Pandemic started in a lab:

[Ana the Ist]

The current state of this is that some (definitely not all) agencies think that the lab leak hypothesis is more likely than others to be true, but they're not very confident in that assessment.

That's not a ringing endorsement of it. It's still true that the people pushing the theory a couple years ago were talking out of their back sides, likely for political reasons, with no evidence to back up their claims. You guys have not been vindicated.

How about now?

Are we vindicated now that the sole research paper that Fauci funded, approved, and lied about 6 weeks later when he held it up as proof that the lab leak was unlikely is basically debunked as part of a cover up....

And we know he approved millions in grants to other experts who came to him saying that the virus appeared to be made in a lab....and then quickly changed their story days later.

How about now? Are we moving from low confidence to high confidence yet?

 

[whatbogsends]

I think people have a hard time remembering covid here in the US. To sit and wait for natural immunity to take effect without masks or school clousures or lock-downs would have exacerbated our already overworked first responders and overran ICUs. Remember, that situation was at hand even WITH masks and lock-downs. Deaths would be far more than they are now. I recall Sweden kind of went the business as usual herd immunity route, but later had to resort to masks and lock-downs. So yeah, I question those who think this revelation about natural immunity without the usage of masks, lock-downs and school closures would have been just fine.

Need a cite for Sweden "later had to resort to masks and lock-downs". That's revisionist history.

They now stand as one of the best performing countries in terms of excess deaths since the start of the pandemic.

 

[probinson]

I really enjoy your well thought out and researched posts. There are so many out there that are so sold on what we did in the US as being necessary and we need well informed people.like you to counter the nonsense with the facts and truth. Backed up with actual information and not just opinions.

Thank you for the kind words.

You are correct that many people just believe what they were told. But it's worse than that. Even when you show them demonstrable proof that these things weren't necessary (re: Sweden) and ask them why the government never had any of these brilliant ideas before, and wny the pandemic preparedness plans based on decades of established, sound science was abandoned, they will still choose to believe what they were told in the face of mountains of evidence that proves otherwise.

 

[Say it aint so]

Need a cite for Sweden "later had to resort to masks and lock-downs". That's revisionist history.

They now stand as one of the best performing countries in terms of excess deaths since the start of the pandemic.

Not at all revisionist. Covid-19 pandemic: Sweden reverses face mask guidelines for public transport. I also know they cut the number of people gathering in public places in half. Going from in class leaning to distance leaning means those schools they once attended are locked down. Full lock down, no, yet they seen they had to make changes.

 

[probinson]

Not at all revisionist. Covid-19 pandemic: Sweden reverses face mask guidelines for public transport.

Your article states this.

Sweden's government is recommending wearing face masks on public transport during the rush hour, reversing its earlier Covid guidance.​

It will also cut from the current eight to four per table the number of people sitting together in restaurants, and ban alcohol sales after 20:00.​

​

Let's break it down. Sweden recommended masking for public transport during rush hour. This is not remotely the same thing as mandating masks everywhere you go.

Here's an article with a photo from 2021. Check out al the people without masks. Of everyone visible in the photo, only three are wearing masks. I've highlighted the caption that says Sweden doesn't have a mask mandate.

Source: No-lockdown Sweden broke with most of the world and didn't require face masks. Those who wear them say they're treated with suspicion and abuse.

Here's another article that explains that parts of Sweden had originally banned masks, but even after the mask recommendation was made, compliance was very low.

Swedish authorities maintained their anti-mask position until December, when the prime minister, Stefan Lofven, announced a U-turn on the use of masks on public transport. ​

​

But Lofven’s new policy was not a simple rule to wear masks when travelling. Instead, it recommends the use of masks from 7am to 9am and 4pm to 6pm, for those born “in 2004 and before” who do not have a reserved seat. If this sounds overly complicated, that’s because it is. ​

​

It is perhaps unsurprising, then, that compliance has been low, with only half of commuters actually wearing masks during rush hour.​

​

COVID: why are Swedish towns banning masks?

