Just How Bad Is Denominational Decline?

[Michie]

“Not everything that is faced can be changed, but nothing can be changed until it is faced.” - James Baldwin

One mistake that I make all the time is assuming that someone else has probably done the work that needs to be done to get the answer that I want. This post was driven by looking for an answer to a pretty simple question: if denominations just managed to grow at the same rate as the general population of the United States, how large would they be today?

I mean, it’s readily apparent that denominations are losing membership at an alarming rate. I wrote a deep dive into the PCUSA a few weeks ago. But I wanted to be a little less deep and a little broader in this post.

I grabbed membership data on nine denominations. They are six in the mainline tradition: American Baptist Church, Evangelical Lutheran Church of America, Presbyterian Church USA, The Episcopal Church, the United Church of Christ, and the United Methodist Church. Those six represent the vast majority of the mainline.

There are three in the evangelical tradition included as well: the Assemblies of God, the Southern Baptist Convention, and the Presbyterian Church of America. The SBC is easily the largest denomination in the evangelical family and the AoG is growing quickly. The PCA was added for two reasons: people ask me about it all the time and the PCA folks make their data easy to find.

That’s really the first question I ask when someone wants some information about their denomination: do they make their data easy to acquire in a decent format? If they don’t, I just don’t bother with it. The biggest blind spot here is non-denominational Protestant Christianity. There is absolutely no way to gather data on that tradition, but it’s clear that it’s growing incredibly fast.

But the focus here is on denominational Protestantism. So, keep that in mind.

Continued below.

Just How Bad Is Denominational Decline?

A deep dive into the trajectory of nine denominations

www.graphsaboutreligion.com

 

[Pioneer3mm]

Interesting/informative article.
---
I was involved in several denominations (& non-denominational).
- UMC, PCA, PCUSA & AOG..
- during my spiritual journey..since 1970's.

 

[fide]

The data are not surprising: godlessness is increasing. People are growing away from God, from Truth, from morality - both in religion and in the (more) secular world. RINOs (religious-in-name-only) dilute the power and Presence of God, and the crucially important witness of the faithful, in the pagan world where the lay apostolate is primary. All this delights the cold heart of the evil one and his minions. And it is dreadfully discouraging to many in the remnant.
Thus we need to pray! For grace, for fortitude, for courage, for help! But most of all, I believe, for growth and deepening in the interior life of precious union with God in the inner person of the soul. Without that we are hardly noticed as enemies and obstacles of the evil one, who continues to advance in his work of killing or capturing poor souls adrift in the world.

 

[Markie Boy]

I am searching for a church home, so can share what I found personally. The Lutheran churches I checked out (NALC and LCMS), have almost no kids. Local Presbyterian - no kids. Local Catholic parish I used to attend, few kids. Baptist church - pretty good shape, quite a few kids. Non-denominational - growing fast, no room in parking lot - but still not many kids.

The "older" churches (Catholic, Lutheran, Presbyterian), are going to be empty or closed in a decade here, just by the simple math. It's sad.

I visited the local Lutheran LCMS, and they have a really nice play area with a jungle gym and stuff for kids.....and it sits empty. You can see that once it was probably a busy spot with kids playing, and parents talking, but now just empty - it's sad.

The problem does not have denominational boundries. I am in a rural area, and see people with more boats, four wheelers, big trucks, and toys in general than I ever saw growing up. It looks like America traded children for stuff. When we go to the city it's the same but different - bigger houses, more expensive cars, electronics, etc..

Kids are expensive (I know, I happily have four), and take time. But the focus on self is catching up with us.

 

[JimR-OCDS]

TV and movies show Christians as narrow-minded clueless bigots.

Whether it's the New Sheldon, or the Simpson's, it's all the same. Christians are
portrayed as dopes.

Is it any wonder why young people are rejecting religion all together?

I just watched two good Christian movies on Tubi, "90 Minutes in Heaven" and "Candle in the Dark." Both are
excellent true stories. However, the viewer has to watch the tv ads that are presented. One which was
shown twice during both movies was an Xfinity ad featuring LGBTQ Draq Queen entertainment. I thought,
who was the idiot that decided that these ads were appropriate, not just in faith-based movies, but in any
section on Tubi? Either way, the message in both movies was about God being in control, not our warped
society.

