More Good News about Omicron

[Peter J Barban]

One must also remember that even with mild symptoms that feel like a common cold, or even no real symptoms at all, long covid can still follow.

Long-term effects of coronavirus (long COVID)

Also, people are dying because of Omicron. Not from omicron, but from other diseases that aren't treated quickly enough because the hospitals are clogged.

NHS hospitals declare critical incidents as heart attack patients told to make own way to A&E

Yes, let me state the obvious, Omicron makes you sick and may lead to your death. Now let me state something less obvious, evidence shows that Omicron is less dangerous than Delta and it will probably drive Delta into extinction.

Classically, we call this a dark cloud with a silver lining. Supposedly, every dark cloud has one, and people are better off if they can see it.

 

[Peter J Barban]

Ummm no we do.

The problem is that there is no connection between what I actually said and what you say I am suggesting. It's all in your head. Don't attribute your imagination to my reality.

 

[Subduction Zone]

Yes, let me state the obvious, Omicron makes you sick and may lead to your death. Now let me state something less obvious, evidence shows that Omicron is less dangerous than Delta and it will probably drive Delta into extinction.

Classically, we call this a dark cloud with a silver lining. Supposedly, every dark cloud has one, and people are better off if they can see it.

We do not yet know if Omicron will give immunity from Delta. I have my doubts since having had the corona virus does not make one immune fron Omicron.

 

[Peter J Barban]

I posted the data for Delta protection a few days ago. Here is are the highlights:
Research Paper link: https://www.ahri.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/12/MEDRXIV-2021-268439v1-Sigal_corr.pdf

Key Points:
After you get Omicron, the body naturally (vaxxed or not) produces a 14 fold resistance to reinfection. You are immune to Omicron reinfection.

Omicron recovery also grants 4.4 fold resistance to Delta variant infection - essentially you are immune to Delta, too.

Because Omicron is spreading so rapidly and widely, soon Delta will die out just as the Beta variant has.

Also, recovering from Delta does not protect you from Omicron.

 

[Subduction Zone]

I posted the data for Delta protection a few days ago. Here is are the highlights:
Research Paper link: https://www.ahri.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/12/MEDRXIV-2021-268439v1-Sigal_corr.pdf

Key Points:
After you get Omicron, the body naturally (vaxxed or not) produces a 14 fold resistance to reinfection. You are immune to Omicron reinfection.

Omicron recovery also grants 4.4 fold resistance to Delta variant infection - essentially you are immune to Delta, too.

Because Omicron is spreading so rapidly and widely, soon Delta will die out just as the Beta variant has.

Also, recovering from Delta does not protect you from Omicron.

That appears to only confirm a short term immunity. Right after being fully vaccinated, or shortly after the booster one has those same levels of antibodies. They do not last. We will have to wait longer to see if it gives long term immunity.

 

[Peter J Barban]

That appears to only confirm a short term immunity. Right after being fully vaccinated, or shortly after the booster one has those same levels of antibodies. They do not last. We will have to wait longer to see if it gives long term immunity.

Yes, we will see. However, natural immunity is more robust and lasts longer than covid vaccinations.

With this high protection against Omicron, I expect it to last years (but I'm just a layman). The delta immunity is not as strong, but Delta will go extinct probably before Omicron-based natural immunity fades.

 

[Subduction Zone]

Yes, we will see. However, natural immunity is more robust and lasts longer than covid vaccinations.

With this high protection against Omicron, I expect it to last years (but I'm just a layman). The delta immunity is not as strong, but Delta will go extinct probably before Omicron-based natural immunity fades.

I don't think you understand. If one had just recovered from Alpha the high number of antibodies would probably fend off Omicron as well. Though robust they have already decreased to the point that one can get Omicron now.

 

[Nithavela]

Yes, let me state the obvious, Omicron makes you sick and may lead to your death. Now let me state something less obvious, evidence shows that Omicron is less dangerous than Delta and it will probably drive Delta into extinction.

There is no evidence that Omicron leads to less Long Covid than over variants. There can't be, the variant is too new.

Classically, we call this a dark cloud with a silver lining. Supposedly, every dark cloud has one, and people are better off if they can see it.

Once again, I'm getting the impression that you think pointing out the dark cloud somehow hurts people.

 

[Nithavela]

Yes, we will see. However, natural immunity is more robust and lasts longer than covid vaccinations.

This claim is very doubtful. I have read studies that say vaccinations are better than natural immunity. Just stating this as an "obvious fact" is not okay.

Laboratory-Confirmed COVID-19 Among Adults Hospitalized ...

In this multistate analysis of hospitalizations for COVID-19–like illness among adults aged ≥18 years during January–September 2021 whose previous infection or vaccination occurred 90–179 days earlier, the adjusted odds of laboratory-confirmed COVID-19 were higher among unvaccinated and previously infected patients than among those who were fully vaccinated with 2 doses of an mRNA COVID-19 vaccine without previous documentation of a SARS-CoV-2 infection.

 

[Peter J Barban]

This is relatively new research from South Africa, where Omicron first hit big.

I'm not just posting facts, I'm linking to the research paper that presented these facts.

