Pandemic started in a lab:

[Ana the Ist]

Gain-of-function research continues to be probed by Congress due to the competing theories of the origins of the coronavirus: the lab-leak hypothesis and the natural-transmission hypothesis. The Energy Department joined the FBI in preferring the lab-leak hypothesis in February. Other agencies disagree.​

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Ratcliffe weighed into the debate on Tuesday.​

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“My informed assessment as a person with as much access as anyone during the initial year of the pandemic has been and continues to be that a lab leak is the only explanation credibly supported by our intelligence, by science, and by common sense,” he explained.​

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“From a view inside the [intelligence community] if our intelligence and evidence supporting a lab-leak theory was placed side by side with our intelligence and evidence pointing to a natural-origins or spillover theory, the lab leak side of the ledger would be long, convincing, and overwhelming, while the spillover side would be nearly empty and tenuous,” said Ratcliffe. “Were this a trial, a preponderance of circumstantial evidence compiled by our intelligence would compel a jury finding of guilty to an accusation that coronavirus research in the Wuhan labs was responsible for the pandemic.”​

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Fauci Testimony on Gain-of-Function Research Was ‘Inconsistent’ with Existing Intel, Says Ex-Director of National Intelligence

Former DNI John Ratcliffe told Congress that Fauci’s testimony under oath on gain-of-function research did not comport with the intelligence available at the time.

news.yahoo.com

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Yeah, as of now....I'm unaware of any hard evidence for a natural cause of the virus, and only a minimal amount of circumstantial evidence of a natural cause. Some of that circumstantial evidence appears to either be heavily flawed or basically fraudulent (like the research published shortly after the lab leak theory was suppressed).

The circumstantial evidence of the lab leak is individually weak....but cumulatively strong. It would be one thing if China suddenly increased its medical supplies....or if lab records suddenly went missing.....or if lab workers went to the hospital with covid like symptoms earlier than expected...


But when you put all these together with the many other pieces of circumstantial evidence, the idea that it came from a wet market is just silly...and people who still believe it saying that the people who believe in the lab leak are conspiracy theorists or haven't been vindicated are just not interested in evidence. The cognitive dissonance of remembering that CNN lied to them while they would have been closer to the truth had they listened to Joe Rogan is just too much for them.

 

[stevil]

I'm not interested in teaching you about smallpox vaccines if you don't understand anything about flu vaccines.

That's a bizare dodge. You make a claim about my misunderstanding of smallpox vaccines and you aren;t willing to point out anything that I have said that you think is wrong. Nice!

There's a growing body of evidence that getting flu shot year after year reduces its effectiveness.

No there isn't. There is however, a concerted anti vaxx effort to create and distribute misinformation.

If that's the point you're making, then it's all the more reason to not get booster shots lol.

No sensible person is suggesting not to get boosters.

No...as your article points out, some vaccines thought to last a lifetime may only retain 50% effectiveness decades later. It's interesting, but not at all relevant.

It's relevant because you were claiming that only Covid vax wanes over time. You know this, but you are here trying to attack me rather than have a considered conversation.

Your vaccination is all but worthless around 8-9 months later.

This is not true

You see, only the covid vaccine is so ineffective that it requires constant boosters to remain effective. As there's a growing body of evidence that the boosters are probably not just losing effectiveness over time, but possibly making infection more Iikely....

This is not true. There is one article, one study that is not peer reviewed and is not backed up by other studies. It shows a trend but the authors have no idea why that trend is in this study and they have suggested more investigation is required.

We can say that the covid vaccines is arguably the worst vaccine ever made and mass distributed. Only time will tell if it's also the most damaging.

No, what we can say though is that the Covid vaccine came quickly and saved many millions of lives. We can also say that there is very little evidence to suggest that the vaccine is damaging. It can cause micharditise, but it does that at a much less rate than what covid itself does, so it is an improvement.

 

[stevil]

In the elderly, yes. In nearly every other age group, no.

In most age groups.

So you think every single excess death in NZ is attributable to COVID? Not even the most die-hard of covidians believe that...

There is a massively high correlation between the excess deaths in 2022 and the covid deaths, go figure.

Until you acknowledge the reality of age-stratification and stop talking in absolutes as if the risks are the same for all age groups, you are being incredibly, intentionally misleading.

