Pandemic started in a lab:

[stevil]

Not a rant. Just the truth. The eradication strategy for COVID was never feasible. While New Zealand liked to pretend that "zero-COVID" was a viable strategy, we can look at the data and see what a foolish idea it was from the beginning.

It was feasible and we did achieve it. For over 100 days we had absolutely no covid transmission in society.

 

[probinson]

It was feasible and we did achieve it.

It was not, and you did not.

For over 100 days we had absolutely no covid transmission in society.

Congratulations. You managed to slow COVID transmission for less than 1/3 of a year. Woo!

Meanwhile, back in the land of evidence-based reality, COVID was in no way "eradicated" from NZ.

2.22 million cases of COVID (and counting) in a country with a population of just over 5 million. As I said, zero-covid was never a feasible strategy. "Eradication" would not have resulted in nearly 1/2 of the population of NZ infected.

I get why you need people to believe that you "eradicated" the disease. It's vital to your flawed talking points about how wonderful lockdowns are. Unfortunately, the data just doesn't support your narrative.

 

[Ana the Ist]

Once vaccinations were created for Smallpox it took 50 years to irradicate it.

History of smallpox vaccination

One of the deadliest diseases known to humans, smallpox remains the only human disease to have been eradicated. Many believe this achievement to be the most significant milestone in global public health.

www.who.int

They had to reach a very high takeup level of vaccinations. They would never be able to acheive that today, especially in USA where you have the Republican supporters going against common sense and science and trying to make everything political.
Having 20-40% of people refusing to get vaccinated guarantees that a diesease will be prevalent in society and that means even the vaccinated people will likely catch it.



It is proven that vaccinated people are far less likely to need hospital care and far less likely to die from the disease.



They just follow the data, the results, the evidence



This is a lie.
Many people of all ages have died from the disease, even healthy people have died from it. Chances of death are around 10x less if you have been vaccinated regardless of age.


There are no guarantees.
Some people react mildly, some people get severe infections. But statistically speaking, vaccinated people are far less likely to go to hospital or to die.

Many people get flu vaccinations every year. So what?

Ignoring everything you don't seem to understand about the smallpox vaccine....

Do you understand why there is a seasonal flu vaccine? Do you think it's because the previous year's flu vaccine "wore off" and is less effective this year? Or do you think it's because the flu on any given year has mutated enough to make the previous year's vaccine ineffective?


Then I'd like to know how you would answer those questions as they relate to covid vaccines and boosters. Do you think that the covid vax loses effectiveness because covid has changed so much in 6 months that the vax you initially got is no longer effective? Or do you think that unlike every other vaccine....the covid vax basically just wears off over a long enough time?

 

[Ana the Ist]

The current state of this is that some (definitely not all) agencies think that the lab leak hypothesis is more likely than others to be true, but they're not very confident in that assessment.

I wonder if their confidence would change I'd they couldn't be fired for their assessment.

That's not a ringing endorsement of it. It's still true that the people pushing the theory a couple years ago were talking out of their back sides, likely for political reasons, with no evidence to back up their claims

Well there were scientists....experts...former CDC directors....all which were called conspiracy theorists, quacks, etc, and censored or silenced in cooperation with the government.


But regardless of the various people with various opinions....

We know that rare covid variants were being studied in the Wuhan covid lab.

Despite a lot of looking....we found no such variants in the wet market.

So when it comes to the possibility of these two places being the origin....only the lab has any hard evidence that it could have been the origin.

. You guys have not been vindicated.

You say that as if vindication was needed at this point. There's only hard evidence for the lab leak, plenty of evidence for a cover-up, and no reason to believe that a wet market scenario is even plausible anymore.

 

[probinson]

Here is an excellent timeline of the ever-shifting positions from public health officials speaking about the effectiveness of the COVID vaccines. If you want to know why people don't trust the public health agencies, do yourself a favor and read this timeline of statements. Behold their noble lies. Marvel at the contradictory statements, some made just days apart.

The Shifting Narrative on Vaccine Effectiveness

A timeline of public statements by the US government

kelleyk.substack.com

 

[stevil]

Ignoring everything you don't seem to understand about the smallpox vaccine....

