Is President Trump already winning the trade war with China?

[Logic Over Emotionalism]

Much depends on how President Trump and the communists in Beijing play the next round in the trade war game. According to calculations by Goldman Sachs, if the full scope of Trump's proposed protectionism is implemented, it would raise the total amount of goods subject to tariffs to nearly $800 billion. Or about four times the cumulative amount proposed just a few months ago.

China appears more vulnerable, with Societe Generale economists estimating that the Chinese economy could lose 1 percentage point of GDP growth and upwards of four million jobs while the U.S. would suffer a modest 0.2 percentage point drag on GDP growth.

According to a report by the AP, Ningbo Top East Technology, which makes soldering irons south of Shanghai, has suffered upwards of a 50 percent drop in U.S.-bound orders, which used to make up roughly a third of its total order book. The problem is that the company is asking customers to split the cost of the tariff hike. But few are willing.

Another wrinkle to the China trade war story is a Reuters report that the European Union flatly rejected a proposal by Beijing to form a strategic alliance to take on the U.S. on trade. This is possibly because Europe knows deep down that China's mercantilism is real -- and that they have been guilty of similar behavior in the past.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.cb...ident-trump-already-winning-the-tariff-fight/

China has more to lose economically in an all-out trade war. The Chinese economy is dependent on exports, and nearly 20 percent of its exports go to the United States. It sold $506 billion in stuff and services to the United States last year. In contrast, the United States sold $130 billion to the Chinese.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.wa...-in-a-trade-war-but-trump-has-a-key-weakness/

Four separate sources working for Chinese media, who were briefed on these internal instructions, told the South China Morning Post that they were told not to “over-report” the trade war with US and be extremely careful about linking the trade war to stock market falls, the depreciation of the yuan or economic weakness to avoid spreading panic.

“When you report a fall in the stock market index or a weakening in the yuan’s exchange rate, you can’t use ‘trade war’ in your headline,” one source with an official Chinese media outlet, who declined to be named, said.

Beijing is taking a softer approach to deal with the U.S. compared with its previous tactic of making public attacks and launching popular boycotts, which has been used against Japan, South Korea and the Philippines in the past.

China has already told its media to tone down its coverage of Made in China 2025 — a plan to boost its hi-tech sector that has frequently been criticized by the U.S. — and to shun personal attacks on Trump in the hope of de-escalating the situation.

https://www.politico.com/story/2018/07/15/china-trade-war-trump-722242

So will the U.S. beat China in this battle? Yes, says storied investor Mark Mobius for our call of the day.

“I think at the end of the day, the U.S. is going to win this one, because the U.S. is the biggest importer in the world, and China needs the U.S.,” he told CNBC in an interview late yesterday.

What would victory look like in this case?

“Winning means getting some concessions and a reduction in the trade deficit,” Mobius says.

President Donald Trump is right to view the huge trade gap with China as a problem, according to the former Templeton star manager.

“I agree with him completely,” Mobius says, referring to Trump. “The U.S. has been taken for a ride — let’s face it — over the last 20 or 30 years. It’s time to start saying, ‘Look, there has to be some reciprocity between these two countries, because it’s just crazy to have this kind of deficit.’”

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.marketwatch.com/amp/story/guid/6E193068-7E95-11E8-8A55-5CB0E0C02B8A

President Donald Trump is beating China in a trade war that could soon escalate, CNBC’s Jim Cramer said on Friday.

“I think we're winning," the "Mad Money" host argued. "The market is saying we're winning.”

Look no further than the stock market for confirmation that the U.S. is getting the best of China on trade, he said.

The S&P 500 on Friday hit a four-month high after rallying nearly 1 percent in the prior session. The strong Thursday also saw the Nasdaq close at a record high. The S&P 500, Nasdaq and the Dow Jones Industrial Average were also tracking for their second straight week of gains.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.cn...ade-war-and-the-stock-market-confirms-it.html

Wall Street trader and Sarge986 President Stephen Guilfoyle said President Trump's trade policies have China "by the short hairs" and "right where we want them" in the bid to win any impending trade wars.

Guilfoyle said on Your World that "we've got a pretty hot economy" and that China is struggling in comparison.

https://www.google.com/amp/insider.foxnews.com/amp/article/62360

As trade tensions continue, Mohamed El-Erian told CNBC that the U.S. is winning the trade war.

"In relative terms, we are winning and we will win the trade war," El-Erian, chief economic advisor at Allianz, said Monday on "Fast Money." El-Erian is considered one of the most influential financial market thinkers in the world.

"Just look at the performance of U.S. markets relative to China and relative to others," said El-Erian, who was CEO of Pimco. "That is consistent."