Look at the data I have provided. Recovery from Omicron produces robust protection not just from getting Omicron again, but also from getting Delta.

This is about Omicron which is very different from past Covid variants. So whatever you heard before may no longer be applicable.

 

[Peter J Barban]

I don't think you understand. If one had just recovered from Alpha the high number of antibodies would probably fend off Omicron as well. Though robust they have already decreased to the point that one can get Omicron now.

Maybe.
The new research shows that Delta antibodies don't protect you from Omicron. That's the issue people are dealing with now.

But Omicron will protect you from Delta.

 

[trunks2k]

I asked my brother in America about the Omicron surge and he pointed out that many hospitals are going to be worse off than usual because they fired their unvaxxed staff.

Well, he's wrong. The staff that were fired/quit from hospitals over vaccination represents in the order of 1% of total staff, most of whom not being actual medical providers (think people like orderlies and janitors).

 

[Peter J Barban]

Well, he's wrong. The staff that were fired/quit from hospitals over vaccination represents in the order of 1% of total staff, most of whom not being actual medical providers (think people like orderlies and janitors).

Wouldn't it be good to have them back during this Omicron surge? The saying goes, "I'll believe it's a crisis when the leaders act like it's a crisis."

Even the triple vaxxed can get and pass on Omicron. So it's either all hands on deck or not that big a crisis.

Are you OK with 10 more patients dying because you don't want unvaxxed working in a hospital during a crisis? I'm not.

 

[Hazelelponi]

Well, he's wrong. The staff that were fired/quit from hospitals over vaccination represents in the order of 1% of total staff, most of whom not being actual medical providers (think people like orderlies and janitors).

Where is that?

Ballad health estimated they will loose 4% of their nursing staff and up to 40% of their non-medical staff ..

Like it or not in a pandemic when there's already nursing shortages losing 4% is major, and nearly half of all other staff can cripple a hospital, janitors, cooks and check-in staff or not...

15 Percent Of Ballad Staff Could Be Effected If Federal Agency COVID-19 Vaccination Plan Is Approved - 99.3 The X

Ballad Health announces details of plans to comply with federal vaccine mandate

 

[KCfromNC]

I asked my brother in America about the Omicron surge and he pointed out that many hospitals are going to be worse off than usual because they fired their unvaxxed staff.

Did he give an idea of the number of front-line ICU workers who were fired because of this? From what I've seen, it is a vanishingly small percentage.

It's a popular right-wing meme, but the numbers don't work out.

 

[KCfromNC]

Wouldn't it be good to have them back during this Omicron surge? The saying goes, "I'll believe it's a crisis when the leaders act like it's a crisis."

Even the triple vaxxed can get and pass on Omicron. So it's either all hands on deck or not that big a crisis.

Hey look, a black and white fallacy. Yes, vaccinated people can get breakthrough cases. But they're less likely to do so than unvaccinated people. Pretending that there's no difference will lead to bad policy choices.

 

[sfs]

Yes, we will see. However, natural immunity is more robust and lasts longer than covid vaccinations.

That's far from clear. This tweet-thread provides an exhaustive run-down of the studies on the subject: https://twitter.com/NAChristakis/status/1473327810534154241

 

[Peter J Barban]

Did he give an idea of the number of front-line ICU workers who were fired because of this? From what I've seen, it is a vanishingly small percentage.

It's a popular right-wing meme, but the numbers don't work out.

I don't think he mentioned it.

 

[sfs]

This is relatively new research from South Africa, where Omicron first hit big.

I'm not just posting facts, I'm linking to the research paper that presented these facts.

Look at the data I have provided. Recovery from Omicron produces robust protection not just from getting Omicron again, but also from getting Delta.

This is about Omicron which is very different from past Covid variants. So whatever you heard before may no longer be applicable.

From the paper you linked to: "However, participants in this study have likely been previously infected, and more than half were vaccinated. Therefore, it is unclear if what we observe is effective cross-neutralization of Delta virus by Omicron elicited antibodies, or activation of antibody immunity from previous infection and/or vaccination." Unfortunately, I don't see how this study shows that infection with Omicron gives better protection against Delta than recent infection with Delta gives against Omicron. Both Delta infection and vaccine boosters give short-term increased protection against Omicron, and the study might simply be seeing the same process in reverse.

ETA: But yes, it is possible that enough people will be infected with Omicron, and will continue to be reinfected in the future, that it will effectively suppress Delta.

 

[Peter J Barban]

From the paper you linked to: "However, participants in this study have likely been previously infected, and more than half were vaccinated. Therefore, it is unclear if what we observe is effective cross-neutralization of Delta virus by Omicron elicited antibodies, or activation of antibody immunity from previous infection and/or vaccination." Unfortunately, I don't see how this study shows that infection with Omicron gives better protection against Delta than recent infection with Delta gives against Omicron. Both Delta infection and vaccine boosters give short-term increased protection against Omicron, and the study might simply be seeing the same process in reverse.

ETA: But yes, it is possible that enough people will be infected with Omicron, and will continue to be reinfected in the future, that it will effectively suppress Delta.

Thank you for looking at the study.