Show many any statement I've made about smallpox that is innaccurate, rather than make a vacuous attack like this.
Focus on points, not on me.

Do you understand why there is a seasonal flu vaccine?

Yes, thanks for asking.

Then I'd like to know how you would answer those questions as they relate to covid vaccines and boosters. Do you think that the covid vax loses effectiveness because covid has changed so much in 6 months that the vax you initially got is no longer effective? Or do you think that unlike every other vaccine....the covid vax basically just wears off over a long enough time?

Read this and educate yourself.

Science | AAAS

www.science.org

There are two aspects in play. Vaccines effectiveness wanes over time (this is not unique to the Covid vaccine), viruses, bacteria, fungus mutates over time. Omicron is more resistant to prior Covid vaccines and that is why there is the bivalent vaccine.

 

[stevil]

It was not, and you did not.

And this is why you are not worth talking to. You deny reality. I can't discuss in a cordial fashion a topic with a person that lies and denies.
I've told you what happened here. I lived through the whole thing. You brought up a state about covid cases and deaths during the erradicated phase and I explained they were only at the border in the quarantine fascilities. But it seem you cannot understand that fact.
I don't know how we can continue with this coversation if you are not willing to listen or accept facts.

 

[probinson]

And this is why you are not worth talking to. You deny reality.

I'm not the one pretending that NZ "eradicated" COVID. You're the one that seems to have a problem with denying reality.

I can't discuss in a cordial fashion a topic with a person that lies and denies.
I've told you what happened here. I lived through the whole thing. You brought up a state about covid cases and deaths during the erradicated phase and I explained they were only at the border in the quarantine fascilities. But it seem you cannot understand that fact.

COVID was never "eradicated" in NZ. Just because you carried on maskless at large events doesn't mean COVID wasn't silently circulating amongst you. If it had been "eradicated", there would not have been such a precipitous increase of cases.

You know before COVID, people carried on maskless at massive events all the time all over the world and never gave it a second thought. Your claim seems to be that since NZ was open and functioning normally, that somehow necessitates that COVID was "eradicated". But it does no such thing, and as we can see from the data, COVID was amongst you all along. There simply is no way you would have had such a precipitous increase in cases so rapidly if it were not.

I don't know how we can continue with this coversation if you are not willing to listen or accept facts.

You're the one not accepting facts. And you're hyper-focused on this one thing. I understand why. It's difficult to square your position with the fact that there are multiple studies showing that there is a concerning correlation between more vaccine doses and greater susceptibility to infection. Or when I show totally contradictory statements from public health officials just days apart to discuss the very legitimate reasons people don't trust public health. Those things are much harder to discuss, so you stay parked on this fantasy that NZ "eradicated" COVID (which is demonstrably untrue) and then get all righteously indignant pretending like you're not the one denying the reality right in front of your face.

You're literally making things up in an attempt to justify lockdowns. But aside from others who have become fully consumed with the pandemic propaganda, you're not fooling anyone.

It's like bizarro, upside-down world. You deny reality, and then pretend like the one who points this out to you with data is the one to blame. But then, that's been indicative of the foolish COVID response from day one, so it's not all that surprising.

 

[stevil]

COVID was never "eradicated" in NZ. Just because you carried on maskless at large events doesn't mean COVID wasn't silently circulating amongst you. If it had been "eradicated", there would not have been such a precipitous increase of cases.

There was no silent circulating of the disease. Our country had one of the best testing initiatives in the world. Testing was frequent and regular and nothing was found until, after 100 days we had an outbreak in Auckland, Auckland went into lockdown again, but the rest of the country remained open.

During the 100 days, covid cases and some deaths were recorded in the quarantine facilities from NZers coming home from overseas.

 

[probinson]

There was no silent circulating of the disease.

Sure there was. How else do you explain this precipitous increase in cases?

You don't go from zero cases to nearly a million cases in just a few short months if the virus wasn't already present.

Our country had one of the best testing initiatives in the world.

