Monkeypox--leveling off

[tall73]

Illustrates the different trajectories of the UK and US.

 

[tall73]

Data as of 7/19

Spain 3125
United Kingdom 2142
United States 2102
Germany 2033
France 908
Netherlands 656
Canada 604
Portugal 515
Italy 374
Brazil 351
Belgium 311
Switzerland 213
Israel 102
Peru 95
Austria 83
Sweden 58
Ireland 54
Norway 44
Denmark 43
Mexico 40
Australia 33
Hungary 30
Poland 28
Slovenia 26
Chile 20
Romania 19
Ghana 18
Argentina 13
Finland 13
Greece 13
United Arab Emirates 13
Czechia 12
Malta 9
Luxembourg 8
Puerto Rico 8
Colombia 7
Croatia 6
Iceland 6
Singapore 6
Estonia 4
Benin 3
Bulgaria 3
South Africa 3
India 2
Latvia 2
New Zealand 2
Taiwan 2
Barbados 1
Bosnia and Herzegovina 1
Dominican Republic 1
Ecuador 1
Georgia 1
Jamaica 1
Lebanon 1
Martinique 1
Morocco 1
Panama 1
Russia 1
Saudi Arabia 1
Serbia 1
Slovakia 1
South Korea 1
Turkey 1
Venezuela 1

Total: 14,179

The UK passed the US again, which I didn't expect. The US broke the 2k barrier, and Spain the 3k barrier.

 

[tall73]

Data as of 7/20:

Spain 3125
United States 2316
United Kingdom 2142
Germany 2110
France 1448
Netherlands 656
Canada 604
Portugal 515
Brazil 449
Italy 374
Belgium 311
Switzerland 216
Peru 112
Israel 102
Austria 83
Ireland 69
Sweden 58
Denmark 46
Norway 46
Australia 41
Mexico 40
Hungary 30
Poland 28
Chile 26
Slovenia 26
Romania 19
Ghana 18
Argentina 13
Finland 13
Greece 13
United Arab Emirates 13
Czechia 12
Malta 9
Luxembourg 8
Puerto Rico 8
Colombia 7
Croatia 6
Iceland 6
Singapore 6
Estonia 4
Benin 3
Bulgaria 3
Dominican Republic 3
South Africa 3
Ecuador 2
India 2
Latvia 2
New Zealand 2
Taiwan 2
Barbados 1
Bosnia and Herzegovina 1
Georgia 1
Jamaica 1
Lebanon 1
Martinique 1
Morocco 1
Panama 1
Russia 1
Saudi Arabia 1
Serbia 1
Slovakia 1
South Korea 1
Turkey 1
Venezuela 1

Total: 15,165

 

[tall73]

Monkeypox in the U.S.

Data as of 7/21

New York 830
California 356
Illinois 230
Florida 226
Georgia 158
District Of Columbia 110
Texas 61
Pennsylvania 58
Massachusetts 55
Washington 53
Maryland 49
New Jersey 41
Virginia 40
Indiana 35
Colorado 31
Arizona 22
Minnesota 19
Michigan 19
Louisiana 17
Tennessee 16
Connecticut 16
North Carolina 13
Puerto Rico 12
Utah 11
South Carolina 9
Oregon 9
Ohio 9
Nevada 8
Missouri 8
Hawaii 8
Rhode Island 7
New Mexico 7
Wisconsin 6
Alabama 6
Oklahoma 5
Nebraska 5
Iowa 5
Kentucky 4
New Hampshire 3
Delaware 3
Arkansas 3
Kansas 2
Idaho 2
West Virginia 1
South Dakota 1
North Dakota 1

Total: 2,590

 

[tall73]

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/07/23/who...eypox-outbreak-a-global-health-emergency.html

The World Health Organization has activated its highest alert level for the growing monkeypox outbreak, declaring the virus a public health emergency of international concern.

The rare designation means the WHO now views the outbreak as a significant enough threat to global health that a coordinated international response is needed to prevent the virus from spreading further and potentially escalating into a pandemic.

 

[Nithavela]

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/07/23/who...eypox-outbreak-a-global-health-emergency.html

The World Health Organization has activated its highest alert level for the growing monkeypox outbreak, declaring the virus a public health emergency of international concern.

