Probability your religion is true?

[Quid est Veritas?]

The historic probability for Jesus of Nazareth having lived, been baptised by John and crucified under Pontius Pilate is extremely high.

For His resurrection, this is very high if you trust the gospels as sources, but much lower if you doubt them.

The crucifixion and resurrection of Christ is of course the lynchpin of Christianity. As I have found the argument for Christ compelling, I hold a high percentage of probability in the truth of Christianity, else I wouldn't be a Christian. Other religions or Atheism would be far easier for me to swallow, but I would not consider them true though.

CS Lewis makes a good argument where he says if you take a page that someone says is the missing key point in a novel and you compare it to the rest; if it enriches and brings out new meaning in everything else written there, it likely is. If it is discordant or not associated with the rest of the narrative, it is likely wrong. To me Christ is that missing page that solves the conundrums of dying gods, human nature, morality etc. So I find the probability that Christianity is true very high indeed; so high in fact that even when I doubt I feel it more likely than not.

 

[Cearbhall]

So I'm curious what probabilities you might give that your religion is true.

My religion is much more about promoting the journey towards truth:

We do not have to check our personal background and beliefs at the door: we join together on a journey that honors everywhere we’ve been before.

Our beliefs are diverse and inclusive. We have no shared creed. Our shared covenant (our seven Principles) supports “the free and responsible search for truth and meaning.”
​

http://www.uua.org/beliefs/what-we-believe

 

[Jack of Spades]

Here is the scorecard so far.


Sidenote: Not all study subjects provided a percentage estimate, but instead a verbally stated estimate.

Username
Faith
EOHLTTTKTT - Indicator (Estimation Of How Likely They Think They Know The Truth)


@Aryeh Jay
Judaism
42%

@redblue22
Methodist
>90%

@Jack of Spades
Seeker
5-30%

@yeshuaslavejeff
Anabaptist
100%

@awitch
Pagan
"probability of truth is quite low"

@BeStill&Know
Christian
"is proven to be right by common sense archeology and other sciences"


- I believe that the study so far clearly shows that Christians seem to have by average much higher EOHLTTTKTT - values than the people practicing non-Christian faiths do. Another curious phenomenon is that the two pagan-related faiths on the list (awitch is a pagan and I am paganism-influenced myself) occupy the bottom slots on the EOHLTTTKTT scale.

 

[cloudyday2]

... To me Christ is that missing page that solves the conundrums of dying gods, human nature, morality etc. So I find the probability that Christianity is true very high indeed; so high in fact that even when I doubt I feel it more likely than not.

Interesting... For me those are not problems that I worry about. The question I want to answer is "what is my purpose?" I get depressed frequently, so I often need to convince myself that I do have a purpose - even if I'm fuzzy about what that purpose might be. That is where believing in God helps me. The story of Jesus dying on a cross for my salvation seems absurd to me. The idea of going to heaven is not appealing either. But the hope that God somehow values my finite Earthly life is often very helpful.

 

[cloudyday2]

...
- I believe that the study so far clearly shows that Christians seem to have by average much higher EOHLTTTKTT - values than the people practicing non-Christian faiths do. Another curious phenomenon is that the two pagan-related faiths on the list (awitch is a pagan and I am paganism-influenced myself) occupy the bottom slots on the EOHLTTTKTT scale.

I wonder how I would have answered this question when I was a doubting Christian in college and more recently when I was a mildly psychotic Christian. I honestly don't think I ever would have claimed to be very certain about Christianity except when I was a child and when I was frequently hallucinating things that seemed to confirm Christianity. The doubts I had in college were not that uncommon, so I'm surprised that so few Christian members have these kinds of doubts.

 

[Jack of Spades]

I wonder how I would have answered this question when I was a doubting Christian in college and more recently when I was a mildly psychotic Christian. I honestly don't think I ever would have claimed to be very certain about Christianity except when I was a child and when I was frequently hallucinating things that seemed to confirm Christianity. The doubts I had in college were not that uncommon, so I'm surprised that so few Christian members have these kinds of doubts.

It's also a church-cultural question I think whether doubts can be brought up.

Some Christian denominations are more accepting of doubting than others. Over here, Lutherans talk freely about their doubts but Pentecostals play the role of having supercharged faith all the time. Just for one example.

 

[Neophyte365]

Interesting... For me those are not problems that I worry about. The question I want to answer is "what is my purpose?" I get depressed frequently, so I often need to convince myself that I do have a purpose - even if I'm fuzzy about what that purpose might be. That is where believing in God helps me. The story of Jesus dying on a cross for my salvation seems absurd to me. The idea of going to heaven is not appealing either. But the hope that God somehow values my finite Earthly life is often very helpful.