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.cn...ning-the-trade-war-says-mohamed-el-erian.html

Higher US rates and the stronger greenback – which is up 6 per cent since mid-April, based on Thomson Reuter's trade-weighted index – is causing some angst that Chinese businesses that have borrowed heavily in dollars may struggle to service their debt, and ultimately may not be able to repay of refinance their obligations.

American voters appear to similarly be on-board with their president pushing China on trade – his approval rating has improved since the February steel tariffs, according to Real Clear Politics.

Chinese equity investors may be in for a rough ride ahead.

https://www.afr.com/markets/markets-are-backing-donald-trump-to-win-trade-war-20180627-h11x04

Other articles on this issue:

http://nationalinterest.org/feature/all-the-reasons-why-trump-can-win-trade-war-china-25094

https://ricochet.com/534777/trump-is-winning-the-trade-war/

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.po...trade-war-for-now-steel-aluminum-tariffs/amp/

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.newsweek.com/china-trade-trump-war-economics-steel-xi-jingping-beijing-891775?amp=1

 

[mukk_in]

Seems that way. The Chinese have certainly blinked and can't match the US tariffs dollar for dollar. They may think of other ways to retaliate, but the President seems to have won this round .

 

[dqhall]

Much depends on how President Trump and the communists in Beijing play the next round in the trade war game. According to calculations by Goldman Sachs, if the full scope of Trump's proposed protectionism is implemented, it would raise the total amount of goods subject to tariffs to nearly $800 billion. Or about four times the cumulative amount proposed just a few months ago.

China appears more vulnerable, with Societe Generale economists estimating that the Chinese economy could lose 1 percentage point of GDP growth and upwards of four million jobs while the U.S. would suffer a modest 0.2 percentage point drag on GDP growth.

According to a report by the AP, Ningbo Top East Technology, which makes soldering irons south of Shanghai, has suffered upwards of a 50 percent drop in U.S.-bound orders, which used to make up roughly a third of its total order book. The problem is that the company is asking customers to split the cost of the tariff hike. But few are willing.

Another wrinkle to the China trade war story is a Reuters report that the European Union flatly rejected a proposal by Beijing to form a strategic alliance to take on the U.S. on trade. This is possibly because Europe knows deep down that China's mercantilism is real -- and that they have been guilty of similar behavior in the past.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.cb...ident-trump-already-winning-the-tariff-fight/

China has more to lose economically in an all-out trade war. The Chinese economy is dependent on exports, and nearly 20 percent of its exports go to the United States. It sold $506 billion in stuff and services to the United States last year. In contrast, the United States sold $130 billion to the Chinese.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.wa...-in-a-trade-war-but-trump-has-a-key-weakness/

Four separate sources working for Chinese media, who were briefed on these internal instructions, told the South China Morning Post that they were told not to “over-report” the trade war with US and be extremely careful about linking the trade war to stock market falls, the depreciation of the yuan or economic weakness to avoid spreading panic.

“When you report a fall in the stock market index or a weakening in the yuan’s exchange rate, you can’t use ‘trade war’ in your headline,” one source with an official Chinese media outlet, who declined to be named, said.

Beijing is taking a softer approach to deal with the U.S. compared with its previous tactic of making public attacks and launching popular boycotts, which has been used against Japan, South Korea and the Philippines in the past.

China has already told its media to tone down its coverage of Made in China 2025 — a plan to boost its hi-tech sector that has frequently been criticized by the U.S. — and to shun personal attacks on Trump in the hope of de-escalating the situation.

https://www.politico.com/story/2018/07/15/china-trade-war-trump-722242

So will the U.S. beat China in this battle? Yes, says storied investor Mark Mobius for our call of the day.

“I think at the end of the day, the U.S. is going to win this one, because the U.S. is the biggest importer in the world, and China needs the U.S.,” he told CNBC in an interview late yesterday.

What would victory look like in this case?

“Winning means getting some concessions and a reduction in the trade deficit,” Mobius says.

President Donald Trump is right to view the huge trade gap with China as a problem, according to the former Templeton star manager.

“I agree with him completely,” Mobius says, referring to Trump. “The U.S. has been taken for a ride — let’s face it — over the last 20 or 30 years. It’s time to start saying, ‘Look, there has to be some reciprocity between these two countries, because it’s just crazy to have this kind of deficit.’”

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.marketwatch.com/amp/story/guid/6E193068-7E95-11E8-8A55-5CB0E0C02B8A

President Donald Trump is beating China in a trade war that could soon escalate, CNBC’s Jim Cramer said on Friday.

“I think we're winning," the "Mad Money" host argued. "The market is saying we're winning.”