I've said many times I aknowledge covid is more deadly to elderly. I have no idea why you keep going on about this or why you keep accusing me of not acknowledging this.

 

[Ana the Ist]

That's a bizare dodge. You make a claim about my misunderstanding of smallpox vaccines and you aren;t willing to point out anything that I have said that you think is wrong. Nice!

Consider it a concession. You're right....I should have addressed the post, not you.

No there isn't. There is however, a concerted anti vaxx effort to create and distribute misinformation.

Lol OK. Well those scientists and medical experts should consult you first I suppose.

No sensible person is suggesting not to get boosters.

I disagree.

It's relevant because you were claiming that only Covid vax wanes over time.

Right....generally speaking, while children may receive a MMR booster, the effectiveness lasts for decades....probably depending upon a variety of factors relative to the person getting vaccinated.

Covid is the only virus I'm aware of that needs repeated, sustained boosters and revaccinations to retain efficacy against the same virus....let alone a major variants.

You know this, but you are here trying to attack me rather than have a considered conversation.

We aren't going to have a considered conversation. Only one of us has considered the evidence.

This is not true

Yes...it is.

This is not true. There is one article, one study that is not peer reviewed and is not backed up by other studies. It shows a trend but the authors have no idea why that trend is in this study and they have suggested more investigation is required.

Multiple studies.

No, what we can say though is that the Covid vaccine came quickly and saved many millions of lives. We can also say that there is very little evidence to suggest that the vaccine is damaging. It can cause micharditise, but it does that at a much less rate than what covid itself does, so it is an improvement.

You have no idea what the long term effects are.

 

[probinson]

In most age groups.

False.

There is a massively high correlation between the excess deaths in 2022 and the covid deaths, go figure

Weird. Vaccination should have protected people from severe illness and death, no?

I've said many times I aknowledge covid is more deadly to elderly. I have no idea why you keep going on about this or why you keep accusing me of not acknowledging this.

Because you haven't. Heck, even in this post, you're going on about how COVID is dangerous to "most age groups", which is simply not what the data shows.

You're simply repeating the errors that public health has indoctrinated you with. The reality is, COVID never posed a substantial risk to young, healthy people. Responsible, honest public health authorities would have acknowledged that fact.

Also, I'm not sure you ever answered the question about what benefit you think you will derive from another COVID booster. You said if they offer one to you, you'll gladly take it. Why? Do you feel unprotected now?

 

[KCfromNC]

Um, no. I said that the jump in deaths in Sweden in 2020 is probably at least partly because of the unusually low number of deaths in 2019. The NIH says that it "may, in part" be because of the low number of deaths in 2019. I was simply showing that the NIH also believes that at least in part, mortality displacement is the cause of higher mortality numbers in Sweden in 2020.

Interesting attempt to get rid of the word "may" in that last sentence. Not sure if it is intentional or just a reflection of unconscious filtering towards a predetermined conclusion.

 

[KCfromNC]

Why do you keep focusing on the notoriously ineffective and mostly useless flu vaccine?

Focusing? That's a weird word to use about a single post which simply links to factual data.

In fact, it looks like an attempt to mischaracterize what I wrote, perhaps with the intent of making it look like I'm somehow an unreliable source. Again, not sure if that's an intentional tactic or just a case of an unconscious response to the cognitive dissonance from factual data getting the way of a desired conclusion.

 

[KCfromNC]

Let's take a look again at age-standardized mortality. Seems New Zealand started off on par with Sweden, but the various approaches to the pandemic led to a significant INCREASE in ASMR mortality in NZ and a DECREASE in Sweden. Also, Australia started off with a lower mortality rate than Sweden, but is now seeing a greater rate as well.

View attachment 330293

I wonder why the data from 2019 isn't plotted.
I mean, previously, that was like a very important thing that maybe, possibly led to the spike in death rates in Sweden in 2020.
But now we're seeing a chart which is crafted to hide that spike.

Very interesting how selective these various presentations of the data are.

 

[KCfromNC]

Weird. Vaccination should have protected people from severe illness and death, no?

Yes, that's what the research shows. Why do you ask?
Is there some confusion that "protection" means "100% protection in all cases"?