Hi cloudyday,

Your life certainly has purpose. Does a tree have purpose? Setting aside the question of teleology, in some sense we all have to agree that it does. Trees grow, provide oxygen, shade, fruit, etc. They are necessary for other things to keep going, including humans.

Trees are useful to the rest of nature. And you are also a part of nature. Thinking of ourselves as separate from nature because of our consciousness is a common mistake. But you are a part of nature as much as a tree is, so your purpose is also to be useful to the rest of nature (the universe, the cosmos, God, etc). Merely by existing you are serving the universe's "agenda." And by harmonizing your will with nature and what I would call the "rational flow of life," you can enjoy your purposefulness as a human.

Your post struck a chord with me because I have also struggled with depression for many years, and I didn't feel fulfilled until I started to seriously study philosophy. (Medication also helped.)

 

[Quid est Veritas?]

Interesting... For me those are not problems that I worry about. The question I want to answer is "what is my purpose?" I get depressed frequently, so I often need to convince myself that I do have a purpose - even if I'm fuzzy about what that purpose might be. That is where believing in God helps me. The story of Jesus dying on a cross for my salvation seems absurd to me. The idea of going to heaven is not appealing either. But the hope that God somehow values my finite Earthly life is often very helpful.

This sounds like you seem to have frequent existential crises.
The problem is that once you reach the point to search for meaning, you are faced with only a few options. If you are not religious, you are an existential nihilist and this leaves you either:
1. seeking Distraction to not think about the quotidian struggle for some form of meaning;
2. Commit suicide or are driven toward suicidality
3. Embrace the Absurd, the ultimate pointlessness while functioning as if there is one in your daily life.

If you are religious, you can find meaning in God. This is Paschal vs. Camus in a nutshell.

I myself take much faith in the fact that "All is Vanity" as Ecclesiastes says, for it reminds me that these things too will pass, I will be forgotten on Earth, but God endures.
I used to be a Philosophic Nihilist when I was an Atheist, embracing the Absurd I told myself, playing the game of life which mattered while I played but be pointless once I died. In the end, I realised that the concept of the Absurd is itself absurd.

 

[Quid est Veritas?]

Here is the scorecard so far.


Sidenote: Not all study subjects provided a percentage estimate, but instead a verbally stated estimate.

Username
Faith
EOHLTTTKTT - Indicator (Estimation Of How Likely They Think They Know The Truth)


@Aryeh Jay
Judaism
42%

@redblue22
Methodist
>90%

@Jack of Spades
Seeker
5-30%

@yeshuaslavejeff
Anabaptist
100%

@awitch
Pagan
"probability of truth is quite low"

@BeStill&Know
Christian
"is proven to be right by common sense archeology and other sciences"


- I believe that the study so far clearly shows that Christians seem to have by average much higher EOHLTTTKTT - values than the people practicing non-Christian faiths do. Another curious phenomenon is that the two pagan-related faiths on the list (awitch is a pagan and I am paganism-influenced myself) occupy the bottom slots on the EOHLTTTKTT scale.

Basically you are saying Christians believe their faith to be true. Seems like this is a good point in favour of it, no?

I have often found some Neopagans not overly serious about their religion. They freely admit it being a modern construction, deify people like Jim Morrison or fictional Anime characters or frame it as Jungian Archetypes or whatever. I don't mean to offend anyone, but such Neopagans I feel are functionally not-religious, but seem to treat it as a club or activity. I sympathise with this a bit, as back when I was an atheist I made toasts to Jupiter Optimus Maximus or Mars Ultor based on my strong love of Roman history and I can easily see myself having attended Roman inspired Neopagan events at that stage. However I would never have believed it.

Now though, I leave it again to CS Lewis:

"I believe in Christianity as I believe the sun has risen. Not only because I see it, but because by it I see everything else"

 

[Arthra]

It seems to me that "belief" in a religion is the decision to behave as though that religion is true. A person might reason that a religion is 5% likely to be true, but that same person might decide to "believe" that religion - i.e. live according to that religion. This is similar to when a person places a large bet on a horse to win after studying all the statistics. In addition, most people don't behave as though their religion is true all the time; most people will only stick their necks out so far. This is similar to how much a person is willing to bet on their chosen horse. So I'm curious what probabilities you might give that your religion is true.