The rare designation means the WHO now views the outbreak as a significant enough threat to global health that a coordinated international response is needed to prevent the virus from spreading further and potentially escalating into a pandemic.

And once again, they shut the barn door as all the horses have vacated the building.

 

[tall73]

And once again, they shut the barn door as all the horses have vacated the building.

Yup

 

[trophy33]

98% of cases are in the community of promiscuous homosexuals or bisexuals.
https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2207323

Somebody probably brought it from Africa and it may become another STD in the community.

 

[tall73]

Data as of 7/25

New York 900
California 356
Florida 247
Illinois 238
Georgia 211
District Of Columbia 110
Texas 107
Massachusetts 79
Maryland 71
Washington 60
Pennsylvania 55
Colorado 47
New Jersey 41
Virginia 40
Oregon 36
Indiana 31
Arizona 29
Michigan 27
Louisiana 21
Minnesota 19
Connecticut 19
Tennessee 15
Utah 13
North Carolina 13
Puerto Rico 10
Rhode Island 9
Nevada 8
Hawaii 8
South Carolina 7
New Mexico 7
Wisconsin 6
Iowa 6
Nebraska 5
Missouri 5
Oklahoma 4
Ohio 4
Kentucky 4
Alabama 4
New Hampshire 3
Delaware 3
Arkansas 3
Kansas 2
Idaho 2
West Virginia 1
South Dakota 1
North Dakota 1

Total: 2,888

 

[tall73]

France and Germany compared. Data as of 7/22

 

[Skye1300]

98% of cases are in the community of promiscuous homosexuals or bisexuals.
https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2207323

Somebody probably brought it from Africa and it may become another STD in the community.

It already is now. It's out of control.

 

[tall73]

Data as of 7/25

Spain 3125
United States 2883
Germany 2352
United Kingdom 2213
France 1562
Brazil 813
Netherlands 712
Canada 681
Portugal 588
Italy 407
Belgium 311
Switzerland 234
Peru 143
Israel 114
Democratic Republic of Congo 107
Austria 99
Nigeria 86
Sweden 77
Ireland 69
Denmark 59
Mexico 48
Norway 46
Australia 42
Poland 40
Chile 39
Hungary 32
Slovenia 27
Greece 20
Romania 20
Argentina 18
Ghana 18
Malta 17
United Arab Emirates 16
Czechia 14
Luxembourg 14
Finland 13
Colombia 10
Puerto Rico 8
Singapore 8
Croatia 7
Iceland 6
Serbia 5
Estonia 4
Benin 3
Bulgaria 3
Cameroon 3
Dominican Republic 3
Latvia 3
Slovakia 3
South Africa 3
Central African Republic 2
Ecuador 2
India 2
Jamaica 2
New Zealand 2
Taiwan 2
Barbados 1
Bermuda 1
Bosnia and Herzegovina 1
Costa Rica 1
Georgia 1
Japan 1
Lebanon 1
Martinique 1
Morocco 1
Panama 1
Qatar 1
Russia 1
Saudi Arabia 1
South Korea 1
Turkey 1
Venezuela 1

Total: 17,156

 

[tall73]

It looks like the US is about to overtake Spain in cases. And at some point that is likely, as mentioned before, due to the size of the US.

However, when you look at the charts Spain seems to update less frequently. So I expect a large addition to the numbers for Spain soon, as we have seen previously.

 

[ThatRobGuy]

It looks like the US is about to overtake Spain in cases. And at some point that is likely, as mentioned before, due to the size of the US.

However, when you look at the charts Spain seems to update less frequently. So I expect a large addition to the numbers for Spain soon, as we have seen previously.

View attachment 319117

I presume we'll see a "leveling off" here in the US in the coming weeks as many major cities have started their vaccination drives for it aimed at the most at-risk folks. (and other cities have expanded eligibility)

Like with most vaccines, there's a delay between receiving it and when it reaches its "peak protective effect"

Thankfully, it would appear as this is spreading way slower than Covid did in the early days.

Per the chart you've posted here, the US went from 0 to just under 3000 in about 3 months.

