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Pandemic started in a lab:

stevil

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It is not. And it never has been. Did you know that the WHO isn't even recommending vaccinations for children now?
It's different now that countries have opened up and people have been vaccinated.

Twice in this paragraph, you claimed that NZ eliminated the disease. There were no qualifiers at all.
We did eliminate the disease.
And since you got all confused I took the time to elaborate and clarify further. And yet you continue to ignore the clarification and just whine and whinge rather than moving on with a conversation.

No mention of Omicron. No mention of "for long periods of time", no mention of your "shores". No, just an unqualified, chest-pounding statement, "We eliminated the disease entirely". Now it's abundantly obvious that you misspoke, and in an honest, good-faith discussion you would own up to that rather than blaming and flaming me for your failure to communicate what you meant to say effectively.
I didn't mis-speak. I'm not writing a novel here. I'm having a casual conversation. You obviously are just looking to argue with someone.
I never said we elimintated it forever, that is just a nutty position you hold and makes it impossible to have a civilised conversation with you.
 
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probinson

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Anywho, does anyone who thinks that lockdowns were beneficial want to discuss all-cause age-standardized mortality? Some in this thread have falsely declared what happened in Sweden in 2020 as "carnage", but in reality, Sweden had the EXACT SAME age-standardized mortality as New Zealand in 2020, and Sweden has had a lower age-standardized mortality rate than all of the countries that we've been discussing in this thread ever since.

Again, while lockdown advocates prefer to only look at COVID deaths, to understand the full impact of mitigation measures and their opportunity costs, it's important to look at ALL-CAUSE mortality. Otherwise, you'll miss that elderly people locked away in nursing homes were literally dying of loneliness (see the NPR article I posted earlier in this thread) as just one example. That's an opportunity cost of lockdowns.

So when we look at that data, we see, quite clearly that there was no "carnage" in Sweden. That is a vastly overblown, emotional statement that is simply not based in reality. And now, after "saving lives", New Zealand is doing considerably WORSE than Sweden.

So to recap, both Sweden and New Zealand experienced near identical all-cause age-standardized mortality in 2020, but since then, Sweden has fared far better, and New Zealand now has ~19% HIGHER age-standardized mortality than Sweden, and is trending worse each year. It's also worth noting that for all the crowing about New Zealand "saving lives", since 2015, New Zealand has had a HIGHER age-standardized mortality rate than Sweden every. single. year.

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probinson

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It's different now that countries have opened up and people have been vaccinated.

The WHO is just catching up to much of the rest of the world that stopped offering vaccines to children well over a year ago.
 
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KCfromNC

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I'm not sure a 4.6% increase from the prior five-year average is "significant".

And yet there was an effort to try and hide that in"significant" increase by averaging 2020's deaths with a pre-pandemic year. Pull the other one.

Sweden absolutely got it right.

So right the support for it was a chart with, if not fudged, certainly questionable presentation of the facts.

Indeed, an NIH study acknowledges this fact.

The observed excess deaths in Sweden during the pandemic may, in part, be explained by mortality displacement due to the low all-cause mortality in the previous year.
Interesting jump from "may, in part" to it being a "fact". Are the rest of the "facts" in similar posts on such shaky ground? If so, no wonder it is hard for anti-vaxx spin to be taken seriously.
 
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KCfromNC

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No we're not.

The post I was replying to seemed to excuse the increase in death rates in older people by showing numbers from younger groups, as if somehow it is OK to kill older people or something.

I reject outright the premise that the government is responsible for "killing" or "saving" people in the pandemic.

Then why all the energy spent about how Sweden got it right in their pandemic response?

Come on, pick a talking point and stick with it. All of this flip flopping just makes it look like the posts are excuses for pushing a predetermined conclusion.
 
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Merrill

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The post I was replying to seemed to excuse the increase in death rates in older people by showing numbers from younger groups, as if somehow it is OK to kill older people or something.