Ah yes. Testing asymptomatic (aka: healthy) people ranks up there as one of the most inane measures implemented by public health agencies during the pandemic. The cycle-count threshold for what constituted a "positive" test result was an absolute joke. So-called "contact tracing" was nothing more than an excuse to further invade people's privacy and did NOTHING to reduce spread of the disease.

Testing was frequent and regular and nothing was found until, after 100 days we had an outbreak in Auckland, Auckland went into lockdown again, but the rest of the country remained open.

During the 100 days, covid cases and some deaths were recorded in the quarantine facilities from NZers coming home from overseas.

Even if this were true, what good does it do to "eradicate" (Seriously. please take a moment and look up that word so you'll know how to use it correctly...) a disease for a mere 100 days (roughly 3-1/2 months) if at the end of those 100 days, the disease comes roaring back?

 

[stevil]

Sure there was. How else do you explain this precipitous increase in cases?

View attachment 330291

You don't go from zero cases to nearly a million cases in just a few short months if the virus wasn't already present.

Yes you do explain it that way. The R0 rating of the disease is very high, especially Omicron variant.

And also if you look at many other countries you can see that covid numbers and deaths hit mostly in 2022, because countries who had bothered to protect their citizens finally opened up that year once the population was vaccinated.

NZ were very special compared to other western countries because we were able to eliminate the disease entirely. Our line prior to 2022 was virtually flatlined but with some slight gradual numbers in the quarantine facilities at the border so no exponential growth at all and no community transmission. Australia weren't able to eliminate it from their community, but they managed it very well also.

Whether you believe it or not is beside the point. I don't have to convince you of anything. It's just that I find it difficult having a discussion with someone who denies basic facts like this. It really doesn't leave us much scope to have a considered and respectful conversation about things.

I understand you perhaps don't believe what NZ has been reporting, maybe you are convinced it is impossible to do what we actually did. Maybe you think NZ is some third world country that doesn't track and trace and report correctly IDK, I certainly wouldn't trust figures coming out of China or India or Russia.
But NZ is a first world free well developed democratic country. I lived through every minute of what happened here. Saw it first hand. We really did eliminate the disease, but were always at risk of disease re-entering society due to NZr's coming home from overseas, we had a few scares of people escaping quarantine facilities and we had a couple of outbreaks localised to Auckland which we were able to get on top of and stamp out, until Omicron came along, but by that time we were very close to having most people vaccinated.

 

[probinson]

Yes you do explain it that way. The R0 rating of the disease is very high, especially Omicron variant.

Not to mention all the false positive test results.

And also if you look at many other countries you can see that covid numbers and deaths hit mostly in 2022, because countries who had bothered to protect their citizens finally opened up that year once the population was vaccinated.

Bothered to protect their citizens... then died in 2022. Are you sure you understand what "protect" means?

NZ were very special compared to other western countries because we were able to eliminate the disease entirely.

You were not able to do any such thing.

Our line prior to 2022 was virtually flatlined but with some slight gradual numbers in the quarantine facilities at the border so no exponential growth at all and no community transmission. Australia weren't able to eliminate it from their community, but they managed it very well also.

So well, that they're now experiencing excess death rates not seen in more than 80 years!

Whether you believe it or not is beside the point. I don't have to convince you of anything.

You're right. You'll never convince me of this fantasy you've created.

It's just that I find it difficult having a discussion with someone who denies basic facts like this.

The basic facts are that nearly half of NZ's population has had COVID. This does not happen with "eradicated" diseases. Tell me, how many people in NZ have had smallpox in the last year? Because those are the same numbers one would expect when a disease is legitimately "eradicated" from society.

I understand you perhaps don't believe what NZ has been reporting, maybe you are convinced it is impossible to do what we actually did.

No, it's entirely possible to suppress transmission for short periods of time, and the waves are seasonal. This, of course, does not equate to "eradication" of the disease.

But NZ is a first world free well developed democratic country. I lived through every minute of what happened here. Saw it first hand. We really did eliminate the disease,

You did not, as the data clearly shows.

but were always at risk of disease re-entering society

And there it is. When a disease is "eradicated", it's gone. It doesn't come back exponentially worse 100 days later.

due to NZr's coming home from overseas, we had a few scares of people escaping quarantine facilities and we had a couple of outbreaks localised to Auckland which we were able to get on top of and stamp out, until Omicron came along, but by that time we were very close to having most people vaccinated.

