Shocking Minnesota Poll - Commanding lead for Newt Gingrich

[NightHawkeye]

First PPP poll for Minnesota released: http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_MN_012412.pdf

Gingrich 36%
Romney 18%
Santorum 17%
Ron Paul 13%
Undecided 15%
​

So much for the conventional wisdom that Gingrich can't pull swing-state voters ...

Plus, Romney and Santorum in virtual tie? Who knew?

 

[Autumnleaf]

Minnesota is a fluke state. They voted in Jesse Ventura for governor. They are partial to bomb throwers.

 

[NightHawkeye]

Minnesota is a fluke state. They voted in Jesse Ventura for governor. They are partial to bomb throwers.

You left out Paul Bunyon ... Fine points all ... but Minnesota delegates count the same as delegates from anywhere else.

 

[Autumnleaf]

You left out Paul Bunyon ... Fine points all ... but Minnesota delegates count the same as delegates from anywhere else.

I'm just trying to give the Newt haters some ammo. Their supplies have been running low lately.

 

[Defensor Fidei]

First PPP poll for Minnesota released: http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_MN_012412.pdf

Gingrich 36%
Romney 18%
Santorum 17%
Ron Paul 13%
Undecided 15%
Plus, Romney and Santorum in virtual tie? Who knew?​

Polling at this point is pretty useless, and just a product of uninformed voters following the national trends.
​

​

So much for the conventional wisdom that Gingrich can't pull swing-state voters ...

Gingrich can't pull swing state voters. That's fact, not just wisdom. Minnesota Republicans are the sort who elect people like Michele Bachmann, and are clearly not indicative of the state overall.

Gingrich will lose Minnesota by double-digits, and will fail to compete in the swing states.

If the GOP is stupid/evil enough to nominate Newt, that is.

 

[Autumnleaf]

Polling at this point is pretty useless, and just a product of uninformed voters following the national trends.
​

​

Gingrich can't pull swing state voters. That's fact, not just wisdom. Minnesota Republicans are the sort who elect people like Michele Bachmann, and are clearly not indicative of the state overall.

Gingrich will lose Minnesota by double-digits, and will fail to compete in the swing states.

If the GOP is stupid/evil enough to nominate Newt, that is.

The swing states, and most other states, will go to the candidate whose last name is not Obama. Its that simple, unless the economic starts roaring like mad.

 

[jayem]

Minnesota is a fluke state. They voted in Jesse Ventura for governor. They are partial to bomb throwers.

They also elected a comic to the Senate. I guess nominating an egomaniac for President is a step up.

 

[Defensor Fidei]

The swing states, and most other states, will go to the candidate whose last name is not Obama. Its that simple, unless the economic starts roaring like mad.

No, they will go to the candidate not named Gingrich if he is the nominee, as poll after poll has shown. In fact, having Newt Gingrich as the Republican nominee would turn red states into swing states.

 

[Autumnleaf]

No, they will go to the candidate not named Gingrich if he is the nominee, as poll after poll has shown. In fact, having Newt Gingrich as the Republican nominee would turn red states into swing states.

Which poll after which poll?

Newt is winning states which means he's doing something right. You might want to look at those polls for bias of one sort or another because they seem to be bunk.

 

[Defensor Fidei]

Which poll after which poll?

Newt is winning states which means he's doing something right. You might want to look at those polls for bias of one sort or another because they seem to be bunk.

No, multiple polls from multiple polling outfits all show that Newt Gingrich is completely unelectable. He gets crushed in both national polling as well as in state-by-state polling. People who have principles and values run as far as possible away from Newt Gingrich.

 

[Maren]

Why do people keep confusing Republican primaries with the General Election. Obama will win the Utah Democratic Primary but has about a ZERO chance of winning Utah in the General Election. Just like Gingrich polling just over a third of the Republican primary voters in Minnesota does not mean he has any chance of winning the state in November.

