The Barbarian
Crabby Old White Guy
- Apr 3, 2003
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- US-Libertarian
Trump could make things easier for himself and for down-ballot republicans. But he's so obsessed with getting beaten by Biden, that he just can't get past it. And while some republicans are trying to get him to face reality, it's not working so far.
A good example of this gentle public nudging of Trump to change his approach comes from Vivek Ramaswamy, the former presidential candidate who has been making the media rounds calling for a more focused and even subdued Trump campaign. Here’s his most recent public appearance, via NPR, responding to the question about how Trump should pivot:
“Who’s going to secure the border, who’s going to grow the economy, who’s going to stay out of World War III? And more intangibly ... who’s going to restore national pride in this country? I think Donald Trump has a strong case on all of those counts, and I think he and the Republican Party would be well served to focus on the policy contrasts.”
And yet, in just about every public forum Trump has been involved in since Harris’ ascension, he has been incapable of pivoting to a message that’s anywhere close to the advice from Ramaswamy.
This wouldn’t be hard for a normal candidate. And yet for Trump, it has been quite hard. In talking with folks who know him well, it’s clear he can’t get over losing to Biden in 2020. His only personal hope of moving past the Biden defeat in 2020 was to defeat him in 2024. Now, Biden has denied him that opportunity.
...
All of this explains why Republicans, especially those invested in trying to flip the Senate or hold the House, are begging Trump in public to pivot from a grievance-focused campaign to a policy-focused one. These Republicans know they’d be in a better position if they had a nominee who was future-oriented rather than past-obsessed.
But what happens if Trump never pivots? Then what do these down-ballot Republicans do?
...
No battleground-state Republican could do what Toomey did in 2016 and win in 2024. Toomey felt no pressure to appear with Trump at any Pennsylvania rallies in 2016, but the same can’t be said for McCormick, this year’s GOP Senate nominee in the state. If you doubt me, let me remind you what Trump did in Georgia just a few weeks ago, when he attacked Republican Gov. Brian Kemp for refusing to use (or abuse) his powers as governor to assist in his efforts to question the results in 2020.
The last thing Republican nominees in key Senate races want in 2024 is Trump dogging them in public (which he would do) for not showing up at his rallies. Perhaps the only Republicans who might get a pass for that are former Gov. Larry Hogan in Maryland or maybe Nella Domenici, the GOP nominee for the Senate in New Mexico, where her name is synonymous with Republican politics.
The point is that while Democratic base voters wouldn’t punish a Democrat from running away from their presidential nominee (have you noticed how well Sherrod Brown is holding up in Ohio while he makes a show of skipping the Democratic convention?), there’s plenty of evidence GOP base voters would do that.
This all brings me back to the question: What do Republican down-ballot candidates do if Trump never fully pivots? At some point, the obvious answer would be to run a campaign based on being a “check” on a Harris presidency, similar to what Republicans ran in 2016 against Clinton. But executing that campaign wouldn’t be easy. Just one stray public comment from an anonymous staffer of some campaign that starts to pivot away from Trump, and he could rain you-know-what down on said campaign.
A good example of this gentle public nudging of Trump to change his approach comes from Vivek Ramaswamy, the former presidential candidate who has been making the media rounds calling for a more focused and even subdued Trump campaign. Here’s his most recent public appearance, via NPR, responding to the question about how Trump should pivot:
“Who’s going to secure the border, who’s going to grow the economy, who’s going to stay out of World War III? And more intangibly ... who’s going to restore national pride in this country? I think Donald Trump has a strong case on all of those counts, and I think he and the Republican Party would be well served to focus on the policy contrasts.”
And yet, in just about every public forum Trump has been involved in since Harris’ ascension, he has been incapable of pivoting to a message that’s anywhere close to the advice from Ramaswamy.
This wouldn’t be hard for a normal candidate. And yet for Trump, it has been quite hard. In talking with folks who know him well, it’s clear he can’t get over losing to Biden in 2020. His only personal hope of moving past the Biden defeat in 2020 was to defeat him in 2024. Now, Biden has denied him that opportunity.
...
All of this explains why Republicans, especially those invested in trying to flip the Senate or hold the House, are begging Trump in public to pivot from a grievance-focused campaign to a policy-focused one. These Republicans know they’d be in a better position if they had a nominee who was future-oriented rather than past-obsessed.
But what happens if Trump never pivots? Then what do these down-ballot Republicans do?
...
No battleground-state Republican could do what Toomey did in 2016 and win in 2024. Toomey felt no pressure to appear with Trump at any Pennsylvania rallies in 2016, but the same can’t be said for McCormick, this year’s GOP Senate nominee in the state. If you doubt me, let me remind you what Trump did in Georgia just a few weeks ago, when he attacked Republican Gov. Brian Kemp for refusing to use (or abuse) his powers as governor to assist in his efforts to question the results in 2020.
The last thing Republican nominees in key Senate races want in 2024 is Trump dogging them in public (which he would do) for not showing up at his rallies. Perhaps the only Republicans who might get a pass for that are former Gov. Larry Hogan in Maryland or maybe Nella Domenici, the GOP nominee for the Senate in New Mexico, where her name is synonymous with Republican politics.
The point is that while Democratic base voters wouldn’t punish a Democrat from running away from their presidential nominee (have you noticed how well Sherrod Brown is holding up in Ohio while he makes a show of skipping the Democratic convention?), there’s plenty of evidence GOP base voters would do that.
This all brings me back to the question: What do Republican down-ballot candidates do if Trump never fully pivots? At some point, the obvious answer would be to run a campaign based on being a “check” on a Harris presidency, similar to what Republicans ran in 2016 against Clinton. But executing that campaign wouldn’t be easy. Just one stray public comment from an anonymous staffer of some campaign that starts to pivot away from Trump, and he could rain you-know-what down on said campaign.
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