 

[probinson]

Interesting attempt to get rid of the word "may" in that last sentence. Not sure if it is intentional or just a reflection of unconscious filtering towards a predetermined conclusion.

When one is uncertain about something, they might use the word "may". There's no "unconscious filtering" here. Simply a plausible explanation.

 

[probinson]

Focusing? That's a weird word to use about a single post which simply links to factual data.

There were other vaccines mentioned. You focused on the flu vaccine.

In fact, it looks like an attempt to mischaracterize what I wrote, perhaps with the intent of making it look like I'm somehow an unreliable source.

No need to do that. You're doing a fine job all on your own without my help.

 

[probinson]

I wonder why the data from 2019 isn't plotted.
I mean, previously, that was like a very important thing that maybe, possibly led to the spike in death rates in Sweden in 2020.
But now we're seeing a chart which is crafted to hide that spike.

Here is the same chart with the data from 2019 shown.

Nothing is being "hidden". As you can see, New Zealand has not had a lower ASMR than Sweden since before the beginning of the pandemic.

Instead of pretending like I have something to hide, perhaps try engaging in the discussion in earnest. That will require some actual honest to goodness critical thinking as opposed to lazy, baseless casting of aspersions though.

 

[probinson]

Yes, that's what the research shows. Why do you ask?
Is there some confusion that "protection" means "100% protection in all cases"?

So we're supposed to believe that vaccines result in a 10x lower chance of death (a completely fabricated statistic oft repeated throughout this thread), but excess death numbers are up after the population has achieved >90% vaccination, and that is why excess deaths are higher than we've seen since WWII?

Have you ever heard of survivor bias? Here's a great 7-minute video that shows how studies showing a much lower mortality rate for the vaccinated are perhaps nothing more than a statistical illusion.

 

[stevil]

So we're supposed to believe that vaccines result in a 10x lower chance of death (a completely fabricated statistic oft repeated throughout this thread), but excess death numbers are up after the population has achieved >90% vaccination, and that is why excess deaths are higher than we've seen since WWII?

It's just basic maths.

If people were mostly vaccinated then NZ had 4K die of Covid
If people were not vaccinated then a country like NZ would likely have much more die of Covid, perhaps upto 40K deaths.

Either way 4K or 40K, both are a large increase and are counted as a significant excess mortality.

In 2022 when NZ opened up society, we had 4K excess deaths which includes, not surprisingly 4K Covid deaths.


In comparrison, Sweden has had 24K deaths. Sweeden is twice the population size of NZ, so half of Sweeden's Covid deaths would be 12K.
Two questions come to play.
1. Why is Sweeden's Covid death so high (>8K)?
2. Why is Sweeden's Covid death so low (<80K)?

Answer to 1. is because they didn't bother with lockdowns, masks, quarantine etc. They didn't bother trying to buy time to get the population vaccinated.

Answer to 2. Their vaccination take up is pretty good. 86.4% of their population over 18 have had at least 2 doses. 66.8% with 3 doses. For people over 65, 82% have had at least 4 doses. So once vaccines came to be available, they population protected themselves.

 

[probinson]

It's just basic maths.

Must be that "new math".

If people were mostly vaccinated then NZ had 4K die of Covid
If people were not vaccinated then a country like NZ would likely have much more die of Covid, perhaps upto 40K deaths.

You keep positing these counterfactuals that can never be verified. Science is easy when you just make stuff up.

Either way 4K or 40K, both are a large increase and are counted as a significant excess mortality.

In 2022 when NZ opened up society, we had 4K excess deaths which includes, not surprisingly 4K Covid deaths.

I'm not sure exactly what is going on in NZ regarding excess deaths, but in other countries, the alarmingly high excess death rates are NOT all attributable to COVID. Take the UK for example.

Even this data uncovered something disturbing – higher death rates among relatively young adults, and as spring came, more dying than in 2019. And here’s the thing: while the dreadful Covid death toll continues to mount, many of these excess deaths are driven by other factors.​

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Britain’s excess death rate is at a disastrous high – and the causes go far beyond Covid | Owen Jones

A deadly, avoidable crisis is under way, fuelled by NHS cuts, the neglect of social care, inequality and the soaring cost of living, says Guardian columnist Owen Jones

www.theguardian.com

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Clearly there is more driving excess deaths in the UK than just COVID deaths. It's particularly concerning that the death rates are increasing among younger people, which is the exact opposite of what should happen in a largely vaccinated, young population.