Masks between 7am and 9am for those born before 2005 – Sweden’s coronavirus policies are unnecessarily confusing.

theconversation.com

I also know they cut the number of people gathering in public places in half. Going from in class leaning to distance leaning means those schools they once attended are locked down. Full lock down, no, yet they seen they had to make changes.

So yes, it is quite revisionist to claim that Sweden reversed their policies. In response to a immense public pressure campaign that tried to paint Sweden as callously gambling with its citizens' lives, some extremely limited recommendations were made. But compliance was exceedingly low even when those recommendations were made.

Sweden far and away took the most relaxed approach to COVID mitigation, yet now boasts the lowest excess death numbers in Europe.

 

[Say it aint so]

Your article states this.

Sweden's government is recommending wearing face masks on public transport during the rush hour, reversing its earlier Covid guidance.​

It will also cut from the current eight to four per table the number of people sitting together in restaurants, and ban alcohol sales after 20:00.​

​

Let's break it down. Sweden recommended masking for public transport during rush hour. This is not remotely the same thing as mandating masks everywhere you go.

Here's an article with a photo from 2021. Check out al the people without masks. Of everyone visible in the photo, only three are wearing masks. I've highlighted the caption that says Sweden doesn't have a mask mandate.

View attachment 329041

Source: No-lockdown Sweden broke with most of the world and didn't require face masks. Those who wear them say they're treated with suspicion and abuse.

Here's another article that explains that parts of Sweden had originally banned masks, but even after the mask recommendation was made, compliance was very low.

Swedish authorities maintained their anti-mask position until December, when the prime minister, Stefan Lofven, announced a U-turn on the use of masks on public transport. ​

​

But Lofven’s new policy was not a simple rule to wear masks when travelling. Instead, it recommends the use of masks from 7am to 9am and 4pm to 6pm, for those born “in 2004 and before” who do not have a reserved seat. If this sounds overly complicated, that’s because it is. ​

​

It is perhaps unsurprising, then, that compliance has been low, with only half of commuters actually wearing masks during rush hour.​

​

COVID: why are Swedish towns banning masks?

Masks between 7am and 9am for those born before 2005 – Sweden’s coronavirus policies are unnecessarily confusing.

theconversation.com

So yes, it is quite revisionist to claim that Sweden reversed their policies. In response to a immense public pressure campaign that tried to paint Sweden as callously gambling with its citizens' lives, some extremely limited recommendations were made. But compliance was exceedingly low even when those recommendations were made.

Sweden far and away took the most relaxed approach to COVID mitigation, yet now boasts the lowest excess death numbers in Europe.

Hey. Were done. I really don't have anything to say to someone who thinks the reason why Sweden changed course is because they fell for the propaganda.

 

[probinson]

Hey. Were done. I really don't have anything to say to someone who thinks the reason why Sweden changed course is because they fell for the propaganda.

That's cool. No one's making you respond to me. Feel free to ignore me and the literal mountains of evidence that the mitigation measures enacted all over the world in direct opposition to established pandemic preparedness plans based on decades of sound science were a COMPLETE FAILURE and exacted IMMENSE, UNNECESSARY collateral damage on our society.

Have you read The Lockdown Files? I highly recommend it if you haven't. You get a firsthand look at WhatsApp messages from Matt Hancock in the UK and you'll get a real understanding of just how slipshod and unscientific all of these recommendations were.

Here are some excerpts.

Wait... public opinion? Press aides with no scientific background involved in shaping pandemic policy? Oh, but it gets worse...

Lockdowns based on "very wrong" data? How could that be? These people are "experts", aren't they?

Do yourself a favor and take some time to read the actual messages between the people that were responsible for the disastrous COVID policies at the height of the pandemic in the UK. Read how they want to "deploy the new variant" to "frighten the pants off everyone" to get them to comply with their ill-advised lockdown.

The Lockdown Files

The Telegraph has obtained more than 100,000 WhatsApp messages sent between the then health secretary Matt Hancock and other ministers and officials at the height of the coronavirus pandemic. In the Lockdown Files we reveal the contents of those messages – and the serious questions they raise

www.telegraph.co.uk

You are being willfully blind if you read these messages and still believe that politics, popular opinion and propaganda were not SIGNIFICANT factors is all things COVID, in almost all cases taking precedence over actual science and public health.

