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Overshoot: Why It’s Already Too Late To Save Civilization

SamanthaAnastasia

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That depends a lot on if the claim is covering 90% of things or everything. If one has interests that are at all different a 15 minute city would suck. And since I like both Rugby and Theater (the kind with real people on a stage) I doubt I'd find a 15 minute city I would like this side of the Tasman Sea. As things stand I have a Rugby pitch within a half hour drive, Theater a bit farther and I do not have to choose between real Mexican food and very good Indian food. And looking at the pictures of 15 minute cities it looks like it is all multi story apartments. I like having a garden and not having an upstairs or downstairs neighbor.
Oh yes. When I lived in Germany, even the larger cities had only one (if that) art supply store. Even big cities only had just a few. But I would say 90% of *general* things that everyone *generally* uses would be a better statement. Of course if it’s some niche hobby (not like art supplies or rugby is niche I’m talking bout like erm say Ventriloquism) then maybe only NYC or LA bc it’s just *that massive* but even then it’s not going to be in 15 min radius of everybody…
If that makes sense.
 
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SamanthaAnastasia

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I've got that now. But it has major problems. What is an easy 15 minute bike ride becomes not so easy when you are carrying 25 pounds of groceries. Even worse if you are trying to get a quart of ice cream home when it is 90 by 8 in the morning.

Do those walkable cities have bike racks that are placed near high foot traffic areas to make theft difficult? Very serious question as I was recently without a car for a while and while some stores were fin with a bike inside others were not and getting a bike stolen when it is your means of transport is a huge deal.

Oh, and forget about getting a frozen pizza home.
That’s what public transit is for. I’ve seen plenty of ppl in Europe doing their grocery shopping and they’re just fine.

However, Europeans (and city folks around the world) tend to do smaller shopping trips (multiple times a week vs 3x a month). I *hate* grocery shopping like that. Give me 3 big shopping trips and if I need to go to the store for milk, butter, eggs, or fresh salat that’s much better lol
 
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Yttrium

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I remember reading the Population Bomb in high school. And there was a good science fiction movie along those lines called Soylent Green, starring Charlton Heston. Things turned out differently. The warnings were important to consider, but the writers were overlooking certain trends.. The population can and does level off if the local population is well off. And the well-off populations will be better at handling disasters. We could still be overlooking trends that will counter the problems that we face.

In recent years, I've gained more confidence that if things start getting really bad, our society will... be too stupid in general to do anything about it. But I'm getting old, so I'll likely miss out on the worst of it. Good luck, kids.
 
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Ana the Ist

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Why can't we just use nuclear power, solar, and wind power forever?

Even nuclear fuel runs out...basically none of those things last forever. Solar panels need replaced in 15-20 years...a ton of pollution goes into creating them, and they turn into a toxic mix of pollutants that we have no plans for storing so they don't destroy ground water. Wind power and desalination don't create enough energy or water for all of us.



...Why stop what we're doing when we can just massively reduce the use of fossil fuels and carry on without them?

We actually can't. We still need large scale batteries to store all the power even if solar and wind weren't ineffective.

We don't currently have any fuel other than nuclear which compares to oil.



These drastic changes are not only unnecessary, but they pit climate change activists against the deniers, disrupting the process of advancement.

Nobody is pitted against anyone. It doesn't matter which side you're on....nobody has solutions.
 
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Ana the Ist

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That depends a lot on if the claim is covering 90% of things or everything. If one has interests that are at all different a 15 minute city would suck. And since I like both Rugby and Theater (the kind with real people on a stage) I doubt I'd find a 15 minute city I would like this side of the Tasman Sea. As things stand I have a Rugby pitch within a half hour drive, Theater a bit farther and I do not have to choose between real Mexican food and very good Indian food. And looking at the pictures of 15 minute cities it looks like it is all multi story apartments. I like having a garden and not having an upstairs or downstairs neighbor.

It's just a city planned out for less driving I think....but realistically, everyone would still have a car.
 
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Ana the Ist

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I remember reading the Population Bomb in high school. And there was a good science fiction movie along those lines called Soylent Green, starring Charlton Heston. Things turned out differently. The warnings were important to consider, but the writers were overlooking certain trends.. The population can and does level off if the local population is well off. And the well-off populations will be better at handling disasters. We could still be overlooking trends that will counter the problems that we face.

In recent years, I've gained more confidence that if things start getting really bad, our society will... be too stupid in general to do anything about it. But I'm getting old, so I'll likely miss out on the worst of it. Good luck, kids.

China's on the cusp of a really bad population bomb. Japan is in one. We're rocketing towards an Idiocracy type scenario.
 
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Ana the Ist

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Well, it does seem to have some valid arguments in regards to us using up resources faster than they replenish. What I find far more questionable is its claims of an actual collapse of civilization and mass death as a result.