 

[Jacque_Pierre22]

I am searching for a church home, so can share what I found personally. The Lutheran churches I checked out (NALC and LCMS), have almost no kids. Local Presbyterian - no kids. Local Catholic parish I used to attend, few kids. Baptist church - pretty good shape, quite a few kids. Non-denominational - growing fast, no room in parking lot - but still not many kids.

The "older" churches (Catholic, Lutheran, Presbyterian), are going to be empty or closed in a decade here, just by the simple math. It's sad.

I visited the local Lutheran LCMS, and they have a really nice play area with a jungle gym and stuff for kids.....and it sits empty. You can see that once it was probably a busy spot with kids playing, and parents talking, but now just empty - it's sad.

The problem does not have denominational boundries. I am in a rural area, and see people with more boats, four wheelers, big trucks, and toys in general than I ever saw growing up. It looks like America traded children for stuff. When we go to the city it's the same but different - bigger houses, more expensive cars, electronics, etc..

Kids are expensive (I know, I happily have four), and take time. But the focus on self is catching up with us.

yup there's an economic decline in general. the situation gets worse every year. I call it the Canada-ification of the usa, higher prices, and more liberal authoritarian on everything. North Carolina is rapidly becoming blue, and soon it's over, like judgement out of Zephaniah or something.

 

[chevyontheriver]

I am searching for a church home, so can share what I found personally. The Lutheran churches I checked out (NALC and LCMS), have almost no kids. Local Presbyterian - no kids. Local Catholic parish I used to attend, few kids. Baptist church - pretty good shape, quite a few kids. Non-denominational - growing fast, no room in parking lot - but still not many kids.

The "older" churches (Catholic, Lutheran, Presbyterian), are going to be empty or closed in a decade here, just by the simple math. It's sad.

I visited the local Lutheran LCMS, and they have a really nice play area with a jungle gym and stuff for kids.....and it sits empty. You can see that once it was probably a busy spot with kids playing, and parents talking, but now just empty - it's sad.

The problem does not have denominational boundries. I am in a rural area, and see people with more boats, four wheelers, big trucks, and toys in general than I ever saw growing up. It looks like America traded children for stuff. When we go to the city it's the same but different - bigger houses, more expensive cars, electronics, etc..

Kids are expensive (I know, I happily have four), and take time. But the focus on self is catching up with us.

The presence of kids in a congregation is something you are right to key on. If there were no kids in a congregation I would see that as a big red flag. My own present parish does OK in that regard. But the place that knocks my socks off in that regard was my old parish in Stillwater MN, St. Michael's. I've dropped in on them in a return visit and the kids were, from rug rats to teens, ubiquitous. Oh, and that parish got the recognition from ReverentCatholicMass.com finally, a well deserved thing. I know that would be a long drive for you but you should at least visit once. It is a healthy parish.

 

[chevyontheriver]

“Not everything that is faced can be changed, but nothing can be changed until it is faced.” - James Baldwin

One mistake that I make all the time is assuming that someone else has probably done the work that needs to be done to get the answer that I want. This post was driven by looking for an answer to a pretty simple question: if denominations just managed to grow at the same rate as the general population of the United States, how large would they be today?

I mean, it’s readily apparent that denominations are losing membership at an alarming rate. I wrote a deep dive into the PCUSA a few weeks ago. But I wanted to be a little less deep and a little broader in this post.

I grabbed membership data on nine denominations. They are six in the mainline tradition: American Baptist Church, Evangelical Lutheran Church of America, Presbyterian Church USA, The Episcopal Church, the United Church of Christ, and the United Methodist Church. Those six represent the vast majority of the mainline.

There are three in the evangelical tradition included as well: the Assemblies of God, the Southern Baptist Convention, and the Presbyterian Church of America. The SBC is easily the largest denomination in the evangelical family and the AoG is growing quickly. The PCA was added for two reasons: people ask me about it all the time and the PCA folks make their data easy to find.

That’s really the first question I ask when someone wants some information about their denomination: do they make their data easy to acquire in a decent format? If they don’t, I just don’t bother with it. The biggest blind spot here is non-denominational Protestant Christianity. There is absolutely no way to gather data on that tradition, but it’s clear that it’s growing incredibly fast.

But the focus here is on denominational Protestantism. So, keep that in mind.