Then why all the energy spent about how Sweden got it right in their pandemic response?

Come on, pick a talking point and stick with it. All of this flip flopping just makes it look like the posts are excuses for pushing a predetermined conclusion.

The Swedish approach did work--I am not sure on what grounds you are claiming it didn't.

The COVID-19 deaths per 100k people in Sweden was better than 30 other European countries

virtually all of those countries locked-down, mandated masks, closed schools, etc. For those that point to Norway or Finland, and say those countries did better than Sweden, we have to understand that those places have lower populations and population density, younger citizens, etc.

as probinson pointed out, the reductions in deaths that may have occurred as a result of draconian mitigation efforts in places like Denmark, New Zealand, etc. were offset by deaths due to citizens losing access to medical care for other conditions, missing necessary screenings, indulging in drugs and alcohol out of loneliness and frustration, and suicide. To make matters worse, countries that locked down, such as the US, badly damaged their economies and educational systems. Kids missed years of instruction and their lifetime earnings were greatly reduced.

there was never any empirical evidence from studies that showed lockdowns would work. The political left signed on to the idea after watching China lockdown its population. And then everyone watched as the Chinese economy imploded, its social fabric unraveled, and people started rioting--then China abandoned the disastrous "zero-covid policy"

the other objective left-wing politicians had was to shut down churches and prosecute pastors. This whole thing was about control, not science
 
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stevil

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The COVID-19 deaths per 100k people in Sweden was better than 30 other European countries

virtually all of those countries locked-down, mandated masks, closed schools, etc. For those that point to Norway or Finland, and say those countries did better than Sweden, we have to understand that those places have lower populations and population density, younger citizens, etc.
Bulgaria, the worst on that chart, has only had 30% of their population with at least one vaccine dose.
Hungary, the second worst on the chart is controlled by the dictator Vickor Orban.
We could go down that list of worst 30.

Just because Sweden is fairing better than some other countries, doesn't mean that their Covid response wasn't disastrous.

This whole thing was about control, not science
No one wants to control people by implementing lock downs.
They did it to buy time to get the population vaccinated and hence save lives

The bizzaro world of Trump and USA right anti science, anti establishment, meant you guys didn't care about lives, just would rather be in opposition to what the world was doing.
 
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Merrill

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Bulgaria, the worst on that chart, has only had 30% of their population with at least one vaccine dose.
Hungary, the second worst on the chart is controlled by the dictator Vickor Orban.
We could go down that list of worst 30.

Just because Sweden is fairing better than some other countries, doesn't mean that their Covid response wasn't disastrous.


No one wants to control people by implementing lock downs.
They did it to buy time to get the population vaccinated and hence save lives

The bizzaro world of Trump and USA right anti science, anti establishment, meant you guys didn't care about lives, just would rather be in opposition to what the world was doing.

There are dozens of peer-reviewed studies that have shown the lockdowns had virtually no effect in stopping the spread of the virus. "A new Johns Hopkins University study finds lockdowns only prevented 0.2% of Covid-19 deaths and were “not an effective way of reducing mortality rates during a pandemic.”


countless examples from observed experience back this up, as I have shown with the mortality rate per 100k population. Denmark has half the population of Sweden, and had some of the strictest lockdown policies in Europe, and yet had 400,000 more registered infections. You say lockdowns were implemented "to buy time to get the population vaccinated"--but this was not based on any scientific studies. It was literally a guess by health officials, that turned out wrong.

Politicians and left-wing health officials systematically, and deliberately spread falsehoods and lies to the American public about the following:

1. That lockdowns work (they don't, and never should have been implemented)
2. That the vaccines would offer 100% protection against infection. Fauci, members of the CDC, and journalists (Rachael Maddow) repeated this claim even when they knew from studies and real-world data that it was wrong. Dozens of RCT studies confirm this.
3. That masks would stop the spread of the virus and greatly reduce infections and mortaity.