You stamped nothing out. NZ suppressed disease transmission for an exceedingly short period of time, but it was never "eradicated" as the data clearly shows, and now more than half of your citizens have had COVID at least once, regardless of their vaccination status.

In any event, do you have any comments on any other issue I've raised in my last few posts, or is the virtue signaling of NZ "eradicating" the disease paramount to your position?

 

[probinson]

Yesterday, the Director of the CDC lied twice to the US Congress.

Congressman Andrew Clyde (R-Ga) asked Walensky if her March 2021 public statement on MSNBC, in which she unequivocally said that “vaccinated people do not carry the virus, they do not get sick” was accurate.​

​

“At the time it was [accurate]” Walensky replied confidently.​

​

She then proceeded to explain, “We’ve had an evolution of the science and an evolution of the virus” and that “all the data at the time suggested that vaccinated people, even if they got sick, could not transmit the virus.”​

​

However, there was no such evidence at the time and it prompted criticism from scientists who said there weren’t enough data to claim that vaccinated people were completely protected or that they could not transmit the virus to others.​

​

...​

​

Notably, only days after Walensky made that statement to MSNBC, a spokesperson from her own agency had to walk back the comments saying, “Dr Walensky spoke broadly in this interview” adding that it was possible for fully vaccinated people to get COVID-19.​

​

...​

​

Another astonishing falsehood made by Walensky was her response to Congressman Clyde’s question about the Cochrane review which found that wearing face masks in the community “probably makes little to no difference” in preventing viral transmission. ​

​

Walensky enthusiastically stated, “I think its notable, that the Editor-in-Chief of Cochrane, actually said that the summary of that review was…[stumble]..she retracted the summary of that review and said that it was inaccurate.”​

​

However, the summary of the review was not retracted, nor have the authors of the review changed the language in the summary. ​

​

Misleading statements by New York Times columnist Zeynep Tufekci has likely led to this falsehood being repeated (which I cover in a previous article).​

​

CDC director gives misleading testimony to Congress

Walensky misled Congress on vaccine effectiveness against viral transmission and on Cochrane review of face masks

maryannedemasi.substack.com

​

​

Perhaps we should have higher standards for our public health agents. More reasons why trust in the CDC is at historic lows. Until there are some genuine mea culpas and changes in personnel, there is no hope for restoration in the trust in these agencies.

 

[probinson]

Let's take a look again at age-standardized mortality. Seems New Zealand started off on par with Sweden, but the various approaches to the pandemic led to a significant INCREASE in ASMR mortality in NZ and a DECREASE in Sweden. Also, Australia started off with a lower mortality rate than Sweden, but is now seeing a greater rate as well.

 

[stevil]

Bothered to protect their citizens... then died in 2022. Are you sure you understand what "protect" means?

Prevaccination death rate is much higher than post vaccination death rate. Orders of magnitude higher.

You were not able to do any such thing.

Thus it is not possible to discuss this topic with you. Since you deny reality.

So well, that they're now experiencing excess death rates not seen in more than 80 years!

There is a pandemic going on.

The basic facts are that nearly half of NZ's population has had COVID. This does not happen with "eradicated" diseases.

Do you understand the concept of time?

For a substantial period of time we eliminated the disease from our communities.
Then later (before and after are relevant in the concept of time) once our population was vaccinated and once Omicron came along, we opened up our borders (no more quarantine) and no longer was elimination our goal.

Tell me, how many people in NZ have had smallpox in the last year? Because those are the same numbers one would expect when a disease is legitimately "eradicated" from society.

This is just so very dumb.
How to explain simple concepts to a person hell bend on being silly.
When NZ eliminated the disease from our community, we did not eliminate it from the entire world. Even though we eliminated it from our community, there was still the real possibility that it comes back. Duh.

It's like a person having a flu. Their body fights off the infection and eliminates it from the person's body.
Then at a later time in the person's life they catch the flu virus again. Just because they caught it again, doesn't mean that they never eliminated it from their body in between.

