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Overshoot: Why It’s Already Too Late To Save Civilization

SamanthaAnastasia

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Oh yes. When I lived in Germany, even the larger cities had only one (if that) art supply store. Even big cities only had just a few. But I would say 90% of *general* things that everyone *generally* uses would be a better statement. Of course if it’s some niche hobby (not like art supplies or rugby is niche I’m talking bout like erm say Ventriloquism) then maybe only NYC or LA bc it’s just *that massive* but even then it’s not going to be in 15 min radius of everybody…
If that makes sense.
 
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SamanthaAnastasia

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That’s what public transit is for. I’ve seen plenty of ppl in Europe doing their grocery shopping and they’re just fine.

However, Europeans (and city folks around the world) tend to do smaller shopping trips (multiple times a week vs 3x a month). I *hate* grocery shopping like that. Give me 3 big shopping trips and if I need to go to the store for milk, butter, eggs, or fresh salat that’s much better lol
 
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Yttrium

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I remember reading the Population Bomb in high school. And there was a good science fiction movie along those lines called Soylent Green, starring Charlton Heston. Things turned out differently. The warnings were important to consider, but the writers were overlooking certain trends.. The population can and does level off if the local population is well off. And the well-off populations will be better at handling disasters. We could still be overlooking trends that will counter the problems that we face.

In recent years, I've gained more confidence that if things start getting really bad, our society will... be too stupid in general to do anything about it. But I'm getting old, so I'll likely miss out on the worst of it. Good luck, kids.
 
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Ana the Ist

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Why can't we just use nuclear power, solar, and wind power forever?

Even nuclear fuel runs out...basically none of those things last forever. Solar panels need replaced in 15-20 years...a ton of pollution goes into creating them, and they turn into a toxic mix of pollutants that we have no plans for storing so they don't destroy ground water. Wind power and desalination don't create enough energy or water for all of us.



...Why stop what we're doing when we can just massively reduce the use of fossil fuels and carry on without them?

We actually can't. We still need large scale batteries to store all the power even if solar and wind weren't ineffective.

We don't currently have any fuel other than nuclear which compares to oil.



These drastic changes are not only unnecessary, but they pit climate change activists against the deniers, disrupting the process of advancement.

Nobody is pitted against anyone. It doesn't matter which side you're on....nobody has solutions.
 
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Ana the Ist

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It's just a city planned out for less driving I think....but realistically, everyone would still have a car.
 
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Ana the Ist

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China's on the cusp of a really bad population bomb. Japan is in one. We're rocketing towards an Idiocracy type scenario.
 
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Ana the Ist

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You're not thinking....


As temperatures increase....equatorial regions will simply be impossible to survive in. Those people will crowd into regions in the northern and southern hemisphere. Those supply shortages? Those will be extremely severe and unmanageable. When people live in Guatemala for example....use a fraction of energy per person compared to the average US citizen. When they move to the US? They gradually use more and more energy. After all, they didn't come here to live like Guatemalans.
 
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Nithavela

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In germany, we have those:




Also, crime isn't as rampant as it appears to be in many US cities.
 
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FireDragon76

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In germany, we have those:




Also, crime isn't as rampant as it appears to be in many US cities.

I was standing in a working-class Wal-Mart yesterday and we more or less had the same things (except the bike trailer, but they did have a storage rack).
 
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Nithavela

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I was standing in a working-class Wal-Mart yesterday and we more or less had the same things (except the bike trailer, but they did have a storage rack).
Well, you have to bring your own, but you can get a good one for under 100 Euro.
 
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keith99

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I was standing in a working-class Wal-Mart yesterday and we more or less had the same things (except the bike trailer, but they did have a storage rack).
Walmart is the biggest problem store. Not just no bike racks, almost nothing to lock a bike to and a 'greeter' on the way in to make sure that you do not take your bike in.
 
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Ana the Ist

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How long have you been vegan now?
 
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variant

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If you're referring to things like modern farming techniques...they aren't sustainable and also rely upon finite resources.

No, we will have to vastly improve modern farming techniques, probably by an order of magnitude.

According to the article we use about twice as much as the earth can sustain now, so going forward we are going to have to find ways to get by on half as much with more people.

So, we will need more intensive farming based upon regenerative practices that are not finite. We would need to do things like recapture all the nutrients that get lost through consumption and disposal, terraform large swaths of the earth and develop ways to make more fresh water for instance.

The Amish are not sustainable they require a lot of good farm land to subsist.

We would need to be using farming techniques that use less energy than modern farming and less fertilizer and recapturing what they use.

No, we're using about double what the planet can put out now, again according to the article, which means we need to harness a lot more of what the earth gives us energetically for free. We do have hundreds of years of fissile material though if you were unaware to bridge the gap.

Also, populations will stop expanding exponentially eventually, it's just that we've not run out of food yet.
 
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variant

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Well farming for one. Desalination is not and has never been used at scale to make fresh water. The amount you need to farm in the way we farm now is staggering. Petrochemicals make a large amount of our fertilizers. So, fresh water, farming practices and fertilizer all need to be addressed if you want the population to get much larger than it is.

Sadly we're not at the point where we are desperate enough to do some of the "big think" that is required to engineer such a transition.
 
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variant

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Cows taste good though.

At the caloric level Beef is something on the order of 6 times less efficient than the crops you feed the cow, which ignores all the extra infrastructure.

If the question is "oh no we don't have enough food" then cheap meat is going to be the first thing to go.
 
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Ana the Ist

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If I were to tell you that this is a rather tall order to accomplish in the time we have...you wouldn't share my pessimism that it won't happen?


The Amish are not sustainable they require a lot of good farm land to subsist.

Until around 150 years ago....90%+ of humanity required a lot of good farm land to subsist. The thing that changed that is the same thing heating the planet.


It's funny to see you say something like...

"Populations will stop expanding exponentially eventually, it's just that we've not run out of food yet"

And you don't seem to think that situation will look like war or violence on a mass scale.
 
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variant

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If I were to tell you that this is a rather tall order to accomplish in the time we have...you wouldn't share my pessimism that it won't happen?

I understand the pessimism.

I also think the main problem is the trying to get people to act and the actual solving of problems to be the easier part.

So the upside of presenting the problem as hopeless seems limited.

Until around 150 years ago....90%+ of humanity required a lot of good farm land to subsist. The thing that changed that is the same thing heating the planet.

There are many more people than could ever subsist on just the pleasant natural farmland alone already.

So, our basis for surviving and thriving is going to require that we make much better use of it than they did.

It's funny to see you say something like...

"Populations will stop expanding exponentially eventually, it's just that we've not run out of food yet"

And you don't seem to think that situation will look like war or violence on a mass scale.

Is that what has slowed china's population growth? Starvation and war? Is it what has slowed ours? Europe?

Much of the developed world is already going into population demographic crisis so the exponential expansion is a bit questionable.

In places like Egypt where their population is expanding exponentially they are spending billions to irrigate more farmland. You'll see more and more mega projects in the coming years.

They'll be needed.

If humanity decides to eat itself instead via warfare over the dying embers of the earth then we'll deserve our fate. War is waste, we have better things we could be focusing on and only so many resources to get the job done.
 
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Landon Caeli

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I don't think we have to worry about running out of the intelligence required for further advancements. Over the last 200 years, the world has progressed drastically, and I don't see any indication that this innovative quality that we seem to posess, will take on any kind of slowing down period.

We'll find new ways for survival as they're needed. And everything will be fine. But we do need to start weaning ourselves off fossil fuels.
 
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