With regards to Sweden, no one who is being honest would suggest that Sweden didn't take a completely different path than much of the rest of the world in terms of COVID response. Yet the results speak for themselves. I'll post it again, in case you missed it the first time.

It can be hard to come to the realization that all of the sacrifices forced upon us over the last 3 years was all for naught. But as more data is released, it's becoming more and more clear that the people steering the ship had no idea what they were doing and were really, REALLY bad at their jobs. These people can NEVER AGAIN be allowed to do this. It is imperative that there be a complete and thorough investigation into who knew what and when, and where all of these ineffective mitigation measures originated from. It's clear that the idea that the powers-that-be were just "following the science" was nonsense.

 

[probinson]

With regards to the pandemic origins, Paul Thacker, who has run investigations for the US senate looking into corruption in science and medicine, has published a public strategy for how Congress can investigate the NIH and the pandemic origins cover-up. This is an excellent read and is worth your time if you want to understand the lengths that the US government went to in an attempt to classify anyone who even entertained the lab-leak theory as a "conspiracy theorist".

Follow the documents, follow the money​

Documents show that virologists seeded science journals with papers to fool the public and media into believing a lab accident was a “conspiracy theory.” Follow the documents, follow the money.​

​

How Congress Can Investigate the Pandemic Origins Cover-up

Researchers and the National Institutes of Health gamed the science. Follow the documents, follow the money.

disinformationchronicle.substack.com

​

 

[probinson]

Today, more evidence emerged that pandemic mitigation measures were not implemented as a result of scientific rigor, but because of... checks notes... tweets and op-eds in the New York Times?!

Digging a little more, I discovered that Tufekci began promoting herself as a mask expert, long before she had co-authored this single paper in 2021. As the New York Times reported, a March 2020 Tufekci tweetstorm followed by a Tufekci New York Times essay convinced the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) to alter federal guidance and advise all Americans above the age of 2 to wear masks.​

​

You don’t need an advanced degree in epidemiology to be alarmed that the CDC sets pandemic policy because of tweets and a Times essay, but Tufekci also tweeted that she promoted masks in two meetings with the World Health Organization.​

​

Neither scholar nor journalist, Tufekci ignores academic rigor by posing as professor and then peer reviewing research in her own Times’ essays. She then flouts journalistic ethics by failing to report facts that don’t fit her academic opinion.​

​

Unmasking the New York Times’ Zeynep Tufekci

Neither scholar nor journalist, a media influencer cuts down competitors in an academic knife fight.

disinformationchronicle.substack.com

It may be that the mask-zealots stubborn refusal to acknowledge that masking is almost certainly pointless theater becomes their undoing. The authors of the Cochrane Review on masking aren't taking kindly to being attacked, and they've formulated a plan of response. Stay tuned...

 

[stevil]

Need a cite for Sweden "later had to resort to masks and lock-downs". That's revisionist history.

They now stand as one of the best performing countries in terms of excess deaths since the start of the pandemic.

Sweden population 10 million had 23,777 Covid deaths
Finland population 5.5 million had 8,967 Covid deaths
Norway population 5.4 million had 5,213 Covid deaths
Denmark population 5.8 million had 8,322 Covid deaths

New Zealand population 5 million had 2,560 Covid related deaths.

It seems to me that Sweden's Covid response was disastrous and led to around 10,000 preventable deaths.

 

[Chris35]

If it did come from the lab could of been God that caused it to leak... they might of been close to a much stronger virus.

Now they have vaccines against it, it would imo push their research way back, its screwed up their delivery system.

 

[stevil]

If it did come from the lab could of been God that caused it to leak... they might of been close to a much stronger virus.

Now they have vaccines against it, it would imo push their research way back, its screwed up their delivery system.

Surely, if there is a god and if it was interested in reducing human misery and death, it would have come up with a much better approach than what we have recently been through. Millions dead.