This was complete nonsense, and Fauci knew it. The Cochrane Library did an extensive meta-analysis of RCT studies that showed "wearing a mask may make little to no difference in how many people caught a flu‐like illness/COVID‐like illness"


The NIH itself remarked "“the failure of randomized controlled trials (RCTs) to provide supportive evidence” that masks worked


But the political left continues to push lies about these issues by pointing to bad non-peer-reviewed, non-RCT studies, or anecdotal evidence, to prove masks work. The is expounded upon here:


You see the problem with lying to the public about these things is that when we get another pandemic, no one i going to believe health officials, even if those officials are trying to do the right thing. The CDC lost all credibility during this fiasco. It got so bad that the CDC was telling people to wear masks in the fitness club while running and lifting weights, while the WHO was saying the complete opposite.
 
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DaisyDay

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There are dozens of peer-reviewed studies that have shown the lockdowns had virtually no effect in stopping the spread of the virus. "A new Johns Hopkins University study finds lockdowns only prevented 0.2% of Covid-19 deaths and were “not an effective way of reducing mortality rates during a pandemic.”

That John Hopkins study is applied economics, not infectious disease researchers.
countless examples from observed experience back this up, as I have shown with the mortality rate per 100k population. Denmark has half the population of Sweden, and had some of the strictest lockdown policies in Europe, and yet had 400,000 more registered infections. You say lockdowns were implemented "to buy time to get the population vaccinated"--but this was not based on any scientific studies. It was literally a guess by health officials, that turned out wrong.

Politicians and left-wing health officials systematically, and deliberately spread falsehoods and lies to the American public about the following:

1. That lockdowns work (they don't, and never should have been implemented)
2. That the vaccines would offer 100% protection against infection. Fauci, members of the CDC, and journalists (Rachael Maddow) repeated this claim even when they knew from studies and real-world data that it was wrong. Dozens of RCT studies confirm this.
3. That masks would stop the spread of the virus and greatly reduce infections and mortaity.

This was complete nonsense, and Fauci knew it. The Cochrane Library did an extensive meta-analysis of RCT studies that showed "wearing a mask may make little to no difference in how many people caught a flu‐like illness/COVID‐like illness"




To put it simply, this means that the authors did not find enough good-quality evidence to make a firm conclusion about masks. Indeed, the authors specifically acknowledge that the “true effect” of face masks may be different to the aggregate impact that they found in their model.

If this sounds different to what the lead author proclaimed in his public statements, well, yes. It is. The actual review is quite clear that the evidence around face masks in general is uncertain, which is dramatically different from the presentation of these results in the media.





The NIH itself remarked "“the failure of randomized controlled trials (RCTs) to provide supportive evidence” that masks worked


Did you read the nih paper or simply quote-mine it? Because it does not conclude what you said.
But the political left continues to push lies about these issues by pointing to bad non-peer-reviewed, non-RCT studies, or anecdotal evidence, to prove masks work. The is expounded upon here:


You see the problem with lying to the public about these things is that when we get another pandemic, no one i going to believe health officials, even if those officials are trying to do the right thing. The CDC lost all credibility during this fiasco. It got so bad that the CDC was telling people to wear masks in the fitness club while running and lifting weights, while the WHO was saying the complete opposite.
RCT studies are not the be all and end all as there are times when that would be highly unethical.
 
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Merrill

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That John Hopkins study is applied economics, not infectious disease researchers.



To put it simply, this means that the authors did not find enough good-quality evidence to make a firm conclusion about masks. Indeed, the authors specifically acknowledge that the “true effect” of face masks may be different to the aggregate impact that they found in their model.
If this sounds different to what the lead author proclaimed in his public statements, well, yes. It is. The actual review is quite clear that the evidence around face masks in general is uncertain, which is dramatically different from the presentation of these results in the media.







Did you read the nih paper or simply quote-mine it? Because it does not conclude what you said.

