Partisan differences in the *perceived* safety of major US cities

[essentialsaltes]

Gallup: Americans Rate Dallas and Boston Safest of 16 U.S. Cities (but are they really?)​

Text of the Gallup question:

Now thinking about some large cities, both those you have visited and those you have never visited, from what you know and have read, do you consider each of the following cities to be safe to live in or visit, or not?


There are two angles on the story. First, that there is a huge partisan difference in how people see most of these cities. Given the 'anti-urban' bias of some conservatives, it's perhaps not surprising that Republicans see these cities as less safe than Democrats do (with the sole exception of Dallas). But the magnitude of the difference is pretty stark. 30%-40%+ in most cases.

Second, of course, is how does this perceived safety match up with actual safety? It's hard to come up with a single number that adequately sums up safety. But there are a few details from an LA Times story about the poll.

Americans are hopelessly confused about big-city crime. Partisanship is partly to blame​

Forty-one percent of Americans described L.A. as a safe place to live or visit, the highest number Gallup has ever recorded for the city.
[But despite this high water mark in the polling...]
Los Angeles, which has the fifth lowest homicide rate so far this year among the 16 cities in the survey, was ranked as the third most dangerous.

Sixty-four percent of Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents ranked L.A. safe, while only 21% of Republicans and Republican-leaning independents gave it the all-clear, the biggest gap in the poll. [Tied with the gap for Seattle. Seattle's murder rate in 2021 was 5.6 per 100K, about a third the rate of Dallas, the 'safest' city in the overall poll.]

Voters’ opinions probably are being informed by partisanship, media portrayals — including an increase in neighborhood websites and email listservs — and factors such as public homelessness, drug use, shoplifting and other signs of disorder, policy and political experts said.

“The political rhetoric is public nuisance crimes,” Harvey said. “That may not be correlated with where the most serious violent crime is happening.”

 

[dogs4thewin]

I do not trust the safety in ANY of those places. As someone to whom Atlanta is the closest I hear and read about a LOT of issues. Having videos about a few of the other cities (including some where businesses are leaving like big companies I can only reason that those places are not safe since why would places like Walmart leave whole cities otherwise?

 

[JosephZ]

Having videos about a few of the other cities (including some where businesses are leaving like big companies I can only reason that those places are not safe since why would places like Walmart leave whole cities otherwise?

There are multiple reasons big box stores and other large retailers are leaving big cities. While crime is one factor, it's not the main reason.

“Several forces are pushing chains out of some city centers: a glut of stores, people working from home, online shopping, exorbitant rents, crime and public safety concerns, and difficulty hiring workers.” (Source)

The stores not being profitable seems to be the primary reason.

The simplest explanation is that collectively our Chicago stores have not been profitable since we opened the first one nearly 17 years ago – these stores lose tens of millions of dollars a year, and their annual losses nearly doubled in just the last five years. The remaining four Chicago stores continue to face the same business difficulties, but we think this decision gives us the best chance to help keep them open and serving the community.

Over the years, we have tried many different strategies to improve the business performance of these locations, including building smaller stores, localizing product assortment and offering services beyond traditional retail. We have invested hundreds of millions of dollars in the city, including $70 million in the last couple years to upgrade our stores and build two new Walmart Health facilities and a Walmart Academy training center.

It was hoped that these investments would help improve our stores’ performance. Unfortunately, these efforts have not materially improved the fundamental business challenges our stores are facing. (Source)


While 90% Americans live within 10 miles of one of its stores, CB Insights analyst Laura Kennedy said that “Walmart’s foundation and home base has never been in cities.”

Customers are also more likely to arrive on foot — meaning people can only buy as many twinkle lights as they can physically carry.

“The basket size is smaller, customers don’t fill up the back of an SUV coming out of an urban store,” said Mark A. Cohen, director of Retail Studies at Columbia Business School. “They grab a couple of items and they leave.”

Cohen says that many big box retailers have struggled in cities where operational costs are often higher, and that it makes sense for stores to close if they’re not making money. (Source)

 

[durangodawood]

People arent very interested in reading good or neutral news about the political "other". They like bad news and are drawn to it and extrapolate from it.

Not that bad news is fake. But the extrapolations often are.

 

[Aaron112]

There are multiple reasons big box stores and other large retailers are leaving big cities. While crime is one factor, it's not the main reason.

I think the main reason, the real reason, may remain hidden ... ...

 

[Aaron112]

Not that bad news is fake. But the extrapolations often are.

Rather maybe fake news is made to look good, or at least to get people to watch and click 'subscribe' to a channel ?

 

[USincognito]

I'm going to give a non- political perspective that does fold back to politics. Except for suburban Manilla when I was a baby and Tehran when I was a child, I'd always lived in small towns.

In 1986 I moved to a suburb of Wichita Falls, TX. WF has a population of 100,000 and hardly foreboding, but I rarely went at night east of the highway that divided the older and newer parts of town because it seemed dicy to me.

In 1993 I moved to north Dallas and for 17 years felt pretty comfortable, though much of my social life and work was in the suburbs. Since 2010 I have lived in the prosperous northern suburbs, but still love traveling into Dallas proper.

Except for foreign metropolises, no place I'd lived had more than 6,000 people until my 20s and despite being cosmopolitan, I was and remain* quite intimidated by large cities. 2022 me thought nothing of traveling into Boston, but still wouldn't do so on foot at night. I go for walks in my Dallas suburb at 3am, but would never do so in Dallas proper.