math, how far further out could have at some point in our history interacted with us, but there is really no way of knowing how much has ALWAYS been causally separated from us. Basically, we could set a floor on likelyhood based on the observable universe IF we had enough data to actually calculate that, but there is no way of putting a cap on that figure because it requires information that, at least under current models, is theoretically unknowable. If the universe is infinite, the odds of life occurring somewhere is 100%. Even assuming the worst case scenarios for ALL other math behind the calculation, would would only be able to say the odds are between ~0 and 100%.
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