Should men support things that belittle them?

[Autumnleaf]

Don't knock it too much. It had it's drawbacks--it could be dreary for intelligent women. But across cultures and down through time a division of labor between the sexes has been the norm. Our own culture is not pristine -- we have our own drawbacks. For example, now you have no one at home parenting the kids, and you have a generation of little brats who have grown up to be immature adults.

That is how it is when the adults have to work to trade massive amounts of time for currency that they trade in for food and rent. On the flip side this allows the controllers of the currency to live lives beyond the dreams of avarice.

 

[Open Heart]

Well, gotta say I was surprised myself. I would have expected a slight, but not dramatic increase.
Now, there could be some factors in play that might not allow to directly conclude from the number of arrests on the numbers of offenses (arrest practices may have changed, police not doing their work properly anymore...just to name two, hypothetically), but in any case this doesn´t look like juvenile theft skyrocketing, exactly.

I wonder what the rate was for the 70s.

 

[Open Heart]

That is how it is when the adults have to work to trade massive amounts of time for currency that they trade in for food and rent.

You realize I'm sure that this is partly due to the inflation of prices and rent due to two income families.

 

[Autumnleaf]

You realize I'm sure that this is partly due to the inflation of prices and rent due to two income families.

No, inflation is due to government printing more money than is already in circulation. "You realize I'm sure that"

 

[David Colin Gould]

I teach mathematics to year 11 and 12. We are in a wealthy town, but not in a wealthy neighbourhood of that town. Student behaviour is pretty much the same to what it was when I was at school, which was in the same wealthy town but in a different non-wealthy neighbourhood. There are more distractions for them and there is a battle over mobile phone use in class, but I have been pleasantly surprised by behaviour. Stories in the media about how terrible this generation is seem to me to be overblown.

 

[Open Heart]

No, inflation is due to government printing more money than is already in circulation. "You realize I'm sure that"

Surely you know there is more than one cause of inflation. When the majority of families in America become two income families, the prices adjust upwards (making it VERY hard on single parent homes btw). It can't help but do so. We're talking about doubling over time. It's supply and demand, basic economics.

 

[quatona]

Surely you know there is more than one cause of inflation. When the majority of families in America become two income families, the prices adjust upwards (making it VERY hard on single parent homes btw). It can't help but do so. We're talking about doubling over time. It's supply and demand, basic economics.

I´m not that well versed in economics...but I don´t think price changes due to changes of supply and demand is what is called "inflation/deflation" in economics.

 

[bhsmte]

You realize I'm sure that this is partly due to the inflation of prices and rent due to two income families.

It has more to do with people desiring more things, that cost money, compared to 40 years ago.

 

[trunks2k]

That´s not quite the same, but it may give us an idea:
1994: 2.525/100.000
2012: 888/100.000
with a pretty steady decline througout the years.
Source:
http://www.ojjdp.gov/ojstatbb/ezaucr/asp/ucr_display.asp

The way I read that is juveniles had a total arrest rate of 3939 (184 violent) per 100000 in 2012 and a total arrest rate of 9146 (503 violent) per 100000 in 1994.

That matches the overall decrease in crime over the past 20 years. Crime rates peaked in, '91/'92, and we're back to crime rates similar to that of the late 60s.

 

[trunks2k]

Well, gotta say I was surprised myself. I would have expected a slight, but not dramatic increase.

Despite appearances in the media, crime rates in general have been falling steadily for 20+ years.

 

[trunks2k]

I wonder what the rate was for the 70s.

US historic crime rates per 100,000

2014: 2971.8 (total), 375.7 (violent)
1970: 3984.5 (total), 363.5 (violent)

For comparison, 1991 had a total crime and violent crime rate of 5897.8 and 731.8 respectively. The rates have nearly halved.

The closest total crime rate to 2014 was in 1967. Closest violent crime rate was 1970.

Source: http://www.disastercenter.com/crime/uscrime.htm

Crime rates rose steadily starting in 1960 (well, that's the earliest year readily available) and peaked in 91/92. Since then the total crime rate has fallen consistently almost every year (slight hiccup in 2001), while violent crime rates has been on a steady downward trend with only a couple years of seeing an increast ('04-'06 and teeny, insignificant one 2011-2012).

 

[Dave-W]

But in many cities the numbers for 2015 already surpassed the 2014 totals a few months back.

 

[trunks2k]

But in many cities the numbers for 2015 already surpassed the 2014 totals a few months back.

I haven't seen that, and I highly doubt that is the case. "A few months back" would June/July, if the total crimes had already exceeded the previous year, you would be seeing a DOUBLING of crime rate in a tiny amount of time. That's not likely. While that may happen in some locations, I highly highly doubt that it's widespread. That sort of thing would be really noticeable. It took us 20+ years to cut the crime rate in roughly half in the US, and people still think crime is rising. Can you imagine if "many cities" saw crime DOUBLE in six months?

I actually had this argument with someone about Philadelphia. I know in Philadelphia, we are ahead of pace as compared to this time last year, so 2015 may have a higher crime rate by year's end. This person was looking at the data that showed the number of crimes "to-date" in June and comparing it to the "to-date" number in 2014, while thinking it was the total for the year. In reality, it was just the number of crimes between Jan 1, 2014 and Jun 2014. While 2015 was higher, it wasn't a significant amount. Now we're further along in the year, it's not looking likely that 2015 will have an overall lower rate.