In my case the Baha'i Faith is fairly new ... a little over a hundred and seventy years old. The Central Figures of the Faith lived in "real" time and there are records from various sources attesting to Them.. where They lived ..who They encountered and so on... Moreover the Writings of these Personages have been preserved and are available for study.

The teachings relate to challenges we all face in our world now such as issues relating to the disparity between wealth and poverty, oppression of people because of their skin color, religion, sex or class. The need for universal education. The need we have for a stable world free from war... the need for a representative world parliament and an international court of arbitration to end war. The need women have for equal opportunities in the work place, education and to be considered full citizens....

 

[redblue22]

Interesting... For me those are not problems that I worry about. The question I want to answer is "what is my purpose?" I get depressed frequently, so I often need to convince myself that I do have a purpose - even if I'm fuzzy about what that purpose might be. That is where believing in God helps me. The story of Jesus dying on a cross for my salvation seems absurd to me. The idea of going to heaven is not appealing either. But the hope that God somehow values my finite Earthly life is often very helpful.

(hug)

 

[cloudyday2]

...The Central Figures of the Faith lived in "real" time and there are records from various sources attesting to Them.. where They lived ..who They encountered and so on... Moreover the Writings of these Personages have been preserved and are available for study.

The teachings relate to challenges we all face in our world now...

That is an interesting point. You seem to be saying that Bahai don't believe anything that couldn't be found in a history book or a UN wish list. Therefore, you don't need to admit to having any doubts about your religion.

What I notice as a non-Bahai is capitalized words like "Central Figures", "Faith", "Writings", "Personages".

I think Bahai believe things that are not obvious, so what percentage would you give for Bahai beliefs?

 

[cloudyday2]

This sounds like you seem to have frequent existential crises.
The problem is that once you reach the point to search for meaning, you are faced with only a few options. If you are not religious, you are an existential nihilist and this leaves you either:
1. seeking Distraction to not think about the quotidian struggle for some form of meaning;
2. Commit suicide or are driven toward suicidality
3. Embrace the Absurd, the ultimate pointlessness while functioning as if there is one in your daily life.

If you are religious, you can find meaning in God. This is Paschal vs. Camus in a nutshell.

I myself take much faith in the fact that "All is Vanity" as Ecclesiastes says, for it reminds me that these things too will pass, I will be forgotten on Earth, but God endures.
I used to be a Philosophic Nihilist when I was an Atheist, embracing the Absurd I told myself, playing the game of life which mattered while I played but be pointless once I died. In the end, I realised that the concept of the Absurd is itself absurd.

In my case there is one other salve I apply when I feel depressed. I change my focus to the very close proximity. For example, I think about my cat or my elderly mother, and the small benefits I can provide to them in my life. Sometimes I like to think about a story I heard of Jews in a concentration camp singing a Jewish hymn as they walked together to their deaths. We all face the same uncertainty and problems, but we can improve our situation through showing some empathy for our neighbors that are likely feeling the same things.

You have a good summary of the problem and solutions in your post.

 

[cloudyday2]

Hi cloudyday,

Your life certainly has purpose. Does a tree have purpose? Setting aside the question of teleology, in some sense we all have to agree that it does. Trees grow, provide oxygen, shade, fruit, etc. They are necessary for other things to keep going, including humans.

Trees are useful to the rest of nature. And you are also a part of nature. Thinking of ourselves as separate from nature because of our consciousness is a common mistake. But you are a part of nature as much as a tree is, so your purpose is also to be useful to the rest of nature (the universe, the cosmos, God, etc). Merely by existing you are serving the universe's "agenda." And by harmonizing your will with nature and what I would call the "rational flow of life," you can enjoy your purposefulness as a human.

Your post struck a chord with me because I have also struggled with depression for many years, and I didn't feel fulfilled until I started to seriously study philosophy. (Medication also helped.)

Thanks, @Neophyte365
That is another approach that I have heard for feeling purpose in life. I would describe it as an awareness of pantheism, but I might misunderstand you. I feel that way sometimes when I am in nature. Sometimes I feel like I want to freeze time and notice every detail of every blade of grass ... or something like that.

 

[GrowingSmaller]

Not sure how appropriate probablistic resoning is to a God but here goes:

heres my argument from probablity. Even if its only minutely likely that God exists, then He does.

If compared to the likeliness of rain, then also if one accpets that Gods existence is an all of the time or none of the time affair (binary yeas or no scenario) . And if also we catch a "glimpse" so to speak, a 1% chance of God, then he's possible. And if he's possible (if knowledge of is even minutely possible) then as a necessary being - "I am that I am" - he must exist.

