New Swing State Polls Spell More Bad News For Biden Ahead Of 2024

[HARK!]

President Joe Biden trails former President Donald Trump in multiple key swing states for a hypothetical 2024 matchup, according to a Thursday poll.

Across the battleground states of Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, Trump is leading Biden 47% to 43%, according to a Bloomberg News/Morning Consult survey. A majority of the battleground state voters also said the economy was better off under the Trump administration than it is under Biden, with 49% trusting the former on the issue rather than the latter at 35%.

New Swing State Polls Spell More Bad News For Biden Ahead Of 2024

President Joe Biden trails former President Donald Trump across several key battleground states for a hypothetical 2024 matchup by 4 points.

dailycaller.com

 

[dogs4thewin]

President Joe Biden trails former President Donald Trump in multiple key swing states for a hypothetical 2024 matchup, according to a Thursday poll.

Across the battleground states of Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, Trump is leading Biden 47% to 43%, according to a Bloomberg News/Morning Consult survey. A majority of the battleground state voters also said the economy was better off under the Trump administration than it is under Biden, with 49% trusting the former on the issue rather than the latter at 35%.

New Swing State Polls Spell More Bad News For Biden Ahead Of 2024

President Joe Biden trails former President Donald Trump across several key battleground states for a hypothetical 2024 matchup by 4 points.

dailycaller.com

While there is still time . I think that there are a number of reasons Biden is struggling some within his control some not and it is not like the democrats have the number of choices we do either meaning it will be interesting how many are willing to vote in the primaries in particular in states like GA that allow open primaries.

 

[SimplyMe]

It is worth noting that the state polls in many of those swing states, the margin of error was 4% -- so all the poll really "claims" is that Biden and Trump is even. It would be worth more if we saw what the polling is in each state, rather than some type of average. For example, North Carolina has been a strong Trump state and, my guess, is that it is included because it is possibly as high as 10% Trump but they use it to make it appear to be not as close in actual swing states. That bias would also be why they ignore the results are within the margin of error -- they are trying to create a narrative, not actually report the results.

It took me a while to find the actual results, based on state, but doing that shows, "Taking the margins of error into account, Trump has small leads in Arizona, Georgia, and North Carolina, and the candidates are statistically tied in Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin."

 

[HARK!]

It is worth noting that the state polls in many of those swing states, the margin of error was 4% -- so all the poll really "claims" is that Biden and Trump is even.

Using that logic we could say that all the poll really claims is that Trump leads Biden 51% - 39%.

 

[HARK!]

Trump Widens Lead Over Biden, Wins In Third-Party Matchups: POLL​

Trump is beating Biden 46% to 41%, with 14% being undecided, which is up from 44% to 40% in September, according to a Harvard CAPS/Harris survey. In a three-way race with Kennedy garnering 19% of the share, Trump held 39% support compared to Biden’s 33%, with 9% remaining undecided

Trump Widens Lead Over Biden, Wins In Third-Party Matchups: POLL

Former President Donald Trump widened his lead over President Joe Biden in a head-to-head matchup and is winning in a three-way race with newly-independent RFK Jr.

dailycaller.com

 

[SimplyMe]

Using that logic we could say that all the poll really claims is that Trump leads Biden 51% - 39%.

Sorry, no, it doesn't work like that; while you could claim (if the margin nationwide was 4%) that it is not what it "really claims" nor is it the only possible claim. From what I read of the results, the nationwide margin of error is only 1% but that when you break it down to the individual states, the margin of error rises to 3 or 4%, depending on the state. So the actual results of the nationwide poll could be 47%-42%, though it could equally be 45%-44%.

Regardless, either way, my experience is that this type of polling is meaningless a year prior to the election -- the polls are likely to fluctuate wildly over the next 9 months. I think that is doubly true over this next year, as we have Trump in court for much of the next year, as well as the various hearings into the Bidens.

 

[HARK!]

Sorry, no, it doesn't work like that; while you could claim (if the margin nationwide was 4%) that it is not what it "really claims" nor is it the only possible claim. From what I read of the results, the nationwide margin of error is only 1% but that when you break it down to the individual states, the margin of error rises to 3 or 4%, depending on the state. So the actual results of the nationwide poll could be 47%-42%, though it could equally be 45%-44%.