Look no further than the stock market for confirmation that the U.S. is getting the best of China on trade, he said.

The S&P 500 on Friday hit a four-month high after rallying nearly 1 percent in the prior session. The strong Thursday also saw the Nasdaq close at a record high. The S&P 500, Nasdaq and the Dow Jones Industrial Average were also tracking for their second straight week of gains.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.cn...ade-war-and-the-stock-market-confirms-it.html

Wall Street trader and Sarge986 President Stephen Guilfoyle said President Trump's trade policies have China "by the short hairs" and "right where we want them" in the bid to win any impending trade wars.

Guilfoyle said on Your World that "we've got a pretty hot economy" and that China is struggling in comparison.

https://www.google.com/amp/insider.foxnews.com/amp/article/62360

As trade tensions continue, Mohamed El-Erian told CNBC that the U.S. is winning the trade war.

"In relative terms, we are winning and we will win the trade war," El-Erian, chief economic advisor at Allianz, said Monday on "Fast Money." El-Erian is considered one of the most influential financial market thinkers in the world.

"Just look at the performance of U.S. markets relative to China and relative to others," said El-Erian, who was CEO of Pimco. "That is consistent."

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.cn...ning-the-trade-war-says-mohamed-el-erian.html

Higher US rates and the stronger greenback – which is up 6 per cent since mid-April, based on Thomson Reuter's trade-weighted index – is causing some angst that Chinese businesses that have borrowed heavily in dollars may struggle to service their debt, and ultimately may not be able to repay of refinance their obligations.

American voters appear to similarly be on-board with their president pushing China on trade – his approval rating has improved since the February steel tariffs, according to Real Clear Politics.

Chinese equity investors may be in for a rough ride ahead.

https://www.afr.com/markets/markets-are-backing-donald-trump-to-win-trade-war-20180627-h11x04

Nixon imposed 10% tariffs on all imports. He tried a wage and price freeze. In 1974 America was in a recession with 9% unemployment and the prime rate reached 11.75% in October. Nixon resigned in 1974.

https://www.thebalance.com/president-richard-m-nixon-s-economic-policies-3305562

I am not sure who wins a trade war, but consumers may suffer. A free market theorist finds tariffs reduce global economic efficiency. A tariff is another big government tax.

The Chinese economy has been growing much faster than the United States economy for some time. China has a declining birth rate. The US population is growing.

 

[Zoii]

You guys are carrying on like its some sort of game. Its not just China that has tarrifs imposed but the entire world. Those other nations, like China, will buy elsewhere. When you talk of winning like yayyyyy USA USA - childish and negative

 

[Apologetic_Warrior]

All I know is, here lately, I've been spending a fair amount of personal cash with sellers in China. It is simply a matter of economics for me. The official USA releases of virtually the same item are in most instances three or more times the price. The value for the amount of money is much higher with the Chinese releases, and quite honestly I would not be surprised if the items came from the same factories. The problem in this instance is the markup by American retailers, decided by I have no clue. The problem is the notion that Americans as a whole are so much more wealthy that we can afford higher prices, so hey let's pump all the cash we can out of these gullible idiots. So what happens is the people with the most money drain the limited and short supply and sell them for even higher inflated prices to a collector's market, raking in even more cash, and any collector that spends much time with eBay can see this very common practice. It disgusts me how limited and short the supply is for so many items these days. Does not even seem to matter how great the demand is, these companies just want to cash in quick for as much as possible taking little to no risk.

 

[Yekcidmij]

It looks like the Yuan has depreciated a little over 8% since the tariff spat with China started. Tariffs won't work if the exchange rate adjusts.

I doubt the tariffs will have the intended effects.

https://www.nber.org/papers/w23427

https://www.imf.org/~/media/Files/Publications/WP/2017/wp17151.ashx

 

[Yekcidmij]

This is what Republican's used to believe:

 

[Yekcidmij]

I thought the tariffs were supposed to be great? So why do taxpayers have to pay for them?

http://thehill.com/policy/finance/3...o-announce-help-for-farms-hard-hit-by-tariffs


https://www.wsj.com/articles/trump-says-tariffs-are-the-greatest-1532437480

 

[Yekcidmij]

It looks like the Yuan has depreciated a little over 8% since the tariff spat with China started. Tariffs won't work if the exchange rate adjusts.

What's interesting about this is that since June the USD/CNH exchange rate has adjusted to the point where the tariffs may have little to no actual, intended effect on the balance of payments.

 

[Logic Over Emotionalism]

Amid a U.S.-China trade war, the two major stock indexes in China have lost one-quarter of their value from highs this year.

Meanwhile, the U.S.-benchmark, the S&P 500, is inches away from setting a record and in three weeks will post the longest bull market in its history.