Continued below.

Just How Bad Is Denominational Decline?

A deep dive into the trajectory of nine denominations

www.graphsaboutreligion.com

Among the Presbyterians the PCA (conservative) seems to grow as the PCUSA (liberal) crashes. But the overall number of Presbyterians is still crashing. Almost 2 million PCUSA members went away and the PCA went up 150,000 in the process. I expect many others went to other tiny conservative Presbyterian groups, or non-denominationals, or to become Nones.

The SBC (somewhat conservative) is in a tailspin after past growth. Some of that may be their recently revealed sexual abuse problems. I would guess they continue to tailspin. The bare data is whopper. Being the largest denomination and all.

The AoG is a bright spot. At least nationally if not in every locale. We should all be paying attention to why they grow. But also why their growth is beginning to zero out. Why is that? Are some of them beginning to go woke, or what's happening?

 

[Markie Boy]

An observation I have seen first hand on kids. We have a conservative Baptist church in town, and they have more large families than any other locally I think. Our Catholic parish is pretty liberal, and they have few kids, and almost zero large families. But I have been to a more conservative Catholic parish and did see more kids.

Regardless of denomination - it seems those that take their faith seriously and live it, have more kids. Those that are there for the check mark, not so much.

 

[chevyontheriver]

An observation I have seen first hand on kids. We have a conservative Baptist church in town, and they have more large families than any other locally I think. Our Catholic parish is pretty liberal, and they have few kids, and almost zero large families. But I have been to a more conservative Catholic parish and did see more kids.

Regardless of denomination - it seems those that take their faith seriously and live it, have more kids. Those that are there for the check mark, not so much.

Some Catholic parishes are contracepting themselves out of existence. They are the more liberal. They know oh so much more than pope Paul VI. They will soon enough perish. Some Baptist congregations, and some other Protestants too have realized that children are a blessing and they plan on having a quiver full of them. It comes down to living the Theology of the Body, even implicitly sometimes. Sounds like the Baptists get Catholic teaching (shhh don't tell them) which used to be common normal Christian teaching and the Catholics up there have abandoned it in favor of mush.

I get it why you dumped the Catholic Church. Your diocese is kinda mush. And why you aren't finding a fit outside of the Catholic Church. They are only half what you need. Not an easy place to be. But the observation about kids is helpful.

 

[Markie Boy]

Thanks for the observation on where I am at. It's pretty close. Catholicism here has almost 100% foreign clergy. Some of them are better than the local ones I have seen, but for the most part it's really hard for them to connect to people. And they don't have a sense of "this is my parish" it seems. They know they are going to be moving, and it makes building community harder.

The Baptists know they will have their pastor for a long time, and they seem to become like family. Good community, conservative, lot's to like. Something to learn there I think. I always get clobbered for saying so - but I think not having married pastors that have families hurts. There is so much to gain, a real connection to families. And it's totally Biblical and early church.

I have been to a non-denom who's parking lot is so full you can't get a spot, and baptist church that's the same. The wives of the pastors help with children's programs, women's group/Bible study, women's counseling......

One can argue whatever in theory - but by simple math, in 10 years the Catholic parishes here will be empty or closed, while the Baptist and non-denom will probably still be full.

 

[mourningdove~]

One can argue whatever in theory - but by simple math, in 10 years the Catholic parishes here will be empty or closed, ...

That's a very sad thought.
Something is very wrong, that the Church with the Eucharist and sacraments should be dwindling ...

I hope your prediction proves wrong, but I am seeing too many struggling RC churches where I am also ...

 

[chevyontheriver]

Thanks for the observation on where I am at. It's pretty close. Catholicism here has almost 100% foreign clergy. Some of them are better than the local ones I have seen, but for the most part it's really hard for them to connect to people. And they don't have a sense of "this is my parish" it seems. They know they are going to be moving, and it makes building community harder.

The Baptists know they will have their pastor for a long time, and they seem to become like family. Good community, conservative, lot's to like. Something to learn there I think. I always get clobbered for saying so - but I think not having married pastors that have families hurts. There is so much to gain, a real connection to families. And it's totally Biblical and early church.

I have been to a non-denom who's parking lot is so full you can't get a spot, and baptist church that's the same. The wives of the pastors help with children's programs, women's group/Bible study, women's counseling......

