Is the Corona Virus really all what it's made to be?

[tall73]

Here are mortality stats by age group from

Coronavirus Age, Sex, Demographics (COVID-19) - Worldometer

Based on:

A paper by the Chinese CCDC released on Feb. 17, which is based on 72,314 confirmed, suspected, and asymptomatic cases of COVID-19 in China as of Feb. 11, and was published in the Chinese Journal of Epidemiology

COVID-19 Fatality Rate by AGE:
*Death Rate = (number of deaths / number of cases) = probability of dying if infected by the virus (%). This probability differs depending on the age group.

80+ years old 14.8%
70-79 years old 8.0%
60-69 years old 3.6%
50-59 years old 1.3%
40-49 years old 0.4%
30-39 years old 0.2%
20-29 years old 0.2%
10-19 years old 0.2%
0-9 years old no fatalities

 

[Heavenhome]

Tom Hanks and his wife have the virus and they are now in Gold Coast hospital in Queensland. Australia.

 

[Beetlepumper]

Here is the best answers I have found.

 

[tall73]

Comparing the earlier posted Covid stats to a specific data set from historic influenza seasons.

Covid 19:

80+ years old 14.8%
70-79 years old 8.0%
60-69 years old 3.6%
50-59 years old 1.3%
40-49 years old 0.4%
30-39 years old 0.2%
20-29 years old 0.2%
10-19 years old 0.2%
0-9 years old no fatalities

Figure 3 - 1918 Influenza: the Mother of All Pandemics - Volume 12, Number 1—January 2006 - Emerging Infectious Diseases journal - CDC

Case-fatality rates (panel C, solid line), US Public Health Service house-to-house surveys, 8 states, 1918 . A more typical curve of age-specific influenza case-fatality (panel C, dotted line) is taken from US Public Health Service surveys during 1928–1929.

 

[tall73]

This is from the John Hopkins data tracking map, showing cases per day, focusing on the time period of major spread outside of Mainland China.

 

[Trogdor the Burninator]

Travel bans are starting to become common now.

India has closed their borders to tourists, Israel is quarantining all visitors for 14 days, US has closed their borders to the Schengen zone, Australia has banned entry from China, Korea and Iran, with Italy likely, etc.

And even for those who want to travel, insurance is almost impossible to obtain now leading most people to defer their plans. Word is Cathay Pacific have grounded over 100 of their planes, a substantial number of airlines have ended all China flights...

 

[whatbogsends]

I am sick of the hysteria. Everyone in the hospitals are tired of the hysteria. Personally, if I know someone who tests positive, I might go get exposed while my immune system is high and just get it over with so I can have immunity for the rest of this season.

Remember, I am a nurse. I will be holding the hands, wiping the foreheads, helping these people breath...regardless of whether they have the flu, pneumonia, rsv, or Covid19. I will be walking into these room without any virus and be at risk for catching these diseases and taking them home to my family. How on earth does that give the impression that I don't care about medical frail people?

Let me get this straight. You're considering intentionally exposing yourself to the virus, and you are a nurse that will be holding the hands, wiping the foreheads, etc., of vulnerable people.

If you're serious about both of these, then you will be putting a considerable number of people at risk. If these are the attitudes of our health care professionals, we're in big trouble.​

 

[durangodawood]

So I assume you are staying home tomorrow? If not, why?

I should add.... I have certain factors in my life that make it easy for me to stay home. So I'm probably a bad case study for looking at the considerations that people will typically evaluate.

I'm sure there are plenty of people who need to go to work for one reason or another. All I'm saying is that the risk to others of becoming a disease vector are significant and should be considered when deciding whether to go out for work or fun or shopping.

 

[Halbhh]

16% of all the people who catch it have moderate to severe cases. Most of those are older people, those with chronic health conditions, or both.

Yes, flu has similar stats for the elderly population that has chronic conditions.

No disease kills anyone that doesn't get it. And Covid19 doesn't kill 16% of the old people population. 16% of the population doesn't even have Covid19

One of the really surprising things that happened yesterday was the science trained chancellor of Germany
Angela Merkel
saying that 60% or 70% of Germans could eventaully (over time) contract the virus. Like what!? wow.

And the NYTimes had a good piece on that, and biostatisticians say the likely range is probably 30-60% over time, with the lowest estimate from one of them in the 30-50% range.

So, we are very early yet, and we want to slow that way down, so we don't get the a 0.6% death rate applying to 40% of our U.S. population, of course!

Which would be... something over 700,000 deaths. That's what we are now beginning to work to avoid. That's what we will do big measures to prevent.

 

[JCFantasy23]

Germany reports more than 2,000 coronavirus cases: Johns Hopkins University

There are now 2,078 coronavirus cases in Germany, statistics from the Johns Hopkins University showed on Thursday.

Germany’s Robert Koch Institute for disease control had published its latest figures on Wednesday evening, showing 1,567 confirmed cases and 3 deaths related to the virus.

 

[JCFantasy23]

China coronavirus adviser expects global pandemic to be over by June
BEIJING (Reuters) - The global coronavirus pandemic is likely to be over by June, Zhong Nanshan, the Chinese government’s senior medical adviser, said on Thursday.

