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Hey! Ya! No kidding!?
Give that man a cig... er ... give that man a clipboard or something!
And your calculations are based on what sequences, buddy? Modern ones that you are using in your model. You are missing my point, in any case, which is that there is no one sequence that must be created (by whatever mechanism) that functions.
Do you know the difference between "natural selection" and "abiogenesis"?
Did I say "improbable"?
Do you know the difference between "improbable" and "impossible"?
Did ... you ... read ... the ... OP ... carefully?So, why are you claiming what is improbable is impossible?
Oh, man -- this gets better by the minute.
Talking with scientists always makes me have to repeat myself n[sup]n[/sup] times.
Did ... you ... read ... the ... OP ... carefully?
They is mo calmbinashins in 256 proteens then they is secinds in the unyverse.
(Sorry, but this gets old.)
So long as I have a deck to shuffle, no combination of cards that can result from a valid deck is impossible.
And the more decks and people shuffling, the more chance of getting any single combination.
and I would compare getting a functional protein more to the probability of getting a Royal Flush in one's hand than for a whole deck to be shuffled, because proteins come in smaller pieces that can REARRANGE, so it would be a lot like shuffling a deck until the first cards I pulled off the deck contributed to that hand, and holding onto them until I got another card that contributed to that hand, and kept going until I held a Royal Flush.
In the meantime, you would have exhausted 13.8 billion years of time.
The problems with Abiogenesis goes beyond the statistical probability of it. Abiogenesis is not so much a theory, but the scientific study of the beginning of life.
Try it. it isn't impossible to do, you shuffle a deck, you pick a card. If the card couldn't go in a Royal Flush, put it back and shuffle again until you draw a card that does go in that hand. put it off to the side until you have a Royal flush by repeating the same process.
We're not dealing with Royal Flushes, Sarah.
We're dealing now with a deck of 256 different cards.
(I shoulda known using a deck of cards would confuse you guys. Another good thread ruined by the mentally-blocked.)
We're not dealing with Royal Flushes, Sarah.
We're dealing now with a deck of 256 different cards.
(I shoulda known using a deck of cards would confuse you guys. Another good thread ruined by the mentally-blocked.)
The odds are still the same because everything has been proportionally increased. In fact, they may even be better because I would have 256 different chances to get a royal flush instead of just one. Statistics also aren't legal tender, and are actually fairly malleable. I've been one card away from a royal flush twice in my life, but I probably haven't played enough hands of poker to meet those odds. Another example, the average IQ is 100. If I went out and measured the IQ of everyone in Denver, I feel confident in saying that I'd find that to be true. On the other hand, if I only went to our universities and measured the IQ of PhDs and PhD students, I'd be very hard pressed to find someone with an IQ of 100.
I don't understand what you're saying.
I made the list up on paper before I turned the cards over.
It's like rolling a die.
What are the odds that it is going to come up a "5"?
1 in 6
Imagine a die with 8x10^67 sides.
Whenever you roll it, it has 8x10^67 ways of landing.
It will land one of those ways.
The odds of that happening (whatever the outcome) are 1 in 8x10^67.
Every time you shuffle cards, you make something equally unlikely happen: 1 in 8x10^67 .
Therefore, it's obvious that things that unlikely are not necessarily improbable. You can make them happen at will.
What are the odds that it is going to come up a "1"?
1 in 6
What are the odds that it is going to come up a "2"?
1 in 6
What are the odds that it is going to come up a "3"?
1 in 6
What are the odds that it is going to come up a "4"?
1 in 6
What are the odds that it is going to come up a "5"?
1 in 6
What are the odds that it is going to come up a "6"?
1 in 6
Your prediction has no effect on the odds of any face of the die coming up.
The chances are 1 in 6.
The odds are 1 to 5.
You don't want to be accused of being an Arab bookie do you?
Imagine a die with 8x10^67 sides.
Whenever you roll it, it has 8x10^67 ways of landing.
It will land one of those ways.
The odds of that happening (whatever the outcome) are 1 in 8x10^67.
Every time you shuffle cards, you make something equally unlikely happen: 1 in 8x10^67 .
Therefore, it's obvious that things that unlikely are not necessarily improbable. You can make them happen at will.
What are the odds that it is going to come up a "1"?
1 in 6
What are the odds that it is going to come up a "2"?
1 in 6
What are the odds that it is going to come up a "3"?
1 in 6
What are the odds that it is going to come up a "4"?
1 in 6
What are the odds that it is going to come up a "5"?
1 in 6
What are the odds that it is going to come up a "6"?
1 in 6
Your prediction has no effect on the odds of any face of the die coming up.
Now explain that, for the simplest of life to have occurred, 256 proteins would have had to have come together in the correct order, or abiogenesis is a bust.
Yes, and it gets even worse than that. While a minimal-function cell . . .
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