Please just stop being so dishonest in your way of discussing things.

 

[probinson]

Prevaccination death rate is much higher than post vaccination death rate. Orders of magnitude higher.

The pre-vaccination IFR was a fraction of a fraction of a fraction of a percent. I already posted a study showing that earlier in the thread. Also, young, healthy people were never at a very high risk. In many cases, young, healthy people (and I'm talking about people all the way up to age 65 or 70 in most cases) had experienced higher mortality from the flu in prior years than they did from COVID.

Thus it is not possible to discuss this topic with you. Since you deny reality.

You are the one denying reality. Just look at the case numbers in NZ. You did not succeed in "eradicating" or "eliminating" COVID in any sense of the word. I really think you've convinced yourself that you did, but you've only succeeded in gaslighting yourself.

There is a pandemic going on.

Except many of the excess deaths are not attributable to COVID. But you already knew that, since I already showed you.

Also, Australia has remarkably high vaccine uptake. Try to keep your agendas straight. If the vaccine works to prevent deaths, then excess deaths should not be higher in countries with high vaccine uptake. If you're suggesting that the high excess death rate in Australia is because of the pandemic, then you are tacitly conceding that the vaccines did not work to keep overall mortality low.

Do you understand the concept of time?

Yes. Do you understand the definition of the words "eradicate" and "eliminate" as they pertain to diseases?

For a substantial period of time we eliminated the disease from our communities.

Good for you. Now, more than half of your population has been infected regardless of vaccination status, some multiple times. Your ostensible "elimination" was all for naught.

Then later (before and after are relevant in the concept of time) once our population was vaccinated and once Omicron came along, we opened up our borders (no more quarantine) and no longer was elimination our goal.

Because elimination was never a feasible goal. That's why you finally gave up the pipe dream of zero COVID. You were able to suppress COVID for a relatively short period of time, but it was not "eliminated" nor "eradicated" as evidenced by the rampant spread of the disease that resulted in nearly half of your population being infected.

When NZ eliminated the disease from our community, we did not eliminate it from the entire world. Even though we eliminated it from our community, there was still the real possibility that it comes back. Duh.

Then it was not "eliminated". It was suppressed for a short period of time.

It's like a person having a flu. Their body fights off the infection and eliminates it from the person's body.

This is the most bizarre analogy yet. No one would suggest that the flu is "eliminated" because someone had it and recovered from it. You're just grasping at straws now.

But, to continue this tortured analogy, no one suggests that the flu is "eliminated" because flu season is over and no one is getting infected. You can bet your bottom dollar that when flu season comes around again, the flu will infect people again. And thus, it has never been "eliminated", nor would anyone suggest anything so nonsensical.

Then at a later time in the person's life they catch the flu virus again. Just because they caught it again, doesn't mean that they never eliminated it from their body in between.

So you want to crow about "eliminating" COVID for a few months? Even though you've now seen >2.2 MILLION infections in your country? And you want people to pretend like this is somehow evidence of "eliminating" COVID? Not likely.

Please just stop being so dishonest in your way of discussing things.

I'm quite happy to move on from this ridiculous topic. However, you seem determined to push the demonstrably false narrative that COVID was "eliminated" and/or "eradicated" from NZ. It was not. Never. Not once. At best, it was suppressed for a few months at a time. That is the undeniable truth.

Any time you want to move along from this and discuss other items I've raised, I'm happy to do so. But as long as you keep trying to gaslight people into thinking COVID was "eliminated" from NZ, I will be happy to show data that shows just how demonstrably false that assertion is.

 

[stevil]

The pre-vaccination IFR was a fraction of a fraction of a fraction of a percent. I already posted a study showing that earlier in the thread. Also, young, healthy people were never at a very high risk. In many cases, young, healthy people (and I'm talking about people all the way up to age 65 or 70 in most cases) had experienced higher mortality from the flu in prior years than they did from COVID.

Death rates of Covid are way higher than for the flu

Except many of the excess deaths are not attributable to COVID. But you already knew that, since I already showed you.

I showed you the raw numbers and you complained.