 

[probinson]

Sweden population 10 million had 23,777 Covid deaths
Finland population 5.5 million had 8,967 Covid deaths
Norway population 5.4 million had 5,213 Covid deaths
Denmark population 5.8 million had 8,322 Covid deaths

New Zealand population 5 million had 2,560 Covid related deaths.

It seems to me that Sweden's Covid response was disastrous and led to around 10,000 preventable deaths.

This myopic focus on COVID deaths is odd. You do know that people die from other causes, right? What good is reducing COVID deaths if you simply trade them to other causes at a higher rate than normal?

Take a look at this chart again, comparing excess deaths in Europe.

So as you can see, the number of excess deaths in Sweden is the lowest in Europe. It matters not that other countries had fewer COVID deaths when it is clear they had deaths from other causes at levels considerably above normal levels.

Sweden was perhaps the ONLY country in the world that adhered to established pandemic preparedness plans that had been developed based on decades of sound science. The rest of the world tried untested, unproven mitigation measures. The results are striking.

 

[stevil]

This myopic focus on COVID deaths is odd. You do know that people die from other causes, right? What good is reducing COVID deaths if you simply trade them to other causes at a higher rate than normal?

Take a look at this chart again, comparing excess deaths in Europe.

View attachment 329059

So as you can see, the number of excess deaths in Sweden is the lowest in Europe. It matters not that other countries had fewer COVID deaths when it is clear they had deaths from other causes at levels considerably above normal levels.

Sweden was perhaps the ONLY country in the world that adhered to established pandemic preparedness plans that had been developed based on decades of sound science. The rest of the world tried untested, unproven mitigation measures. The results are striking.

Thanks for the chart. I'll look into this further. It's an interesting data point. I don't agree with your implications/conclusions but I will take a deeper look.

 

[probinson]

Thanks for the chart. I'll look into this further. It's an interesting data point. I don't agree with your implications/conclusions but I will take a deeper look.

I will be very interested to hear what conclusions you draw after looking into the excess mortality data for yourself.

 

[stevil]

I will be very interested to hear what conclusions you draw after looking into the excess mortality data for yourself.

I have just started on this journey. But here is a chart from Our World in Data. This seems to contradict what you provided.

Excess mortality: Cumulative deaths from all causes compared to projection based on previous years

The percentage difference between the cumulative number of reported deaths since 1 January 2020 and the cumulative projected deaths for the same period based on previous years.

ourworldindata.org

It also makes sense to recognise that excess mortality is based on the previous year(s). So you would expect, once people are either vaccinated, have already recovered from Covid or the vulnerable have already died from Covid, that future years will come more inline.
That first year, was an absolute shocker for Sweeden, then for all these countries the cumulative morbidity rate dropped after the vaccine was introduced, then I presume it rose again for the other countries, but at a much less steep rate that (Sweeden) experienced, as they started to open up from the lockdowns.

An observer would expect Sweeden's 2022 to look better than 20/21 because they had absolute carnage in 20/21 and so people have already been exposed to Covid (prior to the release of the vaccine) and hence experienced the 5-10x higher deathrate chances that those who are unvaccinated endure, but in the process (for the survivers) they have gained immunity.

But still I will look further to understand fully this case of Sweeden.

 

[probinson]

I have just started on this journey. But here is a chart from Our World in Data. This seems to contradict what you provided.

Excess mortality: Cumulative deaths from all causes compared to projection based on previous years

The percentage difference between the cumulative number of reported deaths since 1 January 2020 and the cumulative projected deaths for the same period based on previous years.

ourworldindata.org

Not sure how. Here's another chart showing Sweden's excess mortality.

Source: Sweden, Covid and 'excess deaths': a look at the data

It also makes sense to recognise that excess mortality is based on the previous year(s).

Yes, five years to be exact. In the graphic I posted above, it compares COVID era deaths against the 5-year average of deaths between 2015 and 2019.

So you would expect, once people are either vaccinated, have already recovered from Covid or the vulnerable have already died from Covid, that future years will come more inline.

Indeed, which is all the more concerning why we're now seeing excess mortality increasing in many countries. One would expect a normalization of the excess mortality data, not an increase.

