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Probability and Creation

Oafman

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Yes, the Drake Equation proves the impossible odds associated with such a theory.
The Drake Equation suggests the odds are long, not impossible. We know it's not impossible because we're having this conversation. Also, given that we have so little reliable data to plug into it, Drake is little more than a guide of what we need to learn.

Not to mention the entire absence of evidence.
Is that evidence of absence? The religious rarely think so, for obvious reasons!

I know of only one planet where;
You've only looked at planets orbiting one solitary star.

A question comes to mind; do you ever think it might be somewhat self-absorbed to believe that the universe is all for us?
 
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JacksBratt

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And if those events hadn't occured, we wouldn't be here. So?

And what caused this big bang, where did the matter come from, where did the energy come from?


Either it had to be here in the first place, forever and ever and ever.... but it would still have to come from somewhere.

Or, it came into existence, being, arrived, was created.... in order for it to be here and attend the big bang.

It is still the blank at the beginning of the theory. Matter, energy, light, life...... all had to be here for evolution to take place. You still have no explanation for any of it. Where and when did it come from.

Then, add to it that without oxygen, life would be killed by the radiation from the sun without the protection of an ozone layer, and with oxygen they would have oxidized away and not exist?
 
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Oafman

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It is still the blank at the beginning of the theory. Matter, energy, light, life...... all had to be here for evolution to take place. You still have no explanation for any of it. Where and when did it come from.
Nobody knows, including you. The FSM is as good an explanation as has ever been suggested (they're all equally bad).

But the big problem with the idea that the FSM created the universe is, who made the pasta in the first place? Does this problem sound familiar?
 
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JacksBratt

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Nobody knows, including you. The FSM is as good an explanation as has ever been suggested (they're all equally bad).

But the big problem with the idea that the FSM created the universe is, who made the pasta in the first place? Does this problem sound familiar?


Its the same for everyone.

However, the painting saying "where did the paint and canvas come from"? is far different than saying where did the artist come from. The artist is in a totally different realm.

God is outside of the time space continuum. He is not confined to what came when or existed when or how.... He IS. He always WAS. Our human, universe confined knowledge and science has no affect, bearing, logic on the realm or dimension where He exists, existed or will exist. We are infinitely incapable of comprehension of His dimension, realm and capabilities within it.
 
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Winepress777

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The Drake Equation suggests the odds are long, not impossible. We know it's not impossible because we're having this conversation. Also, given that we have so little reliable data to plug into it, Drake is little more than a guide of what we need to learn.


Is that evidence of absence? The religious rarely think so, for obvious reasons!


You've only looked at planets orbiting one solitary star.

A question comes to mind; do you ever think it might be somewhat self-absorbed to believe that the universe is all for us?
Perhaps you need some studying up on the Drake Equation. (And to snuff your second point, again, yes, absence of evidence amongst ANY star system, including THIS one, including binary star systems, as though that has anything to do with it, especially considering the bizarre conditions surrounding such systems)
And finally, no. Recognizing probabilities and facts and scriptures leaves no room for "self-absorbtion". That is just a mindless straw man argument.

The Drake Equation... you tell me the chances here...
P=FpNhFlFiFc

...the Probability (P) that intelligent life could "evolve" in any star system...
Which in itself makes it impossible, since the theory of evolution has no merit, lacking empirical evidence in totality. It is only a "blind faith" religion of the atheists. but we'll play along anyway as if it WERE possible, which is the only manner in which the Drake Equation can even form up...
...(P) is as a function of the probability that the star/s will have planets in the habitable zone, and that even simple life has spontaneously formed on that planet. And let's consider THAT probability...
..."Life" at it's lowest form, and hence the beginning of a "presumed" evolution, is a protein molecule of the "ninth configuration". (Scientists have been attempting to create that for decades...). To then suggest that one could be formed in the chance environmental conditions of countless combinations of possibilities I.E. Temperature, pressure, humidity, chemicals, gravity, radiation etc etc. This is the first (P).
Then, the (P) that a protein molecule could randomly burst into existence in such an environment, and THEN begin to "evolve" vertically into compound life... again, no evidence, no known manner of knowing or proving since it has never been observed in any fashion...
...and THEN the probability that this supposed "intelligent life" that developed could or would develop to a point of attempting interstellar communication... AND within the five or so billion years scientists claim, would THEN do so in the extremely short cosmic time zone of our existence. We won't even go into the impossibilities of light travel or time travel where such contact with us could occur...
It is as easy and fruitless to guess of the probability of any ONE of these (and myriads more) probabilities as much as another, to where a mind of rational and learning recognizes that it is IMPOSSIBLE to hope that any of these miniscule probabilities can dominoe one into another successfully to produce aliens, the popular fiction of movies books and tv.
In full effect then we are left with our own guessing and blind unfounded belief (scientific religion I call it) in establishing any "reality" to our hopes of this far fetched nonsense.
So that's why I gave you God's Word on it earlier.
And here also, notice only one planet being spoke of;

(Isa 45:18) For thus saith the LORD that created the heavens; God himself that formed the earth and made it; he hath established it, he created it not in vain, he formed it to be inhabited: I am the LORD; and there is none else.