So even a "Cloudy with a 1% chance of God" leads to certainty!!!


Like if theres a drop of rain then water must exist. It may not rain all of the time, but if God is than he is always and forever...

 

[redblue22]

I think the percentage changes at different times.

 

[cloudyday2]

I think the percentage changes at different times.

That is very true for me. Sometimes I think a God must exist and other times I think not.

 

[cloudyday2]

Not sure how appropriate probablistic resoning is to a God but here goes:

heres my argument from probablity. Even if its only minutely likely that God exists, then He does.

If compared to the likeliness of rain, then also if one accpets that Gods existence is an all of the time or none of the time affair (binary yeas or no scenario) . And if also we catch a "glimpse" so to speak, a 1% chance of God, then he's possible. And if he's possible (if knowledge of is even minutely possible) then as a necessary being - "I am that I am" - he must exist.

So even a "Cloudy with a 1% chance of God" leads to certainty!!!


Like if theres a drop of rain then water must exist. It may not rain all of the time, but if God is than he is always and forever...

I don't understand your reasoning. Are you saying that because the word "God" exists in our vocabulary then God must exist? I think Nietzsche said that humans will not be able to fully disbelieve in God unless our language changes to eliminate the concept.

 

[CrystalDragon]

This sounds like you seem to have frequent existential crises.
The problem is that once you reach the point to search for meaning, you are faced with only a few options. If you are not religious, you are an existential nihilist and this leaves you either:
1. seeking Distraction to not think about the quotidian struggle for some form of meaning;
2. Commit suicide or are driven toward suicidality
3. Embrace the Absurd, the ultimate pointlessness while functioning as if there is one in your daily life.

If you are religious, you can find meaning in God. This is Paschal vs. Camus in a nutshell.

I myself take much faith in the fact that "All is Vanity" as Ecclesiastes says, for it reminds me that these things too will pass, I will be forgotten on Earth, but God endures.
I used to be a Philosophic Nihilist when I was an Atheist, embracing the Absurd I told myself, playing the game of life which mattered while I played but be pointless once I died. In the end, I realised that the concept of the Absurd is itself absurd.

I feel like that's a very negative way of looking at it.

People who are agnostic or atheist still find meaning in their lives without becoming depressed or suicidal. They simply do what everyone else strives to do: find something they like doing in life and pursuing as their happiness. Saying "the religious have God as their purpose and non-religious have nothing so suicide is one of their only options" is a really entitled way of looking at it.

 

[Jack of Spades]

Basically you are saying Christians believe their faith to be true. Seems like this is a good point in favour of it, no?

It could be either way. It could mean Christians have a special faith, or it could mean Christians simply being arrogant. So, are the others much more unsure about their faith, or are they simply more realistic and humble? It's a curious phenomenon.

I think that to get more accurate answers, you should compare Christianity to some religion that has the same characteristics. Islam would be a good one, because it's exclusive and there is a hell too.

I have often found some Neopagans not overly serious about their religion. They freely admit it being a modern construction, deify people like Jim Morrison or fictional Anime characters or frame it as Jungian Archetypes or whatever. I don't mean to offend anyone, but such Neopagans I feel are functionally not-religious, but seem to treat it as a club or activity.

True. But there is no one neopaganism, there are like 100 different subcultures and versions of it. Some of them are deeply devout with their spiritual practices, not unlike Christian monks etc. and for some others it's a little more than an RPG. And everything inbetween. It's really a "make your own way" - religion, and that includes lots and lots of variety.

I'd like to also note that the non-serious pagans don't have very much social pressure to play the role of being very serious with their faith, as non-serious mentality is more accepted. So one could argue that there are tons of Christians with the same mindset but they just don't say it out due to fear of being judged and just shut up about it, or play the role of being more devout than they are.

I have personally encountered enough pagans who are genuinely serious about their faith to consider paganism to be a serious religion, despite of the "fluffies" on the outer rim of it.

I sympathise with this a bit, as back when I was an atheist I made toasts to Jupiter Optimus Maximus or Mars Ultor based on my strong love of Roman history and I can easily see myself having attended Roman inspired Neopagan events at that stage. However I would never have believed it.

What you describe here is treating paganism as a cultural religion, not unlike many people practice Christianity. Taken this way, it's practiced as a tradition, not so much as a supernatural religion. As Neopaganism is very vague and diverse religion, such an approach is generally (in my experience) seen as a valid way to practice paganism among other ways.