Compared to what the numbers were like for the first 3 months of Covid in the US
COVID-19 Data Explorer


...monkeypox seems pretty tame in comparison.

 

[tall73]

I presume we'll see a "leveling off" here in the US in the coming weeks as many major cities have started their vaccination drives for it aimed at the most at-risk folks. (and other cities have expanded eligibility)

Like with most vaccines, there's a delay between receiving it and when it reaches its "peak protective effect"

Thankfully, it would appear as this is spreading way slower than Covid did in the early days.

Per the chart you've posted here, the US went from 0 to just under 3000 in about 3 months.

Compared to what the numbers were like for the first 3 months of Covid in the US
COVID-19 Data Explorer


...monkeypox seems pretty tame in comparison.

Yes, because it requires sustained close contact.

The goal has been to keep it from becoming endemic here, as it is in Africa. The concern is that it could get into animal populations and then be hard to eradicate, with new outbreaks each year.

However, delays in the vaccine made that less likely. And the numbers we are seeing now reflect the infections from roughly 2 weeks ago, and with very sparse testing.

If it begins breaking into new sub-populations we may not have sufficient doses of the vaccine. And, unfortunately, even after all the lessons from COVID the FDA slow rolled the whole process, holding up deliveries of vaccines due to failure to inspect a facility. This was at a key period, not just because it was early in the pandemic, but because it was during pride month when health experts had warned cases were likely to jump considerably due to ongoing large gatherings of the currently impacted sub-group.

Hopefully we do see that leveling off.

 

[tall73]

Revision of data as of 7/25

...........Original........Revised
New York 900 …………. 990
California 356 …………. 356
Illinois 238 …………. 344
Florida 247 …………. 273
Georgia 211 …………. 268
Texas 107 …………. 220
D. C. 110 …………. 139
Maryland 71 …………. 87
Pennsylvania 55 …………. 84
Massachusetts 79 …………. 82
New Jersey 41 …………. 81
Washington 60 …………. 69
Colorado 41 …………. 53
Oregon 36 …………. 40
Virginia 40 …………. 39 ???
Arizona 29 …………. 35
North Carolina 13 …………. 34
Indiana 31 …………. 33
Louisiana 21 …………. 25
Michigan 27 …………. 24 ???
Connecticut 19 …………. 22
Minnesota 19 …………. 20
Tennessee 15 …………. 18
Ohio 4 …………. 15
South Carolina 7 …………. 12
Utah 13 …………. 11 ???
Nevada 8 …………. 11
Rhode Island 9 …………. 10
Hawaii 8 …………. 10
Wisconsin 6 …………. 9
Puerto Rico 10 …………. 9 ???
Missouri 5 …………. 8
New Mexico 7 …………. 7
Iowa 6 …………. 7
New Hampshire 3 …………. 6
Nebraska 5 …………. 5
Alabama 4 …………. 5
Oklahoma 4 …………. 4
Kentucky 4 …………. 4
Arkansas 3 …………. 4
Delaware 3 …………. 3
Kansas 2 …………. 2
Idaho 2 …………. 2
West Virginia 1 …………. 1
South Dakota 1 …………. 1
North Dakota 1 …………. 1
Mississippi 0 …………. 1

Total.......2888 …………. 3484


There is always lag in the data. And in this case the date of the data still says 7/25, but it has been updated since yesterday evening quite considerably. Probably after the weekend it takes time to get all the information. I have put the original and revised data side by side.

There are also four states who revised their numbers downward. Those are indicated with question marks.

Expecting an update from Spain soon, but for the moment the US is in the lead.