Peace in Christ our Lord
 
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Oafman

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Its the same for everyone.

However, the painting saying "where did the paint and canvas come from"? is far different than saying where did the artist come from. The artist is in a totally different realm.

God is outside of the time space continuum. He is not confined to what came when or existed when or how.... He IS. He always WAS. Our human, universe confined knowledge and science has no affect, bearing, logic on the realm or dimension where He exists, existed or will exist. We are infinitely incapable of comprehension of His dimension, realm and capabilities within it.
So is the FSM.

I'm sorry, but unless you can show me evidence to the contrary, I thik you've made up all of that.
 
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paulm50

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Yes, the Drake Equation proves the impossible odds associated with such a theory. Not to mention the entire absence of evidence.

But more importantly we can know this;
I know of only one planet where;

(Gen 1:2) And the earth was without form, and void; and darkness was upon the face of the deep. And the Spirit of God moved upon the face of the waters.

On this ONE planet alone did this happen also;

(1Jn 4:9) In this was manifested the love of God toward us, because that God sent his only begotten Son into the world, that we might live through him.

Anything else has no value to pursue, for one who receives Christ will be given to know all things, so the effort to know more now is moot and an exercise in futility
And yet science is proving all the steps that took place over 14 billions years. Proving beyond reasonable doubt life evolved and disproving the bible. Even the notion of Cain and Abel being farmers is nonsense.

So the son of god couldn't of got off the cross, told Pilot he was the son of god, made him kneel down to him. Then gone to the centre of power, Rome, and started converting people who really mattered.

He died and we carried on sinning. That's why I'm sceptical of the written word. Men have a habit of siining and men wrote the bible.

As for finding life elsewhere in the Universe. That's a tough one.

Taking the 14 billion years and compressing it to a day.


It will help you understand the problem. We are a few seconds of enough intelligence to build mud huts, a micro second to developing electricity, and how far away from destroying the only chance we have of continuing to live here?

So waiting for them to contact us, or us to find them. There are likely prospects, planets like earth.
 
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Winepress777

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And yet science is proving all the steps that took place over 14 billions years. Proving beyond reasonable doubt life evolved and disproving the bible. Even the notion of Cain and Abel being farmers is nonsense.

So the son of god couldn't of got off the cross, told Pilot he was the son of god, made him kneel down to him. Then gone to the centre of power, Rome, and started converting people who really mattered.

He died and we carried on sinning. That's why I'm sceptical of the written word. Men have a habit of siining and men wrote the bible.

As for finding life elsewhere in the Universe. That's a tough one.

Taking the 14 billion years and compressing it to a day.


It will help you understand the problem. We are a few seconds of enough intelligence to build mud huts, a micro second to developing electricity, and how far away from destroying the only chance we have of continuing to live here?

So waiting for them to contact us, or us to find them. There are likely prospects, planets like earth.
Lol, what?? Are you a Christian? You carry on sinning? The Gospel means nothing to you? You reject the righteous Spirit of Holiness of Christ in you? Then blame it on Jesus? Then reject the written Word!? Seriously?? You need to get on your knees my friend.
 
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paulm50

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Lol, what?? Are you a Christian? You carry on sinning? The Gospel means nothing to you? You reject the righteous Spirit of Holiness of Christ in you? Then blame it on Jesus? Then reject the written Word!? Seriously?? You need to get on your knees my friend.
I'm a Christian in so much as I try to live my life the way Jesus wanted us to.

No not me, I try to not sin, that was a reference to Man sinning.

Parts of the Gospels mean a lot to me. I accept they were compiled by men who had their own agenda and it's now proven they rejected some Gospels of people who knew Jesus first hand.

Iv don't blame Jesus, I realise he was just a very good man. If he were the son of god, then yes I would blame him for not making sure we stopped sinning and the last 2,000 years of genocide and religious wars.

I always question the written word. Especially when it's so wrong, like Genesis and Exodus.