RCT studies are not the be all and end all as there are times when that would be highly unethical.
No, the Cochrane paper is not "applied economics" --it is a meta-study, and Cochrane studies are some of the most respected in the field.

there are many RCT studies, and meta-studies that have shown masks are minimally effective at stopping respiratory virus like SARS, influenza, etc. Here is another


"We identified 6 clinical studies (3 RCTs, 1 cohort study and 2 case–control studies) and 23 surrogate exposure studies. In the meta-analysis of the clinical studies, we found no significant difference between N95 respirators and surgical masks in associated risk of (a) laboratory-confirmed respiratory infection"

A Spanish COVID study showed that mask requirements in schools did not lead to lower infection rates in kids. The kids who were forced to wear masks, didn't do any better than the kids who didn't wear masks


States in the US which had strict mask mandates, and a high compliance rate, like Illinois, did not have lower infection rates than states which did not have mandates, and very few people wore them

Masks never worked anywhere, but politicians had to be seen as "doing something" about COVID, so the implemented these mandates.
 
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DaisyDay

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No, the Cochrane paper is not "applied economics" --it is a meta-study, and Cochrane studies are some of the most respected in the field.
Um, the John Hopkins report by economists is not the same as the Cochrane report. You listed them both and I addressed them separately. Did you not even read them?

And yes, Cochrane studies are generally among the best and most respected, but this one fell short.


there are many RCT studies, and meta-studies that have shown masks are minimally effective at stopping respiratory virus like SARS, influenza, etc. Here is another


"We identified 6 clinical studies (3 RCTs, 1 cohort study and 2 case–control studies) and 23 surrogate exposure studies. In the meta-analysis of the clinical studies, we found no significant difference between N95 respirators and surgical masks in associated risk of (a) laboratory-confirmed respiratory infection"
Wait, what? The report you link to is a meta study, a study of studies, not a RCT study. Do you read your links? This one said that there was insufficient data to draw conclusions.

A Spanish COVID study showed that mask requirements in schools did not lead to lower infection rates in kids. The kids who were forced to wear masks, didn't do any better than the kids who didn't wear masks

From your link above: "The researchers stress, however, that the results of this work – which is yet to be peer-reviewed or published in a scientific review – cannot be extrapolated to other environments, such as a cinema or shopping mall. "

Do you understand what that means or should someone explain it to you?
States in the US which had strict mask mandates, and a high compliance rate, like Illinois, did not have lower infection rates than states which did not have mandates, and very few people wore them
Cite?
Masks never worked anywhere, but politicians had to be seen as "doing something" about COVID, so the implemented these mandates.
Too bad we did not test and quarantine, in addition to masks.
 
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Merrill

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Um, the John Hopkins report by economists is not the same as the Cochrane report. You listed them both and I addressed them separately. Did you not even read them?

And yes, Cochrane studies are generally among the best and most respected, but this one fell short.



Wait, what? The report you link to is a meta study, a study of studies, not a RCT study. Do you read your links? This one said that there was insufficient data to draw conclusions.


From your link above: "The researchers stress, however, that the results of this work – which is yet to be peer-reviewed or published in a scientific review – cannot be extrapolated to other environments, such as a cinema or shopping mall. "

Do you understand what that means or should someone explain it to you?

Cite?

Too bad we did not test and quarantine, in addition to masks.

The Cochrane report did not "fall short". You literally linked to a blog post of some guy saying it is a "fiasco" --that doesn't mean anything. The report was well-received and is important

You can have a meta-study that is comprised of RCTs --do I really need to point out something that basic?