That first year, was an absolute shocker for Sweeden, then for all these countries the cumulative morbidity rate dropped after the vaccine was introduced,

Except it didn't. Excess mortality is a genuine concern. The UK experienced the worst excess mortality figures in 50 years.

Excess deaths in 2022 among worst in 50 years

New figures show more than 650,000 people died in the UK last year.

www.bbc.com

An observer would expect Sweeden's 2022 to look better than 20/21 because they had absolute carnage in 20/21 and so people have already been exposed to Covid (prior to the release of the vaccine) and hence experienced the 5-10x higher deathrate chances that those who are unvaccinated endure, but in the process (for the survivers) they have gained immunity.

Agreed. This is what should be happening everywhere. So it's a bit concerning that countries that masked and social distanced and locked down and did everything "right" are experiencing more excess mortality than Sweden that did almost none of those things, wouldn't you say?

 

[stevil]

Agreed. This is what should be happening everywhere. So it's a bit concerning that countries that masked and social distanced and locked down and did everything "right" are experiencing more excess mortality than Sweden that did almost none of those things, wouldn't you say?

Well, the spread and impact in Sweden was very high initially, they didn't even try to flatten the curve.

Other countries flattened the curve and bought time for their people to get vaccinated. So latter once, once Sweeden had had a large number of their population with "natural" immunity, many of these other countries where only just beginning to get vaccine immunity.

Eventually when these other countries opened up (removed lockdown restrictions and travel restrictions) then the virus got to spread, but at a lower curve and the vulnerable people were now exposed (however now with a 10x less likely change of death), so you would expect there death rate to go up, and Sweeden's to go down (because Sweeden's vulnerable had already died)
I presume we aren't disputing the above.

This new claim is that there have been deaths related to Covid measures, i.e. related to lockdowns, such as suicide and domestic assaults????
And that this increase of death has outweighed the amount of people saved by the vaccine and restrictions.

This is what I am looking into. Once work finishes I'll have time to do research.

 

[stevil]

Agreed. This is what should be happening everywhere. So it's a bit concerning that countries that masked and social distanced and locked down and did everything "right" are experiencing more excess mortality than Sweden that did almost none of those things, wouldn't you say?

The bulk of the Covid Deaths in NZ were incurred in 2022. In 2020 we had 30 deaths, in 2021 we had 29 deaths in 2022 we had 3944

in 2017 total deaths were 33,342, in 2018 were 33225, in 2019 were 34,260, in 2020 were 32,613 so around 32.6 to 34.2 but in 2022 we had 38,574 which is about 4k more than usual. we had almost 4k Covid deaths in 2022. So this almost entirely accounts for the uptake.

If you look at Norway you get a very similar picture. Most of their Covid deaths occured in 2022. (3,505). Their uptake in deaths in 2022 was 3,775 on the previous year. So the bulk of the uptake was due to Covid deaths.
You get a similar picture for Denmark and Finland too. Their most Covid deaths were in 2022 and it is the bulk of the excess deaths that year.

For Sweden their biggest year for Covid deaths was 2020 with 9,706 deaths. and looking at their overall deaths 2020 had around 10K more deaths that the previous year. In 2022 Sweden had 7,028 Covid deaths and overall 2022 was almost 6,000 more than 2019, so the Covid deaths account for the vast bulk of the uptick.


Given the above, this idea that excess deaths from lockdown measures is not true for these countries. The excess deaths are a very similar number as the Covid accounted deaths. There is a slight deviation and I'm sure many people will try to work out what that means.
Some people will say that Covid deaths are undercounted, and I would lean this way.
For people saying the difference is domestic assault leading to death or suicide, well they need to show the data. What is the uptick on those numbers?

The data above is showing a high correlation between excess deaths and Covid deaths so it will be very interesting to extrapolate over the world numbers, especially third world countries which haven't had the capacity to test for Covid. I think we will find the following:
Total world Covid deaths will be in excess of 30 million people.
Death rates per country will be able to be derived from vaccination uptake rates.
Calculation will be this. Total poplulation vacinated times by 0.1% + total population unvacinated times by 1%
There will need to be some adjustment for how overcrowded hospitals were. Countries like Sweden which didn't flatten the curve might have had significant deaths due to hospital care being not available for even non Covid relation patients.