If there's a heaven, I will be safe given the life I've led against the life of many claiming to know what god wanted. But as I don't believe. No need to kneel.

You can't deny the different religious books have been used to control and kill people. You can't possible live your life according to the OT. Or you would likely be in prison for murder. There are too many commands to execute people.

And that Jesus wanted the old rules kept, that I reject, and Paul wanted them altered.
 
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Oafman

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Perhaps you need some studying up on the Drake Equation.
The equation itself is very straightforward. It's some of the variables that are tricky!

(And to snuff your second point, again, yes, absence of evidence amongst ANY star system, including THIS one, including binary star systems, as though that has anything to do with it, especially considering the bizarre conditions surrounding such systems)
I'm unclear what you mean. As for 'THIS one' (our solar system), it is the only star system we know of where there is not an absence of evidence! Coincidentally, it's also the only one we've examined in any detail.

And finally, no. Recognizing probabilities and facts and scriptures leaves no room for "self-absorbtion". That is just a mindless straw man argument.
It's not a straw man, because it's your view, whether or not you realise. We thought we were special, and separate from the other species, before we learned otherwise. We thought the sun was special, and have only recently learned just how common such stars are. We thought our planet was special, but almost everywhere we're starting to look, there are habitable zone planets. We're on an unremarkable planet orbiting an unremarkable star on an unremarkable arm of an unremarkable galaxy. One of billions of galaxies. And you believe it all exists for your benefit. That is nothing if not self-absorbed.
 
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Oafman

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the theory of evolution has no merit, lacking empirical evidence in totality. It is only a "blind faith" religion of the atheists.
And of the majority of Christians!

The Drake Equation... you tell me the chances here...
P=FpNhFlFiFc
I don't recognise this probability based version. The equation I've seen calculates the number of civilizations with broadcasting potential, not any probability. Wikipedia has it as follows:

24b31e87c6c617382237ab57357bd539.png

where:
N = the number of civilizations in our galaxy with which radio-communication might be possible (i.e. which are on our current past light cone);

R* = the average rate of star formation in our galaxy
fp = the fraction of those stars that have planets
ne = the average number of planets that can potentially support life per star that has planets
fl = the fraction of planets that could support life that actually develop life at some point
fi = the fraction of planets with life that actually go on to develop intelligent life (civilizations)
fc = the fraction of civilizations that develop a technology that releases detectable signs of their existence into space
L = the length of time for which such civilizations release detectable signals into space[8]


I'm not convinced that there's much value in trying to plug in the variables of the Drake equation, there's too much uncertainty. "The importance of the Drake Equation is not in the solving, but rather in the contemplation"

But where it gets interesting is, given the number of planets in our galaxy, it becomes hard to find any set of estimates of those variables which ends up with one. N generally comes out pretty big. So in fact, it's not as you claim that the Drake equation shows we're alone, it's the opposite.

Which brings us to the Fermi Paradox. I enjoyed reading this essay recently, which examines the Fermi Paradox without getting too technical:

The Fermi Paradox
 
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OldWiseGuy

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So all the imperfections, bad things and nastiness, are god's fault.

I always thought so. o_O

And that would explain the imperfect world. It never stops erupting, cracking, blizzards, droughts, tsunamis, plagues, hurricane, cyclones, even the occasional asteroid.

Romans 8 'splains it,

18 "For I reckon that the sufferings of this present time are not worthy to be compared with the glory which shall be revealed in us.

19 For the earnest expectation of the creature waiteth for the manifestation of the sons of God.

20 For the creature was made subject to vanity, not willingly, but by reason of him who hath subjected the same in hope,

21 Because the creature itself also shall be delivered from the bondage of corruption into the glorious liberty of the children of God.

22 For we know that the whole creation groaneth and travaileth in pain together until now.

23 And not only they, but ourselves also, which have the firstfruits of the Spirit, even we ourselves groan within ourselves, waiting for the adoption, to wit, the redemption of our body."
 
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JacksBratt

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Winepress777 said:
"the theory of evolution has no merit, lacking empirical evidence in totality. It is only a "blind faith" religion of the atheists."

Oafman said:
"And of the majority of Christians!"

Firstly, it matters little who believes a lie and how many their number. Winepress is right, and the number of people who believe otherwise, or their testimony to other beliefs is a mute point.

I see this often. Someone discrediting the TOE and the response from the opposition is that "many Christians believe the TOE" I question these peoples understanding and theology as well as their faith in their creator.
 
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JacksBratt

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I'm a Christian in so much as I try to live my life the way Jesus wanted us to.