One can argue whatever in theory - but by simple math, in 10 years the Catholic parishes here will be empty or closed, while the Baptist and non-denom will probably still be full.

My new parish has four seminarians home grown attending seminary. The rest of this diocese is otherwise doing halfway OK in that regard too. The diocese of Superior? I have my opinions. Why should they be stealing priests from Africa where they really are needed to foster real growth there? I could say something uncharitable so I will stop.

That we have four seminarians in one parish is another indicator of normal healthy parish life. A healthy parish with healthy families produces priests. That has nothing actually to do with celibacy. Nonetheless I have met two married priests and, well, at least one of them is thriving. The other I have not heard of in a few years but ran into trouble with his bishop.

If you note from the article the Baptists, at least the SBC, are in real trouble, with numbers that were pretty good now in a nosedive. Recent sexual abuse revelations are going to continue to damage them even with married clergy. Of course the Nondenoms have no such problem mostly because they don’t really have statistics because they have no structure to gather statistics. Problem solved.

The future of Christianity is hard to speculate. Even the AofG which has had phenomenal growth is looking like it has leveled off. Some people, some Catholics too, join them as the local non-sinking ship but more people become Nones. What would I do? I would move to a place that had a solid Catholic parish in a solid Catholic diocese. That can’t be an afterthought. Or something just off the table.

 

[mourningdove~]

The AoG is a bright spot. At least nationally if not in every locale. We should all be paying attention to why they grow. But also why their growth is beginning to zero out. Why is that? Are some of them beginning to go woke, or what's happening?

I know alittle about the AOG. Both my husband and his Dad were ordained AOG pastors; they pastored in the earlier AOG days.
(I worked in the AOG for awhile, also.)

The AOG (at least in America) has changed quite abit from its early days, when their services included in-depth Bible sermons, preaching against sin, time spent at the altar in repentance, persons operating in the spiritual gifts, persons healed, emphasis on intercessory prayer, etc. Revivals were regularly scheduled, and there were many stories of how God 'moved' in those revivals!

AOGs were pretty consistent in their ways in the early days. Nowadays, one does not find that kind of consistency within the AOG. Each AOG seems to operate more independent of one another now. So there are probably still some good ones, and some not so good.

I don't know about wokeness ... but back a number of years now, Word of Faith teachings (i.e., Rhema Bible College) moved into many AOGs.
Can't say for sure why the AOG may have been growing in recent years in America, except that in hard financial times persons do tend to be attracted to the gospel of prosperity and happiness that WOF offers. That would be my best guess. (The one big WOF church we have in town is HUGELY attended. I'm told many left their churches and flocked to it, when it opened years ago.)

Though I am Catholic again now, I still have a great appreciation for the early AOG ways.

Were the AOG to go back to their earlier roots? I believe we would begin to see genuine revival in America again ...

 

[Pioneer3mm]

Were the AOG go back to their earlier roots? I think we would begin to see genuine revival again

Good point.
---
AOG started..as a movement.
- During the early 20th century.
---
Revivals/Movements..change..
- from original fervor, vision, commitment..
- after the first generation.
---
It becomes another establishment..when they get the status/recognition..
- in Christian History.
---
I was involved in AOG..years ago.

 

[Markie Boy]

I have stayed out of the loop on news. I wasn't aware the SBC was having some sex abuse scandals.

I have no experience with the AOG - was it a big leap from there to Catholicism?

I am personally stuck at not seeing the Vatican I papal position in the early church, and if there is actually a ministerial priest position, as I don't see one in scripture, or very clear in the early church.

 

[chevyontheriver]

I know alittle about the AOG. Both my husband and his Dad were ordained AOG pastors; they pastored in the earlier AOG days.
(I worked in the AOG for awhile, also.)

The AOG (at least in America) has changed quite abit from its early days, when their services included in-depth Bible sermons, preaching against sin, time spent at the altar in repentance, persons operating in the spiritual gifts, persons healed, emphasis on intercessory prayer, etc. Revivals were regularly scheduled, and there were many stories of how God 'moved' in those revivals!

AOGs were pretty consistent in their ways in the early days. Nowadays, one does not find that kind of consistency within the AOG. Each AOG seems to operate more independent of one another now. So there are probably still some good ones, and some not so good.