The Bangladesh study that mask advocates like to cite has huge problems. The researchers did not adjust for correlation, made faulty assumptions, and manipulated numbers. The issues with it are outlined here:

and to further my point, here is a survey of RCT studies involving masks and influenza

look specifically at table 1 and 2

I can literally post another 50 RCT studies that have similar conclusions.

so you are wrong, and this is why:

1. The evidence from RCT studies, scientists, etc. is overwhelmingly in support of the claim that neither surgical or N95 masks stop the spread of influenza/SARS/COVID. Just because a handful of studies come to a different conclusion (most of them non-RCT, non-peer-reviewed, or deeply flawed) does not mean we start claiming masks work--they don't.

2. From observed experience and data, we say that all over the world, the infection rate of COVID-19 was not slowed or stopped by masks. The Spanish school study formally confirms this. Texas had very few mask mandates and very low compliance. California had strict mask mandates for over 2 years. California had 4 million more COVID-19 cases than Texas.

3. Dr. Fauci himself claimed in 2020 "The typical mask you buy in the drug store is not really effective in keeping out virus, which is small enough to pass through material" --and later tried to retract this statement after getting political pressure

My son caught COVID in a college classroom where everyone was masked and vaccinated.

you can believe what you want, but the political left has latched on to this mask thing and won't let it go, no matter the amount of evidence that is shown to them. A mask is a political / ideological statement, or a "MAGA hat for leftists"
 
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DaisyDay

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The Cochrane report did not "fall short". You literally linked to a blog post of some guy saying it is a "fiasco" --that doesn't mean anything. The report was well-received and is important
I gave you several links - did you bother to read them or understand what they were saying as to why this report was a fiasco? The report was only well-received by a certain faction and is not actually important. At least, this "some guy" is an actual medical doctor who does research.
You can have a meta-study that is comprised of RCTs --do I really need to point out something that basic?
Yes, you can but you said it was "a" study of RCT not a meta study that included a few. Nevertheless, their conclusion was that the data was unclear.
The Bangladesh study that mask advocates like to cite has huge problems. The researchers did not adjust for correlation, made faulty assumptions, and manipulated numbers. The issues with it are outlined here:
Jeffrey H. Anderson is a conservative think tank guy. He objects that the Bangladesh study randomize villages instead of individual people. That's a peculiar argument that I find unpersuasive.

and to further my point, here is a survey of RCT studies involving masks and influenza
[/QUOTE]
No, it is not a survey of RCTs - some included were and some were not. Seems inconclusive:
"There is some evidence to support the wearing of masks or respirators during illness to protect others, and public health emphasis on mask wearing during illness may help to reduce influenza virus transmission. There are fewer data to support the use of masks or respirators to prevent becoming infected. Further studies in controlled settings and studies of natural infections in healthcare and community settings are required to better define the effectiveness of face masks and respirators in preventing influenza virus transmission."

look specifically at table 1 and 2

I can literally post another 50 RCT studies that have similar conclusions.

so you are wrong, and this is why:

1. The evidence from RCT studies, scientists, etc. is overwhelmingly in support of the claim that neither surgical or N95 masks stop the spread of influenza/SARS/COVID. Just because a handful of studies come to a different conclusion (most of them non-RCT, non-peer-reviewed, or deeply flawed) does not mean we start claiming masks work--they don't.

2. From observed experience and data, we say that all over the world, the infection rate of COVID-19 was not slowed or stopped by masks. The Spanish school study formally confirms this. Texas had very few mask mandates and very low compliance. California had strict mask mandates for over 2 years. California had 4 million more COVID-19 cases than Texas.

3. Dr. Fauci himself claimed in 2020 "The typical mask you buy in the drug store is not really effective in keeping out virus, which is small enough to pass through material" --and later tried to retract this statement after getting political pressure

My son caught COVID in a college classroom where everyone was masked and vaccinated.

you can believe what you want, but the political left has latched on to this mask thing and won't let it go, no matter the amount of evidence that is shown to them. A mask is a political / ideological statement, or a "MAGA hat for leftists"
Well, we'll see.
 
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probinson

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I gave you several links - did you bother to read them or understand what they were saying as to why this report was a fiasco?