Let's return to one of the most basic bits of economic knowledge: As supply shrinks, prices go up. As prices go up, people buy less of the product. So it seems to me that when we start hitting a point where we're actually really overdoing it with things (such as, say, fishing, which it argues is becoming unsustainable, as well as oil given that there's only a finite amount of the stuff), prices go up, people buy less, and that fixes the problem. It does mean people would have to accept a somewhat lower standard of living, but I'm not seeing societal collapse and mass death as a result. When we start running out of oil, oil prices go up, and people do things to use less oil.

The big analogy it brings up is a small island where, absent predators, the deer got overpopulated, overate the food, but rather than the population becoming stable or dropping, it caused them to die in droves. But deer don't have the market to constrain them; when there's food, they just eat it. There being an actual market and money constrains that in human society. So if something starts to become scarce, the price goes up, people buy less, and they try for other things that are cheaper and more plentiful. Food that is more sustainable will become more popular because its prices won't go up.

This is an important point, and the article never addresses it. It seems to assume we'll just wake up one day and find we're almost out of food and resources and then chaos reigns, when the market itself would prepare us for that simply via the laws of supply and demand.

Now, don't get me wrong, shortages would cause problems. People would have to cut back on various things they might like due to lower supply. But that's an inconvenience (even if a big one), not a collapse of civilization.

You're not thinking....


As temperatures increase....equatorial regions will simply be impossible to survive in. Those people will crowd into regions in the northern and southern hemisphere. Those supply shortages? Those will be extremely severe and unmanageable. When people live in Guatemala for example....use a fraction of energy per person compared to the average US citizen. When they move to the US? They gradually use more and more energy. After all, they didn't come here to live like Guatemalans.
 
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Nithavela

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I've got that now. But it has major problems. What is an easy 15 minute bike ride becomes not so easy when you are carrying 25 pounds of groceries. Even worse if you are trying to get a quart of ice cream home when it is 90 by 8 in the morning.

Do those walkable cities have bike racks that are placed near high foot traffic areas to make theft difficult? Very serious question as I was recently without a car for a while and while some stores were fin with a bike inside others were not and getting a bike stolen when it is your means of transport is a huge deal.

Oh, and forget about getting a frozen pizza home.

EDIT:

And that 15 minute trip by bike gets me to Ralphs, Trader Joes, Sprouts and Aldi. I have a choice, where in a 15 minute city I probably would not. There is also a World Marketplace which has some spices and canned items. But if I want spices I have a 10-20 minute trip by car (not all that many miles, but signals suck).
In germany, we have those:

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71aAOUOKBGL._AC_UF1000,1000_QL80_.jpg

s-l1600.jpg

Also, crime isn't as rampant as it appears to be in many US cities.
 
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FireDragon76

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In germany, we have those:

2256cd6669e808af4ea4111b7bc12dd7.jpg

71aAOUOKBGL._AC_UF1000,1000_QL80_.jpg

s-l1600.jpg

Also, crime isn't as rampant as it appears to be in many US cities.

I was standing in a working-class Wal-Mart yesterday and we more or less had the same things (except the bike trailer, but they did have a storage rack).
 
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Nithavela

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I was standing in a working-class Wal-Mart yesterday and we more or less had the same things (except the bike trailer, but they did have a storage rack).
Well, you have to bring your own, but you can get a good one for under 100 Euro.
 
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keith99

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I was standing in a working-class Wal-Mart yesterday and we more or less had the same things (except the bike trailer, but they did have a storage rack).
Walmart is the biggest problem store. Not just no bike racks, almost nothing to lock a bike to and a 'greeter' on the way in to make sure that you do not take your bike in.
 
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Ana the Ist

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And yet some of these types probably think nothing of eating shrimp, which is basically the same thing, a big sea-bug.

At any rate, I eat a vegan diet, but that's even more hated by the far right, than the suggestion that eating bugs might be better for the environment.

I don't get it. They are overly emotionally attached to food. As Jesus said, the body is more than food. The emotional attachment to food is how people with power manipulate you and get you to do stupid things, self-sabotaging, anyways.

As one of my favorite chefs says "love the food that loves you back". The same is true with every other thing in our lives. Some habits are genuinely bad for us and the planet. A little bit of introspection and maybe people would see that they are like "friends" that come and sleep on the sofa and eat everything in the refrigerator when you are at work, and never clean up after themselves. With friends like that, the human race doesn't need enemies.

How long have you been vegan now?
 
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variant

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If you're referring to things like modern farming techniques...they aren't sustainable and also rely upon finite resources.

No, we will have to vastly improve modern farming techniques, probably by an order of magnitude.

According to the article we use about twice as much as the earth can sustain now, so going forward we are going to have to find ways to get by on half as much with more people.