For references of these numbers - total deaths per year, total covid deaths per year, they can be found on the following sites

Sweden excess deaths 2023| Statista

Sweden saw a period of excess deaths in 2022, caused by the COVID-19 pandemic.

www.statista.com

Sweden COVID - Coronavirus Statistics - Worldometer

Sweden Coronavirus update with statistics and graphs: total and new cases, deaths per day, mortality and recovery rates, current active cases, recoveries, trends and timeline.

www.worldometers.info

 

[probinson]

Well, the spread and impact in Sweden was very high initially, they didn't even try to flatten the curve.

Much of Sweden's problems at the beginning were related to ill-advised policies in long-term care facilities, much like in the US.

Other countries flattened the curve and bought time for their people to get vaccinated. So latter once, once Sweeden had had a large number of their population with "natural" immunity, many of these other countries where only just beginning to get vaccine immunity.

I'm pleased to see you acknowledge natural immunity. It's been tough to get most people to acknowledge that natural immunity is a thing.

Eventually when these other countries opened up (removed lockdown restrictions and travel restrictions) then the virus got to spread, but at a lower curve

Lower curve? Not so much.

Consider South Korea's curve vs. the United States.

The spike of cases in South Korea was almost 3.5x greater than the US, and that was with much higher compliance in vaccination and masking.

and the vulnerable people were now exposed (however now with a 10x less likely change of death), so you would expect there death rate to go up, and Sweeden's to go down (because Sweeden's vulnerable had already died)
I presume we aren't disputing the above.

Why would you expect the excess death rate to rise in highly vaccinated countries once they opened up? Wasn't the whole point of the lockdowns so that everyone could get vaccinated and reduce death? Sure, there might be a small spike when the vulnerable are exposed to the virus, but if the vaccines really were 95% effective at preventing severe disease and death as we were told, why would you expect a country like the UK, that did masking and lockdowns and all the "right" things, to have the worst excess mortality in 50 years?

This new claim is that there have been deaths related to Covid measures, i.e. related to lockdowns, such as suicide and domestic assaults????
And that this increase of death has outweighed the amount of people saved by the vaccine and restrictions.

This isn't a "new" claim. There was ALWAYS going to be collateral damage from the untested, draconian measures implemented to stop COVID. The complete abandonment of scientifically sound pandemic preparedness plans and the myopic focus on COVID caused people to only monitor one disease to the exclusion of all else. It's like the public health community universally suddenly forgot that there are a million other ways people could die and only cared about COVID deaths. This was an obvious mistake from the beginning. Heck even a novice like me was saying back in 2020 that we weren't saving lives, but just trading them to other causes.

John Ioannidis wrote a paper way back on March 17, 2020 at the outset of the pandemic that warned about this very thing (emphasis added).

One of the bottom lines is that we don’t know how long social distancing measures and lockdowns can be maintained without major consequences to the economy, society, and mental health. Unpredictable evolutions may ensue, including financial crisis, unrest, civil strife, war, and a meltdown of the social fabric. At a minimum, we need unbiased prevalence and incidence data for the evolving infectious load to guide decision-making.​

​

...​

​

One can only hope that, much like in 1918, life will continue. Conversely, with lockdowns of months, if not years, life largely stops, short-term and long-term consequences are entirely unknown, and billions, not just millions, of lives may be eventually at stake.​

​

A fiasco in the making? As the coronavirus pandemic takes hold, we are making decisions without reliable data

A fiasco in the making? As the #coronavirus pandemic takes hold, we are making decisions without reliable data.

www.statnews.com

​

Lockdown advocates would like us to believe that there was no way to know the collateral damage that would result from these measures. But scientists were sounding the alarm right out of the gate, and no one was listening. Worse than that, those sounding the alarm were being actively silenced.

Lockdown advocates don't get to claim ignorance now because they were too foolish to listen to those very real warnings.