In comparrison, Sweden has had 24K deaths. Sweeden is twice the population size of NZ, so half of Sweeden's Covid deaths would be 12K.
Two questions come to play.
1. Why is Sweeden's Covid death so high (>8K)?
2. Why is Sweeden's Covid death so low (<80K)?

I see we're back to a myopic focus on COVID deaths. You do realize that people die for other reasons, right? You really should read more about the concerning excess death numbers in other countries. The response to COVID is resulting in higher death rates than pre-pandemic, and not only from COVID infections.

Answer to 1. is because they didn't bother with lockdowns, masks, quarantine etc. They didn't bother trying to buy time to get the population vaccinated.

And aside from some questionable policies surrounding the elderly early on, Sweden has been largely vindicated in this course of action by having one of the lowest cumulative excess death tolls in the world.

Answer to 2. Their vaccination take up is pretty good. 86.4% of their population over 18 have had at least 2 doses.

This is largely irrelevant. I'm sure you know that the IFR for young, healthy adults is a fraction of a fraction of a fraction of one percent. It would be like you putting a sign in your front yard that says "NO ELEPHANTS ALLOWED" and then pretending like the reason there are no elephants in your yard is because of your sign. So it is with many young, healthy vaccinated people. I know you want to include them in your vaccine efficacy numbers, because it makes your argument sound more convincing. But in reality, whether the overwhelming majority of young, healthy people were vaccinated or not, they were never at a particularly concerning risk of death from COVID in the first place.

 

[stevil]

I'm not sure exactly what is going on in NZ regarding excess deaths, but in other countries, the alarmingly high excess death rates are NOT all attributable to COVID. Take the UK for example.

If we ignore NZ, Aus, Norway, Finland, Denmark vs the calamity of Sweeden. And then focus on UK it might be interesting to look at UK anyway. Maybe I'll do that sometime.

There is a video that I've already published in this thread where the prime minister of UK said he'd just let the disease flow through the population and that he went to hospital and started shaking hands with people, knowing that he might be spreading the disease.

But yeah, OK. Let's say UK has a high young death rate now (not attributed to Covid), I don't know if this is true or not. But I might take a look.

I see we're back to a myopic focus on COVID deaths. You do realize that people die for other reasons, right? You really should read more about the concerning excess death numbers in other countries. The response to COVID is resulting in higher death rates than pre-pandemic, and not only from COVID infections.

I took a look at NZ, Aus, Norway, Finland, Denmark and their Covid deaths account for the lion's share if not all of their excess deaths. Any particular countries you would like me to look further into other than UK?

And aside from some questionable policies surrounding the elderly early on, Sweden has been largely vindicated in this course of action by having one of the lowest cumulative excess death tolls in the world.

Sweden's Covid response was disasterous and resulted in 10's of thousand of unnecessary deaths.
However I have seen a chart going back to 2000 which shows their year on year death rate has been dropping over the last 2 decades (except for the pandemic). I would be interested to know where these improvements are and how Sweden has been able to achieve this (Pssst, it has nothing to do with Covid or lack of lockdowns)

This is largely irrelevant.

Vaccine rates vs Covid death rates is not irrelevant at all. There are huge amounts of verified studies showing that the vaccinated are much less likely to die.

 

[probinson]

If we ignore NZ, Aus, Norway, Finland, Denmark vs the calamity of Sweeden.

Sweden was not a "calamity". Also, Australia is experiencing excess deaths not attributable to COVID as well, at rates not seen since WWII!

There were 6600 remaining excess deaths with no mention of COVID on the death certificate.​

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“It’s not normal to see that level of excess mortality in non-pandemic times. Normal fluctuations would be 1 or 2 per cent – to have 12 per cent excess mortality is a very large number ... You would have to go back to World War II to see these levels of excess mortality,” she said.​

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Almost 20,000 more people died last year – the highest excess death rate since WWII

New data published on Monday estimates there was a 12 per cent spike in excess deaths in 2022, with COVID the reason for 10,300 extra deaths and a contributing factor in an additional 2900.

www.smh.com.au

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But yeah, OK. Let's say UK has a high young death rate now (not attributed to Covid), I don't know if this is true or not. But I might take a look.