Oh well, why didn't you say so? "Several links" certainly trumps the HUNDREDS OF HOURS OF RESEARCH in the Cochrane Review on masking that dates back to the mid-2000's. You can't possibly believe that, can you?

Why are you rejecting a peer-reviewed study and instead taking the word of bloggers? You know, there is a proper way to dispute/challenge/respond to a Cochrane Review if you disagree with it. Blogging, writing op-eds and tweeting about it isn't how you do it. If they take issue with the review, they should follow the proper protocol for responding. But that's not the goal. The goal is to lazily convince anyone who will listen that this was a "fiasco", even though the conclusions have remained unchanged for more than a decade.

This is all a bit of a pointless discussion now anyway, other than making sure the fools who implemented foolish, untested, uselesss mask mandates and lockdowns NEVER do it again.

I just spent 3 days in NYC. The vast majority of people have outright rejected masking. What a contrast from last year when I was in NYC and the mask nazis were everywhere. Broadway shows, streets, stores, subways, buses.... nary a mask in sight anywhere. I'd guess that maybe somewhere <1% of the masses of people I saw were still masking. I'd venture it's because the vast majority of people have realized that slapping a piece of loosely-fitted cloth over your face does NOTHING to prevent or even reduce viral transmission.
 
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probinson

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Then why all the energy spent about how Sweden got it right in their pandemic response?

Sweden "got it right" by mostly staying out of it. Those on your side of this debate seem to think that we need public health "experts" (but only the ones that say what you want to hear) to mandate things and tell us what we must do to "protect" ourselves. Sweden did no such thing. Their hands-off approach has resulted in fewer excess deaths than nearly anywhere in Europe.
 
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Say it aint so

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Sweden "got it right" by mostly staying out of it. Those on your side of this debate seem to think that we need public health "experts" (but only the ones that say what you want to hear) to mandate things and tell us what we must do to "protect" ourselves. Sweden did no such thing. Their hands-off approach has resulted in fewer excess deaths than nearly anywhere in Europe.
Well there you go. Sweden got it right, but once they realized they had to make changes because they were losing control, to you they succumbed to the "propaganda". LOL.
 
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probinson

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Well there you go. Sweden got it right, but once they realized they had to make changes because they were losing control, to you they succumbed to the "propaganda". LOL.

I have no idea what you're talking about. At NO POINT were masks and lockdowns mandated in Sweden.

No one got EVERYTHING right, which is understandable given the volatile nature of the pandemic, but Sweden's almost completely hands-off approach has been vindicated by them having the lowest excess deaths in Europe over the last 3 years.
 
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Say it aint so

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I have no idea what you're talking about. At NO POINT were masks and lockdowns mandated in Sweden.

No one got EVERYTHING right, which is understandable given the volatile nature of the pandemic, but Sweden's almost completely hands-off approach has been vindicated by them having the lowest excess deaths in Europe over the last 3 years.
I am talking about the person who claimed the only reason Sweden made crackdown changes is because they fell for the propaganda. I'm sure I can find those posts just by clicking back on your name several times.
 
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probinson

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I am talking about the person who claimed the only reason Sweden made crackdown changes is because they fell for the propaganda.

What "changes"? You seem to be implying that Sweden drastically changed their pandemic strategy. But they really didn't. There were recommendations, but no mandates.

I'm sure I can find those posts just by clicking back on your name several times.

I believe that Sweden did implement very few policy changes as a result of propaganda, but it's not that they fell for the propaganda. It's that people on your side of this debate were loudly screaming (falsely) how horrific the Swedish response to the pandemic was. And who could blame you? No one wanted a control group in this "experiment".

All over the world, the news media blared about how they were experimenting with people's lives (despite the fact that Sweden was perhaps the ONLY nation that actually followed a pre-established plan while everyone else implemented untested and unproven lockdowns and masking).

Well, now we know the results of that "experiment", and it has been a smashing success.

Unknown.png
 
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