Many worlds and rain....

[GrowingSmaller]

Lets say it may rain today in New York. The forecast predicts a 70% chance of rain. In one version of this world it will rain, and in another it wont. So, are only those who buy umberellas behaving rationally?

 

[Ana the Ist]

In infinite worlds, one of them has you creating this thread and spelling umbrellas correctly.

 

[FrumiousBandersnatch]

Lets say it may rain today in New York. The forecast predicts a 70% chance of rain. In one version of this world it will rain, and in another it wont. So, are only those who buy umberellas behaving rationally?

Not necessarily, it depends on their individual circumstances and motivations, and on whose judgement of rationality you're using; a decision that seems irrational to you may be quite rational to them. Those who don't buy umbrellas may already have one, or be planning to stay indoors, or prefer waterproof clothing instead, or maybe they like to gamble, or maybe they just don't mind getting wet, or perhaps they disagree with the forecast.

This all seems fairly obvious, so I'm wondering what you're getting at...

 

[GrowingSmaller]

What are the odds of God and the afterlife?

 

[OldWiseGuy]

What are the odds of God and the afterlife?

Doesn't matter. To the believer it's the only game in town.

 

[Crowns&Laurels]

In infinite worlds, one of them has you creating this thread and spelling umbrellas correctly.

In infinite worlds, there's a computer floating in space made from stardust with Christian Forums on the screen depicting Ana the lst as a Christian zealot.

Yeah.. the concept of 'infinite' is more outrageous then any other belief if you ask me.

 

[Ana the Ist]

In infinite worlds, there's a computer floating in space made from stardust with Christian Forums on the screen depicting Ana the lst as a Christian zealot.

Yeah.. the concept of 'infinite' is more outrageous then any other belief if you ask me.

Lol indeed...I think it's why so many physicists dislike the idea of an infinite universe....

...And yet it's a word most christians choose when describing their god.

 

[SkyWriting]

Lets say it may rain today in New York. The forecast predicts a 70% chance of rain. In one version of this world it will rain, and in another it wont. So, are only those who buy umberellas behaving rationally?

Every person behaves rationally. Bothe the 70 and the 30%. Just ask them.

 

[SteveB28]

Taking one side or the other of a binomial probability equation doesn't speak to rationality. Its simply recognising that there is a choice which can be made.

 

[GrowingSmaller]

I did some sums but I am not a mathematician, but I think the average payoff is better when you choose "all buy umbrellas" rather than "70% buy, and 30% dont". Maybe this is the evolutionary cause of black and white thinking in religion? A pressure which favours "all or nothing" decisions in fuzzy situations? Thoughts?

 

[GrowingSmaller]

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tin_foil_hat

My main thinking is this: We are fallible. If we are fallible about faith therefore, we may be right or wrong.

Therefore, we may be in a world either where our belief is right, or in another where it is wrong. This world has to be a option, lest we are not fallible.

We dont know for sure which it is...

This goes even for "I am in a brief coma and in fact a luminous pixie on a holiday".

Because we cannot know which world we are in, absolutely, we are epistemically free to choose our beliefs.

Its like a raffle, we have a ticket choice, and the results are never known directly. You can only succeed or fail in "life" (whatever that is construed to be)...

In sense perception we can "know its raining" but faith????

MAybe all thats left, after science takes its toll, is pragmatism?

 

[GrowingSmaller]

I read in a genetics book all else being equal butterflies tent to mate with others with wing patterns similar to the norm.

I suppose if there is stabilising selection (mainstream or mode are adapted) then the choice implies that it would represent the fitter pattern.

The intended analogy is "wing pattern" with "world view". Are we compelled to comply for reasons, to more "normal" belief systems..

Why would there be a normal distribution, and an average tending towards the empiricical...

The empirical, if not the phantom (Husserl, the phenomenologist, considered the bare sensory data, free from meaning and cultural interpretation, to be a "phantom"....

Occur, if there were not good in it?

 

[GrowingSmaller]

 

[GrowingSmaller]

 

[GrowingSmaller]

Stabilizing, directional, and diversifying selection either decrease, shift, or increase the genetic variance of a population.

Stabilizing selection results in a decrease of a population's genetic variance when natural selection favors an average phenotype and selects against extreme variations.

Viola?

https://www.boundless.com/biology/t...ctional-and-diversifying-selection-535-11742/

 

[GrowingSmaller]

Neitzsche spoke of the breaking of tablets of law (tradition, conformity, rule, culture) but is that .....wise?

 

[GrowingSmaller]

"blessed is he that comes in the name of the Lord....." One for the catholics, traditionalists especially.

 

[KCfromNC]

I did some sums but I am not a mathematician, but I think the average payoff is better when you choose "all buy umbrellas" rather than "70% buy, and 30% dont".

Depends on the probability distribution for caring about getting wet, among lots of other difficult to characterize factors.

 

[GrowingSmaller]

Atheism. Not knowing whether it is raining or not, and deciding to go without the unberella.

 

[KCfromNC]

Atheism. Not knowing whether it is raining or not, and deciding to go without the unberella.

Athiesm - watching a bunch of people wearing rain coats and using umbrellas on a sunny day, all the while insisting that it is raining. Or maybe snowing. Others say sleet. Some are positive it is raining frogs. But they're invisible frogs that you need faith to see. And you're immoral if you don't see them.