Start with the article I posted.

I took a look at NZ, Aus, Norway, Finland, Denmark and their Covid deaths account for the lion's share if not all of their excess deaths. Any particular countries you would like me to look further into other than UK?

It's pretty obvious you didn't look at Australia very closely. As the article above explains, there are ~6,600 excess deaths in Australia not attributable to COVID.

Sweden's Covid response was disasterous

It was not. Sweden's response to COVID was calm, measured, and reflective of decades of pre-pandemic preparedness plans. Sweden is perhaps the ONLY country to stick to the scientifically sound plans that were in place for these circumstances. The rest of the world decided to implement foolish, unproven, Chinese-inspired lockdowns. The collateral damage was immense, and is still being revealed. We likely won't understand the full opportunity costs of lockdowns for at least another decade.

and resulted in 10's of thousand of unnecessary deaths.

Actually, as I've already shown, the rate of all-cause mortality was not particularly out of line with norms in 2020 in Sweden.

Would you prefer that those elderly would have died from loneliness in isolation instead of from being infected with COVID?

https://www.npr.org/2022/02/19/1081948849/elderly-people-make-up-75-of-covid-19-deaths-partially-due-to-loneliness

Vaccine rates vs Covid death rates is not irrelevant at all. There are huge amounts of verified studies showing that the vaccinated are much less likely to die.

Dependent upon their age. You keep saying that you've acknowledged the age-stratification of the mortality risk of COVID, but then you say things like this. The data shows that young, healthy people were NEVER at a particularly concerning risk of mortality from COVID, whether they were vaccinated or not. The elderly were particularly susceptible, and vaccination made a considerable positive impact on mortality in older citizens. But in young people? Not so much.

 

[stevil]

Sweden was not a "calamity". Also, Australia is experiencing excess deaths not attributable to COVID as well, at rates not seen since WWII!

Well, again, there was this thing called the global pandemic which was killing people all over the world in mass, so it's not unexpected that Australia was experiencing massive excess deaths in 2022, when they opened up society, just like all other countries that did the same. They avoided it in 2020 and 2021 and experienced it in 2022 albeit at the vaccinated rate. Not unexpected at all.

 

[probinson]

Well, again, there was this thing called the global pandemic which was killing people all over the world in mass, so it's not unexpected that Australia was experiencing massive excess deaths in 2022,

Australia is experiencing massive excess deaths NOW, in 2023.

when they opened up society, just like all other countries that did the same. They avoided it in 2020 and 2021 and experienced it in 2022 albeit at the vaccinated rate. Not unexpected at all.

Except they're still experiencing it in 2023, and their cumulative excess death rate far exceeds that of Sweden.

 

[stevil]

Australia is experiencing massive excess deaths NOW, in 2023.



Except they're still experiencing it in 2023, and their cumulative excess death rate far exceeds that of Sweden.

I'd expect them to still be experiencing an excess death rate due to Covid in 2023. The pandemic isn't over.
Sweden killed a lot of their vulnerable in 2020. So those ones aren't alive anymore to be statistics in 2023.
Sweden have had 1,540 Covid deaths so far in the 4 months of 2023.
Australia have had 1,748 Covid deaths so far in the 4 months of 2023.

Sweden's population is 10.4 million, Australia's is 25.7 million, so Australia is 2.47 times bigger than Sweden.
If we were to multiply Sweden's Covid death tally by 2.47 we would get 3,805. So proportionately speaking Sweden in 2023 is fairing way, way worse than Australia even though Sweden has already killed off a fair chuck of their elderly or vulnerable plus others.

In total Sweden has had 23,913 Covid deaths where Australia has had 19,936 Covid deaths.
Remember that Australia has 2.47 times the population as Sweden. So at the death rate Sweden experienced, you'd expect Australia to have 23,913x2.47 = 59,065 but instead Australia have had only 19,936.

In terms of this pandemic Sweden are letting their people die at massive rates. It is very sad, but also very sad that people like yourself are running across the internet spreading misinformation and trying to convince people that Sweden's do nothing approach is the poster child.