This would seemingly give Donald Trump an upper hand has he maneuvers the trade fight. You can bet that if the U.S. stock market was suffering like that, the president would feel the pressure.

https://www.cnbc.com/amp/2018/08/06...lunge-will-not-end-its-trade-war-with-us.html

 

[Yekcidmij]

Amid a U.S.-China trade war, the two major stock indexes in China have lost one-quarter of their value from highs this year.

Meanwhile, the U.S.-benchmark, the S&P 500, is inches away from setting a record and in three weeks will post the longest bull market in its history.

This would seemingly give Donald Trump an upper hand has he maneuvers the trade fight. You can bet that if the U.S. stock market was suffering like that, the president would feel the pressure.

https://www.cnbc.com/amp/2018/08/06...lunge-will-not-end-its-trade-war-with-us.html

Good points. Additionally, the Yuan continues to depreciate even though China has made moves to try to stop it's depreciation (contrary to what common narratives say about them and their currency). This seems to indicate to me a few things:

1) China is feeling more economic pain from this.
2) The exchange rate adjustments mean the tariffs will probably not have the intended effects.

I also would be slow to say that Trump is ahead or "winning" since this continues to play out. It's definitely harming downstream producers, consumers and producers subject to counter tariffs. So there is an economic price being paid, regardless of what the S&P does.

The political price may be minimal, or it could cost him later politically.

 

[joshua 1 9]

Still we have a bottom line that there is often only a 15% advantage to building your factory in China. For me we should build here in America and pay the extra 15%. If trump wants to collect 20% tariffs or taxes at the boarder that is fine with me. Better then Obama that wants people to do a LOT of paper work or pay taxes on gross income. Trump encourages people to work because they have to pay the tariffs if they work or not. Under Obama people were discouraged from working because of the tax burden.

Is this really the issue though? Today we have improved robotics so really we need workers that can program the robots to do their work for them. Machines have always been difficult to set up. I think there is going to be a trend to bring jobs back to American because we have a better education system here then they have in china and it is a lot easier to train people to program the machines here in America.

 

[Yekcidmij]

For me we should build here in America and pay the extra 15%.

Why should you make this decision for everyone else?

If trump wants to collect 20% tariffs or taxes at the boarder that is fine with me.

Why should that be fine with everyone else?

 

[FireDragon76]

Is this really the issue though? Today we have improved robotics so really we need workers that can program the robots to do their work for them. Machines have always been difficult to set up. I think there is going to be a trend to bring jobs back to American because we have a better education system here then they have in china and it is a lot easier to train people to program the machines here in America.

Do you seriously think Chinese people are stupider than Americans?

Automation does not create jobs.

 

[Logic Over Emotionalism]

I also would be slow to say that Trump is ahead or "winning" since this continues to play out. It's definitely harming downstream producers, consumers and producers subject to counter tariffs. So there is an economic price being paid, regardless of what the S&P does.

The political price may be minimal, or it could cost him later politically.

I personally never claimed Trump is winning as this entire thread I have used stuff from the articles I have provided. But in my personal views I do believe we are winning for the moment being but I do believe we will have to wait to see how things fall in place.

 

[Logic Over Emotionalism]

The US will impose a 25% tariff on another $16 billion worth of Chinese goods starting August 23, US Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer announced Tuesday.

The new set of measures are the second tranche of tariffs that President Donald Trump originally announced in March, following tariffs imposed on $34 billion worth of Chinese imports that went into effect in early July. It represents the latest salvo in the ever-expanding trade war between the US and China.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.bu...-tariffs-china-trade-war-chinese-goods-2018-8

 

[joshua 1 9]

Do you seriously think Chinese people are stupider than Americans?

American are for the most part better educated by our public education system. People with money can afford to give their children a good education in China.

 

[FireDragon76]

American are for the most part better educated by our public education system. People with money can afford to give their children a good education in China.

In Shanghai, Chinese students rank significantly higher than American students in reading, math and science skills. Considering that the Chinese written language is harder to learn in some ways, the superior reading ability of Chinese students is impressive.

https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/china-debuts-top-international-education-rankings/story?id=12336108

 

[Yekcidmij]

I personally never claimed Trump is winning as this entire thread I have used stuff from the articles I have provided. But in my personal views I do believe we are winning for the moment being but I do believe we will have to wait to see how things fall in place.

I'm not sure those Americans paying the price for the tariffs believe they're winning. But they probably don't matter....

 

[joshua 1 9]

Much depends on how President Trump and the communists in Beijing play the next round in the trade war game.

At least this is a lot less messy then the war USA fought with Communism in Viet Nam.