But you cannot take one year to draw conclusions. Just look at the historical data - in the past 20+ years, the trend has clearly been down despite the occasional blip.

 

[Open Heart]

I´m not that well versed in economics...but I don´t think price changes due to changes of supply and demand is what is called "inflation/deflation" in economics.

Any time prices go up it's called inflation.

 

[Dave-W]

I haven't seen that, and I highly doubt that is the case. "A few months back" would June/July, if the total crimes had already exceeded the previous year, you would be seeing a DOUBLING of crime rate in a tiny amount of time.

http://www.washingtonexaminer.com/i...-marks-100th-homicide-in-2015/article/2570667

This was from August 22:

The nation's capital marked its 100th murder of the year early Saturday morning. A Washington, D.C., man died on the 300 block of 54th Street, Northeast, at 3:17 a.m, after suffering multiple bullets wounds to his torso, NBC Washington reports.

It took the District until December in 2014 to reach this murder count. At this time last year, the city had 72 murders.

With the bleak milestone reached, Washington inches closer to the grim company of nearest major city Baltimore, Md. Long riddled with crime, especially in its west end, the Maryland port city has also seen a spiking murder rate, following riots involving police that drew national attention in late spring.

Washington's count is still comparatively modest. Baltimore's tally currently rests at 208 homicides as of Aug. 19, according to the Baltimore Sun. The two cities have nearly identical population sizes, with Baltimore at roughly 620,000 residents, and the District at 650,000.

This one is dated August 31:
http://www.nytimes.com/2015/09/01/us/murder-rates-rising-sharply-in-many-us-cities.html?_r=1

MILWAUKEE — Cities across the nation are seeing a startling rise in murders after years of declines, and few places have witnessed a shift as precipitous as this city. With the summer not yet over, 104 people have been killed this year — after 86 homicides in all of 2014.

More than 30 other cities have also reported increases in violence from a year ago. In New Orleans, 120 people had been killed by late August, compared with 98 during the same period a year earlier. In Baltimore, homicides had hit 215, up from 138 at the same point in 2014. In Washington, the toll was 105, compared with 73 people a year ago. And in St. Louis, 136 people had been killed this year, a 60 percent rise from the 85 murders the city had by the same time last year.

Law enforcement experts say disparate factors are at play in different cities, though no one is claiming to know for sure why murder rates are climbing. Some officials say intense national scrutiny of the use of force by the police has made officers less aggressive and emboldened criminals, though many experts dispute that theory.

Rivalries among organized street gangs, often over drug turf, and the availability of guns are cited as major factors in some cities, including Chicago. But more commonly, many top police officials say they are seeing a growing willingness among disenchanted young men in poor neighborhoods to use violence to settle ordinary disputes.

 

[trunks2k]

http://www.washingtonexaminer.com/i...-marks-100th-homicide-in-2015/article/2570667

That doesn't say that the number of crimes exceeded the totals from the previous year. It says.

The nation's capital marked its 100th murder of the year
....
At this time last year, the city had 72 murders.

DC had 105 murders in 2014, and indeed since the end of August it has exceeded that.

This one is dated August 31:
http://www.nytimes.com/2015/09/01/us/murder-rates-rising-sharply-in-many-us-cities.html?_r=1

Same thing... they're comparing "to-date" numbers; not totals for 2014 vs to Aug 31, 2015.
For example in this article, St Louis had 136 murders as of Aug 31, but as far as I can tell there were 173 total for 2014. So as of that date it hadn't exceeded it (currently there seems to have been 142 in 2015 as of writing this).

I'm not saying that crime or murder rates hasn't increased in certain locations. Or even that the rate change isn't drastic in some cases.

But
a.) You're only looking at murders, not total crime or even total violent crime (which is what I was giving nation wide stats for). This is sort of important because a small increase in real numbers can be a big change in rate and percent change.
b.) You're only looking at certain places, not the country as a whole. Milwaulkee which has seen a 76% rise in the murder rate according to the above article doesn't represent its own suburbs, let alone the rest of the US.

 

[Open Heart]

It has more to do with people desiring more things, that cost money, compared to 40 years ago.

You are SOOOOO right. They can desire more things all they want. Unless they have the money to buy those things, there will be no inflation. I do agree there has been more buying and less saving, and more buying on credit and then defaulting. But I also think that moving to two income families in order to make more money has largely been the culprit.

 

[Open Heart]

2014: 2971.8 (total), 375.7 (violent)
1970: 3984.5 (total), 363.5 (violent)

Oh I KNOW violence has fallen signifantly!!! It's WONDERFUL. But I was wondering about theft specifically.

 

[trunks2k]

Oh I KNOW violence has fallen signifantly!!! It's WONDERFUL. But I was wondering about theft specifically.

Theft, robbery, and burglary per 100,000 people:

2014: 1837, 102.2, 542.5
1970: 2079, 172.1, 1084
1991: 3228.8, 272, 1235

 

[Open Heart]

Theft, robbery, and burglary per 100,000 people:

2014: 1837, 102.2, 542.5
1970: 2079, 172.1, 1084
1991: 3228.8, 272, 1235

It's good that it's going down now. But it does verify the spike when my son was in school.