 

[tall73]

Data as of 7/26

Spain 3738
United States 3480
United Kingdom 2437
Germany 2410
France 1562
Netherlands 818
Brazil 813
Canada 681
Portugal 588
Italy 426
Belgium 311
Switzerland 238
Peru 208
Israel 121
Democratic Republic of Congo 107
Austria 99
Nigeria 86
Sweden 77
Ireland 69
Denmark 60
Mexico 60
Norway 49
Australia 44
Poland 40
Chile 39
Hungary 33
Slovenia 27
Greece 20
Romania 20
Argentina 18
Ghana 18
Malta 17
United Arab Emirates 16
Czechia 14
Luxembourg 14
Finland 13
Puerto Rico 13
Colombia 10
Singapore 10
Croatia 7
Iceland 6
Serbia 5
Estonia 4
Benin 3
Bulgaria 3
Cameroon 3
Dominican Republic 3
Latvia 3
Saudi Arabia 3
Slovakia 3
South Africa 3
Central African Republic 2
Ecuador 2
India 2
Jamaica 2
New Zealand 2
Taiwan 2
Barbados 1
Bermuda 1
Bosnia and Herzegovina 1
Costa Rica 1
Georgia 1
Japan 1
Lebanon 1
Martinique 1
Morocco 1
Panama 1
Qatar 1
Russia 1
South Korea 1
Turkey 1
Venezuela 1

Total: 18,877

As expected, we got a big update from Spain, who again took the lead.

 

[tall73]

At this point, I am not sure what to make of the CDC data. We have multiple times seen numbers go down after the fact.

Now New York went from 900 on the 25th, to 990 in the revised 25th data, and then back down to 900 on the data from the 26th. Not much point in looking at data if we can give or take 90 cases.

New York 900
California 356
Illinois 350
Florida 309
Georgia 289
Texas 223
District Of Columbia 191
Massachusetts 96
Pennsylvania 95
Maryland 91
New Jersey 89
Washington 69
Colorado 53
Virginia 40
Oregon 40
North Carolina 38
Arizona 35
Indiana 33
Louisiana 26
Minnesota 25
Michigan 24
Connecticut 24
Utah 22
Tennessee 20
Ohio 17
Rhode Island 13
Wisconsin 12
South Carolina 12
Nevada 11
Puerto Rico 10
Hawaii 10
Oklahoma 8
Iowa 8
New Mexico 7
New Hampshire 6
Kentucky 6
Nebraska 5
Missouri 5
Alabama 5
Arkansas 4
Delaware 3
Idaho 2
West Virginia 1
South Dakota 1
North Dakota 1
Mississippi 1
Maine 1
Kansas 1

Total 3,588

 

[tall73]

New update as of 7/27

New York 1228
California 799
Illinois 385
Florida 332
Georgia 312
Texas 287
District Of Columbia 205
Pennsylvania 114
Massachusetts 113
Washington 103
New Jersey 102
Maryland 101
Colorado 53
Oregon 51
Arizona 41
Virginia 39
Indiana 37
Minnesota 28
Michigan 28
Louisiana 28
Connecticut 28
Utah 22
Tennessee 21
Ohio 17
Rhode Island 16
North Carolina 15
Wisconsin 13
South Carolina 13
Nevada 11
Puerto Rico 10
Hawaii 10
Iowa 9
Oklahoma 8
Nebraska 8
New Mexico 7
New Hampshire 7
Missouri 6
Kentucky 6
Alabama 6
Arkansas 4
Idaho 3
Delaware 3
West Virginia 2
South Dakota 1
North Dakota 1
Mississippi 1
Maine 1
Kansas 1

Total 4,636

California hadn't updated in a while, and this new data really shows a jump.

 

[ThatRobGuy]

Yes, because it requires sustained close contact.

The goal has been to keep it from becoming endemic here, as it is in Africa. The concern is that it could get into animal populations and then be hard to eradicate, with new outbreaks each year.

However, delays in the vaccine made that less likely. And the numbers we are seeing now reflect the infections from roughly 2 weeks ago, and with very sparse testing.

If it begins breaking into new sub-populations we may not have sufficient doses of the vaccine. And, unfortunately, even after all the lessons from COVID the FDA slow rolled the whole process, holding up deliveries of vaccines due to failure to inspect a facility. This was at a key period, not just because it was early in the pandemic, but because it was during pride month when health experts had warned cases were likely to jump considerably due to ongoing large gatherings of the currently impacted sub-group.

Hopefully we do see that leveling off.

Another sign of hope is that Monkeypox appears to be far less lethal, as there have only been 5 deaths globally WHO Chief: 18,000 Monkeypox Cases Worldwide