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Poll results published by the Washington Examiner

Godsunworthyservant

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What are y'alls thoughts about this poll conducted by The Heartland Institute/Rasmussen.
I feel that one must look at these "polls" in context. First, I look at who has done the poll. In this case, it's from the Heartland Institute. The Heartland Institute is well know for their far right leanings and has publicly rejected climate change and the negative health impacts of smoking. They are infamously known for their unabomber billboard, which featured a picture of Ted Kaczynski (the unabomber) with the caption "I still believe in global warming, do you?" They pulled two more featuring Charles Manson and Fidel Castro but defended the campaign with the statement "the most prominent advocates of global warming aren't scientists. They are murderers, tyrants, and madmen.", which of course is an inherently false statement. So, for me, their resume doesn't inspire confidence in this poll unless I can find reliable sources that corroborate the findings. I have searched and can find none. To the contrary, I find the vast majority of reliable sources totally refute the idea of widespread fraud.

The next thing I look at is the poll itself. How was it conducted, and most importantly, how many participants were questioned. This poll was a mainly an internet opt-in poll which are notoriously the least reliable according to most sources. Pew did a poll where they found that as high as 90% of people took the poll multiple times (since there's no way for an internet poll to tell). It also found that up to 80% gave multiple non-sequitur answers and that up to 70% of supposedly US polls were answered from IPs in foreign countries. As for the number of participants, I couldn't find where they publicly listed that. (most polls publish that data) So, the analytics don't really inspire my confidence.

Then we have to look at what others say. I found that every reliable source I can find who studied the claims in depth found that there was no basis in fact for widespread fraud claims. . I'll quote a few facts from the Heritage Foundation Voter Fraud Study. The Heritage Foundation is another conservative think tank who has published what may well be one of the most comprehensive studies on voter fraud ever undertaken. They have done an exhaustive study of state by state cases. Here are just a couple of representative examples. In Texas, from 2005 to 2022, they found a total of 103 verified cases out of 107 million votes cast during that same period. Only 6 were related to the 2020 election. In Arizona, of 3.3 million votes cast, they found only 4 verified cases of fraud. So, other polls from reputable sources show that voter fraud is very rare. The other thing I found telling was that when Texas Lt. Governor Dan Patrick offered up to $1m from his campaign funds for anyone who reported a case of voter fraud that could be proven, at a price of $25,000 per incident, he only had to pay out for 1 case. That was paid to Eric Frank, a Democratic poll worker in PA who reported Ralph Holloway Thurman, a Republican who after voting once, attempted to vote a second time as his son. That;s all. Even with a $25,000 incentive they only found one single instance. Makes me wonder why we are still going down this rabbit hole.

Now, let's look at what this poll actually says. Here is the fraud they found. Of the respondents who voted by mail, 21% said they helped a friend or family member such as a child or spouse. (therein lies the 1 in 5 claim) 17% of those who voted by mail said that someone either helped them or filled out the ballot for them. 17% of mail-in voters said they voted in a state where they no longer resided. So, even if you believe these numbers (which I must question based the above remunerated reasons) there's nothing here to suggest that any of these findings had any impact whatsoever on the election results. With that, my feelings on the poll are as follows, it's another attempt by someone with an agenda trying to make people fear that the elections can't be trusted. I'm not biting!
 
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Vambram

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That's fine. But its statisticians and poster who think that...not some idiot random teacher online.
It's liberal statisticians who think that.
 
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rambot

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It's liberal statisticians who think that.
Really? Why? This sounds like a chicken and the egg situation suddenly.
Did they have a right leaning bias before a leftist statistician noticed or does the statistician become leftist once he proclaims the bias Of Rasmussen?
 
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Vambram

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Really? Why? This sounds like a chicken and the egg situation suddenly.
Did they have a right leaning bias before a leftist statistician noticed or does the statistician become leftist once he proclaims the bias Of Rasmussen?
I believe that you and I will have opposite answers to those questions.
 
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SimplyMe

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Drilling down using the link you provided, here is the question about voting in a state where you are not a permanent resident.



Note how the question is wildly different from the claim made. The actual question is do you know anyone who did this, not did you do it! Perhaps even more important it opens the door for someone who does not understand the law to make a false conclusion. E.g. any student can legally choose either their state of residence before going away to school or the state their school is in. There are other similar situations.

I think you found the biggest issue with the poll -- that it asks people who "knew" someone who voted in a state where they no longer resided. And, to point out, it is not only students who can vote in their "old" states (where they claim permanent residence at their parents'/guardians' home) but also military members.

The entire time I was in the college, and then after the years I was in the military, as the state where I graduated high school as my state of residence. In fact, most military members tend to either keep their home state as the state they vote in OR they pick a state like Alaska, Florida, Nevada, South Dakota, Tennessee, Texas, Wyoming, or Washington -- states that have no state income tax -- if they have been able to claim residence in those states. So, yes, anyone who knew a military member likely knows someone voted in a state they no longer live in.

Beyond that, I can see a number of Trump supporters voting "yes" -- particularly if they know "liberals" -- just believing that Democrats must have "cheated".
 
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rambot

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I believe that you and I will have opposite answers to those questions.
I'm not stuck on that question. I recognize experts and assessors in their field and am willing to differ to their expertise without considering them so tainted by bias as to invalidate their opinion.
 
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keith99

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I think you found the biggest issue with the poll -- that it asks people who "knew" someone who voted in a state where they no longer resided. And, to point out, it is not only students who can vote in their "old" states (where they claim permanent residence at their parents'/guardians' home) but also military members.

The entire time I was in the college, and then after the years I was in the military, as the state where I graduated high school as my state of residence. In fact, most military members tend to either keep their home state as the state they vote in OR they pick a state like Alaska, Florida, Nevada, South Dakota, Tennessee, Texas, Wyoming, or Washington -- states that have no state income tax -- if they have been able to claim residence in those states. So, yes, anyone who knew a military member likely knows someone voted in a state they no longer live in.

Beyond that, I can see a number of Trump supporters voting "yes" -- particularly if they know "liberals" -- just believing that Democrats must have "cheated".
That points out something I forgot to mention. The breakdown of that question by party becomes absurd in this case, unless one thinks most people only know others with the same party affiliation.
 
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KCfromNC

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I think you found the biggest issue with the poll -- that it asks people who "knew" someone who voted in a state where they no longer resided.
I wonder if this includes people who heard about it happening on Fox News or other far-right entertainment sources? I mean, they didn't know them, but know vs know of is a pretty fine line for such a vague question.
 
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SimplyMe

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I wonder if this includes people who heard about it happening on Fox News or other far-right entertainment sources? I mean, they didn't know them, but know vs know of is a pretty fine line for such a vague question.

My guess is yes, particularly with the vagueness of the question and the desire for some to "prove" election fraud.
 
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