The fact is, Gingrich has the highest unfavorable rating of any candidate at the moment -- higher even than Obama's. When more than half of all registered voters have an unfavorable rating of a candidate, they have almost no chance of being elected in November.

One other note, Minnesota actually has a caucus rather than a primary and campaigns with nontraditional campaigns (such as Gingrich is running), in the past, have not done well in states with a caucus. Typically you need a strong grassroots organization in caucus states to do well in the state, something Gingrich does not have. Guess we'll see if that holds true again this year.

 

[NightHawkeye]

One other note, Minnesota actually has a caucus rather than a primary and campaigns with nontraditional campaigns (such as Gingrich is running), in the past, have not done well in states with a caucus. Typically you need a strong grassroots organization in caucus states to do well in the state, something Gingrich does not have. Guess we'll see if that holds true again this year.

For the record; pollsters take the "caucus" effect into account. Here are the caveats: http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_MN_012412.pdf

PPP surveyed 303 likely Republican caucus voters on January 21st and 22nd . The margin of error for the survey is +/-5.6%. This poll was not paid for or authorized by any campaign or political organization. PPP surveys are conducted through automated telephone interviews. PPP is a Democratic polling company, but polling expert Nate Silver of the New York Times found that its surveys in 2010 actually exhibited a slight bias toward Republican candidates.​

 

[stiggywiggy]

People who have principles and values run as far as possible away from Newt Gingrich.

Really? I'm voting for Newt, I do believe. Please tell me how that manifests the higher principles and values you have over me.

 

[sea oat]

First PPP poll for Minnesota released: http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_MN_012412.pdf

Gingrich 36%
Romney 18%
Santorum 17%
Ron Paul 13%
Undecided 15%
​

The madness never ends.

 

[NightHawkeye]

The madness never ends.

I agree. It's absolutely insane that Mitt Romney has spent all the millions he has, yet polls no better than Rick Santorum, who not only can't get no respect, but has spent very little money advertising. Weird ... just plain weird.

Who knew that money had little effect in politics? Sure not the conventional wisdom, is it?

.

 

[Chamdar]

I agree. It's absolutely insane that Mitt Romney has spent all the millions he has, yet polls no better than Rick Santorum, who not only can't get no respect, but has spent very little money advertising. Weird ... just plain weird.

Who knew that money had little effect in politics? Sure not the conventional wisdom, is it?

.

What's more insane than that is that Gingrich can attack Romney for being for a capitalist and veer to the left of the Obama administration on immigration and still have the GOP base rallying behind him.

 

[Defensor Fidei]

Really? I'm voting for Newt, I do believe. Please tell me how that manifests the higher principles and values you have over me.

Well, I suppose some people could share Newt's values of adultery, hypocrisy, and corruption. It's a question of what kind of values one has.

 

[Drekkan85]

Which poll after which poll?

Newt is winning states which means he's doing something right. You might want to look at those polls for bias of one sort or another because they seem to be bunk.

Newt is winning the republican PRIMARIES in states. A primary constituency is NOT a general election constituency. In fact, there's a lot of data that shows that doing great in a primary can actually be a hindrance in a general election (look at the last California Governor election that Davis won - there were two possible Republican candidates, a moderate that WOULD have won the election for sure, and a die hard right-winger. Davis actually bought ads supporting the die hard. Die hard won the primary, and as a result lost the election to a VERY unpopular governor).

Primaries demand firebrand ideologues. General election demand milquetoast moderates.

 

[Drekkan85]

Really? I'm voting for Newt, I do believe. Please tell me how that manifests the higher principles and values you have over me.

You approve of divorcing a wife that's on her deathbed of cancer to marry someone who you will divorce once you find out she has MS and won't let you have an open marriage with a woman you've had a 6 year affair with that's half your age?

Apparently I totally missed the class in confirmation lessons that said "Adultery - thumbs up".

 

[Sweet Tea]

I will not be giving my vote to fig newton.