I don't know about wokeness ... but back a number of years now, Word of Faith teachings (i.e., Rhema Bible College) moved into many AOGs.
Can't say for sure why the AOG may have been growing in recent years in America, except that in hard financial times persons do tend to be attracted to the gospel of prosperity and happiness that WOF offers. That would be my best guess. (The one big WOF church we have in town is HUGELY attended. I'm told many left their churches and flocked to it, when it opened years ago.)

Though I am Catholic again now, I still have a great appreciation for the early AOG ways.

Were the AOG to go back to their earlier roots? I believe we would begin to see genuine revival in America again ...

Not really sure what WOF is, but the prosperity thing is alien to the faith. What proportion of AofG are into that? And how deep does that spirituality run when times get tough?

I tend to agree with you about earlier AofG stuff. Strange but powerful.

 

[mourningdove~]

I have no experience with the AOG - was it a big leap from there to Catholicism?

For some it might be, but for me it has not been.

I was raised Catholic ... pre-Vatican II.
I received a solid Catholic education as a young person.

But things got 'wonky' in the churches where I was living, with the introduction of Vatican II.
I, and many others, drifted away during that time of confusion and change ...

Was indirectly a blessing ...
I married and relocated (unknowingly ... lol!) into the Bible Belt, found myself bombarded with the Bible, Christian music, and lots of loving Christians of all persuasions, and there had a genuine conversion experience with the Lord.

I was in and out of a variety of Protestant denominations, and non-denominations, for many many years. I continued to grow in faith, and was blessed by God in many ways thru my affiliations with the different churches and the types of believers I encountered.

While Protestant, I sought and received the baptism of the Holy Spirit. My life changed.
I learned of Charismatic Catholics, and sought them out.
Unfortunately, this particular group was loving but lacked spiritual discernment, as did I.
I got into some serious spiritual trouble there, and literally fled all things Catholic ...

Next stop was the AOG, where I began to learn rightly about spiritual gifts, etc.
I remarried, and was AOG for many years.

I recently officially reverted (again) to the Catholic Church.
Both times I reverted, were at very challenging times in my life.
When it comes to finding the answers to the deeper issues in life?
I always find the answers in Catholicism.

And only the Catholic Church has the Eucharist, and the sacraments.
I need all the grace God will grant me, to make it in this world.

... so for me, it was not a big leap to come back!
Honestly, I have never been able to stay away for long ...

I admire the persons that have never left Catholicism and have remained steadfast and faithful all the years of their life.
They have something I will never have. But for some of us, our journey has needed to be alittle different ...

 

[mourningdove~]

Not really sure what WOF is, but the prosperity thing is alien to the faith. What proportion of AofG are into that? And how deep does that spirituality run when times get tough?

I tend to agree with you about earlier AofG stuff. Strange but powerful.

WOF = Word of Faith ... and today we know them as the 'prosperity' group.
But their founder, Kenneth E. Hagin, did not preach or teach prosperity like we hear it done today.
The early Word of Faith movement actually had some very good components to it.

I don't know what proportion of the AOG leans WOF, but it is there.
Like so many churches, they seem to keep 'evolving' ... in the name of 'progress'.

P.S. Yep, when times get tough, 'fluffy' Christianity just does not work ...

 

[chevyontheriver]

I have stayed out of the loop on news. I wasn't aware the SBC was having some sex abuse scandals.

I have no experience with the AOG - was it a big leap from there to Catholicism?

I am personally stuck at not seeing the Vatican I papal position in the early church, and if there is actually a ministerial priest position, as I don't see one in scripture, or very clear in the early church.

The problem with Catholicism is that it keeps having some Biblical support that people have to work hard at refusing to see. Petrine primacy is all over the NT and the presbyterial ministry is as real as the priesthood of all believers. We can try to ignore it all for a while but it’s there. Maybe not fully formed but nonetheless there.

As to the papacy, it was easy to believe in papal maximalism with good popes. And now it is much easier to see the need for limits on the papacy which are rational in the face of the new confusions in Rome.

Vatican II sort of completed Vatican I. After pope Francis is gone we will have another round of discussions on the papacy, with what I expect to be more limits to the concept of infallibility. That concept was always limited, but I expect will be even more limited. It is essential though for the Church to have some infallibility.