So, we will need more intensive farming based upon regenerative practices that are not finite. We would need to do things like recapture all the nutrients that get lost through consumption and disposal, terraform large swaths of the earth and develop ways to make more fresh water for instance.
What's sustainable? The Amish?

When you say "sustainable" do you mean a lifestyle closer to the Amish that we could possibly maintain for centuries? Or a more 1st world lifestyle like you have now that will require either....

1. A completely new and potentially near limitless energy source like nuclear fusion becoming far more advanced and accessible than it is likely to be in 100 years.

2. A lot less people on the planet.

The Amish are not sustainable they require a lot of good farm land to subsist.

We would need to be using farming techniques that use less energy than modern farming and less fertilizer and recapturing what they use.

No, we're using about double what the planet can put out now, again according to the article, which means we need to harness a lot more of what the earth gives us energetically for free. We do have hundreds of years of fissile material though if you were unaware to bridge the gap.

Also, populations will stop expanding exponentially eventually, it's just that we've not run out of food yet.
 
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Why can't we just use nuclear power, solar, and wind power forever? We can have desalination plants, so we'll not run out of water for crop irrigation? We can still have electric cars...

...Why stop what we're doing when we can just massively reduce the use of fossil fuels and carry on without them? These drastic changes are not only unnecessary, but they pit climate change activists against the deniers, disrupting the process of advancement.

Well farming for one. Desalination is not and has never been used at scale to make fresh water. The amount you need to farm in the way we farm now is staggering. Petrochemicals make a large amount of our fertilizers. So, fresh water, farming practices and fertilizer all need to be addressed if you want the population to get much larger than it is.

Sadly we're not at the point where we are desperate enough to do some of the "big think" that is required to engineer such a transition.
 
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Cows taste good though.

At the caloric level Beef is something on the order of 6 times less efficient than the crops you feed the cow, which ignores all the extra infrastructure.

If the question is "oh no we don't have enough food" then cheap meat is going to be the first thing to go.
 
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Ana the Ist

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No, we will have to vastly improve modern farming techniques, probably by an order of magnitude.

According to the article we use about twice as much as the earth can sustain now, so going forward we are going to have to find ways to get by on half as much with more people.

So, we will need more intensive farming based upon regenerative practices that are not finite. We would need to do things like recapture all the nutrients that get lost through consumption and disposal, terraform large swaths of the earth and develop ways to make more fresh water for instance.

If I were to tell you that this is a rather tall order to accomplish in the time we have...you wouldn't share my pessimism that it won't happen?


The Amish are not sustainable they require a lot of good farm land to subsist.

Until around 150 years ago....90%+ of humanity required a lot of good farm land to subsist. The thing that changed that is the same thing heating the planet.

We would need to be using farming techniques that use less energy than modern farming and less fertilizer and recapturing what they use.

No, we're using about double what the planet can put out now, again according to the article, which means we need to harness a lot more of what the earth gives us energetically for free. We do have hundreds of years of fissile material though if you were unaware to bridge the gap.

Also, populations will stop expanding exponentially eventually, it's just that we've not run out of food yet.

It's funny to see you say something like...

"Populations will stop expanding exponentially eventually, it's just that we've not run out of food yet"

And you don't seem to think that situation will look like war or violence on a mass scale.
 
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If I were to tell you that this is a rather tall order to accomplish in the time we have...you wouldn't share my pessimism that it won't happen?

I understand the pessimism.

I also think the main problem is the trying to get people to act and the actual solving of problems to be the easier part.

So the upside of presenting the problem as hopeless seems limited.

Until around 150 years ago....90%+ of humanity required a lot of good farm land to subsist. The thing that changed that is the same thing heating the planet.

There are many more people than could ever subsist on just the pleasant natural farmland alone already.

So, our basis for surviving and thriving is going to require that we make much better use of it than they did.

It's funny to see you say something like...

"Populations will stop expanding exponentially eventually, it's just that we've not run out of food yet"

And you don't seem to think that situation will look like war or violence on a mass scale.

Is that what has slowed china's population growth? Starvation and war? Is it what has slowed ours? Europe?

Much of the developed world is already going into population demographic crisis so the exponential expansion is a bit questionable.

In places like Egypt where their population is expanding exponentially they are spending billions to irrigate more farmland. You'll see more and more mega projects in the coming years.

They'll be needed.

If humanity decides to eat itself instead via warfare over the dying embers of the earth then we'll deserve our fate. War is waste, we have better things we could be focusing on and only so many resources to get the job done.
 
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Landon Caeli

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I don't think we have to worry about running out of the intelligence required for further advancements. Over the last 200 years, the world has progressed drastically, and I don't see any indication that this innovative quality that we seem to posess, will take on any kind of slowing down period.

We'll find new ways for survival as they're needed. And everything will be fine. But we do need to start weaning ourselves off fossil fuels.
 
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