No not me, I try to not sin, that was a reference to Man sinning.

Parts of the Gospels mean a lot to me. I accept they were compiled by men who had their own agenda and it's now proven they rejected some Gospels of people who knew Jesus first hand.

Iv don't blame Jesus, I realise he was just a very good man. If he were the son of god, then yes I would blame him for not making sure we stopped sinning and the last 2,000 years of genocide and religious wars.

I always question the written word. Especially when it's so wrong, like Genesis and Exodus.

If there's a heaven, I will be safe given the life I've led against the life of many claiming to know what god wanted. But as I don't believe. No need to kneel.

You can't deny the different religious books have been used to control and kill people. You can't possible live your life according to the OT. Or you would likely be in prison for murder. There are too many commands to execute people.

And that Jesus wanted the old rules kept, that I reject, and Paul wanted them altered.

I asked you this once before. I am not saying that your not a Christian, however I am asking what is the basis for claiming you are. Based on your posts here, you disbelieve the Bible as truth, you seem to see Jesus as just a man, at one point you stated that you hope there is a God or think there is (can't remember the wording).

My claim to being a Christian is a solid belief in Jesus as the Son of God who died and rose again, the total belief that the Bible is true and, in fact it is Truth, it was written by the hands of men but inspired by God, and that the only way to heaven is through the belief in the Christ as our savior, His gift of salvation through His blood, the acceptance and receiving of this salvation ONLY by admitting my sins to Him, asking for His forgiveness, accepting His forgiveness, and living my life, daily, from that point on, with His will as my goal, and my every action to glorify Him and His mission.

I am curious as to your outlook on your salvation and claim to being a Christian.
 
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JacksBratt

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So is the FSM.

I'm sorry, but unless you can show me evidence to the contrary, I thik you've made up all of that.

LOL, I had to look up what the "FSM" was.....:laughing:

But, no, I didn't make it all up. I know, I know... the evidence thing. Is that road not beat to dust?
 
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OldWiseGuy

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LOL, I had to look up what the "FSM" was.....:laughing:

But, no, I didn't make it all up. I know, I know... the evidence thing. Is that road not beat to dust?

What does the Federated States of Micronesia have to do with anything? :scratch:
 
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Oafman

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Winepress777 said:
"the theory of evolution has no merit, lacking empirical evidence in totality. It is only a "blind faith" religion of the atheists."

Oafman said:
"And of the majority of Christians!"

Firstly, it matters little who believes a lie and how many their number. Winepress is right, and the number of people who believe otherwise, or their testimony to other beliefs is a mute point.

I see this often. Someone discrediting the TOE and the response from the opposition is that "many Christians believe the TOE" I question these peoples understanding and theology as well as their faith in their creator.
I only cite the fact that the majority of Christians accept evolution in response to the claim that it somehow 'belongs to atheists' ("religion of the atheists" etc).

You are right that the number of people who believe something does not impact on its validity. Evolution stands up on its own, it doesn't require the support of anyone. But acceptance of evolution is not 'an atheist thing', it's a rational thing.
 
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JacksBratt

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I only cite the fact that the majority of Christians accept evolution in response to the claim that it somehow 'belongs to atheists' ("religion of the atheists" etc).

You are right that the number of people who believe something does not impact on its validity. Evolution stands up on its own, it doesn't require the support of anyone. But acceptance of evolution is not 'an atheist thing', it's a rational thing.


I understand that nobody "owns" the belief in evolution. The TOE is woven throughout all aspects of the world we live in. Even to the extent that people in some professions, education facilities, and institutions, just regurgitate the aspects of this bogus belief in order to satisfy the higher office and then carry on their lives regardless.
It may "stand on it's own" for you, but the whole reason that this sub-forum exists is due to the fact that many sit on one side of the fence and many on the other.
 
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Oafman

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I understand that nobody "owns" the belief in evolution. The TOE is woven throughout all aspects of the world we live in. Even to the extent that people in some professions, education facilities, and institutions, just regurgitate the aspects of this bogus belief in order to satisfy the higher office and then carry on their lives regardless.
It may "stand on it's own" for you, but the whole reason that this sub-forum exists is due to the fact that many sit on one side of the fence and many on the other.
It doesn't stand on it's own 'for me'. It stands on it's own, period. We accept the validity of evolution because of the mountains of evidence which support it, and the countless predictions it has made which have all been proved correct.

Acceptance of evolution is not an opinion. It's a rational conclusion. That we have a forum to debate it is simply a product of peoples' irrationality, and of poor education.
 
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