 

[sfs]

So, we are very early yet, and we want to slow that way down, so we don't get the a 0.6% death rate applying to 40% of our U.S. population, of course!

Which would be... something over 700,000 deaths. That's what we are now beginning to work to avoid. That's what we will do big measures to prevent.

I think you're being optimistic here. The death rate with an intact health care system seems to be more like 0.9%, judging from the trends in China and S. Korea as cases evolve. (Of course, that might be lower in a population with fewer smokers and higher in an older population.) The point of slowing the outbreak down is to keep the death rate that low. It will take very little to overwhelm our hospitals, at which point the death rate will increase to something like 3% - 5%. That's what we're trying to avoid.

 

[pitabread]

And the NYTimes had a good piece on that, and biostatisticians say the likely range is probably 30-60% over time, with the lowest estimate from one of them in the 30-50% range.

The Canadian Health Minister just said the same thing, that between 30 and 70 percent of the population could ultimately contract it.

This is why it is so critical to slow its spread, so that the pace of the disease doesn't overwhelm the ability for health services to respond to it.

 

[Halbhh]

I think you're being optimistic here. The death rate with an intact health care system seems to be more like 0.9%, judging from the trends in China and S. Korea as cases evolve. (Of course, that might be lower in a population with fewer smokers and higher in an older population.) The point of slowing the outbreak down is to keep the death rate that low. It will take very little to overwhelm our hospitals, at which point the death rate will increase to something like 3% - 5%. That's what we're trying to avoid.

Please see this new thread, where you could help. It seems the South Korea rate has to do with the far better level of detection (as like Chinese provinces away from the epicenter province), and also age of population. I did try to indicate the illustrative estimate was only a suggestion of the potential -- a range of what would be possible without sufficient measures that we need to be doing to do to prevent it. It does seem the measures of South Korea could help us, along with the other things we are doing and will do.
Why Covid19 justifies such dramatic measures

 

[Halbhh]

China coronavirus adviser expects global pandemic to be over by June
BEIJING (Reuters) - The global coronavirus pandemic is likely to be over by June, Zhong Nanshan, the Chinese government’s senior medical adviser, said on Thursday.

Yes, the Chinese effort is very impressive!

Here's a new thread about why we need a big effort:
Why Covid19 justifies such dramatic measures

 

[Nithavela]

One of the really surprising things that happened yesterday was the science trained chancellor of Germany
Angela Merkel
saying that 60% or 70% of Germans could eventaully (over time) contract the virus. Like what!? wow.

And the NYTimes had a good piece on that, and biostatisticians say the likely range is probably 30-60% over time, with the lowest estimate from one of them in the 30-50% range.

So, we are very early yet, and we want to slow that way down, so we don't get the a 0.6% death rate applying to 40% of our U.S. population, of course!

Which would be... something over 700,000 deaths. That's what we are now beginning to work to avoid. That's what we will do big measures to prevent.

She's a physicist, not a physician.

 

[Nithavela]

China coronavirus adviser expects global pandemic to be over by June
BEIJING (Reuters) - The global coronavirus pandemic is likely to be over by June, Zhong Nanshan, the Chinese government’s senior medical adviser, said on Thursday.

I remember them predicting that it would be over in mid february. And then mid march.

Covid 19 is here to stay. It will only become less of a threat when there's a vaccine.

 

[Halbhh]

She's a physicist, not a physician.

That's good, helpful, in that this is also a number statistics thing, but as you can see, by looking at that post, these range estimates are from biostatiticians -- people that are specialists/experts on exactly this kind of question.

 

[tall73]

CDC director says some coronavirus-related deaths have been found posthumously

Rouda then asked Redfield if they are doing posthumous testing.

Redfield said there has been "a surveillance system of deaths from pneumonia, that the CDC has; it’s not in every city, every state, every hospital.”

Rouda followed up and asked, “So we could have some people in the United States dying for what appears to be influenza when in fact it could be the coronavirus?”

The doctor replied that “some cases have actually been diagnosed that way in the United States today.”

 

[rambot]

We are prepared. It takes no different care for hospitalized for the flu. We have plenty of beds...and like I said, if they become strained, we have policies in place to start discharging healthier patients and postponing non-emergency cases.

Do you ever intubate because of the flu?
I have several friends who are nurses and while thye CLEARLY say, "don't panic", they also say that it's time to make some simple lifestyle changes and be conscious and they recognize the people they care for are in danger (3 of them work in oncology though).

And it isn't 16% of all people ... but rather 16% of those who test positive. I have read more updated info and it is now being reported that 12% are moderate (not needing hospitalization in most cases) and only 4% as severe.

As I mentioned in another post, they expect UP TO 50-75% infection rate throughout Canada.
Let's say the lower number, 50%
That is 16,000,000 people who will get it. I don't know if this is a "normal" infection rate but I have a hard time believe 16mil get the flu throughout canada.
Of course 16million, that means just the 4% of severe cases that REQUIRE hospital interventions. 640,000.
My nurse friend said that moderate cases often require hospital stays too. So if just 1/2 of those require that, it's 1.2 million sick ON TOP of what is already happenning through "routine" care in our health system.
That's a big deal up here.

I don't know about what American hospital look like in terms of their bed space etc....