2017 total deaths 33,342
2018 total deaths 33,225
2019 total deaths 34,260
2020 total deaths 32,613
2021 total deaths 34,932
2022 total deaths 38,574

This shows that 2022 was unusually high, with approximately 4K more deaths than usual
And lo and behold, NZ had 3,944 Covid deaths in 2022.

I already showed you this, however, you ignore it.

Good for you. Now, more than half of your population has been infected regardless of vaccination status, some multiple times. Your ostensible "elimination" was all for naught.

Not at all. Because prevaccination deaths are orders of magnitude higher than post vaccination deaths.

 

[probinson]

Death rates of Covid are way higher than for the flu

In the elderly, yes. In nearly every other age group, no.

2017 total deaths 33,342
2018 total deaths 33,225
2019 total deaths 34,260
2020 total deaths 32,613
2021 total deaths 34,932
2022 total deaths 38,574

This shows that 2022 was unusually high, with approximately 4K more deaths than usual
And lo and behold, NZ had 3,944 Covid deaths in 2022.

So you think every single excess death in NZ is attributable to COVID? Not even the most die-hard of covidians believe that...

Not at all. Because prevaccination deaths are orders of magnitude higher than post vaccination deaths.

Until you acknowledge the reality of age-stratification and stop talking in absolutes as if the risks are the same for all age groups, you are being incredibly, intentionally misleading.

 

[probinson]

Gain-of-function research continues to be probed by Congress due to the competing theories of the origins of the coronavirus: the lab-leak hypothesis and the natural-transmission hypothesis. The Energy Department joined the FBI in preferring the lab-leak hypothesis in February. Other agencies disagree.​

​

Ratcliffe weighed into the debate on Tuesday.​

​

“My informed assessment as a person with as much access as anyone during the initial year of the pandemic has been and continues to be that a lab leak is the only explanation credibly supported by our intelligence, by science, and by common sense,” he explained.​

​

“From a view inside the [intelligence community] if our intelligence and evidence supporting a lab-leak theory was placed side by side with our intelligence and evidence pointing to a natural-origins or spillover theory, the lab leak side of the ledger would be long, convincing, and overwhelming, while the spillover side would be nearly empty and tenuous,” said Ratcliffe. “Were this a trial, a preponderance of circumstantial evidence compiled by our intelligence would compel a jury finding of guilty to an accusation that coronavirus research in the Wuhan labs was responsible for the pandemic.”​

​

Fauci Testimony on Gain-of-Function Research Was ‘Inconsistent’ with Existing Intel, Says Ex-Director of National Intelligence

Former DNI John Ratcliffe told Congress that Fauci’s testimony under oath on gain-of-function research did not comport with the intelligence available at the time.

news.yahoo.com

​

​

​

 

[Ana the Ist]

Show many any statement I've made about smallpox that is innaccurate, rather than make a vacuous attack like this.
Focus on points, not on me.

I'm not interested in teaching you about smallpox vaccines if you don't understand anything about flu vaccines.

Yes, thanks for asking.


Read this and educate yourself.

Science | AAAS

www.science.org

I don't know what you're hoping to prove with this....

There's a growing body of evidence that getting flu shot year after year reduces its effectiveness. If that's the point you're making, then it's all the more reason to not get booster shots lol.

There are two aspects in play. Vaccines effectiveness wanes over time (this is not unique to the Covid vaccine),

No...as your article points out, some vaccines thought to last a lifetime may only retain 50% effectiveness decades later. It's interesting, but not at all relevant.

viruses, bacteria, fungus mutates over time. Omicron is more resistant to prior Covid vaccines and that is why there is the bivalent vaccine.

Oh that's not the issue either....

If you got vaccinated for Delta or Omicron or whatever....

Your vaccination is all but worthless around 8-9 months later.

The booster shot? That's for the same virus you already got vaccinated against. That's why it's a booster shot.

You see, only the covid vaccine is so ineffective that it requires constant boosters to remain effective. As there's a growing body of evidence that the boosters are probably not just losing effectiveness over time, but possibly making infection more Iikely....

We can say that the covid vaccines is arguably the worst vaccine ever made and mass distributed. Only time will tell if it's also the most damaging.