Regardless, either way, my experience is that this type of polling is meaningless a year prior to the election -- the polls are likely to fluctuate wildly over the next 9 months. I think that is doubly true over this next year, as we have Trump in court for much of the next year, as well as the various hearings into the Bidens.

We'll have to watch and see what happens as Biden continues to trend down.

 

[FenderTL5]

Using that logic we could say that all the poll really claims is that Trump leads Biden 51% - 39%.

Only Trump supporters/apologists would stoop to that level though.

 

[HARK!]

Only Trump supporters/apologists would stoop to that level though.

Source?

 

[expos4ever]

Sam Harris once said something like this: "If I had to choose between Donald Trump and a randomly selected American adult, I would choose the random American adult to be President, and you realize how awful a randomly selected American adult might be".

The fact that Donald Trump is even under consideration to be President reveals there is something profoundly wrong in American culture.

 

[Vambram]

I do not know who Sam Harris is, and his opinions don't matter at all to myself and probably also not to a very significant percentage of people in America.

 

[expos4ever]

I do not know who Sam Harris is...

This might be part of the problem. While I realize it may not be possible for the average person to follow all the leading thinkers of our day, I am indeed concerned that a strain of anti-intellectualism on the American right stifles the otherwise productive exchange of ideas.

To be even handed there are many on the left who appear not to be committed to the kind nuanced thinking about such issues that I believe people like Harris demonstrate.

 

[Vambram]

The so-called experts and intellectual establishment who believes that their ways are superior to the rest of us, including people like myself with college degrees ( B. S. in Business Administration majoring in management here ), are not any better at the issues that matter to every day Americans.

 

[expos4ever]

The so-called experts and intellectual establishment who believes that their ways are superior to the rest of us, including people like myself with college degrees ( B. S. in Business Administration majoring in management here ), are not any better at the issues that matter to every day Americans.

In that case, I guess my lowly bachelor's degree in engineering puts me on the same level with Mr Harris.

Okay, then I will offer my opinion that, indeed, we would probably be better off with a randomly selected American adult as president than with Mr Trump.

And judging from what I see in the Walmart, that is really saying something.

 

[ThatRobGuy]

It's not just random swing state polls and conservative pundits saying it's bad news for Biden.

Prominent Democratic strategists and pundits are suggesting the same thing.

CNN analyst: Biden in trouble, not Democrats

CNN political director David Chalian said Tuesday that although Democrats had a good election night, President Biden could be in trouble heading into the 2024 election. “Tonight is undoubtedly a g…

thehill.com

David Axelrod (the political architect and chief strategist for Obama) said
Axelrod’s comments came shortly after he issued a viral tweet on a New York Times/Siena College poll that showed Biden down by four to 10 points in key battleground states. In it, the longtime Obama hand said, “Only @JoeBiden can make this decision. If he continues to run, he will be the nominee of the Democratic Party. What he needs to decide is whether that is wise; whether it’s in HIS best interest or the country’s?”

James Carville put it in more blunt (and blue) language that I can't even completely quote here (he is the ragin' cajun afterall)
"Democrats need to wake the ...heck... (he didn't say heck) up about the risk of runnin' Biden in 2024"


These were top political strategists for Bill Clinton and Barack Obama, two successful Democratic presidents who handily won their re-election campaigns. (not to mention the several Democratic governors and Senators they've helped lead to victory over the past 3 decades)

I get why establishment democrats don't want to listen to right-wing punditry on the issue...if they bailed on every candidate who Fox News and the rest of conservasphere said was a trainwreck, they'd be bailing on all of their candidates. ...I get it.

But when guys like Axelrod and Carville are saying it, people should take note. Not that they're infallible in their intuition either, nobody is...but they're two Democratic operatives who've been around "the game" long enough to know what plays and what doesn't and have the credentials to back it up.

And it should be noted that Axelrod and Carville's statements were before Biden burned a few additional bridges on his own side by unequivocally supporting Israel in the conflict (which will undoubtedly hurt him with progressive millennials). ...and that's one of his key demographics he needs to keep solidly engaged on his side.

My own personal feelings about the Israel/Palestine conflicts aside, just in terms of purely political strategy, an 80 year old white dude who backs Israel is the "millennial-kryptonite" equivalent to if a Republican president running for re-election announced that he was marrying a man and wanted Atheism classes to be taught in schools.